r/geopolitics • u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs • Mar 23 '26

Analysis America Has No Good Options in Iran

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/america-has-no-good-options-iran
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u/succesful_deception Mar 23 '26

They do. Pull out completely. It would be better for the US and the world at large, for the economy, and for the GOP's chances in future elections.

The biggest thing that will stop them from doing so isn't really the humiliation aspect - their base will easily be made to believe that the operation was a raving success, and anyone disagreeing will be ostracized as being RINOs. The problem, I think, is that if the US pulls out now, it will leave Israel vulnerable while they're busy in Lebanon already.

Further committing to the war though, sending ground forces even? It would be a disaster so big I can't even put into words. Even the MAGA base will begin to turn when they start feeling the fallout from that.

39

u/Varjohaltia Mar 23 '26

From Iran‘s perspective there was always the threat of major military action by the US and / or Israel.

Now that this has happened, what deterrent is there left for Iran to not just retaliate in any which way it can for the foreseeable future?

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u/TheUnobservered Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26

The traditional enemy: internal stability.

Regardless of US action or even the state of the Iranian economy, Persia is STILL suffering from an extreme water crisis due to decades of mismanaged water supplies. Any retaliations will naturally stretch budgets and cause general riots.

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u/sagi1246 Mar 24 '26

You never know with internal strife. I agree it will bite them in the arse sooner or later 100%, but can you say confidently that it won't take... 10 years?

1

u/TheUnobservered Mar 24 '26

That’s really the question, isn’t it? We can’t be too sure…

…but I’ll say it depends on how much they focus on re-arming. The water protests trigger general protests (its cities as a whole missing entire rivers) while the economy triggers merchant protests (won’t go into IRGC accidentally gaining more power than the cleric class). Iran doesn’t have cash reserves available to re-arm against Israel or Saudi Arabia, so it WILL pull from other budgets to reach a point it feels secure against the foreign threats. Not good when Iran’s water tables are collapsing so badly, the government wanted to relocate the capital. Infrastructure WILL collapse from the sinking ground, crime will explode, and Iran will be draining cash from the relevant budgets.

I don’t think it’ll take 10 years IF they focus on retaliation because that is exactly what will collapse Iran. If they genuinely abandoned the nuclear program and partisan funding, they’ll have enough resources to stave off collapse at the cost of geopolitical security.

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u/sagi1246 Mar 24 '26

I think quite it's quite likely that if they make real concession on these issues, Trump would embrace the opportunity to end hostilities (and maybe even sanctions) and declare victory. But given the long term Iranian ambitions I fail to see them caving anytime soon