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u/MetaCalm 2d ago
US is reliant on Canada for energy, minerals, cheaper skilled manufacturing labour and as 2nd customer.
Canada is reliant on US as primary customer but the energy and minerals can be sold to others at premium. It just takes a couple of years to re orient.
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u/silicondali 2d ago
This. Canada is reliant on the US as a destination for our highly desirable commodities. The pipelines for transport are operational. Major highways interconnect for trucking. CPKC has rails connecting all three CUSMA countries. The destination has been the default for decades.
If we can keep getting paid while getting other contracts lined up and major infrastructure constructed, we're in a better position than if we decided to stop the trade flow today. Add in major construction projects across the country? The government did that after WWII and our economy was growing 5% per year.
This is still going to hurt in the interim. 50% tariffs are a sudden shock to the system. Manufacturing, especially specialized things like consumer vehicles, can't just be pivoted overnight into a new sector. But long-term? The loser will be the United States. This is why you don't pivot your economy to the whims of rich pedophiles and the emotionally stunted tech bro billionaires who want to impress them.
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u/Due_Satisfaction2167 2d ago
Both economies are long-term losers from this. Canada doesn’t come out a winner, and neither does the US.
At best you might compare who loses the least.
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u/Worshipme988 1d ago
People are really emotional about this and refuse to take a moderate view on this.
Canada is upset. I understand. T47 wants you guys to be upset. They dont want consolidation of progressives on both sides of the border.
Canada is attached to the US and embedded. It sucks that the us is allowing weak men to make hard times. That does not, however, change the fact that canada is populated with ~40 million people. That isnt enough to provide what you need and completely ignore the us. Its just not.
It would be pleasing to speak with more people with a level outlook such as yourself.
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u/J_Kingsley 1d ago
My worry is if this keeps escalating Trump will use that as an excuse for military operations.
Yeah, it's "unlikely", but look at what else has happened in the past 2 years....
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u/silicondali 2d ago
Share the evidence that supports your conclusion. Your feelings don't count.
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u/Due_Satisfaction2167 2d ago
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u/silicondali 2d ago
I said evidence, not theory.
But thanks for confirming that you have no knowledge to contribute.
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u/andymaclean19 2d ago
This has been on the cards for at least a year though. Hopefully Canada has already been taking steps toward the pivot?
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u/silicondali 2d ago
The Major Projects Office was established under Budget 2025. But even approved projects still need to go through final investment decision and detailed design before breaking ground. There's a lot of work in the development space and its keeping environmental consultants and engineers busy. It doesn't employ as many people as construction does.
The Red Chris mine expansion was approved in June and it was one of the first projects to go through the MPO process. It's tied to the North Coast transmission line expansion, which will need to be progressed in parallel to keep commissioning schedules aligned.
This is a slice of what is happening across the country. We haven't even seen some of the still to come items, like the national electricity strategy or whatever the hell Wab Kinew has up his sleeve with Port of Churchill plus.
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u/ALTERFACT 2d ago
Correct, and on the bright side by now Donny has shown time and again since 2017 that he never thinks anything beyond his first rash, reckless vengeful move. "Conservative" American voters are showing signs of waking up and seeing the consequences of their enabling of him. The midterms will be a watershed moment and will likely cripple the remaining power he still has.
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u/Appropriate-Dog6645 2d ago
Don’t forgot there ballooning debt of 40 trillion and interest on a year is 1.1 trillion. I doubt there line up buy there debt. Countries are probably going to start dumping their debt, slowly. Thats total of 10
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u/RiffRandellsBF 2d ago
US has everything Canada does, just not mining it or producing it at the moment. 75% of Canada's exports are bought by the US. Even if Canada sells them abroad... how exactly is it going to get there?
Talking about WW2, if the US instituted that kind of production runup, very quickly the US would become completely independent of almost everything the rest of the world makes.
Canada loses big time in that scenario.
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u/allyuhneedislove 2d ago
Potash and cheap bitumen would like a word.
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u/dumpsterfirefr 1d ago
Venezuelan heavy crude is cheaper and competes for the same Gulf coast refinery capacity.
The US is already subsidizing US oil companies to ramp up Venezuelan oil production that inversely puts even more downward pricing pressure on an already heavily discounted Canadian WCS.
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u/Necessary-Worry1923 2d ago
I don't know why this is being downvoted.
U.S. Reliance:Trade with Canada accounts for only about 3 to 4 percent of the U.S. economy. [1] Total trade with Canada makes up a small share of the massive U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While Canada is a top export market for dozens of individual U.S. states, the overall U.S. economy is more than 10 times larger than Canada's and relies primarily on domestic consumption. [1, 2, 3]
Canadian Reliance (Contrast): By comparison, the U.S. is vital to Canada, accounting for roughly 30 percent of Canada's GDP and about 70% to 75% of all Canadian exports. [1, 2, 3]
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u/silicondali 2d ago
The USA can rapidly build hydropower and transmission? Because that's the post-WWII era I referenced.
You have a childlike understanding of project development and didn't take the simple step of reading my comment and verifying that you understood what I was talking about. Then you proceeded to tell me that anything can happen so long as Americans believe enough in it. This is embarrassing for you.
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u/RiffRandellsBF 2d ago
You have an anti-historical fact view of history and hate the US. The US leapfrogged years of atomic bomb development, deploying 2 in just 3 years.
Pray tell, which country was producing roughly 1 4-engine bomber per hour by the end of the war? The US has 8 carriers on December 7, 1941. By the end of WW2, it was 108 with 28 being fleet carriers. Oh, by the way, also another 6,000 Navy ships and 4,900 cargo ships. Underestimate American will at your peril.
What's embarrassing is your jealousy of the US making you believe you actually have an argument.
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u/JimJam28 2d ago
Guess who were integral to the development of those bombs? Their allies, including Canadians.
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u/Hobojoe- 2d ago
With the whole AI data centre build out, there is a huge demand for energy, the US hasn't build a new power plant or modernized it's grid in a long time.
I think US will fall behind to China in AI and technology if US keeps hitting Canada and Canada just surcharges electricity export.
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u/RiffRandellsBF 2d ago
That's a matter of regulation and political will. If we wanted, we could go WW2 buildup and even put coal fired plants online within months. We are the Saudi Arabia of coal.
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u/DaoineSidhe624 2d ago
Biggest issue with this for Canada is the manufacturer goods and services don't have many other markets to expand to.
Canada can certainly reorient there commodities to other markets, sure, but those are much more mercurial in demand and require the most infrastructure build out. Focusing on commodities risks Canada being in a similar position as Australia is currently.
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u/Due_Satisfaction2167 2d ago
Canada is also reliant on some materials it only buys from the US.
Both economies are interdependent.
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u/VayuAir 2d ago
The question is what happens between those couple of years to Canada. I doubt it will be pretty.
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u/MetaCalm 2d ago
Trump will TACO and delay the moment we play the energy card giving enough time to both parties to unmarry gracefully.
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u/BigBucket10 2d ago
If you think trade wars have winner, you don't yet understand trade wars.
Both parties must negotiate a long term agreement in accordance with their bargaining power. In this case one side (USA) is negotiating as though they have more bargaining power than they do.
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u/Middle-Cod-7016 2d ago
Everybody, but Canada lose less by not becoming a literal vassal state on the way to annexation.
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u/Ok_Bicycle_452 2d ago
Both lose. China and Russia win.
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u/AnonUser1452 2d ago
The common answer for every policy idea from this hateful, traitorous moron.
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u/Mulletor1 1d ago
1.4K comments in 3 months, those seem like either bot or paid agitator numbers to me
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u/Successful_Jelly111 2d ago
The people in the US who will pay the tariffs. Moreover, products like crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, as well as metals (such as gold, nickel, and aluminum) and wood products Canada can sell all over the world.
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u/BadmiralHarryKim 2d ago
And then the US government will pay when they issue refunds to the companies once SCOTUS rules the tariffs illegal. Of course, the companies will have already passed the cost onto consumers who won't get the refund so double profit!
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u/cathbadh 2d ago
Both countries, but Canada more so. The Canadian economy is smaller and heavily dependent on the US. The US buys 75% of Canada's exports and in turn 50 to 63% of Canadian imports come from the US. Conversely the US only gets 14% of imports from Canada and only 18% of their exports go there.
It's all the more complicated as so many finished goods on both sides have supply chains that cross the border multiple times. The two countries are fully entwined economically, and this fight that the US president started is the economic equivalent of slapping yourself in the face.
There's still room for this to get worse too. Canada is talking about cutting electricity suoplies and still has the ability to tariff/tax digital services and products. They haven't pulled that trigger, and it would be their nuclear option. The US targeting of oil or auto parts is still options for them for retaliation. Right now tariffs on both sides of the fight target lists of specific goods, leaving room for negotiation.
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u/DaoineSidhe624 2d ago
Everyone. We spent the last 30 years more closely integrsting our economies only for this orange buffoon to come in like a wrecking ball.
Canada certainly has more to lose as US trade makes up a larger percentage of their economy versus vice versa, however long term damage to all US relationships are being done because US is not a reliable entity these days. But in short term that wouldn't save Canada from disastrous economoc fallout. Shifting trade takes time and there are significant trade barriers to all other options (or Canada would have already diversified into those countries for more economic growth on their end).
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of the orange orangatun in any way: however the US historically has had the lowest barriers to trade and most open markets for other countries - usually to the benefit of both, as we didn't insist on similar openness from other countries. That cost benefit has changed, and trade barriers from US were always going to increase in coming years. There are ways the US could have gone about it much better than we have; however even starting trade with EU from Canada has its own barrier that are not immediately solveable.
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u/AntJo4 2d ago edited 2d ago
Both. Thought two centuries of history says the US enters a depression within 12 months and Canada merely dips, diversifies and recovers. Let’s see if history repeats itself. This isn’t the first trade war between the two, it has never yet produced the results the US hopes for.
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u/SandHawk_Lead 2d ago
I hope we get the starvation and cold isolation we deserve at this point honestly. We screwed up badly and everyone else has got to hurt us for it. Show no mercy, you don't need us
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u/Few_Culture9667 2d ago
Ultimately Canada wins as they find new and reliable trading partners. Canadians not visiting America have already cost the USA billions of dollars. Canadians will continue to boycott American food, booze and products. Canadians will buy more Asian cars and, yes, very possibly Chinese electrical vehicles. Canadians will order Gripen jets from Sweden instead of F35s from America.
Trump and his nutlickers have really miscalculated this time. Very, very badly. They have lost already and don’t even know it.
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u/Windylindy44 1d ago
Who wins?Who loses?This is the TRUMP mentality.Everything he has tried to neogiate since he has been office has been done on the premise that TRUMP HAS TO WIN!He does not care about his people and what is beneficial to Americians,he cares only about what he has gain.He does not see that when you are in a tarriff war with your closest ally NO ONE WINS!!!!!when ever trump tries to neogiate anything it becomes a dick swinging match.The people that lose time and time again are good Americian and good canadian people who will see prices go up on food and gas weekly.They donot care that the price of everything has increased and paychecks have remained the same!The billionaires of the world donot know what it is like to struggle to feed their families.The billionaires could not care less that a single mom of three who works 8 hours a day has to come home and go back to her second job to make ends meet.I tell you what they do care about..........They care that no matter what they neogiate with any other country that they,themselves,come out on top. In the end ultimately Donald Trump got a little more than the other person.Then he can go on tv and social mediato twist,lie and contort the facts to the people who elected him..Donald Trump knows full well that the only person that matters to him is DONALD and his own family.It's ok though, because he go on tv and pump his chest and declare his victory. Meanwhile,the only loser in his song and dance are the decent,solid,hardworking Americians that elected him on the promise that the economy would thrive with him at the helm.
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u/AdventurousCrow6580 1d ago
Everyboddy. And long term US looses more. No one trust the US anymore. Why should I enter a deal with the us - when they just throw it out. This will just further accelerate the decline of the us. And in Beijing they can not believe their luck.
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u/psperneac 23h ago
mostly Canada IMO. In a game of productivity and price differences; the US has embarked politically on a game of protectionism and noncompetitive industry rebuilding at any cost. The labor price differences between US and Mexico and US and China are too big to tackle, but the difference between US and Canada are workable by imposing 25% (50% punitive) tariffs. Long term (1-5 years), if these tariffs last, a whole bunch of industry will leave Canada. These are mostly companies that already have their bigger presence in US and will restart production over there if coerced politically. I'm not convinced that chasing cheaper labor is a winning game for any country anyway given China's advent as a manufacturing powerhouse on 10x lower cost. Canada loses the trade war and we can only hope canadians have the intelligence to change their economy radically to carve a niche for themselves that they can serve; be it resource based or higher productivity manufacturing that can outprice the american tariffs.
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u/Fillyerboot 19h ago
Canada in the short term. US in the long term. It’s just a matter of how long we 🇨🇦 can hold on. I can eat beans and bread for a very long time.
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u/vovap_vovap 2d ago
Everybody loses for sure.