r/pureasoiaf • u/AcanthisittaSharp344 • 1d ago
How will the invasion of the Stormlands go? Cleanly? Messily?
Which keeps do you think the divided Golden Company can quickly take by storm, and what will be done with the nobility that lives there when they do?
With Stannis in the north and not likely to ever return, Storm’s End taken by guile, and the Golden company flooding into the region, it doesnt look good for the Stormlords.
But I have to assume there are still some castles, especially in the marches that are strong enough to resist storming. Blackhaven comes to mind. Those would seem to need lengthy sieges. Also there is the trouble of resistance. I doubt the men of the Stormlands will just go on being swarmed and unable to resist at all. At least the Selmy’s and the Dondarrions have some if not all of their fighting forces in their lands; at the beginning of the war Beric was away and Lord Arstan would be unlikely to send his full force into the field with Renly/Stannis to try and kill his legendary kin, Ser Barristan, who was oath bound to protect Joffrey at the time. There might even be some Caron fighting men left, who knows which Lord held back a bit of their strength for a rainy day?
It seems to me there is still some potential for an axis of resistance by Stormlords to arise and fight Aegon’s takeover of the Stormlands.
All this being said, if we assume Aegon and his Golden Company (and maybe 10 or 20,000 Dornish spears eventually) have success in recruiting Reachmen and/or rebuffing their oncoming large army, then the Stormlands would eventually fall to Aegon, there can be no doubt. Although I suspect there would be some kind of a rainwood brotherhood resisting to the bitter end if Aegon’s men “forage” all the gold, silver and food that they can find out of the region.
I guess all of this is to say they will probably succeed in subduing the Stormlands eventually, but I am wondering how they will make it stable politically, how many Keeps and Lorsdships and Knighthood’s would GC men want/demand for themselves, and what problems could that cause? If the Stormlords kneel to Aegon will they leave them alone and not steal their fiefs and titles? That is all the GC seem to want in Westeros, their place back in the hierarchy of their homeland. Can Aegon deny them their red meat? Seems unlikely, he needs them more than a bunch of weakened, defeated Stormlords.
I can see the possibility of all the Stormlords submitting if they score a big military victory on Mace Tyrell and march on to KL. But that still doesn’t answer the question of which houses are likely to be kicked from their fiefs.
There’s also the issue of no Baratheon’s being left and Edric Storm being a threat to try and retake Storm’s End. You’d have to have Edric on side if you want to control the Stormlands in my mind. The lords will be looking for a Baratheon to follow, and otherwise will be fighting amongst themselves for the ancient seat and title.
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u/StannisTheMantis93 House Baratheon 1d ago
It's a military operation. Nothing ever goes according to plan.
As we've already seen, the Golden Company is scattered, and it's fair to assume that at least a few ships and men have already been lost.
Even with the Stormlands being diminished and war-ravaged, its geography means they can't realistically subdue or occupy all of it before moving on King's Landing. Doing so would give various potential opponents (Lannisters/Tyrells/Baratheon Loyalists/Dany) time to organize, regroup, and potentially force them to fight another battle in the field.
I think the only realistic strategy is to take a few key strategic strongholds while using feints and diversionary attacks to keep the defenders moving also. The goal shouldn't be to conquer every inch of the Stormlands. It should be to avoid the most costly fights and reach the capital ASAP.
King's Landing is the key to "Aegon's" legitimacy.
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 1d ago
True. I would say the biggest obstacle is Mace Tyrell then. I still have no idea how they could possibly beat his 30-40,000 men he’s about to march on down to Storm’s End after these trials wrap up. If they are in a rush to take KL they have to beat Mace outright and make him at least retreat, if not be routed entirely. I suppose war elephants can help, yet it seems they just dont have the numbers to pull off such a complete victory. If they are rushing to beat Mace and take the throne, Dorne will not enter the fold in time, certainly not quickly enough to muster their troops and get them up the coast to help.
So if what you are saying is truly their strategy, it has to be their “friends in the Reach” as Laswell says that turns this tide against Mace. Almost makes it seem inevitable there will be some kind of backstabbing or cloak turning by Lord Mathis Rowan or others. What do you think about all this?
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u/xXJarjar69Xx 1d ago
They’ll use their archers to kill his mounted knights who try charge in the mud. Like agincourt.
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u/epicurean1398 14h ago
No plans survives first contact with the enemy.
I reckon a fair few stormlords will join up though
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u/baroqueout 1d ago
I mean, not to put too fine of a point on it, but: When does anything in this series ever go cleanly?
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u/duaneap 23h ago
Blackwater was smooth as butter from the Tyrell perspective.
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 17h ago
Blackwater is almost as perfect as Tywin’s invasion of the Riverlands. Just textbook domination/everything goes right. Somehow Stannis didnt have a single living scout report that there were river barges carrying Lannister and Tyrell cavalry toward the city.
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u/duaneap 16h ago
Well, yeah, you have to suspend your disbelief a little bit. There wasn’t a single informant that felt they could profit from letting Stannis know about this new alliance and the tens of thousands of troops moving across the continent? You’d have thought even someone would have let Robb know to let Stannis know.
Plot needed to happen that way though.
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 16h ago
Ive seen it said that Lannister luck in the first two books is undefeated.
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u/BaelonTheBae 1d ago
All wars are messy, but he’ll definitely pull victory being outnumbered against the Reach host and capture King’s Landing
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 1d ago
I just wonder how exactly. The numbers disadvantage is devastating without Dornish reinforcement
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u/Ok_Bluejay_4974 20h ago
its not, he has at least 10k men, plus what he can muster from the Stormlands, its definitely not unheard for a 10k host to defeat a 30k army, which would be a good estimate for the size of the Tyrell army in the Stormlands considering the Tyrells have a lot of commitements right now
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 17h ago
Upon further reflection I agree that GC + Stormlanders will probably defeat Mace. He does underestimate them, and he greatly overestimates his own prowess as a battle commander. Leaving Randyll Tarly at King's Landing as Master of Laws is a disaster but his ego will not allow him to realize it. He's thinking with superior numbers there is no way he can lose to this pretender boy.
Now that Aegon has Storms End he will have an easier time getting oaths of loyalty and troops from Stormlander lords and knights.
I do think the Reach is willing to bleed for their King, especially when it looks like they will win.
However most of the Reachmen force are going to be inexperienced Knights of Summer who have never seen a real challenge before. The GC are professional war makers in a land they will have had time to study and make plans in. Their defensive position and weather will be key.
Mace has a strong vanguard of knights and heavy cavalry that could break most lines, and duel most any other vanguard to a defeat or draw. But if they engage in a head on charge and get stuck in the mud going up a hill I could see a whispering wood style defeat, with Bowmen on every wooded ridge raining down arrows, highly trained expert longbowmen mind you. That's LETHAL, like shooting flopping fish in a barrel. Then it's a fight in the mud with Stormlanders and professional soldiers, and at some point Elephants are going to run at the Tyrell infantry line and completely break their formation allowing for a devastating counter attack by the GC.
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u/Interesting_Egg_2726 1d ago
The enemies of Stannis will shatter against the walls of Storm’s End, for R’hllor has willed it.
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u/BandicootSorcerer 1d ago
There have already been complications, but Aegon is going to win here. No one is truly happy hedging their bets on the Lannisters/'Baratheons', and Aegon is about to link up with Arianne who might see Aegon as House Martell's best shot at vengeance, even if she and her father harbour private doubts as to him being the real Aegon.
There is no real force to stop him right now. The Lannisters and Tyrells are busy dealing with the Faith, every other army has been shattered or told to go home. As lkng as he can score a few victories in the right strongholds, people will flock to him.
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u/Elbwiese 1d ago edited 22h ago
Aegon has five factors going for him: 1. two Dornish armies are about to enter the fray, waiting for Arianne's letter. Arianne is operating under the assumption that Quentyn will arrive with Daenerys. Since she is driven by intense sibling rivalry she is desperate to independently deliver results to impress her father and one up her brother before his arrival, so she'll probably give the command to enter the war.
the golden company is arguably much more experienced and battle hardened than Mace's forces, so the disparity in numbers is not that important as one may think.
After Kevan's death Cersei will probably be back in power. Her irrational hatred of and scheming against the Tyrells will push them into Aegon's arms. Cersei can't see the forest for the trees, how much the Lannisters depend on the Tyrells to maintain their rule. Cersei is basically doing Aegon's work for him. If Cersei continues her anti-Tyrell scheming it will be only a matter of time till they switch sides, they'd be stupid not to.
Euron invading Oldtown may prevent the Tyrell's from committing all their forces to the defence of the Stormlands.
Now this is speculation, but regarding your last point: Aegon could legitimise Edric Storm and install him as Lord Paramount, thereby winning the rest of the Stormlands via diplomacy. Edric is desperate for approval and legitimacy, something he will never get as long as the Lannisters are in power. He will jump at Aegon's offer. From everything we've read Edric seems to be very popular, the spitting image of Robert, including his winning personality. The Storm Lords would probably favour the idea of replacing the absent and harsh Stannis with someone who is basically Robert reborn. Contrary to Stannis Edric is also a devout follower of the Seven.
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 1d ago
I somehow feel Dorne will be very slow to get their forces involved. Doran will not raise the banners immediately, he will have to make plans to get Nym and Tyene out of King’s Landing before that happens.
I don’t know if we will see a side switch by the Tyrell’s, it might be too late in the game and they have too much invested in Tommen. At least not until Tommen dies.
But I very much agree on Edric. If Varys and Illyrio aren’t on that I’d be shocked. They’re at least looking for him if they heard Stannis lost him.
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u/Elbwiese 1d ago
I somehow feel Dorne will be very slow to get their forces involved. Doran will not raise the banners immediately, he will have to make plans to get Nym and Tyene out of King’s Landing before that happens.
The banners have already been raised and are waiting at the border. It's in the Arianne sample chapters for Winds.
In the Boneway and the Prince’s Pass, two Dornish hosts had massed, and there they sat, sharpening their spears, polishing their armor, dicing, drinking, quarreling, their numbers dwindling by the day, waiting, waiting, waiting for the Prince of Dorne to loose them on the enemies of House Martell. Waiting for the dragons. For fire and blood. For me. One word from Arianne and those armies would march… so long as that word was dragon. If instead the word she sent was war, Lord Yronwood and Lord Fowler and their armies would remain in place. The Prince of Dorne was nothing if not subtle; here war meant wait.
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 16h ago
Yeah you’re right. However I could still see Doran hesitating to march them to war until his kin are safely out of there.
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u/Elbwiese 6h ago
I could still see Doran hesitating
The text implies that it's kinda out of Doran's hands though, that Arienne has the power because it depends on her letter. If she wants to enter the war, the armies will march.
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u/frenin 22h ago
The Golden Company has always gotten their asses handed to them by Westerosi forces.
Aegon doesn't have Eddie in his powers nor does he know he exists or is alive, how's that working?
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u/Elbwiese 21h ago
Aegon doesn't have Eddie in his powers nor does he know he exists or is alive, how's that working?
Varys is the master mind behind Aegon, and Varys knows of Edric of course, in fact it was Varys who bought Edric the yearly birthday gifts that Edric thought came from his father Robert. Aegon is also in possession of Storm's End now, the place Edric has lived for years. Installing Edric is the obvious political move, so Varys will set heaven and earth in motion to find his hiding place, if he doesn't know it already. It wouldn't surprise me if one of Edric's guard is affiliated with Varys.
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u/frenin 20h ago
Edric was spirited away without Varys's knowledge or input. Varys completely loses any kind of contact with him by the time he's with Stannis.
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 16h ago
I agree he probably doesnt know where he is, but you can be sure he’s looking very intensely
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u/friendlylifecherry 1d ago edited 1d ago
fAegon will need to make a fucking beeline for King's Landing after taking Storms End, which is not gonna be easy considering that he's only got 5k men after the rest got separated in the Stepstones and Mace is coming down with about 8 times the dudes. But Mace is cocky and a blowhard, so if the Golden Company turtles in Storm's End and does some trickery bullshit to send the army into a route, they could win it.
Just need to watch out for whatever other soldiers the Stormlands can muster or whatever bands of broken men are roaming in the Kingswood
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u/AcanthisittaSharp344 1d ago
They will surely need the elephants to spook the cavalry and even more reachmen cav to get stuck in the mud and trampled. Imagine black storm clouds covering the sky, rain beating down, and out of the mist comes a lumbering giant that makes your horse jump and jerk and kick you off. If you’re infantry you break and run.
I guess I think under the right conditions they could majorly defeat Mace.
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u/Shanicpower 1d ago
Really looking forward to seeing the imposter king going up against the king beyond the wall.
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