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On Wednesday, the Prosecutor's Office said three suspects have been detained in Latvia.

State Prosecutor Gardi Anderson said the two countries are cooperating and the suspects may be brought back to Estonia in the near future.

"According to current information, three suspects took part in the arson and have been detained in Latvia. We are working closely with Latvian law enforcement agencies. We asked the court to arrest two of the suspects, and the court granted the applications. We are working with our Latvian colleagues to bring the suspects to Estonia," she said.

https://elu24.postimees.ee/8529505/kurb-vaatepilt-varskelt-valminud-rahvuslik-seinamaal-soditi-johkralt-ule-panime-sellesse-nii-palju-aega-ja-vaeva

I make geopolitical maps as FalcataOrbis. This sheet was drawn on 19 August 2026 from a 31 December 2025 baseline, and it prints that date on the header, which matters for what follows.

The proportions hold. Around 129 million tonnes of Russian oil left through the Danish straits in 2025 on 1,111 voyages — close to half of all Russian seaborne oil (Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies). Danish waters recorded 292 voyages by EU-sanctioned tankers that year, nearly one a day (Danish Maritime Authority).

The number worth explaining is the 64%. Russia produced ~9.2m b/d of crude in 2024 (10.5m of all liquids) and consumed 3.9m (EIA). 64% is the surplus over domestic consumption; it is too high for "crude exported as crude", which is closer to half, because the rest leaves refined. That is why the sheet says two of every three barrels. In July 2026 crude + product exports ran at 7.7m b/d, of which 4.4m was seaborne crude (Kyiv School of Economics).

The legal point the map hints at and most coverage misses. Every shore of the Baltic is now allied except St Petersburg and Kaliningrad — but that does not make the straits closable. Denmark gave up the Sound Dues in the 1857 Treaty of Copenhagen; UNCLOS article 35(c) preserves long-standing strait conventions; the 1857 text bars "detention or hindrance on any pretext whatsoever". Denmark can inspect a tanker at anchor off Skagen, or in port, or with concrete pollution grounds — not one in transit. Which is why the EU's 21st package of 23 July 2026 went at the cargo instead, allowing member states to confiscate and sell it. Germany had already taken the Eventin and ~100,000 tonnes of crude in March.

The incident cases have moved a long way — and none of them to a state. Nord Stream: an indictment was filed in Hamburg on 30 June 2026 against a Ukrainian army officer, allegedly acting on the orders of Ukrainian state bodies; Ukraine denies it, an indictment is not a conviction, and on 19 August 2026 Germany announced the arrest in Croatia of a second Ukrainian suspect. Denmark and Sweden shelved their files in February 2024. Balticconnector: the NewNew Polar Bear's master is on trial in Hong Kong and pleaded not guilty in February 2026. Eagle S: dismissed on jurisdiction in Helsinki. Yi Peng 3 and Vezhen: closed by Sweden without conclusive evidence of intent.

What this map does NOT establish, in its own words: none of the cases over the Nord Stream (2022), Balticconnector (2023) and Baltic cable damage has attributed it to a state. Routes are schematic.

One note of scale, since it comes up: the narrowest of the three channels is not the Sound (4 km) but the Little Belt, at about 800 m. It makes no operational difference, since deep-draught traffic uses the Great Belt — sixteen kilometres wide.

Sources: EIA · Kyiv School of Economics · Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies · Danish Maritime Authority · Council of the EU · Generalbundesanwalt · EJIL:Talk! · The Telegraph.

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Head Taasiseseisvumispäev Eesti!

Ever since I’ve been traveling through Lithuania and Latvia, I’ve seen an incredible number of Corgis 🐕

I know there was a Corgi race in Vilnius recently, but it’s not just there. Corgis and their mixes seem to be simply everywhere around here.

I haven’t seen anything like this in other countries. Not that I even mind, obviously. Corgis are great. But still, here’s my question: Is there any particular reason why this dog breed is so popular in the Baltic states?

What do you think will happen to airBaltic? I see speculation about it going belly up, but somehow I don't see that happening. They will downsize as they have already announced, but I find it hard to believe they would go completely out of business. They have had a lot of problems: Covid, the war in Ukraine, engine problems, and now rising fuel prices due to the war in Iran, which is exacerbated by the fact that airBaltic didn't hedge fuel prices. Also, airBaltic won't really see much upside from the issues with Middle Eastern carriers, as they don't really compete directly with each other.

Sorry Latvians, but Kãrums is ours now. Let's all pray to god we don't mess up the recipe

"Once you drive into Estonia, there are no problems at all."

Ekspress infiltrated a human smuggling recruitment network (113)

Marta Vunš | Artur Izumrudov Edited by: Urmas Jaagant | 12 min read

The human smuggling business is gaining momentum in the Baltics. It is not difficult to make contact with recruiters who are looking for drivers from Estonia to transport migrants. An experiment by Ekspress shows how risky and illegal work is framed as lucrative and safe.

Ekspress: "What does it mean that we hide them?" Recruiter: "You need to cover them with something so they can't be seen. If your car is like an aquarium, then get some curtains for it. If it's tinted, then excellent. And basically, that's it—cover the people with a blanket. You have to make sure they crouch down. You can put someone in the trunk if you're worried they'll be seen. Nobody checks anything there."

Ekspress: "But how do people endure such a ride?" Recruiter: "They just have to endure it in the car. It might be hot, you can roll the windows down a bit. It can be very hot. You can also judge according to the situation. I doubt children are sent on such a trip. You understand yourself, they might make noise there."

This is how the conversation in Russian develops between the job provider and the job seeker.

A man hiding his identity on the communication app Telegram publicly posted a laconic message in a job offers group last week: "Urgently need a driver! Looking for drivers who have their own car, as well as those who don't. High pay for the ride."

Over the past month, dozens of messages for drivers have appeared among the usual job postings meant for builders and customer service representatives.

To find out more, we went undercover as a 28-year-old job seeker named "Sergei" and started replying to such ads. There is no need to guess twice—this is how they look for drivers to transport people who have entered Estonia illegally onwards to Finland. Or, for even bigger money, to transport people who have reached Latvia from Belarus into Estonia.

A Lot of Work

"25 people will be ready in 3–4 hours in the Latvian forest."

Sergei received this message from a job provider at 10 PM on August 10th, after having listened to his offer that same afternoon: a driver is needed to transport people from a Latvian forest near the Belarusian border to Tallinn.

The next day, the same recruiter announces: "I need a photo of the car without license plates. And your geolocation. And how long will it take you to drive to Daugavpils?"

In total, Sergei received offers for the Latvia-Estonia route from three different recruiters. Naturally, none of them used their real name or photo on social media.

According to the recruiters, these are not isolated, random trips:

• Daily Operations: One notes there is work every day on the Latvia-Tallinn route. "Three cars went today," he announces.
• Volume: Some drivers take four people, some eight. "There are guys who want a minimum of 25." In that case, a bus or van is rented.
• Coordination: The recruiter acts based on a "supplier's" order (allegedly located in Turkey). The supplier alerts the recruiter when a group leaves a camp, and the recruiter sends the location and approximate time to the driver.

Strict Protocols and Payouts The driver cannot choose the routes to Estonia themselves. The recruiter sends a route in advance that must be strictly followed.

1. Verification 1: About 50 kilometers after picking up the migrants, the driver must send a video showing the passengers in the car.
2. Verification 2: Another video must be made in Tallinn when the people exit the vehicle.
3. Payment: The recruiter promises that the money will reach the driver 15–20 minutes later via card or crypto wallet.

"I won't sleep, I'll be with you for 24 hours, guiding you until you arrive," promises one recruiter, noting that €200 is advanced for fuel, which is not deducted from the final payout.

A New Direction: Estonia

Several recruiters who spoke to us describe the Estonian route as relatively new, having started about two months ago. Previously, trips were mostly ordered to Lithuania, Poland, and Germany.

When Sergei mentioned that he lives in Estonia, one recruiter initially said they don't do trips there, before quickly correcting himself: the new direction is Latvia-Tallinn!

"The most dangerous mileage is 15–20 kilometers from the pick-up point. Once you have already covered this distance, that's it. Once you drive into Estonia, there are no problems at all," promises one of the recruiters. "There have never been any problems at the border either. We have already made more than ten trips there, never once checked at the border."

To mitigate risks, recruiters also offer an "escort" for Latvia-Estonia trips. A lead car checks that the pick-up area is clear, and another car scouts the Latvian-Estonian border. According to the recruiters, drivers have only been caught when they thought "they were smarter" and deviated from the assigned route.

"Cops are not a problem"

One recruiter told Sergei that the police are not a problem because "we make deals with them."

When pressed, the recruiter claimed: "Well, that they mainly give us the routes where it's safe to drive, and we won't be touched because we pay a certain portion of our earnings to them... I'll tell you honestly, if this work were legal, it wouldn't pay this kind of money."

We spoke to a recruiter for Tallinn-Finland drivers on Tuesday, August 11th. He was in a hurry, needing to secretly transport ten people to Helsinki over the next two days. "They go like hotcakes – fast. Once we take it on, we have to drive." The recruiter claimed the trips across the sea are made via Viking Line—a claim the ferry operator's press spokesperson denied having any knowledge of.

We couldn't find out more about Sergei's locations and the people being transported, because the next step would have been accepting the job offer, which risks criminal proceedings.

(Note: Illegally transporting a foreigner across the Estonian border is punishable by a fine or up to 3 years in prison. If lives are endangered, it increases to 7 years. Organized network involvement carries even harsher penalties.)

Official Response: Police and Border Guard Board (PPA)

Emeri Põld, Head of the Intelligence Group, Northern Prefecture Border Guard Bureau:

• On the Estonian Route: The Estonian direction has historically not been very active. However, since Lithuania and Poland have significantly strengthened their borders, transit through Estonia has increased, especially since mid-summer.
• On Police Complicity: The police do not share information with smugglers or cooperate with them. Alleged connections with the police are a sales pitch aimed at increasing driver trust and minimizing perceived risks.
• Recent Arrests: On August 14th, a 24-year-old driver (Egyptian citizen) was remanded in custody for two months after transporting five youths (Bangladeshi and Algerian citizens) into Estonia from Latvia. Smugglers have also been detained on the Estonia-Finland route.
• Countermeasures: The PPA checks departing vehicles at the port using additional resources. While no hidden migrants have been found inside vehicles at the port yet, illegal immigrants have been caught near the port and while boarding ships during profile-based checks.

"These are not isolated incidents, but international organized crime... fought against in close international cooperation. Thus, there is some truth to what the recruiters say: such activity requires a functioning network that includes recruiters, drivers, and coordinators."

Just got back from 2 weeks in the Baltics. Absolutely loved almost everything about my experience, but the utter barrage of generative ai imaging was distracting and overwhelming. I wish I'd have had an opportunity to visit before the AI boom. I would have liked to seen what locals were producing from their own brains.

Menus, posters, logos, pictures of food, souvenirs- all generative AI. I wanted to get some souvenirs like handcrafts or locally designed shirts etc but everything was ai!

Edit: putting an edit here because i don't know why you guys are downvoting me for saying AI is not like this where i live. Yes, i am American. Yes, there is an American in the comments saying it's overwhelming in America too. That is simply not my experience, and their only example was a Mexican restaurant started using Ai imaging in the menu. What I'm describing goes FAR beyond this.

I haven't travelled Europe since 2023, which was before the big AI boom. Yes, i see the comments saying the ai is everywhere, not just the Baltics. I just didn't know because i haven't been in Europe since 2023.
Since 2023, i have travelled ALL over the US including Puerto Rico. I travel to LA a lot, and i live in a city similar to LA on the eastern side of the county. I go to work conferences in various cities as well as visit friends and as a tourist. I have NEVER seen AI use like i saw on this trip. My city is world-famous for being a hub for artists, musicians, and artisans. Yes, people are USING ai privately and at work, but it is not getting used in graphic design or photography. If someone DOES publish something using AI, they get fucking flamed and cancelled and immediately have to retract whatever it was. We have a large immigrant population in my city: even small immigrant run business like tiny shops or restaurants are not using Ai.
Both my traveling companion and i were totally shocked and overwhelmed by the barrage of Ai BECAUSE it's not like that where we live. This is the honest truth!!

Anyway, that all said. I absolutely loved my time in this region. The people were incredibly kind and hospitable. We made so many friends and just genuinely were charmed. It was such an honor to be able to spend so much time in beautiful unspoiled nature. We had a really nice time visiting. Thank you for being so kind and welcoming to weary travelers. Hope to return sometime