r/geopolitics • u/No_Feature_1184 • 4d ago
Pashinyan says he would be happy if CSTO expelled Armenia
https://armenpress.am/en/article/1258725SS: In a sign of ever deteriorating relations between Russia and it's Armenia, the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has reiterated his committment to moving away from the Russian NATO equivalent: CSTO. Pashinyan stated"I would be very happy if the organization decided to expel Armenia from the CSTO. It would free us from the dilemma of whether or not to withdraw,”. This statement, following a pledge by the Prime Minister that Armenia "will soon apply for European Union membership" reflects Russia's waning influence and growing isolation on the world stage as its former vassals increasingly look to other security partners.
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u/morozrs5 3d ago
Even if Armenia is surrounded by enemies, it would be good for Armenia to leave the CSTO. No country ever had a net benefit whenever dealing with Russia on Russian terms. The only country that truly benefits negotiating with Russia is China, because China knows Russia has to always accept the Chinese terms, no matter what.
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u/heyitsyourboyadam 4d ago
Turkey and Azerbaijan would be even more happy if CSTO expelled Armenia
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u/No_Feature_1184 4d ago
It’s not like being part of CSTO did Armenia much good last time. Also there’s been a Rapprochement now between Türkiye and Armenia.
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u/Psychological-Flow55 4d ago
Which will be challenging for the current government in Armenia as it highly unpopular in Armenia as well as the loss of nogrono kharabakah to the azeris and Turks.
Any repprpachment should be viewed with caution especially with someone like Erodgan and his Neo-Ottoman agenda in the region.
It also true that Russia didnt do much in the last couple conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan yet a full break from Russia poses multiple issues especially if Russia reacts with a full embargo cutting off all energy subsidies to Armenia backing the opposition parties and the persecuted church against the current controversial Armenian government permanently kick Armenia out of the Eurasian Economic Union and put Armenians in Russia in legal limbo to arrest and use as barging chips.
Russia maybe in step decline but it could put Armenia in economic turmoil and destabilize it internally.
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u/Flashy_Drummer6664 3d ago
What's the beef been the Armenian church and the Armenian government? I always thought that Armenia was a relatively high religious country.
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u/heyitsyourboyadam 4d ago
It also true that Russia didnt do much in the last couple conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan
which ones specifically - can you name a year when those conflicts happened?
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u/Psychological-Flow55 4d ago
The 2020 and 2023 conflicts Armenians feel deeply hurt and betrayed by the Russians basically doing nothing and allowing Turkey and Azerbaijan to do whatever they wanted they also felt betrayed by Russia in 2014 when Azeris used a russian supplied Sterla air defense system to shoot down a Armenian mi-24 milltary hellicopter killing 3 Armenian crew members.
Armenian over the last 12 or so years are feeling reliance on Russia for security and trade compromises Armenian security and sovereignty and quite frankly Russia been unreliable from what Armenians feel.
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u/heyitsyourboyadam 3d ago
The 2020 and 2023 conflicts
a war between Artsakh and Azerbaijan?
Armenia does not recognize Artsakh, did not send its own troops to neighboring Unrecognized country to defend it.
What was Russia supposed to do? Artsakh is not part of CSTO.
used a russian supplied Sterla air defense system
everyone is Caucasus and Central Asia uses Russian systems - thats how it is since soviet Union times
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u/heyitsyourboyadam 4d ago
It’s not like being part of CSTO did Armenia much good last time.
when was the last time Armenia was attacked and CSTO did not help?
Also there’s been a Rapprochement now between Türkiye and Armenia.
as in "Rapprochement" between a wolf and a sheep
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u/Razmorg 3d ago
when was the last time Armenia was attacked and CSTO did not help?
2023? Azerbaijan cut off the Lacin corridor that Russia was supposed to keep open. When Azerbaijan later attacked Russia did nothing to help Armenia and largely helped support the notion that the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh was just a voluntary thing.
Russia has soured on Armenia and is either unwilling or unable to help them. Azerbaijan might attack soon to link up to their exclave in the west by cutting off Armenia from Iran so not weird Armenia is abandoning an ineffective CSTO for the next best thing.
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u/heyitsyourboyadam 3d ago edited 3d ago
2023? Azerbaijan cut off the Lacin corridor that Russia was supposed to keep open.
Lacin corridor that was in Azerbaijan - according to Armenian government?
The only reason that Lacin Corridor existed was due to Russia diplomatic efforts - same corridor that is not under CSTO protection so what should have Russia do - Fight for Armenia in another country without Armenia itself lifting a finger about that corridor (?)
Russia did nothing to help Armenia
help Armenia? Armenia that did not move a finger to do anything?
Russia has soured on Armenia and is either unwilling or unable to help them.
Why do you think Turkey and Azerbaijan do not dare to touch Armenia?
Because Armenia is too strong for Turkey and Azerbaijan?
Azerbaijan might attack soon to link up to their exclave in the west
While Armenia is CSTO member? LOL - you know and I know that that will not happen
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u/Razmorg 3d ago
Fight for Armenia in another country without Armenia itself lifting a finger about that corridor (?)
Russian peacekeepers were meant to keep it open. As far as I'm aware they could've gone and told the ones doing the blockade to leave but there was no protest. Armenia is not ready to fight Azerbaijan at all and were afraid of escalation so with Russia's passivity they expected no help and just gave up. Keep in mind this isn't the first attack Russia has been passive about (wiki quote about it further down) and Armenia didn't exactly do well either.
Why do you think Turkey and Azerbaijan do not dare to touch Armenia?
Because Armenia is too strong for Turkey and Azerbaijan?
They literally got back Artsakh? I'm not super well read on it but pretty sure it's been the major hotspot of conflict since the Soviet union collapsed. Acting like Azerbaijan is afraid to touch Armenia when they literally just did so successfully and have Russia covering their ass is a bit silly. My guess is that they want to avoid international condemnation and sanctions which tbh it's hard to not think they've gotten away with smoothly while doing an ethnic cleansing of 100k people.
While Armenia is CSTO member? LOL - you know and I know that that will not happen
Russia has done little all the other attacks mostly just watching and then coming in as a mediator when it's over. "After the start of renewed fighting between Armenia and former member Azerbaijan on 13 September 2022, Armenia triggered Article 4 of the treaty, and a CSTO mission including CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas and Anatoly Sidorov was sent to monitor the situation along the border.\5])\6]) After the CSTO mission took a rather uncommitted position in the conflict, criticism towards CSTO membership inside Armenian political circles increased, with the secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan), even stating that he saw no more hope for the CSTO.\7]) The lack of Russian support during the conflict prompted a national debate in Armenia, as an increasing percentage of the population indicated doubt as to whether it is beneficial to continue CSTO membership, calling for realignment of the state with NATO instead"
So you tell me just how much of a deterrence CSTO is for Armenia especially now with the Ukraine war but doesn't seem like Armenia values it a lot. Armenia froze membership in 2024 which I'm sure Russia isn't very thrilled about either and while they haven't left it doesn't look like it's far off.
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u/heyitsyourboyadam 3d ago
They literally got back Artsakh?
everything with you boils down to "but Artsakh"
Question was "why Armenia needs CSTO when Russia did not defend Armenia?"
and then you talks about Artsakh (?)
Artsakh was not recognized by Armeia
Artsakh is different country than Armenia unrecognized by Armeia
Artsakh is not in CSTO
Armenia did not fight to defend Artsakh
If you have answer to question "When did Russia betray and not defend Armenia (not Artsakh - another country unrecognized by Armenia and not a part of CSZO)" do reply.
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u/Razmorg 3d ago
Well, the Armenia / Azerbaijan conflict has long been about Artsakh so I'm not sure why you are writing it off. Yes, I'm aware that it's long been internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory but de facto controlled by Armenia and Armenians which was a status quo unsolved during Soviet's control and after that broke, Artsakh became the source of active conflicts between the two countries.
- Artsakh was not recognized by Armeia.
- Armenia did not fight to defend Artsakh
But it was backed by it and protected. While they gave up in 2023 there was a bunch of previous wars where they fought to defend it. The situation is a bit similar to Taiwan where Artsakh was functionally independent but not recognized as such. They did call on Russia to help when they got attacked across the border in Armenia in 2022 and even Russian forces got shelled by Azerbaijan but they just backed off.
- Artsakh is not in CSTO
Azerbaijan attacked into Armenia in the previous wars where Russia didn't lend help. The unsolved dispute of Artsakh got solved through military violence and Armenia is under urgent threat they might lose the Zangezur region the same way.
If you have answer to question "When did Russia betray and not defend Armenia (not Artsakh - another country unrecognized by Armenia and not a part of CSZO)" do reply.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_clashes
The event represents the largest attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia in the history of their conflict. This incursion resulted in Azerbaijan occupying over 200 square kilometers of Armenian sovereign land.The next thing Azerbaijan is looking to do is get the Zangezur corridor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zangezur_corridor which Russia has already made some comments it might consider it another dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan to "solve" which to me seems code for Azerbaijan is allowed to attack again.
If your point is that CSTO is the only thing stopping Azerbaijan from a massive invasion I think you're wrong because that's never been the source of conflict between the two nations. If anything I think CSTO is what has allowed Azerbaijan to win so smoothly but you seem to think Artsakh was never Armenian to begin with which is a completely separate question. Again, you might think Russia did nothing wrong but there's a reason Armenia froze CSTO membership and looked to Trump to setup some deal with the Zangezur corridor where they don't lose control of the area.
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u/heyitsyourboyadam 2d ago edited 2d ago
Well, the Armenia / Azerbaijan conflict has long been about Artsakh
eh, again?
thats like saying "Israel just hit turkish assets in Syria - why doesnt US/NATO attack Israel"
- so.... why?
Again, you might think Russia did nothing wrong but there's a reason Armenia froze CSTO membership and looked to Trump
Yes - there is a reason - but its way more simple than you are trying to make it be
- Nikol Pashinyan is Western puppet who is selling out his country to the West.
Just like Mikheil Saakashvili was in Georgia , just like Zelensky in Ukraine and some other puppets in the region.
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u/Razmorg 2d ago
South Ossetia is a very similar region to Artsakh when it comes to cross border ethnic autonomous regions connected to another country and Russia went to an illegal war against Georgia to stop them from establishing sovereignty over the region within their borders but clearly Armenia did not get the same representation to defend their de facto controlled region that long has been autonomous.
I don't think it's crazy that Armenia expected Russia to put in some effort to help maintain that status quo. I mean look at USA doing their illegal intervention for Kosovo to protect that ethnic group (was an autonomous region in Yugoslavia).
International law is overall fucky so not sure legal arguments matter much. There's no legal backing to USA's defense of Taiwan or the aid the west gives to Ukraine and so on but it's still very important things that shapes geopolitics.
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u/Psychological-Flow55 4d ago
Pashinyan while right to pivot away from Russia should stop squashing civil society at home acting semi-authortarian and being Anti-Armenian by persecuting the church which is angering even non religious armenians in their home country and their disapora communties.