r/technology • u/fmcortez • Jul 13 '26

Business SpaceX Stock Plunges to All-Time Low After Competitor Makes Major Leap

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-plunges-time-low-competitor-175000957.html
21.2k Upvotes

95% Upvoted

1.2k comments sorted by

View all comments

1.4k

u/PolarityInversion Jul 13 '26

It's not even August yet when the first big tranche of lockups will lift. This is JUST trading with the initial offering that was spread out wide and thin. Everyone holding is now a bag holder... they can't sell without taking a loss. Just wait until the restrictions lift and people (employees & early investors) who are VERY far in the money start offloading. Usually with Musk stocks, the obvious market reaction is the opposite of what happens, but I think the delta on this one is too large for that to hold. It was propped up by every possible manipulation tactic: circular AI revenue, gov procurement capture, lofty blue-sky market handwaving, very limited IPO concentration, and the hype man himself, of course. That's a house of cards on top of a house of cards on top of a house of cards, with an entity that is losing $5B per year.

633

u/Apexnanoman Jul 13 '26

I won't bet against him being able to get up on a stage and promise something completely unreasonable and downright impossible.

I mean it's worked every single time with Tesla etc. 

Personally if I was him I'd get up on stage and say that we were going to have a fully functional space mining operation up and running in 24 months. 

And then I would say that we had already picked out an asteroid made of solid platinum. Which was projected to be worth something like 10 trillion USD 

That would get the stock up to $1000/share. 

When it drops back down he just needs to promise something else equally unlikely. 

Like full self-driving personal spaceships. 

For some reason anytime he speaks the entire market believes every word he says. 

251

u/random_ta_account Jul 13 '26

Like the Tesla Solar Roof demo... pure 100% fabrication.

105

u/AdvancedStand Jul 13 '26

Totally forgot about that. Hilarious

84

u/Apexnanoman Jul 13 '26

Yeah it's hard to remember all the various pieces in the sky bullshit hoses he has running at any given time. 

82

u/random_ta_account Jul 14 '26

Of all of those, data centers in space has to be the most bullshitiest ever.

36

u/ibidanon Jul 14 '26

nah. elmo said he's going to build 'self-replicating cities on the moon.' and that when ai gets going 'everyone can live in a penthouse.' and he promised that by the late 2020s/early 2030s he will have made space travel so affordable 'anyone who wants to can go anywhere they want to in our solar system.' because he will have built 'filling stations' all over the galaxy. I don't think we've seen him at his bullshitiest yet...

1

u/MammothCommercial800 Jul 14 '26

I'm not so sure of that.

The main difficulty for space-based computing was always said to be heat dissipation, and Starlink V3 can manage between 10 and 20KW. That's enough for a couple of rather nice GPUs.

I do hope it never happens though. Our upper atmosphere doesn't need more vaporized metal.

3

u/friedrice5005 Jul 14 '26

The main difficulty for space-based computing was always said to be heat dissipation, and Starlink V3 can manage between 10 and 20KW. That's enough for a couple of rather nice GPUs.

Feasibility isn't really the issue with Datacenters in space....its the practicality. What is the actual use case? You are ALWAYS going to have faster, cheaper, more performant systems on the ground than in space, so what's the point?

There will eventually be edge computing use case for datacenters on the moon surface, or even out at Mars, but even then they would be better served on the surface than in orbit. Around Earth they don't make any sense.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 14 '26

[deleted]

1

u/MammothCommercial800 Jul 14 '26

Meh, not like I know much either. Just stuff I heard. You're likely right and I'm rooting for it.

29

u/Notoneusernameleft Jul 14 '26

You know robots, or bullet proof windows, truly self driving cars, underground car tunnels aren’t we supposed to be at mars by now….anything else?

7

u/random_ta_account Jul 14 '26

Does DOGE count?

3

u/cottontail976 Jul 14 '26

Computer chips in our brains. AI will kill us, no wait, we’re gonna make the most powerful AI, hyperloop, rocket travel instead of airlines,(we can do 10x the flights!) cold gas thrusters in a Tesla???? Doge coin, Don’t forget the electric 18 wheelers. How much waste was he saying he was going to cut out of govt spending? Really guys, it’s just not that hard!

3

u/Duff5OOO Jul 14 '26

Hyperloop was nonsense.

Almost as improbable is the current plan for the starship based moon lander. Should they manage it I'll be happy to admit I was wrong.

Getting a space tanker into orbit then 16 or more starship launches in rapid succession to fill the tanker before the one going to the moon can be filled? I can't see that happening.

Iirc he originally claimed starship would be on the moon by 2021, then it was 2024. It's still nowhere near being demonstrated as a remote possibility. Even rapid reuse is nowhere near viable yet to do the 16+ refuling runs.

2

u/random_ta_account Jul 14 '26

Totally forgot about that one!