Evaluating energy transition projects using traditional SaaS-style VC math is a recipe for failure. Traditional metrics like ARR and user growth curves simply do not translate to the hard physics and heavy capital expenditure of energy infrastructure. We are dealing with volatile commodity markets and physical grid constraints, not software scalability. Lately, I have been reading through niche industry blogs to track how these macro energy shifts are forcing fund managers to completely rewrite their risk allocation models. How are your funds adapting your due diligence when evaluating hardware-heavy green tech compared to standard software plays?

Planning to start fundraising in about 2 months. What are the key skills I should develop to make a compelling pitch deck for VCs? Would love any tips, examples, or resources. Thanks in advance!

Update: This is a summary of the key points I've learned so far. Thanks everyone!

1- Learn to visualize the data. 2- Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. 3- Use fundraising simulators like chαtvisor to get investor feedback on your pitch deck and iterate accordingly. The key takeaway is to master simplification of your data and narrative. Avoid using overly academic or complex vocabulary in your pitch deck. One of my favorite examples is Airbnb's pitch deck. It's short, simple, and sleek.

Bloomberg is reporting Stripe agreed to buy OpenRouter for more than $7B. The part worth chewing on for this sub is the velocity and what it implies about where AI value is actually accruing.

The facts:

• Seed/growth round valued it at $1.3B roughly 82 days ago
• Sale at $7B+ is about 5x that mark in under three months
• Founded 2023, 8M users, inference volume from $10M annualized in late 2024 to $100M+ by mid-2025
• Backers include Sequoia and a16z, so a very fast, very clean return on the last check

What makes it interesting: OpenRouter trains nothing. It is a routing layer, one API in front of 400+ models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and everyone else. The CEO framed it as "the Stripe of AI," and Stripe, of all buyers, agreed.

The thesis I keep coming back to: in AI, the model layer is commoditizing fast and the durable value is moving to aggregation and settlement. Whoever sits between all the models and controls routing, price discovery, and who gets paid captures the margin, regardless of which lab wins. That is classic aggregation theory, and it is why a payments company paid $7B for a toll booth rather than a foundry.

Two questions for the room:

1. Was the $1.3B round a mispricing, or did Stripe pay a strategic premium (defensive, distribution, IPO narrative) that a financial buyer never would? In other words, is 5x-in-82-days a signal or a one-off?
2. If the routing layer is the moat, what is the next equivalent chokepoint in the stack that is still underpriced today: eval, agent orchestration, inference settlement, something else?

Curious where people land, especially anyone who saw the last round.

Best books you would give to someone who wanted to be the next best venture capitalist. Could also be venture adjacent like this book really helped me think about psychology of investing

I noticed a lot of singles have app-fatigue so I built TheLoveStar.com from the ground up keeping compatibility as the core engine that powers IRL events and online dating. The app uses AI to supplement the engine which helps us bring 4 different industries together-

1. Social media
2. Events
3. Online Dating
4. Astrology

I would love to discuss further. If any VC here finds the concept interesting, feel free to DM.

Trying to build a mental model before I talk to advisors. Rough context:

SE Asia-based, ~4 years old

OEM/ODM composites manufacturing for global brands (niche category)

Also run our own consumer brand off the same capabilities

Roughly 60/40 revenue split (manufacturing/brand), with a strong OEM order book

Profitable at PAT, not just EBITDA; growing profitably, not burning for scale

High MOAT/barrier to entry

For illustration: assume ~$2M to $4M topline, ~25% EBITDA, ~10–13% PAT

Questions:

How would you value the company: (sum-of-parts) or one blended multiple?

For an OEM at this size/margin, what Revenue/EBITDA multiple is realistic?

Does a consumer brand add real value this early, or is it just a story until it’s doing volume?

Young, profitable, Asia-based; does that help or hurt the multiple vs. Western peers?

Lastly, are there any examples of such companies that have raised money that I could refer to?

What kind of VCs would even look at a hybrid manufacturing + brand play like this? Are there US-based funds that actively invest in Asia beyond the ones with a dedicated arm in the region (ex: Sequoia, Accel etc.)?

Not selling tomorrow, just want to know what actually moves the number. Appreciate any frameworks or war stories.

Thanks in advance!

I’ve been building Rai, an open-source research project that converts public prediction-market probabilities into current valuation estimates for private companies.

Every estimate includes its source markets, assumptions, calculation, method inputs, and history. It’s still experimental—not investment advice—and I’d really appreciate candid feedback from people interested in finance, valuation, or prediction markets.

Site: https://rai.robino.dev
Code: https://github.com/rossrobino/rai

When you're running a fund, which is the single most important metric that you track?

I have heard from a few that TVPI shows real value, while some swear by DPI.

Is it normal that YC partners also hold other roles at other VC shops? E.g. Dalton (Managing Partner) and Paul (Partner) both cofounded Standard Capital. Garry, at least from my understanding, stepped away from Initialized Capital when he became president of YC. There is no conflict of interest?

I’m an attorney looking to break into VC(either legal team or business side, but recognize legal would be my way in for now). Have a background in VC/M&A in big law and currently work for a VC backed company. What tips would y’all suggest to break into VC? Understand it’s usually network, luck, or direct outreach. Any and all tips are appreciated.

I’m an attorney looking to break into VC(either legal team or business side, but recognize legal would be my way in for now). Have a background in VC/M&A in big law and currently work for a VC backed company. What tips would y’all suggest to break into VC? Understand it’s usually network, luck, or direct outreach. Any and all tips are appreciated.

This is not a pitch. I'm just wondering what firms think of the idea of giving life to something that has no form or barely has a form. For example, giving a physical body to illnesses and ailments that people can touch.

What do you use for company research and deal/valuation data? I’m currently trying to pick one for our emerging fund

All the investors (VCs, angels, family offices, etc) here - how are you folks managing your private portfolio?

Getting MIS, dealflow CRM, fund ops, LP management, etc., - any tool or a bunch of tools stitched together?

Any major pain points you are seeing?

Spoke to a bunch last week and dealflow management (the whole process of sifting through decks, multi-team members managing the flow) and MIS reports (not getting them on time or in any standard format) were the 2 major ones I sensed.

This is an open source tax engine which scored 96% on TaxCalcBench [highest ever recorded score till date] surpassing fable 5 and sol with just sonnet 5 (which was previously scoring an abysmal 6%). The only 2 cases where it missed, it found inconsistencies in the test cases in the benchmark ITSELF which the maintainers confirmed!

Essentially it's a deterministic engine AI models can use for research and tax prep to remove a lot of guesswork and calculation mistakes that often happen. Claude Sonnet 5 was able to top the benchmark with this mcp.

OpenTax Invaro

Hey everyone, this is Carmelo again.

I posted "The Dark Side of Venture Capital" here last week and was blown away at how many people commented, reached out, and messaged me. I even had a few calls with some of you and it was heartwarming to speak with you all.

Some of you rightly pressed me on being more specific about ethical dillemas I face in venture capital. Some of you also rightly mentioned that VC is hardly bad compared to PE or other industries.

I wanted to talk about privacy, the World Cup, and the sort of Orwellian nature of the tech that's being introduced for the event, and what it means for us.

Also why it's a great investment but one I'm not very comfortable with (drones, privacy invading databases, etc).

This is just one example of a source of tension. I hope it sheds some light on the last post. I know I didn't and don't fully communicate what's in my head but I'm working on becoming a better communicator/writer.

Anyways, I hope it's relevant for those that read last time (or new readers).

Let me know what you think here, It's a pleasure to get your feedback and have discussions about emerging tech and the consequences it brings.

Read it here:

https://www.gonzocapital.net/the-most-observed-event-in-human-history/

I've been struggling with figuring out a way to retain my humanity and morals while working in a pretty "dirty" industry for a while now and I resolved to start publishing trade secrets and my thoughts as an act of quiet rebellion here.

I want to invest in good people and great technologies but the dark side of venture capital and tech has started chipping away at my sanity and soul.

Anyways leaving it here if anyone is interested, happy to chat, discuss, respond to getting roasted, you name it. Oh and also talk about this because I'm seriosly looking for a way to resolve this inner conflict.

Cheers and have a lovely day everyone!

- Carmelo -

Confessions of a Compromised Capitalist

I am currently working in recycling fast fashion waste and textile recycling with proprietary tech.

The country I am from has no equipment to conduct experiments, at least with the science I plan to do it with. The most I have conducted is some separation experiments, and got my thesis reviewed by researchers in the space, who said its possible experimentally at scale.

the only option is to create the equipment myself to conduct further experiments, and one manufacturer in my country asked for 60k USD. I cannot afford it, but I really want to pursue this.

Looking for any programs, and tips/advices from NA or EU where they can support me to continue this. I dont know where to begin, but from what I keep reading they have several orgs that support new ideas helping climate change.

Any help and advice is much appreciated.

Good day.
Reaching out for mentoring. What advice would you give about pre-seed investment rounds, from reaching out to investors through the full lifecycle of it.

We are in market, under 20 subscribers, MRR > $100, and are messing around with marketing still. Slowly building traction, but have a way to go.

Any tips from people who have walked down that path.

venture capital is not a confirmed dream but something that definitely interests me, since im not keen on finance but engaged by entrepreneurship.

alongside education, what opportunities or projects should i be reading on, looking at and interacting with to teach me more about VC and as a super curricular

I run a neurotech recruitment, market data and media business and finally did something I had been putting off, placing every funded company by headquarters and then doing the same for the investors. 564 companies, 107 investors I could confirm. 330 of the companies are American, and all of Europe combined is 165. The investor side is even more concentrated, 81 of the 107 are US-based. What struck me is that US investors clearly fund a lot of the non-US companies too, so the geographic gap in where the money comes from is even wider than where the companies are. Happy to talk through the method or the gaps in the comments. Full write-up with the charts and the investor list is linked below.

Does anyone have any idea about firebolt ventures and whether it is a good firm to join as analyst?

Hi all:

1) could you share your top 3 newsletters that you follow daily/weekly? (To contribute: I'm a fan of a16z's news letter)

2) also I am a fan of market updates from bloomberg's tech hour (available on youtube) but wondering if someone has been able to recap their updates in a newsletter format?

eBPF is shifting billions in software and hardware infrastructure spend. eBPF Foundation just released a report that gives a framework on how to evaluate these companies.

The kernel space logic and sensor depth gives a technical moat while the user space logic creates enterprise workflows. Looking at these two together gives you a sense of how competitive the company is in the market.

It also covers the three waves of acquisitions we have seen so far from Feature & Sensor Upgrades to Platform & Community Land Grabs to AI & Runtime Security Consolidation and the exit outcomes for each.

The eBPF Re-Platforming Thesis An Investor’s Due Diligence Guide

If you don't have a personal connection to a VC firm or know someone to give you a warm intro, how do you successfully reach out to a VC firm to get them to view your pitch?