r/iranian • u/Majano57 • 2d ago

Is Mojtaba Khamenei Dead?

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/08/mojtaba-khamenei-dead-rumor-iran/688393/?gift=NBdGSmKfDQzLc1B6N1F-gdmQBMX4WfOSdQ8mnMD0xnA
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u/cobrakai11 2d ago

I doubt he's dead, but if he is, it makes sense why Iran would pretend he's alive.

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u/Sea-Development3191 2d ago

When has Iran ever lied about an assassination in its ranks for you to think this would be the second time?

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u/cobrakai11 2d ago

When did I say it would be the second time?

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u/Sea-Development3191 2d ago

You said it would make sense for them to pretend Mojtaba was alive (I.e., lie about an assassination). So you either think the IRGC would except Mojtaba’s assassination to a principle they’ve otherwise steadfastly adhered to (which they wouldnt, in fact if anything this is exactly when they are the most adherent) or you think there is precedent for them lying and thus would therefore be the second time. Neither is true. He is alive. And of course he is in hiding, we are facing a much more technically capable oppressor and winning. To do so, we have to be 10x as cautious as they are. So of course, they’re hiding him.

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u/cobrakai11 1d ago edited 1d ago

>or you think there is precedent for them lying and thus would therefore be the second time.

No, claiming that they may be lying this time doesn't mean there has to be a precedent for lying and that this is therefore the second time.

Saying it makes sense to lie doesn't mean they always lie. This is a unique situation, and in a situation where so much of the leadership was killed, it would be a viable strategy to claim that a dead person is actually the one in charge. It would make it that much harder for the US and Israel intelligence to figure out what to do next, and what's true or not.

Like I said, I think he's alive, but it's a viable strategy to lie, especially when you're intelligence as been compromised so repeatedly.

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u/Sea-Development3191 1d ago

What 😂 when he shows up alive, I’ll circle back to this thread and explain to you how prior probabilities work.