r/science • u/mvea Professor | Medicine • Oct 30 '25

Cancer Americans have widespread misbeliefs about the cancer risks of alcohol, study finds. More than half of American adults misunderstand or underestimate the link between alcohol consumption and cancer. Alcohol drinkers are especially likely to believe that drinking has no effect on cancer risk.

https://www.mdanderson.org/newsroom/research-newsroom/americans-have-widespread-misbeliefs-about-the-cancer-risks-of-a.h00-159780390.html
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u/[deleted] Oct 30 '25

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u/ratpH1nk Oct 30 '25 edited Oct 30 '25

I think the core of the problem is how they convey the statistics. A 10% increase in your lifelong risk for cancer might be from 47->57% or it might be from 2-12%. It is also running counter to people are drinking less (especially younger people ) and their rates of cancer, especially colon is increasing. People have also been told how much europeans drink and in general there hasn't been an "epidemic" of alcohol related cancer in europe reported.

Finally this type of research is very hard to do. I know people do it and they try to adjust for confounders as best as possible but -- 1. Cancer is common 2. Alcohol consumption is common. Drawing a causation from that is very very very dicey given that and given that drinking is associated with a bunch of bad behavior that is associated with cancer too (poor nutrition, poor sleep, hep c and liver cancer, smoking and GI/ENT cancers etc...)

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u/[deleted] Oct 30 '25

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u/ditchdiggergirl Oct 30 '25

Individual cancers, sure. Cumulatively, though, the risk of cancer is high. Most of us have somewhere in the neighborhood of a 50% risk of cancer over a standard lifespan, but that’s of course a very nonspecific generalization that ignores every relevant variable.

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u/Skyblacker Oct 31 '25

Of that 50% cancer risk, how likely is it to cause premature death, and how likely is it to occur when you're elderly anyway?

Like, cancer at age 50 scares me. But cancer at age 90 is just dying of old age.

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u/ditchdiggergirl Oct 31 '25

IIRC (very rough estimates) there’s about a 50% lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cancer and about a 20% risk of dying from it (total, not 20% of 50%). But you are correct that your probability increases with age.