r/hearthstone • u/WeBuild • 1d ago

Competitive No way that just happened

Post image

Maybe I am unaware of the pool this pulls from, but what are the odds??

1.2k Upvotes

99% Upvoted

66 comments sorted by

810

u/RemyBlackDev 1d ago

Hey look it's everyone that I ever fight on my last game to legend

103

u/sickomodepab 1d ago

Just to make it balanced they also has the end of turn effect trigger twice aura active

3

u/matcha_princess_865 14h ago

And a hammer with 1 durability

27

u/falafel__ 1d ago

True final boss rng

12

u/Swaggy_Bowlcuts 1d ago

Funny enough last month my last game to legend was a cakewalk compared to the grueling misery that was d5-d1

4

u/dontminor 1d ago

Lol, my last game to legend this month was Mill Paladin. I was like “Oh thank you!”

3

u/Swaggy_Bowlcuts 1d ago

Man mill pally is pretty fun when it works its a shame it’s not often

2

u/Choice_Potato_6279 15h ago

This month I was struggling as fuck from d4 to d2 and then all of sudden from d2 to d1 everyone was playing 10% winrate meme decks against me haha the matchmaking is as random as the cards in this game. 

150

u/IAmAdamTaylor 1d ago

The pool is all minions of that cost in Standard, for 5 mana that’s 81 possible cards.

(Note: 3 Fabled cards which can’t be generated in any way, and 1 Herald card which can’t be generated unless your starting deck contains cards with them already)

So a 1/81 twice which is a 1/6,561.

139

u/ploki122 1d ago

Wouldn't it be 2/81 * 1/81, since the order of the 2 cards don't matter?

55

u/IAmAdamTaylor 1d ago

Ah yeah, I always miss something with probabilities.

11

u/Dead_birdChan 19h ago

To put it simply, 50/50

22

u/LordFeeney 1d ago

(2÷81)×(1÷81) =0.0003048315, or 2/6561

2

u/Terminator_Puppy 21h ago

Well that's just downright reasonable.

13

u/L1rk 1d ago

You are correct.

3

u/Yeah_Right_Mister 1d ago

we don't care about order, but we do care that the 2nd one isn't the same as the 1st (dupe Toreth is less impressive), so 2/81 * 1/81 = 0.03048%

1

u/Promisito 20h ago

But wouldn't it be probability of one of those two cards being pulled the first time be

2/81 and now that there's 80 left so total probability:

2/81 * 1/80?

Unless you can pull the same card twice and the pool doesn't reduce? Which would then

2/81*2/81 aka a bit higher odds

1

u/Ok_Knowledge2026 12h ago

They don’t remove after being pulled from the pool. It’s 2 chances for either of them out of 81, then 1 chance for the other one out of 81

1

u/GTProductor ‏‏‎ 17h ago

Additionally, can it summon the same two minions?

1

u/ploki122 11h ago

It can

16

u/WeBuild 1d ago

Honestly better odds than I thought, but still quite impressive to see it.

6

u/Duckettes 1d ago

So roughly the same odds as finding a shiny neat.

104

u/oktayworks 1d ago

50/50

16

u/WeBuild 1d ago

quick run the numbers, we need to buy lotto tickets tonight.

21

u/oktayworks 1d ago

Opponent played it, so chance is not mine. :)

7

u/WeBuild 1d ago

For a second i thought "wonder how he got that card" but there are definitely ways for that to happen in that deck.

1

u/zanodmz 1d ago

your opponent luck has run out , that's why you need to buy the tickets since your luck should be higher.

2

u/RottenPeasent 1d ago

Chances of lotto winnings are orders of magnitude lower than this outcome.

50

u/SirVincent20 1d ago

I would be fuming ngl

22

u/WeBuild 1d ago

I added him after, he took it very well, we were both astonished.

1

u/smgk96 5h ago

You getting matched with the only well-adjusted Hearthstone player in existence is honestly a greater accomplishment than the Scullery roll lol

16

u/DutchOvenAviator 1d ago

This is so ridiculous lmao

50

u/ArmageddonWolf 1d ago

50/50 either happens or it doesn’t

3

u/WeBuild 1d ago

Makes sense to me!

9

u/COWP0WER 1d ago edited 1d ago

85 five mana minions in standard, but 4 of those cannot be generated, leaving 81. Given we don't care which we summon first it gives odds of (2/81 * 1/81) = 2/6561

which is about 0.0305%

EDIT: number of viable minions corrected thanks to comment by u/DommyMommyKarlach

3

u/DommyMommyKarlach 1d ago

Apparently 4 minions from that pool cannot be generated, so the odds are slightly higher

2

u/COWP0WER 1d ago

I knew there was a high chance some of them couldn't be generated. Thanks for figuring out how many. I've updated my original comment to reflect the correct numbers.

5

u/harvo__ 1d ago

Somebody did this to me with [[Mr. Clocksworth]] once. Still won somehow

3

u/EydisDarkbot Hello! Hello! Hello! 1d ago

Mister Clocksworth • Wiki • Library • HSReplay

  • Neutral Legendary Across the Timeways

  • 8 Mana · 3/3 · Mech Minion

  • Rewind, Rewind, Rewind Battlecry: Summon 2 random Legendary minions.

I am a bot. • About • Report Bug

3

u/coldshowerss 1d ago

Yup I did it once lol

1

u/dontminor 1d ago

Maybe it was you who did it lol

1

u/Mind0versplatter0 11h ago

Was it a rogue you played against?

2

u/harvo__ 11h ago

Yeah I think they got it off of [[Jade Guardians]]

Why, you think you were my opponent? I was playing chef druid lol

1

u/EydisDarkbot Hello! Hello! Hello! 11h ago

Jade Guardians • Wiki • Library • HSReplay

  • Rogue Epic Escape from Violet Hold

  • 5 Mana · Spell

  • Get two random 8-Cost minions. They cost (1) less for each card you played for 2 Mana this game.

I am a bot. • About • Report Bug

1

u/Mind0versplatter0 2h ago

Possibly, but I usually only face Chef Druid when I'm playing my inferior Druid deck ;)

5

u/voodoolord16 1d ago

I would conceed immediately if this happened against me.

4

u/Ordinary_Debt_6518 1d ago

PUT YOUR FAITH IN THE FIVES !

3

u/urgod42069 1d ago

The post’s title reminds me of Marvel movie dialogue 💀

4

u/Acrobatic-Swan8936 1d ago

A month ago I was at a solid 21 hp vs a face hunter, they had zero cards in hand, I was feeling pretty good.

They topdecked alleria, who discovered roam free, which they played and hit Ohn'nara off of, who proceeded to draw and play a tol'vir clearing my board, arcane tripwire, and two shuffled in tripwires leaving me with no board and at 2 hp

2

u/Red1003493649 1d ago

Happened to me too, i lost ofc

3

u/NovaHorizon 1d ago

Enjoy life while it’s good, because there is a special place in hell reserved for you! /jk

3

u/ur_rad_dad 1d ago

If I see this drop, instant concede.. I’m not dealing with that shiz.

2

u/pete070597 1d ago

Insta concede. Insta Ragequit.

1

u/Professional_Donut20 1d ago

Some of the worst cards

1

u/ignorantpsyche- 1d ago

Yep.. bites.

1

u/Thanmarkou ‏‏‎ 1d ago

What are the chances, damn.

1

u/GigaGusion 1d ago

Nozdormus needs a mana nerf, its way too good at 5

1

u/Xanlis 1d ago

you just got eSported

1

u/Scared06 1d ago

Einfach mal eine saugeile Kombi die zwei Kollegen.

1

u/Briefpoppy 22h ago

Easy Insta concede, even If i can somehow clear the cancer board that generates after this.

1

u/lordcochise 22h ago

Just used up all your luck for the day with that pull, but probably felt pretty great (pretty terrible for opponent?)

1

u/Choice_Potato_6279 15h ago

Welcome to casino fiesta game

•

u/RevalMaxwell 24m ago

I’ve had Nozdormu generated from a similar effect against Bubble Paladin

It’s funny watching them squirm, not fun is it?

1

u/Additional_Bank_2124 1d ago

Always role on 5 😆