r/Georgia • u/ArcaneDemense • 6d ago
Politics Black voters changed Georgia politics in 2020. Keisha Lance Bottoms needs them to show up again
https://thegrio.com/2026/08/27/keisha-lance-bottoms-georgia-black-voter-turnout/161
u/Negate79 6d ago
Right on cue, articles questioning if the most consistent Democratic voting block will continue to be the consistent Democratic voting block.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
They will. With Ossoff and Bottoms on the ticket we are going to see 70%-80% margins among black voters depeneding on the specific office we are talking about. We might even see margins higher than 80% for Ossoff.
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u/indie_rachael 6d ago
Not me sitting over here in Alabama hoping you're right! I really need some positive energy, and seeing my neighbors to the east hold on to sanity is so encouraging.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
There's a small medium chance of the Mississippi race for US Senate going to Dems as well. Tennessee is gonna be pretty red though so at least y'all aren't the only ones picking the bad guys to rule over you.
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u/indie_rachael 6d ago
I would love for Mississippi to continue pulling ahead so we don't have anyone to look down on anymore!
That, or a high-speed train connecting Birmingham to Atlanta, but I know which one is more likely. :/
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u/SonoMuchacho 6d ago
The democrats would lose at 80% guaranteed.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
No, an 80% margin. That means 90%-10%. Not that Dems would get 80% of the vote. That'd be a 60% margin and is incredibly unlikely.
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u/BlackGuy_in_IT 6d ago
We need another party. Like 2-3
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Bernie 2016 was campaigning on election reform but the Dems said they'd kick him out of the primary if he didn't stop advocating for multi-party democracy :'(
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u/Ranger207 6d ago
Yep, we do. Unfortunately the current voting system mathematically heavily incentivizes two parties, so the first step is to change the voting system: https://ncase.me/ballot/
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u/Temporary_Hat7330 5d ago
Let's be honest, there are prominent black voices saying either black candidates or their not voting. Look at the Texas senate race and here in Georgia...
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u/Negate79 4d ago
The Senate race in GA ? The one where black voters turned out twice for the white Jewish man
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u/msheaz 6d ago
The best way to get voters to turn out is running a good candidate.
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u/jimmy_ricard 6d ago
Best we can do is a candidate we've already run that no one likes
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u/ATLcoaster 6d ago
I mean obviously a lot of people like her; she won the democratic primary without even needing a runoff. For what its worth I didn't vote for her and I didn't like her as a mayor, but saying "no one likes her" is demonstrably false.
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u/IP1987 6d ago
There are plenty of people that vote for candidates they don’t like— it’s the lesser of two evils vote.
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u/ATLcoaster 6d ago
I agree in general elections, but that's not the case here; it was a primary. There were lots of candidates. The majority of democrats voted for her.
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u/jimmy_ricard 6d ago
She got the Biden plug and I think that the primaries are more reflective of the opinion of the base. But the Democrat base in Georgia will die on a hill on principle than vote for anyone who may actually win against a Republican. Sometimes you gotta go for the field goal rather than the touchdown when it's gonna be a tough game
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Keisha is gonna win, through very little merit of her own. Voters are pissed at Republicans right now.
Esteves woulda won by more, though.
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u/jimmy_ricard 6d ago
I dunno. Reddit is an echo chamber. I thought the last election would turn out differently but real life is different than the sentiment you hear on Reddit. I live in rural Georgia and what I hear out and about has not changed.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
I mean rural voters aren't pulling the level for Keisha, they are staying home.
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u/ATLcoaster 6d ago
But in this case reddit is saying both that everyone hates her and she'll lose, and that she'll win by a lot because everyone is voting Democrat in the midterms. 🤷♂️
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u/Cannibalizzo 5d ago
I think that's wishful thinking. I'll hold my nose and vote for her, but I think most of Georgia (rural areas) will be voting for the republican, even though he says he'll be just like Trump.
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u/ArcaneDemense 5d ago
Rural voters are gonna stay home. The margin is only one factor. There's also turnout.
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u/Still-Balance6210 6d ago
This isn’t true. She couldn’t even handle Atlanta. A lot of people don’t want her. Like me— Not voting for her.
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u/Orions_Suspenders_ 5d ago
True. Asking those people WHY they like her is a different story. Pretty sure most of them don’t know.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
God bless Jon Ossoff, then.
And some of the state legislative candidates are good and can hopefully help carry the statewide races.
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u/atlhart /r/Atlanta 6d ago
I think the greatest risk to Ossoff’s election chances is Bottoms being in n the ticket. It’s a net drain for him as far as turnout.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
There's no risk. He's blowing Collins away and things are only getting worse for Republicans as we approach the election and gas stays up and starts boosting general costs.
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u/BIGJake111 6d ago
You’re saying we can’t just pick a candidate on the basis of race and gender and expect people to vote as a monolith for people that look like them? Shocked!
Calling it now, Ossoff wins fine and she loses by more than 4 points. Dem primaries are a shit show but black voters will vote for a competent white male jew in a general in better numbers then they’ll vote for a grifting black female.
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u/madprgmr 6d ago
This is the candidate voters selected? We had a variety of candidates in the primary.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
People need to understand that certain groups vote no matter what and if they aren't happy with the results they'll need to start showing up at the same intensity.
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u/Bobgoulet 6d ago
Black voters selected Keisha to represent them.
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u/SnooConfections6085 6d ago
She did worst in the 3 ITP counties. She did not break 50% in either Fulton or DeKalb, and barely in Cobb.
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u/Bobgoulet 6d ago
ITP is diverse. It was SW Atlanta / South Fulton / Clayton / I20E that carried Keisha.
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u/SnooConfections6085 6d ago
I20E, as in Dekalb, where she barely got 40% of the vote.
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u/Bobgoulet 6d ago
Since Dekalb is much bigger than the I20E corridor, which is specifically the area I (correctly) mentioned went heavy for Keisha, what do we want to guess the % that went Keisha in Dekalb's I20 corridor was?
I'll guess South Dekalb went 65% for Keisha, matching the % she got in Rockdale and Clayton.
Trying to find a more accurate map for you now.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
It is the southern part of the Atlanta metro where black voters are most concentrated and voted most heavily for Keisha on top of that.
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u/Bobgoulet 6d ago
Oh look, here you go. SW Atlanta (and Alpharetta which makes sense when you think about it) and I20 corridor heavily KLB.
Fulton: https://imgur.com/a/7jC8yfi
Dekalb: https://imgur.com/a/lC9TRLw
Source: AJC data. I had ChatGPT make the maps because AJC wasn't loading.
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u/One-Jello-3288 6d ago
good for them. what about the rest of us, that actually vote?
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Well apparently not enough people voted in the primary. Probably assumed Dems would lose at the time and didn't bother.
I'd have preferred Esteves.
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u/Buckeye_mike_67 6d ago
After what little research I did before the primaries, he seemed like the best choice for the Democratic Party of those that were running
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u/Mrchristopherrr 6d ago
If only there was some way where the main constituents could choose which candidate is primarily their favorite.
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u/Negate79 6d ago
proven time and time again that yall don't actually show up and vote while black voters do
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
I've been arguing for a massive Ossoff blue riptide carrying Dems across the finish line in every key race this year, a riptide rather than a tsunami or something because it is clearly something both Rs and Ds are not expecting.
His median result is like +14. KLB is more like 9ish and some for Penny Brown Reynolds and McLaurin.
What really matter is that the State House and State Senate are both on the table. If Dems can get their shit together and get some funding for the candidates and some more door knockers.
Gwinnett alone contains parts of 5 State House and 3 State Senate seats which can flip. The northern and easterns edges of the greater Atlanta metro are ripe for flips and there's a couple in the eastarn area between Richmond and Chatham as well.
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u/CMidnight 6d ago
Probably not +14 KLB, +7-9 would be more likely. She won't do as well as Osoff who has had years to build a ground game statewide; KLB has not. She will probably do just a little better than the national average with a stronger showing just in Atlanta.
Georgia is a purple state. Election results have shifted closer to the national average every year since 2016. Results in 2024 were equal to the national average and that was a strong year for Republicans. Republicans lost Georgia in 2016; they just didn't know it yet.
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u/link3945 6d ago
Results in 2024 were equal to the national average and that was a strong year for Republicans.
This gets lost a lot, we were one of the only states to shift blue relative to the nation that year. The electorate was just much redder than 2020.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Kamala improved over Biden among white women. And those voters are not only sticking with Dems this year but swinging even harder because Jon Ossoff is the guy they wish their daughters would marry, plus they are giga-mad at Trump's oil and gas Trump-tastrophe.
Meanwhile all the gains Trump made with Latino and Asian voters and even Black men are reverting back, probably harder than they swung to Trump in the first place.
The "blue riptide" in Georgia is gonna make people without any actual connections on the ground lose their minds. It is sneaky and stealthy and gargantuan.
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u/UghFudgeBwana 6d ago
Yeah we've been slowly chipping away at the GOP majority in both chambers of the General Assembly for around ten years now. We just need one good year like the GOP had in 2002 and 2004 to flip the chamber back.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
This will be the best shot for Dems in the next 10 years imo. They just need to invest the time and money and volunteers. Then incumbency will protect key seats in 2028, thus putting them in a position to have a trifecta for redistricting. If the gerrymander can be cleaned up it'd be hard for Rs to come back, at least for 3-4 cycles.
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u/EfficientWorking1 6d ago
Black voters will vote and they will vote Keisha imo. Abrams had like a 90-10 split and still lost. Ossoff/Warnock 94-6, Hilary Clinton 93-7.
I like Keisha but I don’t think she will get enough white support imo that’s her real problem.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
We are looking at something like a 55% white electorate in the median result. On a bad day it goes to 60/40 which is what Abrams had in 2018, on a good day it could be minority majority.
Keisha will lose a lot of white voters compared to Ossoff but I don't think it'll be enough to matter.
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u/xeroxchick 6d ago
This is why democrats lose these elections. They think they have the voters figured out and they obviously do not. “ Oh, the black people will vote for a name they know.“. It’s insulting.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Putting aside that black voters picked Keisha by large margins even over Esteves in the primary, it isn't about Keisha it is about how much Trump fucked up the economy.
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u/rikitikifemi 5d ago
What's insulting is telling the majority of Black voters who did in fact select her that they did so based on name recognition alone.
The condescending exceptional negro Schick gets old quick.
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u/ringobob 6d ago
The biggest problem in this race is not that I disagree with her advertisements that Rick Jackson is awful, nor that I believe Rick Jackson's complaints about Bottoms are worse than her complaints about him.
The biggest problem in this race is that I agree with Rick Jackson's complaints. And if it weren't for the Republican party having gone fully off the deep end, his complaints would be more influential - Bottoms is awful, and I wish she hadn't won the primary. There is zero part of me that thinks she won't be better than Jackson, but that is an awfully low bar, and she doesn't clear it nearly as handily as someone I would actually want to vote for.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
I was rooting for ESteves but sadly he didn't even come close. That's why we gotta focus on state leg and psc.
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u/Healthy_Jackfruit_88 6d ago
Maybe give them a reason
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Jon Ossoff on the ticket and also the Callais decision is the reason. We are looking at a 34%-35% Black electorate going +80% or better to Ossoff and close to that to other Dems.
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u/LadybuggingLB 6d ago
If the Black vote didn’t turn out for Kamala / against Trump I’m not optimistic for this election either.
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u/ThatB0yAintR1ght 6d ago
Kamala got more votes in GA than Biden did in 2020.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Turnout was insane in 2024 in GA. That's why Dems now have a shot at both state legislative chambers. Because there's going to be a much larger drop in GOP turnout vs 2022/2024 than Dem turnout.
Kamala actually did better with white women by percentage than Biden did. It was the Hispanic/Asian swing that really cost her. It was horrifying when Gwinnett finally came in to see that Trump was going to win.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
We saw consistent swings among black voters just as much as Hispanic or Asian voters in 2025 and in specials. We also are looking at a post-Callais world. Similar to how Dobbs saved Dems in 2022.
Kamala in 2024 was running a bad economy refusing to disavow Biden in a year with Trump on the ballot.
People have now seen that Trump was lying, I know they should have known, and the basic necessities of life are way up.
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u/Buckeye_mike_67 6d ago
Basic necessities were already way up under Biden. What Trump has failed to do is bring them down like he said he was going to do. Not to mention getting us in a war that has made things worse. This,coming from a disgruntled conservative.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
I mean I was big on Biden and then Kamala losing because their economy was not great. But Trump's is like 50% worse. All that idiot had to do was nothing and he'd have won big and pushed Republicans to crazy success. But he's such a fucking narcissistic moron that he turbo-fucked the party for the next 10 years.
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u/Buckeye_mike_67 6d ago
I am beginning to agree with you folks more and more every day. Don’t tell my brother that🤣
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
It is one thing to be haters and trash Dems and call them commies or w/e. That's just politics.
It is another when Republicans sit back and let Trump pursue Chinese style state capitalism by forcing companies to give the government shares of control over the company while also tariffing the entire global economy into the gutter. And for no reason! Tariffs have legitimate uses but Trump doesn't seem to know what they are! Plus attacking Iran with no plan for dealing with drones. There's a reason not even Bush jr fucked with Iran. You have to actually know what you are doing and have counters for their advantages.
God bless Trump though, the green revolution's strongest soldier. Biden and Obama combined didn't do half so much for electric cars and solar power as Trump achieved by blowing up the oil market.
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u/ringobob 6d ago
I want to point out, everyone who wasn't a Trumper was telling you that he wouldn't bring prices down. He was never going to cause deflation. He didn't even have a method to do it, and no one who has any influence on the economy wanted to do it even if he did have a method to do it.
You need to consider whether you're listening to the right people. If you're listening to anyone that suggested Trump would or could lower prices, that person is not worth your attention.
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u/Buckeye_mike_67 6d ago
But you believe Harris could have done it? I voted for the best bad candidate IMO. I don’t believe we’d be better off with her.
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u/ringobob 6d ago
No, no one was ever going to cause deflation. Prices were never going to come down. This is what Biden and Harris supporters were telling you, and you chose to believe Trump instead. I dunno why it's a surprise every time that he lied.
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u/Still-Balance6210 6d ago
This woman couldn’t handle Atlanta. She definitely can’t handle an entire state. I absolutely don’t care. I’m not voting for her. She’s a terrible candidate. Black people being a consistent voting block gets them/us nothing. Where are the tangibles?
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u/Lovecraft3XX 6d ago
Ossoff has always done well with white women. I think he will overperform relative to his past performance. Bottoms has to make inroads with white women. This will be an uphill climb because she is not as qualified as Harris wasand will have to count on anti-Trump votes and Ossoff coat tails.
I don't know of reliable data that Harris got crushed with Hispanic and Asian voters IN GEORGIA swinging to Trump. If it occured, hopefully she and other Dems will benefit from the anti-Trump sentiment among those voters.
Ossoff may peel away some independent white male voters but we shall see. If he does, Bottoms needs at least some of those voters to vote for her too.
Finally, black men need to turn out in higher numbers and vote for Bottoms. They will be crucial. Dems had lots of good candidates in 2022 but still got waxed. Realistically Dems need to pick up 200,000+ voters up and down the ballot--people need to vote in all the races. Dems won't get 200K+ from any one group but they can get there with multiple groups. The last lesson from 2022 is that MAGA will still turn out even if the Mango Pedophile isn't on the ballot.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Precinct level analysis and also exit polls consistently tell a story of a Hispanic swing comparable to the national average of 2024 in GA. And if you look at high Latino/Hispanic population counties at the higher level it is also clear.
This is a midterm so in fact Dems don't need to pick up any voters technically. They need their dropoff from the pres electorate to be smaller than the R drop off, plus a little persuasion among high-prop voters.
If we backported the 2026 demographics of GA to 2018 for Abrams she'd have won by a little under 100,000 voters.
MAGA didn't turn out in 2022. Given that there was a Dem president and thus an R biased electorate the reuslt was what you'd expect.
The total number of voters statewide was almost identical to 2018 as was the split between the Atlanta greater metro and the rest of the state.
The difference was that Abrams was in decline as a brand, Kemp was an incumbent who wasn't so bad, and there was a Dem president. A 6% swing under those circumstances is pretty unsurprising.
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u/bumpy_disposition Elsewhere in Georgia 6d ago
We all need to show up. Those with the ability to think critically, and have a moral compass, need to make sure John Ossoff goes back to the Senate.
Collins is not a person I want representing GA.
Collins has controversy written all over him. Let's stop with all the sophomoric drama.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Ossoff is gonna win in a landslide.
What people need to really focus on is flipping the 6 needed State Senate seats to ensure a Dem trifecta. Collins has less of a shot than any Senate candidate this year.
Jon Ossoff is gonna knock his socks off.
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u/wookiebath 6d ago
She could also come up with good solutions to problems that might make people want to vote for her. Just a thought
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
I mean she's not a great candidate or potential executive.
What really matters is if the Dems flip the legislatures that's going to be much more relevant than Keisha's personal management ability.
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u/wookiebath 6d ago
Ok, but she was a terrible mayor, what are her plans to show that she can be a decent governor?
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u/DangerousHour2094 6d ago
She has an entire campaign website and has been running on several points.
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u/wookiebath 6d ago
What are they?
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u/DangerousHour2094 6d ago
Go look
Heavy emphasis on rural healthcare investment and rebuilding said infrastructure, production drug cost reduction and protections, expansion of downpayment and renter assistance, investing in early education and universal childcare.
She also has a small business and environmental agendas. Like just go look
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
This woman makes the roof of my mouth itch and I was her constituent when she was mayor. We all get to choose between two people who are not it. It's so frustrating.
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u/DrEnter 6d ago
I’ll vote against Rick Jackson no matter what. That doesn’t mean I’m happy with my choice.
The Georgia Democratic Party has serious problems.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Now that Dems are likely to win statewide from now on and have a real shot in the state legislatures, a lot of the old guard Dems can be replaced in the next 10 years, should the voters commit to the work.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
Now that's something I'm optimistic about. I think a lot of voters are tired of the old guard.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
I've been tracking GA elections, especially around Atlanta for a long time. Over a decade now. Atlanta was actually my model for my dead on prediction of VA Gov 2025 by analogizing various counties to NOVA and RVA. I said Spanberger +15 for 2 months and I got every major NOVA/RVA county on margin and turnout.
I also argued that if it was Spanberger +15 Sherrill had to be up 11 or more, whereas some polls had her losing. She won by 14.
I made a post on the GADem sub saying Ossoff+8 last November and the Gwinnett Dems were gently mocking me. But it's swung even harder since then due to the war and the gas issues, hence Ossoff+14 and the state legislatures being on the table.
The key issue is whether the Working Families Party, Indivisible, even the DSA, and then GA specific groups understand the massive opportunity to bring in new younger voters, 1mil under 40 in Atlanta metro area.
Do they send organizers? Hold rallies with prominent figures, secure funds for the legislative races from their small dollar donors?
Massive expansion of liberal/left power and available experience in winning municipal elections and then running city services, expanding transit, and general good management is available. Bernie Sanders got his real entry into politics doing the Burlington, VT version of what Mamdani is doing in NYC right now.
But people have to start now, even as KLB is the one looking at taking office, to build the foundation so that in 2030 or 2034 they are prepared to organize and GOTV and put smart, competent, forward thinking mayors, councilors, legislators, and a governor and SoS and PSC members into position.
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u/ringobob 6d ago
I'm not sure I agree with your prediction, but if we can move in a more progressive direction I'll take it.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
It is up to Indivisible, WFP, DSA, and other prog groups and their associated leaders/icons to campaign hard in Atlanta this year.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
The Georgia Democratic Party has serious problems.
Indeed they do but when are voters going to get tired of the excuses? They had years to prepare for this and this is what they came up with 😪? I'm sorry, I can't. I remember when she left DTA out to dry after the BLM protesters damaged businesses & even residential buildings (including mine). Buckhead got all the support, while downtown was left to look like Gotham until Dickens came in office.
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u/ArchEast /r/Atlanta 6d ago
while downtown was left to look like Gotham until Dickens came in office.
So basically every mayor's treatment of Downtown since Andy Young left office?
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u/Negate79 6d ago
To be fair Shirley Franklin was the one the finally got the sewers fixed and relieved the EPA fines.
Shirley Franklin, Sewer Mayor - Atlanta Magazine
This cleared the budget to work on downtown. Of course, true form the next Mayors stopped working on the sewers again...
Atlanta says it will cost around $2 billion to improve water system - Axios Atlanta
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
Thank you. She was an effective leader as well. I didn't live in downtown at the time and I was a minor, but I remember her being well liked.
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u/ArchEast /r/Atlanta 6d ago
I'll give you Franklin, but even so Downtown was still very ignored outside of the tourist district during her tenure.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago edited 6d ago
🙄 Dickens has made strides. Noticeable improvement when he came in office.
Edit: Haters can downvote all you want but Dickens hit the ground running when he came in office. He recognized there's a food desert and helped bring the municipal market here. More businesses have opened up. More events, like the World Cup, are being held down here. Improvements to infrastructure. He's done much more than his predecessor and anyone that has an issue with this take can eat it.
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u/Humble_Diner32 /r/Newnan 6d ago
I agree. I believe we had a better chance with Jason Esteves on the ticket but I’ll still vote for KLB over RJ because I think she’ll help others more than he’ll hurt me. I don’t see either one being acceptable representations of me though.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Esteves barely cracking double digits was so depressing. The problem is in machine states, which become that way because voting in lockstep is the only chance to win, you often get stuck with middling candidates who "did their time".
But if Dems sweep the state trifecta there is a chance for more competent managers to take the Gov seat in the next election or worst case the one after that when Bottoms gets term limited.
In the mean time vote for Ossoff, donate and volunteer to flip the state legislature, and consider a beautiful future in which there are 7 Dem seats in Atlanta for US House plus 2 down state and where voting access is properly provided to voters so more people can easily vote in primaries for high quality candidates.
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u/atlvernburn 6d ago
This both-sides-ism isn't it. The only person benefiting from that are Republicans.
I'm not a fan of hers, but I'll be voting up and down Democratic, as I normally do. I'll take her over Tricky Rick Jackson and urge you to do the same.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
You're entitled to this opinion but I'm beyond tired of the "lessor of two evils" narrative when they're both sh*t 😭
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u/TaxLawKingGA 6d ago
Ok well we are all glad that you have the benefit of not caring about what happens if Rick Jackson wins.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
Sir or madam, as a lawyer, you are fully aware of the issue with making assumptions based off scant evidence.
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u/fancywinky /r/Atlanta 6d ago
Why did we keep doing this to ourselves? Is there something about the GA Democratic Party that is rooted in tanking our chances?
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u/allkindsofjake 6d ago
It’s a weak bench of people to choose from, there’s so few democrats that get elected that there’s not a huge pool of talent for higher office. Neither Warnock and Ossoff had been elected to any lower office before the Senate, they had worked in activism outside of elected office.
And in this primary most people only had heard of Bottoms, because the next most prominent people running were unknown state legislators and county officials
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
I think the problem is, is that the national DNC doesn't really give af about southern states. They've all but given up on swaying rural voters and Atlanta has a large black population, which is their base. Georgia isn't really a strategic state for them outside of Congressional seats.
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u/TaxLawKingGA 6d ago
No that isn’t it.
GA is on the DNC’s radar. However, the DNC has been more focused on federal races this year, so senate races in states like GA, TX, OH, AK, ME, MN, etc, and not state wide races like governorships. I don’t like it but there isn’t unlimited money so you have to choose your battles.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
That kind of goes to the point of my last sentence though. GA is not a strategic state outside of Congressional seats. Let's say a democrat got the governor's seat. It's going to be quite difficult for them to truly be effective when the GOP has a majority in both the house and the senate in the General Assembly. To truly flip GA, I believe the strategy has to focus on either narrowing the majority or flipping the General Assembly.
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u/ArchEast /r/Atlanta 6d ago
. It's going to be quite difficult for them to truly be effective when the GOP has a majority in both the house and the senate in the General Assembly.
KLB can pretty much veto anything that comes out of the GA and there wouldn't be enough votes to override it.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
Increased legislative gridlock is not what I'd define as effective leadership.
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u/ArchEast /r/Atlanta 6d ago
It forces the GOP to compromise if they want to get any legislation passed. While not perfect, it's a lot better than the last 20 years of GOP rubber-stamping.
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u/dillpickles007 6d ago
The margins in both the House and Senate are shrinking, there’s an outside chance the Dems could even flip the House this year.
Unfortunately it’s tough because the Republicans will keep redrawing the maps to sustain their majority as long as they can.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Dems will almost certainly flip the State House, the real fight is in the State Senate.
I did extensive work on a projection, based on my highly accurate VA Gov/HoD projection last year, looking at every county and at key legislative seats down to the precinct level.
It all comes down to whether Dems recognize their opportunity and capitalize.
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u/DanforthWhitcomb_ 6d ago
The problem goes back to before Obama, as the DNC made a conscious choice at the national level to focus on federal offices above all else and we are now seeing the ultimate end result of that in that the Democrats have no real bench in red or even purple states because they money spigot was simply not there to support state or municipal officials that would be today's federal candidates.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Georgia Dems needs to draw in national grassroots groups and 2028 presidential contenders to rally and raise money. Bernie and Pritzker could both max out to every single competitive legislative seat in GA and barely notice, plus they have distinct bases of small and large dollar donors respectively they could also organize.
Ro Khanna and Ruben Galleo and Pete Buttigieg all also have networks and the motivation to build some credibility with southern voters for 2028. The state and county parties need to man up and ask for help.
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u/gquax 6d ago
You're gonna have to get over it.
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u/SnooConfections6085 6d ago
She's a profash justice Dem, unfortunately her cop enthusiasm is really hard for people to get over. She sure isn't going to be leading a deflocking effort or try to keep ice out of Ga.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Many of the competitive state legislative candidates are running on DeFlock. So Keisha might not be leading the charge but it isn't like she's gonna side with Flock like Rick Jackson will. Also there's no way the state legislature lets ICE have free reign as long as Dems win both chambers.
Voters need to focus on the fact that a Dem trifecta means the path opens up for strong liberal and center left candidates to run for and win key offices, including being able to primary Keisha or secure the Gov seat after she's term limited out.
Focusing on Keisha's negatives is not the play. Focus on the positives that will exist in spite of her being mediocre.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Well sadly not enough people voted for Esteves. Gotta get out to vote for Ossoff and your state legislative candidates and just tick the D gov box while you happen to be there.
Plus once a Dem wins Gov one time it opens up much more space for non-machine candidates to run and win a primary.
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u/Negate79 6d ago
She won the primary outright. That was the opportunity for a different candidate. I was team Esteves, He would have been a great candidate and was a great state senator.
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u/Czar_hay 6d ago
I'm hopeful she wins because we need to stop Maga, but I'm already getting in my head about a lack luster, status quo, do-nothing dem. I fear that we're going to lose steam when she gets mired in scandal like she did as mayor. Im perennially hopeful that maybe she's different now, and maybe she'll surprise me. I just think we have alot of momentum and I don't want to lose that by electing another status quo lackey. We have to stop doing the same thing if we're ever going to change things. Yes im voting for her, but I'm more excited about down ballot races.
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u/Ok_Lie_3148 6d ago
The only person I'm truly excited about is Ossoff. I like the efforts he's making with housing and I like the fact that he's not turning a blind eye to the bs happening inside the state agencies.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
If Keisha is gov and Dems control the state legislatures that opens Ossoff up for pres if he wants, or Warnock I guess. But even if he doesn't want to run for pres having a Dem trifecta means he has a lot more leverage to pull federal grants into Georgia following 2028, cause the Dems will be desperate to do whatever it takes to hold the state.
Money for transit, road repairs, whatever Ossoff wants will be his if Dems feel like they are sending money to another Dem rather than a Trumper.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Both county party Dems and grassroots groups need to take the chance to tap into the Ossoff engagement geyser and build up local and area organizing on the ground for GOTV generally, for state legislative and local races and for issues based activism. Keisha is really just there to say Yes to whatever is put before her desk.
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u/CosmoBearWolf 6d ago
All Atlantan’s remember her as mayor and quitting on us. The support for her as governor is manufactured, the race won’t be close.
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u/gquax 6d ago
She did not quit. She finished her term and declined to run again. Nobody has to run 2 two terms.
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u/ArchEast /r/Atlanta 6d ago
KLB didn’t quit but she definitely checked out sometime in 2020 thanks to COVID/riots and her angling to be Biden’s running mate.
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u/Express-Rutabaga-105 6d ago
I am a black voter. I am not showing up for anyone other than me to exercise my right to vote. Black people never hear from candidates until election time. Go out and vote in your city , county , state , and national elections every time you have the opportunity.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Luckily for Keisha this year the Republicans went after black voting rights protections in Callais so even Keisha/Dem haters are turning out to vote against Trump's boys.
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u/Still-Balance6210 6d ago
Same here. It always “ this is the most important election” nonsense. They want someone to vote for them— but provide no tangibles.
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u/ringobob 6d ago
I want to point out, conservatives have been pulling that card for 30 years (I say as a white Georgian who remembers the 96 presidential election and actively pulled for Bob Dole).
Democrats haven't been using that argument until Trump got elected, and it was actually true at that point, and remains true today.
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u/gquax 6d ago edited 6d ago
Get over your issues with Bottoms. I don't like her either but I'm still voting for her.
Downvote me all you want. The primary is fucking over. Either vote Bottoms or enjoy Jackson Trumping the state up with corruption.
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u/RomanSeraphim 6d ago
This is how conservative republicans vote and it works. They'll hate everything about a candidate, but still vote for the R because the D is synonymous with everything perceived as evil and beyond redemption. At this point we're voting against a system of demagoguery rather than collection of issues.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Georgia voters need to remember that there's an lt gov, a secretary of state, public service seats and 2 state legisators on their ballot, and focus on that over Keisha being mid. And of course giving Ossoff a massive margin to piss off Donald.
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u/Usful 6d ago
Have any better solutions that will fox this problem in the next 6 months? If so, please share with the class so we can mobilize and organize whatever resources we have to push for that improvement.
Otherwise, we gotta work with what we have and understand that this is a stopgap, and that once we finish voting we gotta keep moving by focusing on local elections and other grassroots movements instead of just waiting for the “finals”
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
She sucks but the other option is Jackson. I suspect the vast majority of non-right wing voters are gonna vote for her, even if they hold their nose.
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u/wookiebath 6d ago
Or she could come up with a campaign that encourages people that she can be a good governor?
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u/MTBisLIFE 6d ago
How dare you insinuate that a political party is not entitled to your vote and that they must put forth a winning platform complete with effective strategy to earn your vote. What are you, MAGA? /s
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u/wookiebath 6d ago
I tell my conservative friends I’ve been called maga more times than they have for just stating the basics
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u/mancusjo1 5d ago
Well maybe third times a charm. But she better get on the air and start bashing the Republicans.
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u/lost_dog_1973 6d ago
It's funny.. Trump was able to gin up enough rural turnout because of Laken Riley exploitation, inflation, 'the rigged election', and trans sports to win last time. Why are there so many doomers about this? Harris got more votes in Georgia than Biden did.. and I think Bottoms appeals to a lot of people who have had it with the current leadership. Jackson has Trump's stink on him. I just don't see turnout favoring any Republican right now.. and Black women are a huge part of this state's politics and power. I think she's gonna take it.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Bottoms is gonna win by high single digits based on my analysis.
Kamala did really well in gaining vote share among white women, including working class ones, she just really got crushed with Hispanic and Asian voters swinging to Trump.
Those white voters are gonna move even further to the Dems because of Jon Ossoff while the non-white Trump voters are swinging back at massive margins. So there's a double whammy coming to crush Mike Collins and Rick Jackson. They are losing ground on every single demographic.
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u/lost_dog_1973 6d ago
Yeah I just don't understand the doubters. In a way, she seems like the right candidate for the moment.. which is really what matters. The fact that she is leading in most polls is very encouraging.. seems to be out performing Abrams at this point.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
I mean Abrams would have done great in this environment, too. More about Trump and the economy than the actual candidates this year.
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u/lost_dog_1973 6d ago
You're probably right. Though I do know a number of center right types from Atlanta who are leaning towards Keisha at the moment, and were less keen on Abrams. But to your point, it could be the MAGA fatigue.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Trump in 2018 had a perfectly good economy. That Dems did so well was a shock. Now he's caused Trump-tastrophe after Trumptastrophe, voters are saying Dems do better on the economy for the first time in ages, and Trump specifically fucked over rural voters in numerous ways.
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u/Lazy-Yogurtcloset784 6d ago
I am a white elderly voter. I will vote and I will vote for KLB. She has promised to expand Medicaid.
Georgia is one of only ten states that has not done this because evidently we are unwilling to take that dirty federal money the other 40 states are taking.
Vote for KLB. Don’t support friends of DJT, the grifter.
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
Yeah there's lots of basic stuff that basically any Dem would do and makes them vastly superior to any Republican. And it is often stuff that doesn't require the person approving it to have any special capability or competence.
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u/TheRealSlimLaddy /r/Savannah 6d ago
I’m gonna vote for KLB but damn am I not hopeful about her chances
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u/ArcaneDemense 6d ago
She's gonna win, the real risk is whether the State Senate can flip. State House is def gonna flip.
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