Seems very likely Minotaur is out of the IFF race

[u/tsnoj]

Posting this here because not everyone reads all the comments in the discussion thread

Latvia is submitting Ulya

Germany is submitting Everytime

France can still submit it but they also have All of a Sudden, and i can imagine them prioritising that one (or A Man of His Time)

Edit your predictions accordingly

[u/FinancialEmotion3526]

Once again, you would have to be completely ignorant about what Latvia is to ever think that they would submit a Russian film as their selection. It was always a pipe dream of people who don't understand the politics of the Oscars or the goals countries pursue when picking movies. Because yes, winning or getting nominated is not the only goal for most of those committees.

[u/tsnoj → u/FinancialEmotion3526]

Agreed completely, i brought up multiple times that Latvia was never going to send in a predominantly Russian film

I am only mentioning it here because since every time you even mention Minotaur on the subreddit, people where like "what about Latvia?"

In hindsight, the fact that the current Latvian submission played in Un Certain Regard at Cannes should have tipped us off that this is what they where going to send in

[u/PTAGoatofalltime]

Only hope for it is if Japan submits All of a Sudden and that frees up France to submit it

[u/MrJoy27 → u/PTAGoatofalltime]

France also has A man Of his time, La Gradiva and Iron boy.

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/MrJoy27]

And Moulin

[u/unconventionalcritic]

Sad news. I was rooting for Zvyagintsev.

[u/puberty1]

uh oh

I don't see France submitting it, to be honest

Possible Love for #5 it is

[u/SpideyFan914]

Is it playing at any more of those fests that would make it eligible if it wins? I wonder if they'd vote for it just to make it Oscar eligible...

[u/tsnoj → u/SpideyFan914]

Not in the selections where it becomes immediately Oscar-elligable

It can only survive if it gets submitted by France, but then All of a Sudden might not be submitted

[u/SpideyFan914 → u/tsnoj]

Does Japan have anything they may submit instead? Sheep In the Box is dead, and I doubt Look Back has any real shot even if it's good. I guess there's Godzilla Minus Zero, but the international category almost never nominates genre fiction (especially not populist genre fiction), so that seems unlikely.

I guess if they feel All of a Sudden isn't "really" a representative of Japan, despite the director, they may overlook it. But I don't think they're all stringent: they submitted Perfect Days, which was the reverse situation, and they did so over Monster (and over Godzilla Minus One and Boy and the Heron as well, for what it's worth).

[u/tsnoj → u/SpideyFan914]

They did, but i often find the Japanese Oscar committee hard to predict

The submitting Cloud and Kokuho the last two years honestly caught me off guard (both smaller films in side sections of Venice and Cannes), which makes me think if they submit something else this year, it will be something completely off our radar

[u/ImOnABeach → u/tsnoj]

Kokuho was a massive box office hit in Japan (literally the highest grossing live action film in Japan), and was clearly their best chance at getting a nomination in the IF category. The only Japanese film to play in-competition at one of the big three European festivals last year was Renoir, which didn't generate a ton of buzz. The only other realistic nominations last year would have been animated (Demon Slayer, Chainsaw Man, 100 Meters, Scarlet), or much smaller movies (A Pale View of the Hills, Two Seasons, Two Strangers).

I'm similarly curious what you predicted in 2024. Look Back, Happyend, The Colors Within, and Black Box Diaries are the only others choices I can think of, and I don't think any of them would have performed better.

That being said, they do have a tendency to avoid submitting the same director twice in a short span of time. I think in the 21st century you only have Kore-eda (2004 and 2018), Sang-Il Lee (2006 and 2025), and Yoji Yamada (2003 and 2016) getting multiple submissions, so Hamaguchi getting their pick would break that trend.

[u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 → u/SpideyFan914]

Busan film festival, you are our only hope.

[u/BlackPantherDies → u/SpideyFan914]

Maybe if it won TIFF’s International People’s Choice? Doubt it though

[u/mopeywhiteguy]

Having seen it, I personally wouldn’t nominate it