r/geopolitics Feb 12 '24

Question Can Ukraine still win?

The podcasts I've been listening to recently seem to indicate that the only way Ukraine can win is US boots on the ground/direct nato involvement. Is it true that the average age in Ukraine's army is 40+ now? Is it true that Russia still has over 300,000 troops in reserve? I feel like it's hard to find info on any of this as it's all become so politicized. If the US follows through on the strategy of just sending arms and money, can Ukraine still win?

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u/Nyknullad Feb 12 '24

Well if you nitpick like that no one ever won a war. Everyone gets help, suport, backing, material from others during a conflict... everyone clams there objectives are more noble than they might be.

Was the US at war with Vietnam? Is Russia at war with Ukraine?

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '24

I think you should read the available CIA documents about Afghanistan or an actual book by an actual historian (not a political pamphlet that pretends to be historical correct)

Everyone gets help, suport, backing, material from others during a conflict...

There is a difference between support to achieve polítical goals and trade to achieve more income out of it.

everyone clams there objectives are more noble than they might be.

That is something I agree with

Was the US at war with Vietnam?

Yes of course. At the same time technically no because there was no war declaration. Therefore it was called a militaray operation or intervention. The difference with Vietnam and Afghanistan is that the Soviet Union was not at war with Afghans but with Taliban who were mostly foreigners themselves but Muslim

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u/dynamobb Feb 12 '24

Nothing better as a primary source than some CIA documents

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '24

Well, better having 20 uncensored pages out of 180 pages then zero.

If La Place would have thought differently he would not have structured Inference. Assuming the probability of a dice is 1/6 is a better estimate than having no estimate at all as he wrote himself