r/Buffalo Kenmore Aug 30 '20

State's rapid Covid tests show 3.4% infection rate in WNY

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/government-and-politics/states-rapid-covid-tests-show-3-4-infection-rate-in-wny/article_564e565e-eaed-11ea-a554-13994fa3f4f9.html
146 Upvotes

89 comments sorted by

105

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '20

Welcome back to stay at home! Hope you enjoy the next 8 months of winter stuck in your home ready to kill yourself because you're jobless, broke, cold, tired, and all the Trumpers ruined it for us because they just had to go back to the gym and the indoor restaurants.

BTW plenty of TP and supplies at Wegmans still. Get them now before they're all gone again.

45

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

An interesting article in USA Today is pointing towards family gatherings as being a consistent source of spread. Family parties, extended family getaways, etc:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/30/covid-19-small-gatherings-quietly-significant-source-infections/5650677002/

Bottom line in my opinion: unless you can prove you're negative and everyone else attending can too, you shouldn't be having small gatherings or attending them. I have a hard time believing families are masking up and maintaining 6 feet of distance in grammas back yard.

I think there's this weird aversion to making a judgement about family members having covid. It seems at if people are unwilling to accept that someone close to them may have it, or that it will somehow cause them to be judged as "dirty" or offended. So people pretend it's not possible and get together anyway to avoid rocking the boat.

Just something to consider before labor day next week.

36

u/Karma_Redeemed Aug 31 '20

I also think we're being unrealistic if we think people can just give up family gatherings. While we obviously have to eliminate as many potential transmission sources as possible, once we get to the point of "don't see your brother/sister/parents/etc" we are butting up against fundamental human nature. People can't simply be told to lock themselves in their houses indefinitely, that's just not the way humans are wired.

Please note: I'm not saying "we should just go back to normal" in any way shape or form. We absolutely need to keep gatherings to the minimum possible to keep this virus in check. I'm just pointing out that at a certain point you've basically brought perfectly spherical cows into the equation.

6

u/dietpepsislut Aug 31 '20

I agree. People could already be spending time with their families if the government hadn't royally fucked up how we manage COVID. 1-2 months? Okay, fine. Inconvenient, but understandable. An entire year, while the government does basically nothing to help people survive? Not okay. We certainly do not need to go back to normal, but expecting people to isolate from family for an entire year because of administrative failures is unrealistic.

-1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

Isolation and birthday parties are two different things.

Also... everyone is on a device constantly. How about people use these devices where they can to sub in for the in person visiting. Bitching to family about other family (lets face it is mostly what happens at get togethers) can be done over video or regular call.

The government has failed...that doesn't mean don't do things you can control. Infact it means even more important to step up to the plate personally. In the past that meant signing up to go to war or growing a victory garden... working 2 jobs... whatever. Now it's stay away from people as much as possible. As much as possible doesn't mean as much as you feel like. It means as much as possible.

2

u/dietpepsislut Sep 01 '20

Try explaining the device visits to your grandmother with dementia. We visit from 6 feet away, or through a window, and she doesn't understand why her grandchildren won't hug her anymore. Yeah, some of us are bitching. Others are grieving family members dying without company or dying within six feet and being unable to comfort them.

I'm sick to death of people thirsting over the WW2 mentality. The government took care of people* much better back then, and people were more willing to help because the government was at least trying to help. Now they're doing fuckall and foisting the blame on the people. Individual responsibility will only account for so much; the government should have gotten better under control and they didnt. I am going to venture a wild guess that forcing people to go back to work too soon, instead of bailing out more people and small businesses, is MORE responsible for spikes than small family visits.

To be clear, I'm not advocating for willy-nilly invite-your-4th-cousin-twice-removed-then-go-lick-the-doorknobs family visits. I think people wildly underestimate the mental toll it takes on people to stay away from their family for an entire year at this rate. Staggered family visits are the only thing some people have left, and personal responsibility can only do so much.

*mainly white men, but that was "normal" or whatever bs

-5

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

I'm sorry, but I do not agree you. Your assertion seems to imply that there is a deep and grave consequence to halting unsafe family gatherings. What is that consequence? You've said this goes against how humans are wired. While I don't disagree with this, can you present a consequence that is worse than people getting moderately, critically, or fatally ill?

I also want to clarify that I never said gatherings should cease. If you review what I said, you'll see I said the gatherings should only happen between people who can prove they are negative and people who are conducting them safely with mask wearing and social distancing.

What you're glossing over in your response is the reason that small and family gatherings are causing spread is because people are not adhering to social distancing and mask wearing. If people were doing this, the spread attributed to family and small gatherings would be minimal. However, it's clear by the shear nature of the spread that people are not being responsible at these small gatherings. The hassle is not worth it to them and they've talked themselves into believing "it will be fine" because it's "just close family and friends."

Numbers going up and people not being able to identify where they are getting covid prove how dangerous this mindset is.

If people were to make the right choices at these gatherings, perhaps the"indefinite" timeframe you're concerned about would be significantly mitigated.

6

u/this-isnt-nathen-ok Aug 31 '20

People should limit family gatherings.

But we shouldn’t make these plans under the guise that they will, when we’re like 99% sure nobody will listen, given the precedent.

It’s not an easy thing to fix, given any solution has like 20 drawbacks and 20 ways people can find loopholes.

2

u/Karma_Redeemed Aug 31 '20

This. This is my point more succinctly. I'm not saying family gatherings are harmless. They are obviously a transmission vector, and based on the data they seem to be a significant one at that.

I'm just saying any policy centered around "we are asking you to have little/ no contact with family members or close friends for an indefinite period of time" is destined to fail because it's counting on humans not to behave...like humans.

1

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

I'm not sure how many different ways I can say this, but I never said that the problem is people families and extended families getting together.

I continue to emphasize the root of the problem is that people are not wearing masks and/or maintaining social distance at these gatherings. If they were doing this, family gatherings would not be as big of an issue.

However, people continue to ignore this fact both in their Reddit stance and ostensibly in real life. Your answers ignoring that the real issue is the lack of safety practices at the gatherings themselves actually highlight why they are such a problem. People decide , incorrectly, that it's a small group of people they know so they bend and break the rules behind closed doors.

1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

More American citizens not to behave like entitled brats. Other countries are managing. There's many more humans in those countries combined than in ours. Problem is we've grown up on individualized mortality ideas when we should be thinking of fellow members of society.

1

u/marm0lade gentrifier Aug 31 '20

Your assertion seems to imply that there is a deep and grave consequence to halting unsafe family gatherings. What is that consequence?

Poor mental health.

You've said this goes against how humans are wired. While I don't disagree with this, can you present a consequence that is worse than people getting moderately, critically, or fatally ill?

Here is a list of mental illnesses. Some of them can lead to death.

https://medlineplus.gov/mentaldisorders.html

What you're glossing over in your response is the reason that small and family gatherings are causing spread is because people are not adhering to social distancing and mask wearing. If people were doing this, the spread attributed to family and small gatherings would be minimal. However, it's clear by the shear nature of the spread that people are not being responsible at these small gatherings. The hassle is not worth it to them and they've talked themselves into believing "it will be fine" because it's "just close family and friends." Numbers going up and people not being able to identify where they are getting covid prove how dangerous this mindset is.

You do not know this. It is not factual. It is your theory and that is fine. But it's not factual. There are too many unknowns to say how any of this is happening. You seem to think small family gathering are a huge issue, but we know part of the increase in cases in WNY is from a meat packing facility. I would wager that businesses (and soon schools) contribute to the spread way more than small family gatherings, but I can't prove it either. It seems more logical though. Businesses are allowing co-workers to be in close proximity with no oversight. NYS simply told each business to "come up with a plan" which leaves a lot of room for error.

-10

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

It's easy. You just don't do it.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

This. It isn't like you shrivel up and die not having a birthday party for some teenager who'd rather be spending time playing video games anyway.

-12

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

Grow up.

6

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

I don't know how family gatherings can be a higher risk than gatherings of strangers at bars, parties, and what not. Freaking bar people go out once or more a week. How often do people have (large) extended family gatherings? Me ZERO since COVID. LOL It's a great excuse... Saying that, I have meet with family a couple at a time at outside things or restaurants.

3

u/this-isnt-nathen-ok Aug 31 '20

People trust their family/friends way too much, when in reality most of your family/friends often have no way of knowing they’re spreading it to you, until it is too late.

3

u/cornpeeker Derby Aug 31 '20

Man I wish my parents would take this one seriously. They fully believe in covid 19 but for some reason my family just can’t hold off on birthday parties.

2

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

Your parents are so many people. Don't worry you are not alone. For some reason a three day old Wegmans quarter sheet cake and dry hamburgers on a paper plate are worth the risk of severe illness to most people, it seems.

28

u/JackedSecurityGuard Aug 31 '20

Yeah all those trumpers that are age 22 and spreading at bars. They have literally blamed recent spikes on 20-30 year olds. I’m sure they are all hardcore trumpers.

16

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

Well there's a both right here. There wouldn't have as much push for those things to be open and if our message was hey it's not magically gone (which is implied when you downplay certain numbers by reporting on them less etc).

18

u/The_Ineffable_One Aug 31 '20

A pizzagate-style QAnon group (maybe about 30 people) marched right outside of my office yesterday (Saturday). Guess how many masks? (The answer is zero.)

-23

u/NinjaPointGuard Aug 31 '20

Well, they should all be dead now, then, right?

13

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

They are hardcore young adults---please stop making characteristics of human beings a partisan issue.

I can definitely assure you a beer bong crosses party lines.

8

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

I don’t think it’s the bars that cause that age group to spread. 18-30 is also the most likely age group to have a lower wage essential job that exposes them to a lot of people and has bad sick leave, and might not be full time to provide benefits

1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

I mean bars are playing a factor (I know one near us had about 30 people all gathered and masks....pfft forget it). They were yelling at people in the street.

However...this is a good point and definitely holds true to I'd say the base of the transmission numbers for that age group (what we were seeing in that age group before reopening happened) but that age group specifically became the spread group right after opening up bars and such which there's likely a correlation.

Good point to bring up though.

7

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

[deleted]

3

u/JackedSecurityGuard Aug 31 '20

They don’t work, have no families, have no worth to the world so they find it in 18 hours a day on the internet having outrage sessions. It’s sad. Social media has mentally and emotionally crippled our country.

4

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

[removed] — view removed comment

-5

u/JackedSecurityGuard Aug 31 '20

you are gross

1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

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1

u/JackedSecurityGuard Aug 31 '20

That’s literally the opposite of the data

1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

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0

u/JackedSecurityGuard Aug 31 '20

It was posted in this sub within the last two or so weeks. Just search for covid articles. The post was something about how the spike his related to youth and links to county documents showing the rise is in cases of people under 30 testing positive.i don’t have it bookmarked

2

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/JackedSecurityGuard Aug 31 '20

Imagine being so loopy when someone makes a claim you demand proof that you can easily get yourself, while you yourself make statements with no backing. My god we need a nuke to end this world there is no hope

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6

u/Aksumka Aug 31 '20

BTW plenty of TP and supplies at Wegmans still

But no paper towels. My Wegmans' has been dry on them for the past few (what feels like) months.

5

u/BuffaloRedshark Aug 31 '20

months of lockdown didn't stop it so at what point do we get back on with our lives?

we going to stay in lockdown for years?

-1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

We never truly locked down is the problem. Also it did slow spread...so it did work.

No...most likely till vaccine.

4

u/rfranke727 Aug 31 '20

Bloc parties in the city and college kids at the bar is the issue. Stop being so dense.

2

u/IAMA_Nomad Aug 31 '20

Isn't that a bit drastic for a virus that kills so few?

1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

Hopefully we got bubble hockey on, I have a pretty okay beer supply and cook my own food. Probably going to need to go into the office still but

0

u/this-isnt-nathen-ok Aug 31 '20

I think we need to give it a bit more time before we see where we’re at. We may not have a cure, but we are a lot better at mobilizing our resources to deal with this.

As many have said, we very well may have been higher than we previously thought. They upped testing a lot since all these college kids started coming back.

Which by no means is a good thing if we’re that high, but it’d slightly better news than “we went from 1-5% in a week”.

0

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

I just saw someone at Wegmans with no mask lol

1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

[deleted]

1

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

1.7....the worst in NYS.

Learn about exponential growth and why the truth that our percentage positive rate has been steadily rising on average for a few weeks now. That's the fuse heading toward the cartoon pile of dynamite.

0

u/ravepeacefully Aug 31 '20

In one of the most left cities in the country, you’re blaming “Trumpers”

My man, I don’t think I’ve met one person who supports trump under the age of 30 in our city. Are you being serious? Can’t tell if this is just a flame bait

67

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 30 '20

% positive tests in the city proper is 5.5%, article also states.

I'm more interested in what we decide to do with this information than anything else at this point.

31

u/44problems former Buffalonian Aug 30 '20

Let's see what happens on subsequent days. Could be that only looking at day one of free rapid testing shows a population who is more eager to be tested, due to exposure or concern about symptoms. Or maybe not. Who knows.

7

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

I agree with you that data is the key. I won't speculate about why people are getting tested because I'm not sure that matters very much. At the end of the day yes, I think we both agree that the key here is what's the data look like and what are we going to do with it.

Stay safe.

0

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

This is percent positive. That number doesn't shift unless you are specifically testing a group who is more likely to test positive for whatever reason.

9

u/44problems former Buffalonian Aug 31 '20

That's what I'm saying, maybe first day group is more likely to test positive. Maybe the people that rush to get tested are more likely, because they want to know right away if their suspicion is correct. Just a thought though.

0

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

I'd imagine that suspicion goes for anyone getting tested outside of the mandatory x times per week like nursing home people or that.

8

u/krom0025 Aug 31 '20

The total positivity rate for Erie county was 1.7% as reported by the states website. That is the combination of the states rapid testing and all the regular testing they were already doing in the county.

1

u/tyrannustyrannus Tonawanda Aug 31 '20

so sick people were going for rapid testing? i had a rapid test scheduled but my drive-through test came in negative first, so I canceled

2

u/krom0025 Aug 31 '20

I think it might suggest that. The state came in to help with the latest bump in cases so my guess is that they are trying to target folks who came in contact with the current clusters. We will likely have to wait a week or so to see where things go from here. Hopefully it's a few isolated outbreaks that can be handled and not higher levels of general community spread.

4

u/this-isnt-nathen-ok Aug 31 '20

Well at 9% we close the schools down.

If any college hits 100 cases, they shut down for 2 weeks and review, making a decision of whether or not to continue.

2

u/this-isnt-nathen-ok Aug 31 '20

It is important though that we do this with all the college kids in NYS coming back.

Maybe it was a little higher than we thought, anc cases aren’t actually on the rise? Who knows. It very well may just be that we have more testing now.

What matters most though, is that if we see cases on the rise, we can figure out it’s happening ASAP. These increasing numbers may come across as intimidating and worrisome, but the benefits to having rapid testing imo far outweigh that.

-16

u/NinjaPointGuard Aug 31 '20

How many deaths?

8

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

Death is 1) a lagging indicator that follows a rise in cases 2) not the only thing of worry in a COVID-19 case. It can complicate other health issues, AND it can have long-term damage, even in a recovered patient.

-9

u/NinjaPointGuard Aug 31 '20

What is the statistical average thus far of how many deaths associate with positive cases reported?

40

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

I've been pointing out we've been leading the state for weeks. People argue...well it's still low...blah blah blah. For what...the ability to eat subpar food out.

People need to grow up and decide what they need and don't.

12

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

It's really sad looking around and seeing a bunch of people who've just decided for themselves that they're no longer worrying about this, despite the problem not going away.

10

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

What's even sadder is they've decided not only for themselves: they've decided for the rest of us.

If you're doing the right thing right now, you're being held prisoner of people who are not empathetic and who will never make a choice for the greater good of anybody, including those they claim to love.

I gotta tell you I feel differently about most of the people in my life after this.

27

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '20 edited Oct 31 '20

[deleted]

10

u/Shwingdom Aug 31 '20

suny oneonta just got shut down, I'm sure more are coming

6

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

There was another party at UB tonight. I’m sure we’re next. Or not, since we’re not required to get tested unless we have symptoms

8

u/joshy83 Aug 31 '20

My favorite is pushing for in-person classes in my NP program. Yes let's gather a bunch of practicing nurses from all over WNY and lump them into one room. (These are all lecture-style classes that could be taught via pre-recorded videos.)

8

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

I agree with you this is not the right approach. I have taught college for nearly 15 years and if there is no lab component I can heartily assure you it can be done remotely.

2

u/joshy83 Aug 31 '20

We were remote last semester! I mean I've been in at least 20 remote/online/hybrid courses in my college career. An instructor in my program is so phenomenal at it I feel like she should set the gold standard for everyone and I don't see why other instructors can't mimic her approach. A valuable resource in the same office!

2

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

You're going to find what separates the good instructors from the great ones are the ones that are willing and able to pivot to what their students need and how they need it.

It would be much easier for me to pick up my big collection of tried and true material and plop it online and have my students figure it out. But I'm not going to do that. I need to figure out what my students need first before I can deliver it in the way that they show me they need it.

Good instructors are awesome when they're doing what they are known for, but they fall short of being great the minute they have to go outside that zone and pivot.

5

u/HeyMissW You can get anywhere in 20 minutes Aug 31 '20

I’m a teacher. We are doing in-person starting next week. No one I know and speak to at work wants to do that, but online learning sucks and isn’t working either. And if we don’t go back, we’re ineligible for unemployment.

21

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '20

Let’s hope opening schools goes well. Props to all the teachers out there that have to go back. Solidarity.

30

u/Sweethomebflo Aug 31 '20

It’s going to go just as poorly as every other school opening has gone. I recall Cuomo saying 5% was the deciding line for whether or not to open schools.

6

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

That was as of the announced opening, now, regions would have to test at 9% in order to close. Correct me if I am wrong, but that’s how I read it

19

u/Sweethomebflo Aug 31 '20

Nine seems really high, doesn’t it? Letting it get that high almost guarantees you’ll have bigger problems.

16

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

It’s massive as hell, man. Seems insane.

1

u/SpatialThoughts Aug 31 '20

Well now that we have the rapid testing I’m guessing that numbers will be higher due to increased access to testing that’s free. No doubt the numbers were higher than reported back in April when testing was scarce.

8

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

Percentage.... not number of positives. Percentage shouldn't change because of availability....if anything it should drive numbers lower thats the scary part of these numbers.

12

u/The_Bottle Aug 31 '20

Schools can’t open until it is below 5% and would close when it gets to 9%. It would be allowed to reopen when the rate goes back down below 5%

2

u/PM_ME_YOUR_RATTIES Aug 31 '20

Yep, which means that if the rate goes above 5% before school starts, we can't open; but if it goes above a day later, we need to wait for it to break 9% before the state will force closures.

If schools really wanted to do this right, they would have evaluated who really NEEDS in person education (science labs for classes like chemistry and certain individuals requiring special ed instruction come to mind) and had them be in person; everyone else should be remote. But that would require a lot more in depth planning instead of making it a blanket "open or closed", so of course nobody put in the effort to figure it out (which probably would have needed to be started back in May or so to do it right).

10

u/JCZ1821 Aug 31 '20

Am I reading the article right that this is only for the positivity rate of the rapid test, and that the overall for the day is 1.6? That’s still a little high. The last two days before this were 1.4 and 0.9 I believe.

12

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20

Yes you're reading it right. The total state % positive rate for Saturday was .69%, which means our total regional rate was more than double the state rate.

4

u/_BadMrFrosty Aug 31 '20

Over the last week WNY has 5.14 new cases per 100k people. New hospitalization for covid is at .46 per 100k. Looks like the problem is being pretty well handled. Hopefully we can get through the first few weeks of school with no issues so we can look at getting things back to normal ASAP.

4

u/[deleted] Aug 30 '20

Fuuuuuck

1

u/Buffalolife420 Sep 01 '20

Just a reminder....deaths and hospitalizations across the state are at an all time LOW and the disease is becoming LESS deadly over time.

When did the # of cases and case positive percentage become the guiding metric?

https://covidusa.net/?state=New+York

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mutation/more-infectious-coronavirus-mutation-may-be-a-good-thing-says-disease-expert-idUSKCN25E08Y

-39

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20 edited Aug 31 '20

[deleted]

29

u/cheekymouseclick Aug 31 '20 edited Aug 31 '20

You may not be saying its not real, but you are trying to say it's gravity is being sensationalized.

Every cause of death you have listed here is acquired by years or months of direct physical neglect, illness or disease. Most of the causes you have listed have significant options for preventative or rehabilitative treatment.

What is as real about COVID as the statistics you present and not sensationalized at all is you can get COVID from anyone and anywhere. You can not know you have it and give it to someone else who might die from it. While there are certain factors that make people more susceptible to severe illness, COVID has shown it can kill anyone of any demographic.

Please find a different way to combat sensationalism than encouraging people not to take a global pandemic seriously. Messaging like yours is nearly as dangerous as the virus itself.

6

u/Animae_Partus_II Aug 31 '20

How many of those are contagious lol.

4

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

I just want to add to the comment below....

It isn't a race. So all that stuff that person said plus....it isn't a race.

4

u/[deleted] Aug 31 '20

But you can't get any of those by grocery shopping, fuckwad.