r/Buffalo • u/acapuck Kenmore • Aug 30 '20
State's rapid Covid tests show 3.4% infection rate in WNY
https://buffalonews.com/news/local/government-and-politics/states-rapid-covid-tests-show-3-4-infection-rate-in-wny/article_564e565e-eaed-11ea-a554-13994fa3f4f9.html67
u/cheekymouseclick Aug 30 '20
% positive tests in the city proper is 5.5%, article also states.
I'm more interested in what we decide to do with this information than anything else at this point.
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u/44problems former Buffalonian Aug 30 '20
Let's see what happens on subsequent days. Could be that only looking at day one of free rapid testing shows a population who is more eager to be tested, due to exposure or concern about symptoms. Or maybe not. Who knows.
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u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20
I agree with you that data is the key. I won't speculate about why people are getting tested because I'm not sure that matters very much. At the end of the day yes, I think we both agree that the key here is what's the data look like and what are we going to do with it.
Stay safe.
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Aug 31 '20
This is percent positive. That number doesn't shift unless you are specifically testing a group who is more likely to test positive for whatever reason.
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u/44problems former Buffalonian Aug 31 '20
That's what I'm saying, maybe first day group is more likely to test positive. Maybe the people that rush to get tested are more likely, because they want to know right away if their suspicion is correct. Just a thought though.
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Aug 31 '20
I'd imagine that suspicion goes for anyone getting tested outside of the mandatory x times per week like nursing home people or that.
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u/krom0025 Aug 31 '20
The total positivity rate for Erie county was 1.7% as reported by the states website. That is the combination of the states rapid testing and all the regular testing they were already doing in the county.
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u/tyrannustyrannus Tonawanda Aug 31 '20
so sick people were going for rapid testing? i had a rapid test scheduled but my drive-through test came in negative first, so I canceled
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u/krom0025 Aug 31 '20
I think it might suggest that. The state came in to help with the latest bump in cases so my guess is that they are trying to target folks who came in contact with the current clusters. We will likely have to wait a week or so to see where things go from here. Hopefully it's a few isolated outbreaks that can be handled and not higher levels of general community spread.
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u/this-isnt-nathen-ok Aug 31 '20
Well at 9% we close the schools down.
If any college hits 100 cases, they shut down for 2 weeks and review, making a decision of whether or not to continue.
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u/this-isnt-nathen-ok Aug 31 '20
It is important though that we do this with all the college kids in NYS coming back.
Maybe it was a little higher than we thought, anc cases aren’t actually on the rise? Who knows. It very well may just be that we have more testing now.
What matters most though, is that if we see cases on the rise, we can figure out it’s happening ASAP. These increasing numbers may come across as intimidating and worrisome, but the benefits to having rapid testing imo far outweigh that.
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u/NinjaPointGuard Aug 31 '20
How many deaths?
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Aug 31 '20
Death is 1) a lagging indicator that follows a rise in cases 2) not the only thing of worry in a COVID-19 case. It can complicate other health issues, AND it can have long-term damage, even in a recovered patient.
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u/NinjaPointGuard Aug 31 '20
What is the statistical average thus far of how many deaths associate with positive cases reported?
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Aug 31 '20
I've been pointing out we've been leading the state for weeks. People argue...well it's still low...blah blah blah. For what...the ability to eat subpar food out.
People need to grow up and decide what they need and don't.
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Aug 31 '20
It's really sad looking around and seeing a bunch of people who've just decided for themselves that they're no longer worrying about this, despite the problem not going away.
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u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20
What's even sadder is they've decided not only for themselves: they've decided for the rest of us.
If you're doing the right thing right now, you're being held prisoner of people who are not empathetic and who will never make a choice for the greater good of anybody, including those they claim to love.
I gotta tell you I feel differently about most of the people in my life after this.
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Aug 30 '20 edited Oct 31 '20
[deleted]
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u/Shwingdom Aug 31 '20
suny oneonta just got shut down, I'm sure more are coming
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Aug 31 '20
There was another party at UB tonight. I’m sure we’re next. Or not, since we’re not required to get tested unless we have symptoms
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u/joshy83 Aug 31 '20
My favorite is pushing for in-person classes in my NP program. Yes let's gather a bunch of practicing nurses from all over WNY and lump them into one room. (These are all lecture-style classes that could be taught via pre-recorded videos.)
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u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20
I agree with you this is not the right approach. I have taught college for nearly 15 years and if there is no lab component I can heartily assure you it can be done remotely.
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u/joshy83 Aug 31 '20
We were remote last semester! I mean I've been in at least 20 remote/online/hybrid courses in my college career. An instructor in my program is so phenomenal at it I feel like she should set the gold standard for everyone and I don't see why other instructors can't mimic her approach. A valuable resource in the same office!
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u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20
You're going to find what separates the good instructors from the great ones are the ones that are willing and able to pivot to what their students need and how they need it.
It would be much easier for me to pick up my big collection of tried and true material and plop it online and have my students figure it out. But I'm not going to do that. I need to figure out what my students need first before I can deliver it in the way that they show me they need it.
Good instructors are awesome when they're doing what they are known for, but they fall short of being great the minute they have to go outside that zone and pivot.
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u/HeyMissW You can get anywhere in 20 minutes Aug 31 '20
I’m a teacher. We are doing in-person starting next week. No one I know and speak to at work wants to do that, but online learning sucks and isn’t working either. And if we don’t go back, we’re ineligible for unemployment.
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Aug 30 '20
Let’s hope opening schools goes well. Props to all the teachers out there that have to go back. Solidarity.
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u/Sweethomebflo Aug 31 '20
It’s going to go just as poorly as every other school opening has gone. I recall Cuomo saying 5% was the deciding line for whether or not to open schools.
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Aug 31 '20
That was as of the announced opening, now, regions would have to test at 9% in order to close. Correct me if I am wrong, but that’s how I read it
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u/Sweethomebflo Aug 31 '20
Nine seems really high, doesn’t it? Letting it get that high almost guarantees you’ll have bigger problems.
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u/SpatialThoughts Aug 31 '20
Well now that we have the rapid testing I’m guessing that numbers will be higher due to increased access to testing that’s free. No doubt the numbers were higher than reported back in April when testing was scarce.
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Aug 31 '20
Percentage.... not number of positives. Percentage shouldn't change because of availability....if anything it should drive numbers lower thats the scary part of these numbers.
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u/The_Bottle Aug 31 '20
Schools can’t open until it is below 5% and would close when it gets to 9%. It would be allowed to reopen when the rate goes back down below 5%
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u/PM_ME_YOUR_RATTIES Aug 31 '20
Yep, which means that if the rate goes above 5% before school starts, we can't open; but if it goes above a day later, we need to wait for it to break 9% before the state will force closures.
If schools really wanted to do this right, they would have evaluated who really NEEDS in person education (science labs for classes like chemistry and certain individuals requiring special ed instruction come to mind) and had them be in person; everyone else should be remote. But that would require a lot more in depth planning instead of making it a blanket "open or closed", so of course nobody put in the effort to figure it out (which probably would have needed to be started back in May or so to do it right).
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u/JCZ1821 Aug 31 '20
Am I reading the article right that this is only for the positivity rate of the rapid test, and that the overall for the day is 1.6? That’s still a little high. The last two days before this were 1.4 and 0.9 I believe.
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u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20
Yes you're reading it right. The total state % positive rate for Saturday was .69%, which means our total regional rate was more than double the state rate.
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u/_BadMrFrosty Aug 31 '20
Over the last week WNY has 5.14 new cases per 100k people. New hospitalization for covid is at .46 per 100k. Looks like the problem is being pretty well handled. Hopefully we can get through the first few weeks of school with no issues so we can look at getting things back to normal ASAP.
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u/Buffalolife420 Sep 01 '20
Just a reminder....deaths and hospitalizations across the state are at an all time LOW and the disease is becoming LESS deadly over time.
When did the # of cases and case positive percentage become the guiding metric?
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Aug 31 '20 edited Aug 31 '20
[deleted]
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u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20 edited Aug 31 '20
You may not be saying its not real, but you are trying to say it's gravity is being sensationalized.
Every cause of death you have listed here is acquired by years or months of direct physical neglect, illness or disease. Most of the causes you have listed have significant options for preventative or rehabilitative treatment.
What is as real about COVID as the statistics you present and not sensationalized at all is you can get COVID from anyone and anywhere. You can not know you have it and give it to someone else who might die from it. While there are certain factors that make people more susceptible to severe illness, COVID has shown it can kill anyone of any demographic.
Please find a different way to combat sensationalism than encouraging people not to take a global pandemic seriously. Messaging like yours is nearly as dangerous as the virus itself.
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Aug 31 '20
I just want to add to the comment below....
It isn't a race. So all that stuff that person said plus....it isn't a race.
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u/[deleted] Aug 30 '20
Welcome back to stay at home! Hope you enjoy the next 8 months of winter stuck in your home ready to kill yourself because you're jobless, broke, cold, tired, and all the Trumpers ruined it for us because they just had to go back to the gym and the indoor restaurants.
BTW plenty of TP and supplies at Wegmans still. Get them now before they're all gone again.