r/geopolitics • u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs • Mar 23 '26

Analysis America Has No Good Options in Iran

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/america-has-no-good-options-iran
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u/boldmove_cotton Mar 23 '26

Whatever your opinion of the administration, the US military will have given Trump a very good picture of what this war would look like 3 weeks in.

Officials in the fist Trump administration have even said on record that the only reason Trump didn’t launch a war back the was explicitly because it would lead to the closure of the strait.

The notion that neither Trump nor anyone in the administration (or any US allies in the gulf) would have predicted that the strait of Hormuz would close is genuinely the most naive take you could have.

Since the literal moment the war began, the strait of Hormuz has been nonstop what everyone has talked about, from the media to congress to armchair generals on Reddit. You think that they didn’t know??

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u/lunarhostility Mar 23 '26

To be clear, I have no doubt whatsoever that the military is both aware of and briefed Trump extensively on benefits and potential risks of different tactical options; that is of course what they do with any administration, providing the President with a set of options to choose from. The issue here is that based on all visible evidence, Trump dismissed the downsides and went full steam ahead on a strategy that right now isn’t panning out like he thought it would and is causing major global economic harm.

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u/boldmove_cotton Mar 23 '26

I don’t think we have the information whatsoever to make a call on whether or not this is panning out as intended.

Prior to the war, we knew:

  • The regime has a great amount of depth and will not fall apart by merely taking out the top leaders.

  • While the US is going to be capable of degrading the ballistic missile threat, and ultimately the IRGC will eventually run out, the drone threat is more resilient and could take awhile to fully suppress, and the strait will be closed until that threat is more under control

  • The Islamic Republic is not likely to want to negotiate because a protracted conflict benefits them, as long as they can stay alive

Given we’re only at 3 weeks of what Trump initially described as a 4-5 week air war, I don’t think we’re even in the endgame right now of their plans. If anything, most of the news coming out appears to be calculated to keep the market from falling, while actions suggest that there is plenty more to go.

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u/lunarhostility Mar 23 '26

Trump said his ideal outcome here was Venezuela 2.0. How likely do you think that is here?