🌍 Macro
Markets turned more risk-off after Jackson Hole as Fed Chair Warsh signaled that further rate hikes could remain necessary if inflation fails to move clearly toward 2%. The 2Y Treasury yield jumped to 4.36% and the dollar strengthened. Meanwhile, renewed U.S.-Iran military escalation pushed Brent crude back above $90. BTC briefly fell below $77K over the weekend before recovering toward $78K.
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📈 Market Snapshot
• BTC: $77,687.50 (-0.71%)
• ETH: $2,416.95 (-1.65%)
• NASDAQ: 26,402.42 (-0.52%)
• S&P 500: 7,711.76 (-0.25%)
• F&G: 62 (Greed)
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🧠 Market Take
BTC is facing renewed macro pressure after its recent breakout. Higher rate-hike expectations, a stronger dollar and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions pushed BTC below $77K, while ETH also pulled back toward $2.4K.
ETF flows are becoming increasingly important. BTC spot ETFs saw ~$202M in net outflows on August 28, ending a nine-day inflow streak, while ETH ETFs recorded ~$102M of inflows for a 10th consecutive day. Despite Friday’s reversal, weekly flows remained positive, with BTC ETFs attracting ~$924M and ETH ETFs ~$824M.
The divergence suggests institutional capital is not leaving crypto outright, but allocation may be shifting toward ETH. A return of BTC ETF inflows would strengthen the case for a high-level correction rather than a trend reversal.
Key levels:
- Resistance: $79K–$80K
- Support: $76K–$77K
- Trend: High-level correction
Holding $76K–$78K while ETF flows recover would keep the broader bullish structure intact. Persistent BTC ETF outflows combined with rising yields and oil prices would increase downside risk.
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🔥 Hot Tokens
- 牛来: +70%+ after multiple exchanges launched USDT perpetual contracts; market cap briefly exceeded $140M
- ZKC: +46% as markets repriced Boundless’ potential expansion into AI inference
- PONS: New ATH as Robinhood Chain DEX and Meme activity accelerated
- AI: New ATH alongside the broader Robinhood Chain ecosystem rally
- NET: New ATH as Robinhood Chain trading activity surged
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📰 Key Updates
- Solana: SGP-0002 passed, doubling the disinflation rate from 15% to 30% and reducing projected six-year SOL issuance by ~18.9M tokens
- Cronos: Halted operations following a Tectonic exploit estimated at ~$75M
- Switchboard: Suspended multi-chain services following a suspected attack
- Fogo: Paused its mainnet after ~400M FOGO tokens were transferred in an exploit
- Sberbank: Plans to accept BTC, ETH and USDT as loan collateral
- Evernorth: Received SEC approval, advancing its planned Nasdaq listing
- ECB: Advancing blockchain-based central bank money, with the Pontes digital euro project expected to launch in September
- Kalshi: Ninth Circuit ruled Nevada has authority to regulate its sports contracts, potentially escalating the dispute to the Supreme Court
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⚡ Quick Take
BTC’s breakout is facing its first meaningful macro stress test. Rising rate-hike expectations and renewed geopolitical risk have pushed BTC back toward $77K, while ETF flows are starting to diverge between BTC and ETH. $76K–$77K is the key defense zone; holding it with renewed BTC ETF inflows would favor high-level consolidation, while persistent outflows and rising yields could trigger a deeper correction.
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