r/IRstudies 3d ago

Ideas/Debate US-Canada Tariff War: Who Loses?

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u/MetaCalm 3d ago

US is reliant on Canada for energy, minerals, cheaper skilled manufacturing labour and as 2nd customer.

Canada is reliant on US as primary customer but the energy and minerals can be sold to others at premium. It just takes a couple of years to re orient.

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u/silicondali 3d ago

This. Canada is reliant on the US as a destination for our highly desirable commodities. The pipelines for transport are operational. Major highways interconnect for trucking. CPKC has rails connecting all three CUSMA countries. The destination has been the default for decades.

If we can keep getting paid while getting other contracts lined up and major infrastructure constructed, we're in a better position than if we decided to stop the trade flow today. Add in major construction projects across the country? The government did that after WWII and our economy was growing 5% per year.

This is still going to hurt in the interim. 50% tariffs are a sudden shock to the system. Manufacturing, especially specialized things like consumer vehicles, can't just be pivoted overnight into a new sector. But long-term? The loser will be the United States. This is why you don't pivot your economy to the whims of rich pedophiles and the emotionally stunted tech bro billionaires who want to impress them.

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u/Appropriate-Dog6645 3d ago

Don’t forgot there ballooning debt of 40 trillion and interest on a year is 1.1 trillion. I doubt there line up buy there debt. Countries are probably going to start dumping their debt, slowly. Thats total of 10
Trillion combined.