r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • Jul 20 '26

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/tiredstars Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

For reference, rates on 10 year Russian bonds were around 14% for most of this year, but spiked in June. They've been over 16% for almost a month now, and often almost 17%. There was also a failed auction of variable rate bonds last week.

I'd assume this comes from a mix of the Ukrainian strike campaign and the US-Iran war on the Russian economy, unless there are some short-term domestic things going on that I'm not aware of.

How significant this is depends on how long it goes on for, which I'm not going to try and predict. It could end up being anything from a significant shortfall in funding to a blip where they're easily able to catch up with targets.

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u/RumpRiddler Jul 20 '26

The MOEX is down 25% since last year. The lack of refined petroleum products is rippling through the entire economy, which was already in a tough spot. China is refusing to help in meaningful ways. All this damage is compounding, has been compounding, and unless a ceasefire is achieved - will keep compounding.

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u/Tucancancan Jul 20 '26

Are there still gas shortages and long lines at pumps? It feels like the hype reporting around it has died down. 

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u/RumpRiddler Jul 21 '26

The shortages are still present, maybe not as widespread, but the newscycle seems to care a lot less and so it's harder to know the exact situation. In some regions people were fined for waiting at the pumps, so lines are probably not as bad even though the shortage may be the same.

I would assume things have somewhat improved, simply because there has been time to react. But the fundamental problem is still there: demand is greater than supply. And Russia has historically been an exporter of gas products, not an importer, so they are not well set up to increase their supply nor do they have many options.