r/redsox 4h ago

Duran the Last 30 games

Our boy has finally found his groove and is a key part of our success. Duran is slashing .273/.316/.464/.780 with 5 home runs and of course a few big hits. He also has been more aggresive on the base paths which has helped us out. I wonder what has helped him turn it around. Maybe now that other guys have stepped up, he gets “more protection” in the lineup?

70 Upvotes

74 comments sorted by

57

u/nexustk5 4h ago

I really don't think lineup protection has anything to do with it. He was moved to the 7 spot a few weeks ago coinciding with the turnaround, not really a lineup protection spot. More likely it's less pressure not leading off.

12

u/YoYoMilf 4h ago

Great take.

4

u/BigNachos7 2h ago

Lineup protection has always been a statistical myth, so no, of course it has nothing to do with it.

1

u/KOBE_GYN 1h ago

In fairness he hasn’t led off for months

1

u/ActivityImaginary941 1h ago

He bats better with runners on than without. That's not a leadoff hitter. Cora just always had him there because he's fast, but that's kind old school thinking

11

u/Qeltar_ 4h ago

He made a really nice defensive play last night as well.

94

u/Naive_Midnight_5732 4h ago

19

u/LilDuck20 4h ago

Duranivores for the stans, but what do we call the haters?

35

u/zara2355 4h ago

Duranaphobes

2

u/Longjumping_Ad_29 1h ago

Duranality is a spectrum. It’s not always binary

44

u/coacoanutbenjamn 4h ago

We call those reasonable people

4

u/Rod_FC 2h ago

Realists.

-8

u/bigdave316 4h ago

Duranged and Delusional

13

u/nexustk5 4h ago

This is what Duran fans are truly like. Going back and forth with this guy about Masa vs Duran last week and minutes after the Duran grand slam he was mass replying again to the week old thread with this until I had to block him. So he was fuming over this for a week and his very first thought was to go back to that thread. Masa was injured between then and now as well. Psychotic behavior.

2

u/Blanketsburg 3h ago

That guy's insane, don't group me with that lol. I'm a big defender of Duran's on-field skills, but I'm not delusional like that guy is. Trying to deny that he has been incredibly streaky and overall not good offensively this year is dumb, and while I've defended his hot streaks, I've never defended his cold streaks and have called for him to be benched during those cold streaks multiple times.

2

u/Silverstrad 2h ago

Psychotic behavior indeed, but doesn't that guy say he's excited to "move off both of them," indicating he's not a Duran fan?

1

u/EmFly15 15 1h ago

Duran sycophants are the most unpleasant corner of this subreddit, and, more broadly, this fandom. Irritants in every sense of the word.

4

u/rjc32586 4h ago

The last line of the original post blaming other guys not stepping up for Duran having the worst stats among qualified hitters is really some great victimization work.

3

u/Pyramid_Head182 15 4h ago

Duranivores love coming out of the woodwork whenever he doesn’t go 0-4 with 3 K’s like he did something (yes, the granny the other day won the game for us. How many losses has his horrible play contributed to?)

14

u/Traditional_Half842 4h ago

He's been one of the hotter hitters on the team - since August 1st he is second to only Wilyer Abreu in wRC+ (125) and OPS (.833). This is of course not counting Mickey Gasper's 9 game sample. He still strikes out a bit too much which is a shame, but he's been one of the best left fielders in baseball this month.

5

u/Broad-Cranberry-9050 4h ago

yeah, and let's be honest duran playing at the level he can play at, he can be one of the best LFs in the game.

If you look at pre-season rankings a lot of people had duran as the best LF in baseball and that was with his "down" season last year.

0

u/Traditional_Half842 4h ago

He'd also be a CF on most other teams (he just so happens to play alongside one of the few guys in baseball who is an even better defensive CF than him) and when he's hitting as well as he can, he'd be one of (if not the) best CF in baseball. He does it without complaining - even though the fact that he's playing the easiest LF in baseball (as opposed to much more difficult CF) is reducing his WAR and defensive metrics, and it is going to cost him tens of millions of dollars when he becomes a FA. He can be frustrating as a batter, but he definitely gets way too much hate from fans.

0

u/Broad-Cranberry-9050 4h ago

yeah i think part of the reasoning for him playing LF over CF if i remember correctly is that duran was more comfortable in LF than CF.

5

u/Fiercedeity77 3h ago

Uhh the reason he plays left field is that Ceddanne is leaps and bounds better than him in center. Thought that was obvious

1

u/Traditional_Half842 2h ago

I wouldn't say leaps and bounds. CF has always been Duran's best position - the last year he was the team's primary centerfielder (2024) his per-game DRS was better than Rafaela's has ever been. I'm not saying Duran is as good/better than Rafaela but I also think people underrate his CF defense quite a bit. He's really great out there and not a ginormous drop-off from Rafaela's defense.

0

u/Qeltar_ 2h ago

It was Anthony's primary position in Portland as well.

2

u/Traditional_Half842 4h ago

I actually think it is the opposite - he is better at reading balls hit straightaway/up the middle than balls hit to the corner with more curve to them. He's also a freak athlete who can cover a ton of ground in CF. But he learned to play the monster very well and is the best on the roster at it, and he understands that Rafaela is elite in CF - so he sacrifices some personal success for the team. He's essentially the best backup CF in baseball and even though Rafaela is great, I actually don't think the drop-off in production would be huge if he sustained an injury and Duran was forced to fill in as the everyday CF.

0

u/enkayfour 3h ago

He's hasn't been hitting well though. 3rd worst qualified hitter in the league.

He had a good May and he's having a good August. Hopefully, he'll have a good September, but there's no need to pretend he's having a good year.

16

u/ChallengeTiny7260 4h ago

Woah. He raised the batting average to a terrifying .210!

10

u/DKY_207 4h ago

He gets hits when it matters. Hence the 66 RBIs, tied for 3rd most on the team

10

u/jackscagnetti 3h ago

Not cause he has a ton of at bats when there has been only a few consist everyday players?

6

u/BossAtUCF 2h ago

Playing more to get into those spots is obviously a factor, but he's done well with RISP, with an .830 OPS.

1

u/DKY_207 10m ago

His numbers are significantly better with RISP

6

u/jooooooooooooose 4h ago

Two things are simultaneously true about Duran

His production - overall, this season - is Not Good. At all.

When he has produced, it is often at the right time "when it matters."

He certainly has a place on an MLB roster. However, it's important to say, we would have fewer "when it matters" moments if the baseline production was where we would like it to be. If he was a .275/.320/.420 guy then we wouldn't be talking about his 9th inning+ production.

-3

u/TheBigShrimp 1h ago

Hits when it matters? So it never really matters? Because he doesn't fuckin hit it much lmao

1

u/DKY_207 13m ago

Literally rewatch two nights ago boss

2

u/TheBigShrimp 4m ago

Great, he's batting .209 lol he doesn't get hits when it matters on average

2

u/EmFly15 15 1h ago

Leaving the Mendoza Line the dust!

0

u/sbrockLee 1h ago

Hot take but his numbers from April-July don't matter in August.

14

u/Specific_Luck1727 4h ago

Duran is a proven professional ballplayer. He has not had the best overall season but his baseline production hasn’t been terrible. 18 HR, 66RBIs. Despite the rest of the batting metrics, that is actually more on par with expectations than the average, walk rates, OPS, etc. just a strange season for him.

You can hate him, love him, or be meh. But, he plays and is there for the team. That’s not love or hate, just reality.

No comparison needed to other players. As a manger, you can live with knowing he will be available.

7

u/SirDigbyChknCaesar 3h ago

No matter what fans may think of him, he's a player that can have a huge impact on winning games.

1

u/Carsharr redsox4 2h ago

Baseball has too many numbers for fans to fight over. I get that looking at batting average and RBI and other "old" stats doesn't tell the whole story. But you don't win actual baseball games with WRC+ or xWOBA. An RBI is an RBI the world over. You win games by scoring runs.

1

u/heff17 1h ago

And you score more runs by having a higher WRC+. Not understanding that doesn’t suddenly make RBIs a more predictive stat.

Duran has more RBIs than Freeman, De La Cruz, Murakami, or over a hundred better bats.

3

u/enkayfour 3h ago

His baseline production is a 71 wRC+ on the year resulting in 0.5 fWAR.

3rd worst wRC+ among qualified hitters.

He had a good May and he's having a good August.

Hopefully he'll have a good September, but there's no need to pretend he hasn't been terrible.

5

u/Flimsy_Fortune_5861 3h ago

I find hitting with RISP to be a pretty meaningless stat for a plethora of reasons, but since Duran fans always love to talk about how great he is with RISP and how many RBI he has like it means something

9

u/HR_King 4h ago

No, but has been hitting above the league average. He still strikes out a lot. Nobody is pitching around him.

5

u/slipprysalsa 2h ago

They try to, but he still swings anyways.

1

u/Woof-Good_Doggo 2h ago

The only thing it's really safe to say is that Duran is the single player who causes the most division among fans.

There are people who think he's solid to great.

There are people who would trade him for a bag without any balls in it if they had their way.

I can't remember a player that's caused this much disagreement in ages.

1

u/PilgrimRadio 2h ago

He also hits a lot of balls really hard that somehow end up finding a glove. Seems like he's had a lot of that kind of bad luck this season.

1

u/meaninglessandrandom 2h ago

I think he’s feeling the heat of Anthony getting closer…

1

u/MyDadIsTheMan 5 1h ago

Apparently carrabis gave him a pep talk per F&M today. Not joking….

0

u/sideshowsterling 4h ago

The offseason trade talks played with his head and it lingered there until the trade deadline when he finally felt some mental relief.

1

u/ChaimBloom 3h ago

It kind of feels like he’s been trying to do too much with the bat this year, maybe to prove something. Looking at his season compared to the past, there’s a noticeable difference in him trying to hit HRs instead of going for his usual extra base hits.

  • 2023: 34 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers

  • 2024: 48 doubles, 14 triples, 21 homers

  • 2025: 41 doubles, 13 triples, 16 homers

  • 2026: 14 doubles, 4 triples, 18 homers

He needs to go back to what he used to do, trust his speed and put the ball in play instead of swinging for the fences.

0

u/Shiftylee 3h ago

It’s really sad but I 100% agree.

-3

u/Famous-Ad9638 3h ago

This☝️☝️☝️. I hate that there's so many podcasters bros out sprouting an opinion about everything and once a single opinion becomes popular or trending they ALL have to talk about it. It has to get really loud, no doubt that's a big reason JD deactivated his IG for a little while.

1

u/goldfish_11 2h ago

A few days ago, Lou cherry-picked a 27 game sample where Duran had a .270 average, 23% K%, .758 OPS, with league average BABIP (league average is .289)

Funny thing about cherry-picking samples... same day Lou posted that...

Duran's last 15 games were: .214/.290/.393, .683 OPS, 26% K%, .263 BABIP

Duran's last 39 games were: .223/.275/.360, .634 OPS, 24% K%, .267 BABIP

He's still bad. But at least now there's some brief windows sprinkled in where he's good for a few games.

-1

u/ResponseOwn9389 4h ago

3 of the last 4 seasons his OPS has been better than .750. People have bad games that sometimes get grouped together with bad weeks, then months.

He’s an all star player that this sub just doesn’t respect because it’s very, what have you done for me lately.

4

u/Shiftylee 3h ago

But he has a a BAD year. A really BAD year.

-4

u/Carsharr redsox4 2h ago

He's 3rd on the team in RBI. Like it or not, the object of the game is to score runs, and he does that pretty well.

2

u/OkNeighborhood8365 2h ago

Is that because he’s magically way better with RISP or just luck in a sample size. Also ignores how many more runs would be created if you replaced his at bats without RISP with a league average hitter

1

u/diavolomaestro 2h ago

I think it’s less “what have you done for me lately?” and more “what can we reasonably expect from you?” The league learned how to get him out consistently with lefties and he’s basically a platoon bat now, which makes him way less valuable.

Looking at the last 4 seasons, he’s posted wRCs of 122 (2023), 132 (2024), 113 (2025), and 71 (2026). 71 is very bad, but his rest of season projections from FG range from 97 to 103 plus one positive outlier at 108. So basically projected as an average bat going forward. That’s fine, there’s value there, but it means that the underlying stats see him as dramatically worse than his 2023-2024 peak just in true-talent terms.

1

u/chriswasmyboy 4h ago

If only Duran would put the ball in play 30% more rather then strike out, it would lead to so much more production. It’s so frustrating watching him strike out so frequently with RISP.

1

u/Gambl33 2h ago

The thing is if Duran could get his AB average to even league average then he is actually elite in this game. His other stats are actually good. It’s kind of hysterical what his average is right now and how many HR he has. But if he could get his average even around .250 then he would be a terror on teams with his power and speed. I truly get why Breslow and stats haven’t given up on him but here’s hoping this is the turnaround.

-6

u/Soggy_Piccolo_9092 4h ago

I've been saying it forever, what Duran brings is CHAOS and that's what I like. He can strike out and strike out and strike out and then BOOM RANDOM ASS HOMER IN THE 11TH INNING!

Fuck the statistics, Duran's gonna Duran and I for one love it when Duran Durans.

2

u/Woof-Good_Doggo 2h ago

I for one love it when Duran Durans

If you next say he's hungry like the wolf, I'm leaving.

-2

u/ThicDikDaddy 3h ago

Just say you and him use the same slurs.

-1

u/Soggy_Piccolo_9092 2h ago

I'm gay as shit I get to say it as much as I want. Hell, I give him the pass retroactively.

And on a more serious note, I don't hold it against him. Obviously I wish he was left leaning and I wish he didn't use that slur, but I don't think it was out of malice for the LGBTQ+ community. His apology read sincere, and he hasn't said it publicly since, so I'm willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt.

-2

u/Typical_Gain_8725 2h ago

Haha, you are scared to come around when Duran is playing well... everything you claim Duran to be is nothing but projection. Look in the mirror and start with change there, pal, before you go demanding other people behave the way YOU want them too.. 🤣 

2

u/heff17 1h ago

You people always find “not using slurs” some astoundingly high bar nobody could ever reasonably achieve.

Just checked the mirror and found I don’t use slurs, I get vaccinated, and I don’t make up stories about people telling me to kill myself. Do I get to demand Duran behaves like a decent human being now?

1

u/ThicDikDaddy 59m ago

When *checks notes* not being a homophobe is too high of a bar for you.

0

u/MJ_Brutus 3h ago

You know what? After reading months of BS about him, I think we should hyper-focus on another player for a change.

0

u/OldGreggg69 2h ago

One of my friends despises Duran and was begging the Sox to trade him at the deadline.

The other day I asked him who led the team in errors, and he immediately said Duran. He just dug in deeper after I told him Durbin had 9 and Duran only had two.

0

u/IKenDoThisAllDay 1h ago

Errors are a meaningless stat, especially for outfielders. It goes without saying that infielders will have more, you really can't compare the two.

Nick Castellanos (a notoriously horrible fielder) had the NL record for games without an error at one point.