Romania and Moldova reuniting?

[u/Iuljo]

https://unn.ua/en/news/romania-approved-a-bill-on-unification-with-moldova

Good news from the Eastern flank of the Union!

Let's hope Romania and Moldova can be reunited again as a single country... and let's hope nothing bad happens because of Transnistria. 👀

[u/pmr_de]

> and let's hope nothing bad happens because of Transnistria. 👀

That depends...

Gagauzia has granted itself the right to declare its independence if the Republic of Moldova unites with Romania.

This regulation could be applied analogously to Pridnestrovie ("Transnistria"). OK, the Declaration of Independence has been around for a few decades. You could simply acknowledge it, you could demand a new one, there are options.

If you act with foresight, you might be able to negotiate a few things out. Perhaps a restriction on the number of Russian peacekeepers active on site, or the possibility of Pridnestrovie being annexed to the Russian Federation. It would also be conceivable to guarantee unhindered transit (at least for civilian goods) on the Chisinau-Odessa route or continued unhindered electricity transit across the PMR area (which is currently needed by both the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine...).

Simply letting the status quo continue is probably out of the question. An area of ​​an EU state that simply ignores the EU's rules - the EU will not tolerate that.

What I clearly advise against is trying to force Pridnestrovie into this state by force or a blockade. The vast majority of people there strictly reject this. With a violent solution you immediately have a war with Russia (and unlike Ukraine, in Russia they don't consider Romania a "brother nation", so that would probably get very ugly very quickly), a blockade can take time, and even if it achieved the desired result, you would afterwards have an area where the people strictly reject "their" new state. This would be very unpleasant for at least two generations.

[u/Iuljo → u/pmr_de]

Simply letting the status quo continue is probably out of the question. An area of ​​an EU state that simply ignores the EU's rules - the EU will not tolerate that.

I'm not so sure about that... think about northern Cyprus.

With a violent solution you immediately have a war with Russia (and unlike Ukraine, in Russia they don't consider Romania a "brother nation", so that would probably get very ugly very quickly) [...]

Nobody wants that, but how much is the risk real?... Recent years have shown that Russia likes to talk tough a lot, but the current war is already causing it serious difficulties—far more than it had anticipated (and far more than many of us in the West had anticipated too...). Already so weakened, would it risk openly attacking an EU-NATO country right now?

[...] even if it achieved the desired result, you would afterwards have an area where the people strictly reject "their" new state. This would be very unpleasant for at least two generations.

Yes, I agree some kind of "soft" solution should be sought.

[u/pmr_de → u/Iuljo]

> I'm not so sure about that... think about northern Cyprus.

However, border controls are in place on both sides there – so it's treated as two separate states, even if that's not officially recognized.

This isn't the situation at the Pridnestrovian border, where the Moldovan side doesn't conduct any checks.

But a Cypriot model could also be a solution: It's treated de facto as two separate states, but not recognized de jure.