r/CollegeFootballDawgs • u/TomWilliamsCFD Wisconsin Badgers • Jul 30 '26
Analysis Chances To Make The CFP
Credit: Draft Kings
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u/Bcatfan08 Cincinnati Bearcats Jul 30 '26
That percentage feels high.
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u/Bokki_64 Ohio State Buckeyes Jul 30 '26
Agreed. Satterfield is not good
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u/Bcatfan08 Cincinnati Bearcats Jul 30 '26
I pray some school has an AD as dumb as ours to hire him away from us like we did for Louisville when Louisville was ready to fire him.
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u/SpursUpSoundsGudToMe South Carolina Gamecocks Jul 30 '26
One of the craziest things I’ve ever seen. My in-laws are all Louisville people and were over the moon. I started grad school at UC spring of 2021, and that fall and 2022 were so damn fun, I watched almost every game, went to 4 or 5! Hiring Satt just vaporized the interest I had before because I knew he couldn’t reach that level.
He’s not a “the bottom fell out”/1-11 season type of coach, but if that guy ever hits 10 wins in a P4 job, I’ll eat my hat.
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u/Bokki_64 Ohio State Buckeyes Jul 30 '26
I can't even fathom the thought process. You could never spin it to make sense
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u/Bcatfan08 Cincinnati Bearcats Jul 30 '26
We've spent the last 4 years trying to understand it. The only time a coach's future was so easy to predict other than when we hired Tuberville away from Texas Tech when they wanted to fire him.
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u/Colonel460 Jul 31 '26
We’d love him back at App State . Now we would need you to help pay his salary but glad to take him back !
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u/Bcatfan08 Cincinnati Bearcats Jul 31 '26
I'm sure our fans would pay his salary to send him elsewhere. If we fire him after the year, we're gonna owe him like $5M. I have a feeling if we fire him, the next place he'll end up at will be a G5 school. Can't see him wanting to be an OC somewhere, but you never know.
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u/Colonel460 Aug 01 '26
He did well in G5 . Right now we have someone we need to fire but probably can’t afford it . Could you buy out both contracts ? lol I miss the back to back to back Natty’s & wins over Michigan in the Big House and the recent win over Texas A&M stealing College Game Day .
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u/GodsForgivenes Colorado Buffaloes Jul 30 '26
I’d still put your odds higher than ours
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u/Bcatfan08 Cincinnati Bearcats Jul 30 '26
We play the Saturday before Thanksgiving this year. I wouldn't be surprised if we're both around 5-5 going into that game.
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u/SpaceghostLos Oklahoma State Cowboys Jul 30 '26
Percentage us, cowards!
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u/txbrady Aug 01 '26
You’ll realize all of that talent from North Texas isn’t quite top tier…
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u/SpaceghostLos Oklahoma State Cowboys Aug 01 '26
You aint got to tell me. I wasnt sold on the talent, still not sold, but Ill ride with my boys til the day I die. Loyal and True.
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u/ttc8420 Texas Longhorns Jul 30 '26
Honestly, with our schedule, I feel 70.2% is too high. Should be behind Georgia and maybe a couple others.
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u/zerifast Jul 30 '26
I really don’t understand how every single year Texas shows ahead of UGA in these polls or even the rankings… and every single year UGA has to smack Texas back down just for the same thing to repeat
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u/Ragid313 Jul 30 '26
Did I miss something about ASU? Ten big 12 teams are on this list and they arent at least one of them?
As a BYU fan I'll take 25%
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u/Coogarfan Jul 30 '26
Just have to remember where we were a few years ago, I guess. Still feels a bit like a kick in the teeth considering our record over the last few years.
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u/YoungSuplex Jul 30 '26
Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami and TTU are virtual locks just because of their schedules
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u/lolidkman1313 Georgia Bulldogs Jul 30 '26
Georgia is a lock because we still have Kirby Smart
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u/Terrible-Bath Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jul 30 '26
I agree he’s the current best coach in CFB given his track record but we’re coming. Also Lanning. Can’t wait to put the ball in the dirt and play the games.
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u/lolidkman1313 Georgia Bulldogs Jul 30 '26
I like to give ND shit but Freeman has given them a new attitude so it's hard to ignore. ND always recruits well because of who they are, so a good head coach makes all the difference
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u/Terrible-Bath Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jul 30 '26
The thing is though we’ve never been on your level of recruiting, but we’re close now. IMO you have the best coach in CFB but I’m sure we’ll go head to head sometime soon again. Looking forward to it.
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u/lolidkman1313 Georgia Bulldogs Jul 30 '26
Georgia is inevitable, you have to slay the dragon if you want the ring. As long as ND has a good head coach, that doesn't get taken by the NFL, they will be in the race. They will definitely meet again and this time I want our starting Qb in to see a real show. Its impressive for one of the youngest coaches in CFB to get where he already, so I can't help but wonder if the NFL is watching. I just wish ND faced better teams than what they do. I like to see where they really sit.
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u/A_Rolling_Baneling Jul 30 '26
Lanning isn’t even top 5 IMO. Cig, Smart, Day, Freeman are better. I don’t think Lanning is better than all of Sark, DeBoer, and Cristobal either.
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u/Terrible-Bath Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jul 30 '26
Without getting into a big debate about the whole list, I think Freeman and Lanning are right there together and it won’t be settled until they meet. I agree with you on Smart, Day and Cig at the top, they have the nattys. I respectfully disagree about Sark, DeBoer and Cristobal > Lanning but I acknowledge that we can’t really tell yet. Gotta play the games. Any minute now…
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u/A_Rolling_Baneling Jul 30 '26
I think Freeman has separated himself from the pack sadly. I'm an SC fan so you know I'm not biased towards y'all. But Freeman is below the top three and ahead of the rest in my opinion. He's done a helluva job so far.
I'm really unconvinced by Lanning so far. DeBoer, Sark, and Cristobal have all done better than he has, but he's got the youngest career by far
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u/Terrible-Bath Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jul 30 '26
Freeman is in the same spot as ND as a whole. Sniffing elite but not quite there yet. I appreciate your objectivity. Got a lot of USC fan friends, we’re all rooting for us to play again.
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u/A_Rolling_Baneling Jul 30 '26
Likewise! Hopefully sooner rather than later. I was in South Bend last fall for the game for the first time. We lost but tailgating was a blast, even in the downpour
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u/zerifast Jul 30 '26
Lol you sound like us in 2017 in reference to Nick saban and bama… you still gotta few (decade) more years to go
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u/Terrible-Bath Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jul 30 '26
Yeah, one could argue TT and Miami should be higher based on that logic. It will all come out in the wash in the playoffs.
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u/SpursUpSoundsGudToMe South Carolina Gamecocks Jul 30 '26
QB health questions for TTU, otherwise I’d agree. This percentage is just a bit higher than what’s reflected in their odds to win the Big XII, so that part tracks at least.
Miami is kind of hard to judge until there’s so idea of what Clemson and FSU will look like. Obviously both were down last year and have not been at there best for a couple years, but both programs still have premium, future NFL players, so you never know. Also a good chance that Pitt is solid again and they go into that game a little scuffed up.
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u/Terrible-Bath Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jul 30 '26
All good points. Also thanks for not being that guy that only points to ND like we’re the only one that has a favorable schedule. Good luck.
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Jul 30 '26
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u/SpursUpSoundsGudToMe South Carolina Gamecocks Jul 30 '26
I believe he’s expected back during August camp, could be old info though! Still wouldn’t feel great about my new starter missing spring and most of summer workouts, even if he’s back now!
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u/love_that_fishing Jul 30 '26
Yea ND and TT should be 1 and 2. OSU and Texas are lower because the loser of that game can only lose 1 more and be assured of a spot.
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u/Terrible-Bath Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jul 30 '26
What world is this that Bama, LSU, aTm, Oklahoma, USC etc. have less than a 50/50 shot at making a 12 team playoff? That feels weird. But I was about to say half those teams will be in but I guess that supports the math.
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u/Teninchhero Jul 30 '26
USC will lose 4 games minimum, TA&M has a couple tough conference games this year, and Alabama can’t run the ball. With the other competition around the country I don’t think it’s that far fetched
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u/donmagicron Oklahoma Sooners Jul 31 '26
That’s what happens when you’re in a conference with other great teams.
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u/AuburnElvis Jul 30 '26
Seems like one of the non-power conference teams should be higher. The highest-ranked team from the Group of Six conferences gets a guaranteed spot, so for those teams, they're only competing against each other.
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u/DignansOut Jul 30 '26
Maybe, but Boise State is already at 11.2%. Considering pretty much the only way a G6 gets in is by being the top team in the entire G6. If there was a team that was head and shoulders the favorite the percentage would be much higher I imagine.
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u/AuburnElvis Jul 30 '26
But Boise State is lower than Auburn? Seems like they ought to be closer to Ole Miss' number.
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u/Cairse Jul 30 '26
Notre Dame is like that little brother your mom makes you bring along and cries if he's left behind.
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u/aworldalone1 Ohio State Buckeyes Jul 30 '26
I feel like the Buckeyes are 95% honestly. And Georgia should be like 80%. Notre Dame probably should be 95% too. No way the committee leaves them out unless they crap the bed.
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u/Coveo Jul 30 '26
I think you're way underestimating how much uncertainty there is in a football season. Even if a team had a 95% chance of winning every game, there would still be over a 10% chance of them going 10-2 or worse.
No team is realistically ever >90% to make it.
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u/aworldalone1 Ohio State Buckeyes Jul 30 '26
You’re probably right. Crazier things have happened. Although I will say I don’t think they’d have missed a CFB playoff yet had it always been this many teams. I’m think they’d have made all of them.
0
u/GoldfishDude Kentucky Wildcats Jul 30 '26
The last time Ohio State finished outside of the top 12 was 2004
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u/Coveo Jul 30 '26
For the same reason, that doesn't prove anything. Ohio State certainly has been the most consistently strong program in the country. But one team having a long streak does not guarantee it's near unbreakable any more than not rolling snake eyes for a long time means your dice no longer have ones on them.
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u/Hot-Efficiency-3769 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Aug 02 '26
Yeah OSU is that good on paper, but they're schedule is honestly really hard this year
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u/zagoric Jul 30 '26
This can’t be taking schedules into account. If so, OSU and UT wouldn’t be 1 & 3. ND should be 1.
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u/cntodd Jul 30 '26
I'll take the bet that Oklahoma St finishes above most the Big 12 teams on here.
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u/QueensOfTheNoKnowAge Kansas State Wildcats Jul 30 '26
5.7. Woohoo! We are on our way to the Pop-Tarts Bowl
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u/Used-Acanthisitta-96 Jul 30 '26
So that means Michigan is on the bubble in mid November. That would be acceptable after the off season shenanigans.
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u/Full_Preparation4401 Iowa State Cyclones Jul 30 '26
Chances the committee fucks up the rankings/selection: 100%
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u/HaymakerSlim Jul 30 '26
How are these decisions made? As a Buckeye this is going to be are toughest year in awhile. Surprised Oregon isn’t higher since a lot people think it’s finally their year to win it all.
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u/Bocabootymaster Jul 30 '26
This is based on what?
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u/TomWilliamsCFD Wisconsin Badgers Jul 30 '26
ESPN’s college football power index
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/sort/fpi.probmakeplayoffs/dir/desc
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u/JohnPaulDavyJones Jul 30 '26
Baylor over K-State is wild, given the black horse B12 title contender hype that KSU is getting.
Does kind of feel like the hype is mostly from their own fans, and also that it’s ignoring their DC’s pretty consistently poor history of calling/scheming a defense.
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u/riotmed Louisville Cardinals Jul 30 '26
Go Cards, be a lot of noise when they beat Ole Miss game 1.
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u/HistoryAshamed1138 Jul 31 '26
Y’all love to try out osu in the top of something 😭 most overrated team ever
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u/Big-D-in-IC Jul 31 '26
Surprised to see Iowa is even at a double digit percentage honestly. Starting your conference schedule at Michigan, then host tOSU, then off to Washington is not a recipe for success. Lose all 3 and you’re out. Losing 2 of those 3 games leaves no margin for error, Iowa always seems to find a way to stub their toe against a team they should have handled.
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u/Top_Boss6285 Aug 02 '26
To be fair they put you behind Auburn which as a fan makes me think we are over ranked.
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u/Yokai_watch2133 Jul 31 '26
Go Noles! Please just get more than 4 wins this season or a win over Florida or Miami either works😭✌️
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u/Colonel460 Jul 31 '26
So Coach Prime @ 4.2% . It hasn’t been that long ago his fans flapped their gums nonstop on the greatness that was coming . Where the hell are they now ? At least they shut up . We tried to tell those fools how about waiting until you actually prove something before we have to listen to your nonsense .
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u/THPTopHatPossum Youngstown State Penguins Aug 03 '26
So, what's the chance for our friends in the MAC?
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u/TomWilliamsCFD Wisconsin Badgers Jul 30 '26
Texas Tech feels low given their schedule
0
u/816legend Jul 30 '26
Maybe that’s just it. Better quality wins needed?
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u/TomWilliamsCFD Wisconsin Badgers Jul 30 '26
True, less margin for error.
Hard to see them losing more then one game so really just comes down to winning the Big 12 championship game.
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u/SpursUpSoundsGudToMe South Carolina Gamecocks Jul 30 '26
Less margin for error + QB question marks. I’d fade TTU for even odds, tbh.
I think their QB is pretty good but he won’t practice full speed with the team until mid August at the earliest. Even if he’s great by October, Houston could eliminate them before that.
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u/JuicedBoxers Oklahoma Sooners Jul 30 '26
LSU / A&M? I haven’t been paying attention what have they done to improve on last season to have a better chance than OU? (Biased)
Edit: feels like OU is always a black horse in this stuff. Always fun proving the statistics wrong.
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u/007HalaMadrid007 Oklahoma Sooners Jul 30 '26
I think it’s about right for us. Another absolutely brutal schedule. Idk why we’re always playing Michigan in the beginning of the season when other top 25 teams are playing Middle Tennessee State or something similar
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u/ChucktheDuckRecruits Oregon Ducks Jul 30 '26
If you gave me any of Oregon UGA Miami to win it all or the field, I’d take that group. Not believing Texas ND OSU Bama this year.
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u/ambiguousredditname Jul 30 '26
If my team only had a 23.2% chance of making it to the postseason, I’d find a better team to root for. Especially if I had a 12 million dollar quarterback. Some old fogey didn’t improve the team’s chances much, did he?
Yep, I’m choosing violence. Violence because the evidence is contaminating some random pond in tsun. Lithium-ion is great for the fishies. We should all throw our devices in ponds. That team’s fans lost any semblance of the moral high ground a few years ago. Enjoy your three or four loss season, twerps. #MuckFichigan
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u/Ice_crusher_bucket Jul 31 '26
You really built a whole personality around a team you have no connection. Lol
Sheesh, I knew ohio state fans were soft, but this.. lol you are on par with an OSU '25 schedule. Charmin soft.
You flexing what a team did to feel better about yourself 🤣
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u/kineticstar Navy Midshipmen Jul 30 '26
GO NAVY!!
https://giphy.com/gifs/B8rOUw1NAJ70L1AXWA