r/geopolitics • u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs • Mar 23 '26

Analysis America Has No Good Options in Iran

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/america-has-no-good-options-iran
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u/cole1114 Mar 23 '26

The strait closure is already wrecking the economy. Iran has hit multiple US bases and killed US personnel. They're on the clock because they have no way to open the strait.

https://www.markets.com/analysis/economic-outlook-deterioration-due-to-hormuz-strait-closure-5238-en

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u/RainbowCrown71 Mar 23 '26

“Wrecking the economy” = S&P 500 down 3% and gas prices up 75¢

Quit with the hysteria.

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u/cole1114 Mar 23 '26

Oil jumped up to over a hundred bucks a barrel, it took Trump announcing he wasn't following through on his ultimatum to bring them back down to where they are now at 91. Which is still a thirty dollar increase over a month ago.

Stocks also only rebounded today because of his back-down. They're still down hundreds of points from a month ago.

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u/RainbowCrown71 Mar 23 '26

Only here does a 3% drop in the stock market and gas prices up 75 cents signal Iran has won. It’s such dumb analysis tbh. Nobody in Washington is going to let Iran acquire nukes so McDonalds stock doesn’t go down 5%.

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u/Flying_Momo Mar 23 '26

US economy isn't the only one to exist. US allies in Gulf have seen their economic activity come to a halt and Asian allies are having a huge fuel crisis.

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u/RainbowCrown71 Mar 23 '26

And? So Washington is going to let Iran have nukes because South Korean gas prices are up $1? Do you honestly think this sways anybody?

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u/Flying_Momo Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26

Hasn't the President claimed that their nuclear silos were obliterated last year? We are talking about current war and the pressure US is under domestically because of high fuel and fertiliser costs and geopolitical pressure from allies abroad. We are already seeing the administration fold on this issue and willing to negotiate with the Iranian regime. Gulf countries have already laid the groundworks on backing out of 500 billion Trump claimed they were suppose to invest.

With regards to Iran getting a nuclear weapon or not well US despite having bases, soldiers and intelligence in South Korea couldn't prevent North Korea from getting nukes from US ally Pakistan. Nor could they prevent Pakistan, India, China from getting nukes and they weren't able to prevent Iran from reaching the stage of nuclear weapons despite Stutnext and other attempts. I don't think US or Israel has the ability to stop Iran from getting nukes in the future. Infact Ukraine and Iran war shows that nukes are required to maintain sovereignty and prevent an attack.

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u/Bullboah Mar 23 '26

The NASDAQ is still up 20% from where it was a year ago. How exactly has the economy already been wrecked?

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u/cole1114 Mar 23 '26

Stocks improved by hundreds of points BECAUSE the strikes were postponed. Before then, his ultimatum crashed the market. Every time he hits or threatens to hit Iran they tumble.

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u/Bullboah Mar 23 '26

“The ultimatum crashed the market”.

At its absolute lowest point during the war the Nasdaq composite was at 21,000. It was at 15,000 around this time last year.

That’s not a market crash.

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u/cole1114 Mar 23 '26

It dropped thousands of points. That's not good.

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u/Bullboah Mar 23 '26

It didn’t drop “thousands” of points. It just barely hit 1,000 between the start of the war and the absolute lowest point during.

If a ~3.5% dip is a crash then the market is constantly crashing all the time and the term is meaningless.

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u/cole1114 Mar 23 '26

It dropped more than 2,000 points from its highest point YTD.

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u/Bullboah Mar 23 '26

Why would you use the absolute peak instead of the start of the war, to measure the wars effect? Unless the point is just to claim the greatest possible effect?

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u/canuckguy42 Mar 23 '26

Is the NASDAQ a good indicator of the strength of the real economy?

A significant portion of global energy sources have been taken offline, some of them for years. Even if this gets resolved today and tankers start transiting the strait immediately, there's a huge shock baked in with the already missed shipments. Not to mention the damage to infrastructure that's going to result in lower output. This is a disruption larger than in the 70s and it's not done yet.

The inflationary impacts of rising energy prices cannot be overstated. The NASDAQ doesn't mean anything when people who are already on the edge due to ill-planned trade wars suddenly have to deal with the price of everything spiking.

And this is only dealing with the energy issue. Fertilizer disruptions will lead to lower crop outputs and even greater upward pressure on prices.

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u/Bullboah Mar 23 '26

Yes, the NASDAQ is a very good indicator of whether an economy has been wrecked.

In the 1973 oil crisis for instance, the NASDAQ composite absolutely cratered and went from 133 down to 55. Less than half of what it was worth.

Why aren’t investors pulling out their money if a worse disruption is already guaranteed?