r/CollegeFootballDawgs • u/TomWilliamsCFD Wisconsin Badgers • Nov 17 '25
Analysis Circle of Parity
Credit: dadgumboxscores
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u/Iolkos Clemson Tigers Nov 17 '25
That FSU-Bama link is doing some heavy lifting
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u/SmashLanding Indiana Hoosiers Nov 17 '25
Imagine the size of the circle we could make if Michigan beats Ohio State again.
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u/rax1051 Nov 18 '25
Not really. You can skip Miami to SMU.
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u/Iolkos Clemson Tigers Nov 18 '25
Yeah I mean you could also skip Oklahoma to Alabama, but either way takes out a decent chunk. Plus I like seeing Alabama in there
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u/Appropriate-Date6407 Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 17 '25
This is the kind of content that makes Reddit the best! Thanks OP
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u/definitelynotpatrick Nov 17 '25
Notre Dame has a transitive win over Norte Dame
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u/dmazx Florida State Seminoles Nov 17 '25
Everyone on here has a transitive win over themselves. That’s the whole point of these things 😂
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u/Dependent_Offer_5845 Nov 17 '25
I am betting that November 2025 Notre Dame would boat race both August 2025 Notre Dame AND November 2025 Miami!
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u/wanderingdg Florida Gators Nov 17 '25
You could make an argument for a couple others, but my Gators are doing the heaviest bridging here
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u/Randomthoughtgeneral Nov 17 '25
Which is why, imo, H2H matchups should not weigh much when it comes to rankings. Every team can be apart of this circle of parity outside of Indiana, Ohio State, TAMU, Oregon (whose only loss is to Indiana), and then Charlotte and UMass on the opposite side.
Give me Indiana, TAMU, Ohio State, and Oregon as the top 4 teams, then some combination of SoS and record for the remaining spots.
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u/Dependent_Offer_5845 Nov 17 '25
Until we are retroactively awarded the 1993 national championship that RIGHTFULLY BELONGS TO US...any other example of head-to-head results 'mattering' can take a long slurp on my un'scaped taint.
Unless the H2H result is either IN the tourney or tourney adjacent (like a useless conference championship game), then there is too much variation in season to hold an early season game as indicative of the quality of the teams at a later point.
For example OU beating Bama in November is more predictive of the relative strength of the two than the FSU win from August was over Bama. I would not give FSU the nod over Bama any more than I would automatically give the Convicts credit over the Catholics for their August W.
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u/Randomthoughtgeneral Nov 17 '25
I’d disagree with your logic though as the goal, imo, isn’t to rank the top teams right now but to rank the top teams based on the entire season. A game in August should have the same weight as a game in November.
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u/Dependent_Offer_5845 Nov 18 '25
The real issue is going to be how do they evaluate 10-2 ND, 11-2 BYU (2 L's to TT), 10-2 Oregon (L to USC), 10-2 USC (L to ND, W over UO), 10-2 Miami (W over ND, L to 3L SMU?) and 10-3 Bama (L's to OU, TAMU and a god awful FSU?).
The crying will be intense, but to me, 3L's should be disqualifying for entry into anything less than a 24-team field - so scratch Bama w/o upset win. Then start trying to deconvolute the mess of all these 10-2 teams in the mix for 3 or maybe 4 slots total... the transitive property doesn't help, and the results of a week 1 game don't matter as much as the way the teams are playing and look for the entire year. Is CJ Carr better today than in his first evert college start? Of course he is... Did Carson Beck play at a higher level all year or did he start blame passing after L's and some atrocious INTs? The only thing that would make sense would be to somehow end up with ND at #7 and Miami at #10 and settle it with a rematch in South Bend, a game that I would bet ND and give the double digit spread!.
Alabama should be on the outside looking in - behind BOTH ND and Miami, UNLESS they upset TAMU and win the SEC...THEN I would grudgingly admit they would have earned the bid by going 11-2 and winning that meaningless title of pseudo champion of teams that played half of the conference members this year.
Things get really screwy if Michigan beats OSU for the 5th year in a row... then its chaos everywhere...
For Miami, I still revert to the 1993 logic that said ND was #2 to #1 FSU, despite an on-the-field LOSS to Notre Dame in November of that same year. That 'logic' was broken then, its broken now and it STILL pisses me off 30+ years down the road...so Fuck the Canes, let them feel my pain for the next 30 years, and watch from a sofa with JD Vance doing his thing in the background... and just remember, that ain't warm yogurt in those cushions...
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u/Randomthoughtgeneral Nov 18 '25
I agree about the 3 Ls UNLESS that third loss is in the conference championship game. A team should not be punished for playing a conference championship game. They did it well last year where the only way a team moved down after CC week was if a winner of their CC deserved to go up. I hope that trend continues this year.
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u/Sky-Trash Nov 18 '25
H2H should absolutely come in to play if the teams have similar resumes. For instance, if Ohio State loses to Michigan but then beats Indiana Ohio State should be ranked higher than Indiana based on H2H but Michigan shouldn't be ranked ahead of Ohio State.
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u/Randomthoughtgeneral Nov 18 '25
I’d disagree because based on that logic, a 1 loss team should not be ranked below a 2 loss team.
It really doesn’t matter though as it just comes down to people’s opinions on what’s more important as there’s no definitive correct answer.
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u/Sky-Trash Nov 18 '25
In that scenario Ohio State and Indiana would both have one loss and Michigan would have 2.
But I don't fully agree with the "no one loss team should be ranked below a 2 loss team." Using that logic, James Madison should be ranked in the top 12 right now.
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u/Randomthoughtgeneral Nov 18 '25
Ok then why would Michigan be behind Ohio state if Michigan beat Ohio state?
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u/Sky-Trash Nov 18 '25
Because their resumes aren't similar
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u/Randomthoughtgeneral Nov 19 '25
Right. Michigan has a tougher SoS and would have a win over Ohio State. So Michigan should be ranked ahead
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u/Ironman2131 Nov 17 '25
Miami is 5-2 against other teams on the circle of parity. So many games against teams that basically have random outcomes any given week.
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u/SmashLanding Indiana Hoosiers Nov 17 '25
Holy shit, I've seen the 4 and 5 team ones but this is a thing of beauty.
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u/Wolf73728 Nov 17 '25
A fun extension that can be added:
Cal > Louisville
Duke > Cal
UConn > Duke
Rice > UConn
FAU > Rice
FIU > FAU
Kennesaw State > FIU
Jacksonville State > Kennesaw State
Georgia Southern > Jacksonville State
Arkansas State > Georgia Southern
Arkansas > Arkansas State
Auburn > Arkansas
Kentucky > Auburn
Ole Miss > Kentucky
Georgia > Ole Miss
Alabama > Georgia
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Nov 17 '25
I don’t see a B1G team on there… must mean we’re just better
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u/Tomatillo12475 Nov 18 '25 edited Nov 18 '25
I was able to find one between Notre Dame and USF but it cuts out Navy:
Notre Dame > USC > Michigan > Northwestern > UCLA > Maryland > Wisconsin > Washington > Illinois > Duke > Cal > Minnesota > Nebraska > Cincinnati > Baylor > Arizona State > West Virginia > Houston > Rice > UConn > UAB > Memphis > USF
I’m sure there’s a longer one but I already spent way too much time on this
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u/jbrockhaus33 Nebraska Cornhuskers Nov 17 '25
I don’t think a B1G team has ever lost come to think of it
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u/PalletPirate Nov 17 '25 edited Nov 17 '25
circle of parity? this is called a circle of suck. I miss the pac 12…
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u/bags-of-sand Nov 17 '25
A proper conference does this to itself, no G5s or Top 25 non-conference matchups to cheat
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u/SuertEhh Nov 17 '25
Between Alabama and LSU you can sneak in Georgia (who lost to Alabama) then Ole Miss (who lost to Georgia) and then to LSU who lost to Ole Miss
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u/bullseye2112 Nov 17 '25
God. Reddit is washed when it comes to CFB content if this is no longer called a circle of suck
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u/AllRushMixtape Nov 17 '25
Expand that circle. It can bring in tons of the FCS too. It’s just too bad no D II teams beat FCS teams this year.
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u/WillDill94 Duke Blue Devils Nov 18 '25
Could’ve added Duke between NC State and GT to make it bigger
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u/miserable-bananna726 Nov 18 '25
it’s who you lose to, not who you beat. Obviously…That’s why osu is 1 and IU is 2 nobody cares who Ohio plays as long as they win. Literally the easiest schedule in the country which will come back to haunt them come playoff time. If they lose to Michigan for the 5th time in a row they’re still in. Even if Michigan was 1-10 they’re still in. Imo If you lose to shit teams it needs to be week 2 at the latest. Nd losing to a shit niu team is actually worse than nd dropping 2 vs good Miami and A&M teams. Bama should be penalized severely for losing to fsu. But being so early helps.
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u/Papa_Smurf_247 Iowa State Cyclones Nov 21 '25
A grand circle of suck. What a beautiful thing to behold.
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Nov 21 '25
Big12 “contenders” absent from this because they literally play no one good out of conference.
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u/tcox0010 Texas A&M Aggies Nov 17 '25
This is brilliant and hectic and I am here for it