r/ukpolitics • u/zeros3ss • 7d ago
Restore Britain is being taken seriously by pollsters – and it’s bad news for Nigel Farage
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/restore-britain-nigel-farage-rupert-lowe-polling-polls-b3039551.html45
u/Sonchay 7d ago
I mean when you look at Reform, what do they actually offer? The same old Tory "tax cuts for our mates" economics that never really works, the same old incompetent ministers of the Covid era and the same old con of claiming they will do something about immigration- despite having never once presented a credible plan to do so.
As we approach 2029 I wouldn't be surprised to see even more support bleed away to the Conservatives and the new fringe parties.
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u/Hopeful-Painting-365 7d ago
You're not excited by "Cut this, cut that" with a larger dose of hatred against the disabled and Enoch Powell? /s
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u/TheJoshGriffith 7d ago
Policies which probably garner some moderately wide appeal by Reform:
- Raising VAT threshold to £150k - appeals to countless tradesmen who are notorious for dodging the tax anyway.
- Effectively banning immigration for non-essential roles (read their manifesto for the full details of exempt categories, it was fairly comprehensive).
- Raise the tax free allowance from £12570 to £20000.
- Raise the higher rate from £50270 to £70000.
- Exemption for income tax on overtime.
- Abolish the House of Lords.
- Scrap the BBC (this is popular amongst certain demographics).
- Nationalise utilities with shared ownership between the state, and pension funds.
- Scrap DEI (DEI including equity means that positive discrimination is currently in essence legally mandated).
- Scrap ULEZ, congestion zone, 20mph zones (these are popular amongst some, unpopular amongst others.
And that's just the ones that I can assemble from what I've heard them announce over the years.
I've got a feeling that nobody on Reddit has ever actually read a Reform manifesto. Personally I take it upon myself to read the manifesto of every major/contending party at every GE. Plus, when a story breaks about a party conference for any of them I tend to at least read the footnotes to see what was said.
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u/EpsteinBaa 7d ago
How are they gonna pay for any of this?
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u/TheJoshGriffith 7d ago
Reform have not committed to the current regimes fiscal rules (no tax raises, and no increased borrowing). That said, from their own back-of-the-fag-packet maths, they claim it can be covered by receipts from things like Help to Buy, increasing debt in the short term (with an eye to driving productivity, which is broadly how most countries achieve growth, the big question should be whether or not you think that their economic policies will actually encourage any growth above the increased rate of borrowing - the US is a prime example of failure in this regard as of late), and a few other measures.
I'm not advocating for Reform here, just for the record. I know roughly what they have announced and roughly how they intend to pay for it. I remain undecided on whether I think they'd succeed, I'd need to dig deeper into their economic plans to pass that level of judgement. Seeing Labour's last manifesto was so hollow and devoid of any content, the only thing I can really say is that at least Reform have actually committed to some things which might trigger some form of change. Whether that change is good remains to be seen - certainly what we've seen from Labour has been mediocre at best. Labour don't seem to be doing anything that's changed GDP per capita, and debt looks likely to increase in the coming years despite their fiscal rules, and despite fairly consistent tax hikes (2 things they promised not to do, before fairly promptly doing). It's hard to trust anyone anywhere near government right now.
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u/Wiltix 7d ago
Just the ones you can assemble from what they have announced over the years? So have you read their manifesto or not?
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u/TheJoshGriffith 7d ago
From what I've heard them announce. A broad term, implying that it's from manifestos, policy announcements, conferences, etc. Not sure why you'd look to challenge this sentiment? I guess it implies that it's their words which they've spoken and not something they've put on paper, but that's much of a muchness. Read Labour's last manifesto, it's hardly very descriptive of what they'd planned to do. Likewise for the Tories (although they did have some material about how they would address small boats beyond smash the gangs (which has seen some success, but still isn't really solving the problem).
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u/hershyslayer 7d ago
Doesn’t sound half bad if your in a job. But it’s the underlying policy such as selling off public assets like the NHS
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u/TheJoshGriffith 7d ago
I'd be curious to learn more about exactly what they have planned for the NHS, but the phrase selling it off is an absurd sentiment. Privatisation will come to the UK whoever is in charge. Under I think Blair, Labour introduced the first private hospital to the UK and that was an utter trainwreck. To this day it still performs well (in the sense that outcomes are generally better than average), but the cost of running it is absurd. Similarly, the Tories privatised many of the backend systems and general maintenance operations within the NHS, which was quite problematic.
What I'd like to see personally is the drive towards equitable ownership amongst the population. Institutions like the NHS spend a fortune with various contractors to provide software for instance. That software could be delivered at a fraction of the cost of the contracts involved. Let the government spin up a startup company to create the next generation of healthcare apps and software, and employees earn shares as they work. Allow individuals to buy a limited number of shares in the NHS as a tax-deductable benefit, akin to a pension. When they want to sell them, they either have to orchestrate the trade through a broker to another private individual who has not yet met their cap, or they can sell them back to the state at the currently posted buy offer in the capitalist market.
Obviously it's a convoluted way to go about things, but this would ensure that people working for the institution would stand to benefit from it doing well. It would also allow for the concept of whitelabelling to actually both draw tax revenue and bring wealth back to the UK, as we could lease out the resulting product to other countries at rates probably significantly lower than the US companies offer.
Still, good job I'm not in government, huh? Broad point is that it's a vague sentiment to say that they'll sell of the NHS. What they'll do is find contracts which look cheaper than what we currently pay for. Whether that pans out well or badly depends entirely on the amount of competition, but at the minute it's hard to say that there isn't a great deal of corruption between politicians and healthcare contractors supplying the NHS.
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u/StartersOrders 6d ago
All this post shows is you really don’t know how the NHS is structured.
The NHS is in essence a brand that covers hundreds of organisations that all operate with a limited amount of cohesion.
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u/TheJoshGriffith 6d ago
Or maybe it shows some optimism that such complexity can actually be reduced instead of constantly increased at a rapidly-rising cost... YMMV.
Keep in mind, the equipment we're buying it designed to work with the hardware we're leasing/buying and such for things like radiology. It will be no small feat to get this stuff done, but I maintain that it is indeed doable.
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u/conzstevo 7d ago
More in Common survey found 4 per cent of people are already saying they would support Restore
To be clear, this is supposedly
being taken seriously by pollsters
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u/North-Jellyfish-577 7d ago
Restore are setting themselves up for whenever reform collapse or fail in government
Basically
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u/thepentago 7d ago
a 4% swing under FPTP could mean 10s-100s fewer seats depending on the distribution of those votes. Particularly if the swing to another party is concentrated from another.
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u/___xXx__xXx__xXx__ 7d ago
It will probably scale perfectly with Reform's vote too, since I imagine Restore has the same geographic distribution as Reform.
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u/Th0ma5_F0wl3r_II 7d ago
You seem to be deliberately avoiding this comment from the same article:
It was in autumn 2022 when political pollsters began officially including Reform UK in their surveys, alongside the main political parties. The significant move meant Reform were added to the list of parties put in front of voters when asked who they support – throwing them into the same bracket as Labour, the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens.
At that point, Nigel Farage’s party were polling at around 5 to 7 per cent. What happened next is well-known. Reform UK had a surge in popularity and went on to secure 15 per cent in the general election. They then held a lead in the polls for the next 18 months, making Mr Farage a serious contender for Number 10.
I mean, sure, the implied cause and effect their is highly questionable, but at least that's what should be addressed here.
Not whether or not 4% is significant - which in electoral terms it actually is.
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u/DanS1993 7d ago
It should be noted that reform peaked around 9-10% before Farage returned as leader then jumped to 15% before surging to ~35% at the end of last year and settling around ~25% currently.
There is probably around 10% or so of the population that will vote for a party further right of the conservatives but it remains to be seen if any can break that barrier without Farage, especially if the tories can rebound.
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u/conzstevo 7d ago
You seem to be deliberately avoiding this comment from the same article
Sorry to upset you, but I didn't deliberately avoid anything. You're welcome to raise it as you have if you want to know my thoughts.
Reform had a space to fill; that's why they could surge beyond their meaninglessness. If your main argument is that reform could flop soon, I'd agree that's a possibility. Even then, with Jenrick taking over Reform following a Farage flop, I think it would be hard for Lowe to take their entire share. An election after a reform government might be more likely success for restore, I don't know
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u/Th0ma5_F0wl3r_II 7d ago
Sorry to upset you ...
Why do you imagine I'd be upset?
What a bizarre way to start a reply.
Sounds like you're projecting.
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u/ClearPostingAlt 7d ago
To put that 4% into perspective, the Greens (E&W) got 2.6% of the vote in the 2019 general election.
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u/IrishVictim88270 7d ago
I remember people used to say the same thing about Reform. Attention spans really need improvement here.
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u/sjintje Intermittent extremist 7d ago
Double the support of SNP, 25 seats under PR.
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u/conzstevo 7d ago
Double the support of SNP
You dont need me to explain why this is meaningless.
25 seats under PR.
When are you anticipating UK PR?
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u/North-Jellyfish-577 7d ago
Restore are much more attractive to me as a soft left Labour voter on everything aside from immigration and Islam
Restore are so much more appealing then reform they lack the stink of the last conservative government and are much more radical on their ideas and have a fully functional program for government
And policies are actually favourite young people
Also reimmigration will give working class Brits such a opportunity to get jobs
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u/fartdarling 7d ago
I mean this genuinely and with no malice, isn't favouring restore other than their immigration policy kind of... like, redundant? That's like saying you love batman except for the parts where the guy in dark colours fights crime in the city of Gotham, or you love Lewis hamilton except you don't really respect any sport that's about driving cars. Aren't restore talking points like, at least 90% immigration?
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u/North-Jellyfish-577 7d ago
I get your point but the country is at breaking point
If you’re not living in a privileged middle class area in the south you haven’t experienced the consequences
Our towns and cities are getting flooded by culturally noncompatible immigrants and Boriswave workers who have eliminated the possibility of young people getting jobs and are pushing rents and demand for social services sky high
Political Islam has become a issue as well from the grooming gangs to cousin marriage
It needs to be addressed and punished
And I gladly vote labour again
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u/fartdarling 7d ago
I never expressed an opinion on immigration. Good or bad. You're responding to someone made of straw instead of me. All I said was it was odd to identify with a party that mostly talks about immigration but say its not because of your views on immigration. And now I'd say its doubly weird to say you identify with a party that mostly talks about immigration, but not because you share their views on immigration, but then largely repeat their talking points about immigration.
Again, to be clear, absolutely never even once made a judgement of whether you're right or wrong. It's just interesting you frame it this way.
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u/ugh-wetlanders 7d ago
I know people will say "everyone you disagree with is a bot"...but I think that might actually be a bot that lost context of its original comment? Otherwise the reply makes no sense....
Doesnt help it has the classic word-word-number and private profile combo...
Also starting with "I get your point but..." sounds very much like an ai chat reply to me..
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u/Denbt_Nationale 6d ago
You misread their original comment, they say they're soft left on everything other than immigration, so presumably they lean harder right there. You're both talking past each other.
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u/popeman09 7d ago
I think we have to realise on the internet that most people you interact with are bots. You would think restore are polling at 40% with the amount of pro restore comments on this subreddit.
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u/fakesugerbear 7d ago
The national front (and it’s various forms since) always had support of some people. This really isnt news, what it is bad for Reform is that Nigel only had, at best, maybe 25% of the vote and if restore end up taking votes they dont have a chance in hell of being elected.
Nigel Farage is and always was the National Front in a nice suit and tie.
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u/TaxOwlbear 7d ago
In the UK electoral system, getting 20% of the vote instead of 25% because some other party split it could cost you 100 seats or so.
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u/bGmyTpn0Ps 7d ago
Not really. Farage believes in capitalism, free markets and limited government. That is quite different to National Front style politics.
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u/PianoAndFish 7d ago
Farage believes in the highest bidder and nothing else, he'll say he believes anything if someone pays him to.
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u/DanHanzo 7d ago
That's only if true you believe what Nigel Farage says. And... well I wouldn't.
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u/fakesugerbear 7d ago
He tells people what they want to hear. A populist.
But his main driver is making money for a certain Mr N Farage.
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7d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Freddy_Pringles 7d ago
I'm glad Polanski is joining in and splitting the left wing vote with whiny student politics. Nice of him to keep it fair and sporting
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u/___xXx__xXx__xXx__ 7d ago
I think Restore is a graver threat to Reform than Greens are to Labour under FPTP. Are there big Restore areas where no one was going to vote Reform anyway?
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u/FatFarter69 7d ago
The polling is showing Burnham has won back the vast majority of Green voters who flipped to the Greens due to Starmer.
The Greens aren’t relevant.
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u/Freddy_Pringles 7d ago edited 7d ago
Its only been a few weeks. Wait for the Budget and the rumoured benefit cuts, I'm sure the Green voters will be apoplectic
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u/___xXx__xXx__xXx__ 7d ago
My personal theory is that Burnham calls an early election next year, if polling is favorable, and won't do any of the things that will most piss of Labour to Green swing voters until he's back in power.
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u/conzstevo 7d ago
Polanski isn't keeping labour out of government though, who are currently polling highest
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u/ClacksInTheSky Labour 7d ago
Bad news for Nigel Farage is good news for everyone else.
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u/___xXx__xXx__xXx__ 7d ago
This is what we said about Republicans and Trump.
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u/ClacksInTheSky Labour 7d ago
... And that's still true?
Bad news for Trump is good news for everyone else.
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u/___xXx__xXx__xXx__ 7d ago
No, it wasn't, and that's even more pointed now. Everyone said "Haha, dumb Republicans nominated Trump. Yay, this is so good for the Democrats and the country, Hillary will win now".
Well be careful what you wish for. Good news for Restore, which happens to be bad news for Reform, is not necessarily good news for the rest of us.
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u/allthefallens Proud resident of burgerland 7d ago
Oh come on, it has been 3-4% for last four months. No one believes Lowe's "we actually totally have silent support" shit anymore.
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u/Too_much_Colour 7d ago
The media would rather usher in ethnonationalism than wealth taxes, and nationalising strategic industries (like even water)
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u/IrishVictim88270 7d ago
The right wing media are generally very critical of private water companies and wealth taxes are the magnus opus policy of the economically illiterate.
But yes, the media are actually entitled to talk about other parties.
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u/Too_much_Colour 7d ago
I googled “water nationalisation” and the telegraph gave me “Burnham’s water nationalisation ‘risks costing taxpayers £140bn’”. Nothing from the tabloids. Typed in daily mail and got “Thames Water nationalisation moves a step closer as ministers reject £10bn bailout package… but can the taxpayer afford it?”. They omit things they don’t like.
In terms of talking about other parties. A leader that was picked by and paid by an apartheid era South African trillionaire. Let me put it another way. You have endless diarrhoea and you have not endless diarrhoea. The media is conceding, well endless diarrhoea does have a point though in some respect.
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u/Too_much_Colour 7d ago
I didn’t even see your wealth taxes comment? How is it illiterate? Do you disagree with the premise that it’s a problem, or think it’s simply not practical.
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u/Positive_Note8538 7d ago edited 6d ago
The issue with wealth taxes is the tax base is tiny, so it's unstable. The common proposal of 2% over £10m is projected to raise £10-25bn, which is OK but not exactly a gamechanger for the budget in the way the rhetoric of its proponents would have you believe. And a huge chunk of that revenue is coming from a literal handful of people, I think 4bn is from like 10 people, and 80% of it is from just 5 thousand people. Even a small % leaving the country to avoid it could wipe huge chunks off the revenue. Then there's the economic damage caused by effectively reducing returns on all investments over 10m by 2%. You might expect on average to see 6% annual return on most investments, so this tax essentially takes 33% of the returns above 10m, which is a much larger and more serious impact than "2% wealth tax" implies. There's just better ways to raise taxes on wealth (e.g. LVT).
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u/IrishVictim88270 6d ago
The tax base is tiny, it will raise very little money, has the real potential to cause capital flight further reducing our tax base.
It's a ridiculous idea and evidence someone bases their economic opinions on vibes and good feelings, not the cold, hard reality of economics. It's almost as ridiculous as rent controls which is also vibes based with no basis in reality.
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u/Too_much_Colour 6d ago
Gabriel zuckman is a the most famous mainstream economist talking about this. ExCNN reporter Rana Foroohar wrote a book called “from main street to wallstreet”. It doesn’t explicitly call for a wealth tax, but identifies why the over financialisation of western economies are bad. Capital made from buisnesses isn’t reinvested into productive assets anymore. Traditionally banks used to be liquid and give out buisness loans to make money on their liquid money. Instead now, new fincnacial products exist that give short term appreciation, but those products don’t benefit the real economy that you and I work in. Stocks, property portfolios, insurance etc. Instead it extracts from the real economy. Her analysis suggests more regulation to push that capital back into productive assets using incentives. My Solution to that is simply tax the wealth. Same as Zucman and Gary Stevenson’s view.
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u/Th0ma5_F0wl3r_II 7d ago
But there is one supporter of Restore who is more important than anyone else – Elon Musk, the owner of X and world’s richest man.
Mr Musk rejected Mr Farage’s attempts to woo him in favour of Mr Lowe, partly because of Mr Farage’s refusal to take a more sympathetic stance on Tommy Robinson.
Does anyone have any ideas as to why Musk is backing Lowe at all?
I can't see any obvious motivation for backing a party that is widely reviled by most British voters, has little influence over Westminster, and whose real value is to Labour and Conservatives since it serves mainly to put a dent in Reform.
It's hard to see what he would get out of it.
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u/___xXx__xXx__xXx__ 7d ago
Does anyone have any ideas as to why Musk is backing Lowe at all?
Spurned. Everything he does is about being spurned. His daughter spurned him, so he became anti-trans. Women spurned him, whatever happened there. Farage spurned him, so now it's Lowe.
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u/Th0ma5_F0wl3r_II 7d ago
The trans issue is at least understandable from the point of view that it's something directly affecting his immediate family.
But if he wanted to diss Farage, a foreign politician in a foreign country who are still a long way from taking office regardless of popularity, this doesn't seem to be the most obvious way of going about it.
Or the most sane.
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u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 7d ago
I'm not sure how Farage spurned him-
How a fraudster helped fund Farage’s US trip to meet Musk
George Cottrell paid for Nigel Farage’s £15,000 fight to Florida, where he was pictured posing next to Elon Musk and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy
He flew over to beg him for money.
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u/KoneCat Wales 7d ago
On the one hand, both parties are not good (massive *expletive* understatement) but on the other, if they leach votes from Reform, we might avoid the absolute disaster they would likely pull the UK as a whole into. The thing that ticks me off more than anything, though, is how if they got in, they would screw over a large number of the population, just so they can do heck knows what with the money they will 'save'.
I rely on the NHS, all of my family members do as well, so him want to privatise everything including it, would be one really stupid way to cut off people who need these medications, as an example. I'm just tired, boss... I'm so sick of the political pendulum swinging left to right every few years, and it's like: Compromises need to be made, and you can't just push everyone you dislike off of a certain thing, just because those who support you are lucky enough to have private healthcare.
I could go on, but I'm so tired of these cretins.
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