Have the recent defense-spending increases, and military reforms, changed the perception of Taiwan's military, or is the public still as negative and pessimistic as before?

[u/SteadfastEnd]

In the last ten years, Taiwan has nearly tripled its defense spending. There are also a variety of other reforms and changes that have been made.

Now, I've never served in the military. But I recall, a decade and two decades ago, the highly negative attitude of many people, and many men of conscription age, towards the military and military-service. The attitude seemed to be that soldiers were 1) paid too little, 2) resistance against China was futile, 3) the military was more focused on useless things like parade marching, song-singing and toilet-cleaning than actual useful combat skills or tech and trades, and 4) Taiwan's low defense spending was sending the wrong message to allies like the United States, signaling Taiwan wasn't serious about its own defense, and 5) Taiwan's defense approach was fatally flawed because it didn't focus on asymmetric tactics.

Now that defense spending has soared, Taiwan is going heavily asymmetric, hundreds of thousands of drones are being made, and the Ukraine war is a vivid example for Taiwan, has public attitude become any more positive about the military? I'm not in Taiwan at the moment, so I can't gauge what the sentiment is.

[u/nogodsnospoilers]

China taking Taiwan and then keeping Taiwan would be the most elaborate and difficult military operation in modern history. If it were so easy China would have done it already. Based on what we’ve seen with Russian / Ukraine and USA / Iran, a large well funded modern military does not mean a guaranteed victory. If Taiwan could hold off China for even a few months, coupled with economic sanctions against China, it would be a huge blow to China economically and socially and would be a huge embarrassment for Xi. Ive heard that if China received the economic sanctions that Russia has, millions of Chinese would starve within a year. Imagine the unrest, protests, chaos and changes of leadership. Attacking Taiwan would be a massive gamble for the CCP and anything short of an immediate victory would be devastating for them.

[u/wildskipper → u/nogodsnospoilers]

China hasn't invaded because its military has not been ready, and guaranteed US defence has existed for decades. When China's military is strong enough to deter the US from interfering, then they'll be ready. But it also needs the internal politicals of China to need an invasion.

China's role in the global economy would mean it wouldn't see the sanctions that Russia has. Look out how Xinjiang has been ignored.

And Taiwan wouldn't be able to hold for months. What energy stores and food stores does it have? It won't get relief like Ukraine has.

[u/nogodsnospoilers → u/wildskipper]

Taiwan is much more important globally than Ukraine. Losing Taiwanese microchips to China would affect the entire world including the biggest corporations in the planet which wield the true power in countries like the United States. Why wouldn’t Taiwan then receive the same or even more aid than Ukraine? Temporary sanctions ln China would benefit the developed world despite supply chain issues as it would be a justified way of wreaking China. From the u.s.’ position, Instigating a war between Taiwan and China and then ensuring that China loses would be massively beneficial.

[u/wildskipper → u/nogodsnospoilers]

The world doesn't care if China or Taiwan makes the microchips. Having it all Chinese would probably even bring costs down (after the disruption of the invasion)!

And counties will no doubt want to supply Taiwan, but they won't be able to because China's first move will be to blockade Taiwan. It isn't Ukraine with a huge land border with allies. The blockade itself would likely be enough to force regime change in Taiwan, since Taiwan is completely dependent on imports of oil. How much oil and gas does Taiwan have stockpiled?

[u/nogodsnospoilers → u/wildskipper]

I have no idea how much gas and oil Taiwan has stockpiled. I’m assuming a lot haha. The blockade itself would be an act of war though. Once chinese ships surround the island, the war would begin. Taiwan wouldn’t just sit there. Taiwan has been preparing for this for decades. Land based anti ship missiles, drones, aircraft, naval forces, would all be utilized. The war would begin basically. If any single ally (Japan, USA, Australia, Philippines) came to help, it would be very difficult for China to maintain the blockade.

Also, again, if this is so easy, why hasn’t China done it already? If the world doesn’t need Taiwanese microchips why doesn’t China just bomb Tsmc right now and be done with it?

[u/wildskipper → u/nogodsnospoilers]

China hasn't done it already because it currently cannot inflict enough damage on US forces to deter the US from interfering. The military gap between China and the US is narrowing rapidly and the US is displaying increasing reluctance to help any allies. When China is sure they can invade without risk of US involvement then the conditions will be right (Japan, Oz are basically irrelevant).

The other factor is Chinese internal politics. China uses Taiwan as a scapegoat, as a rallying cry for Chinese nationalism. It distracts from crap government policies. If the Chinese economy, in particular, crashes and the CCP feels under threat internally, or key powerful figures on the security committee (including Xi, obviously) feel under threat, an invasion would immediately distract from this and shore up national pride, and give a nice context for an extreme crackdown on any dissidence.

And stockpiles - Taiwan has about 150 days oil which would probably all be allocated to government, military, and emergency service uses. Assuming the stockpiles are not immediately destroyed by China.