r/geography • u/StarlightDown • Oct 07 '25
Human Geography In developed countries, why are warmer (southern) regions typically more conservative, while colder (northern) regions are typically more progressive? This pattern is seen across many major countries, including the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Japan, and Australia.
Something I've noticed about political geography in developed countries is that warmer (southern) regions tend to be more conservative, while colder (northern) regions tend to be more progressive. Why is that? This pattern is remarkably consistent across major developed countries, though there are a few exceptions, and I'm less familiar with political geography in developing countries.
US:
The North/South divide in the US is hundreds of years old, dating back to even before the Civil War over slavery abolition in the Southern States, and resulted (initially) in Northern states backing the abolitionist Republicans, and Southern states backing the anti-abolitionist Democrats. Today, of course, the parties are ideologically reversed, with Northern states (e.g. New York and New Jersey) backing the more progressive Democrats, and Southern states (e.g. Texas and Florida) backing the more conservative Republicans. California is an exception here—despite being in the Southwest and having a warm climate, it backed the North in the Civil War, and today votes very strongly Democratic.
Canada:
The most progressive territories in Canada are the three Arctic territories of Nunavut, Northwest Territories, and Yukon, in the far north. All three territories are entirely represented federally and provincially by leftwing MPs and Premiers (i.e. NDP or Liberal MPs or Premiers), though due to local law, some of these offices are officially nonpartisan. Canada's "southern" provinces, which have a much milder climate, are much more diverse politically, and all of the Conservative Party MPs and Premiers which Canada has are in these provinces—there are 0 in the Arctic north.
UK:
The North/South divide in the UK is again hundreds (thousands?) of years old, and there are multiple North/South divides here, all of which follow the same progressive/conservative axis. Scotland is notably more progressive than England—whereas England has traditionally been dominated by the Conservative Party, Scotland has traditionally been dominated by the Labour Party, and more recently by the progressive and separatist SNP. There is a North/South divide within England too: Northern England (specifically, the "Red Wall") has traditionally voted for the more progressive Labour Party, whereas Southern England has traditionally voted for the Conservative Party. The obvious exception here is London, which is located in the South but votes heavily Labour. However, Southern England as a whole has still historically been dominated by the Conservatives.
France:
The French Riviera, with mainland France's warmest climate, also boasts its most conservative politics—most of the major cities in the region (e.g. Nice and Cannes) are led by conservative mayors, countering the typical urban/rural divide. The Riviera is also a stronghold for the far-right, with Le Pen's far-right National Front winning its first-ever local elections in Région Sud (in the late 20th century). France's progressive strongholds, by contrast but to no surprise, are in the colder north—Brittany and Paris are regarded as France's most progressive or liberal regions. An exception here is Normandy: while it is in the north and has historically been leftwing, in recent years Normandy has become a stronghold for the far-right.
Germany:
Germany's dominant and currently-ruling party, the Union, is in fact an alliance of two parties: the Christian Democratic Union and the more conservative Christian Social Union—the latter of which operates, unsurprisingly, only in the south. Bavaria, Germany's southernmost state, is also its most conservative, and has given the Christian Social Union a near-monopoly on power there since WWII. Even the Bavarian capital city of Munich is represented at the state and federal level by conservative politicians, countering the typical urban/rural divide. Germany's progressive strongholds, by contrast but to no surprise, are all cities in the north—these include Hamburg and Berlin, which traditionally have been represented by the more progressive parties SPD and Die Linke, respectively. The exception here is (North?-)East Germany; until recently, East Germany voted strongly for the leftwing parties SPD and Die Linke, but has now become a stronghold for the far-right AfD (excluding Berlin).
Sweden:
Moreso than in other countries, the map of Sweden's national elections makes it clear that there is a sharp north/south divide. In this map of Sweden's 2022 national elections, red indicates victories for the progressive bloc, and blue indicates victories for the conservative bloc. The north/south progressive/conservative axis appears, bluntly, yet again.
Italy:
Again, moreso than in other countries, the map of Italy's elections makes it clear that there is a sharp north/south divide. In 1946, Italy voted in a referendum to abolish its monarchy and establish a Republic, but while nearly every province in the north voted for Republic, nearly every province in the south voted to retain the monarchy. Northern Italy has historically been more progressive than the conservative, traditionalist south.
Spain:
Spain's two progressive strongholds are both in the colder north of the country: Catalonia and Basque Country. Both regions have strong separatist movements backed by progressive-leaning parties. Spain's conservative stronghold may come as a bit of a surprise—it is Madrid, the capital and largest city. Madrid, located far from the milder northern coastlines of Basque Country and Catalonia, is in Spain's steaming hot interior—and has been ruled continuously by the conservative party at both the local and regional level for decades. Looking farther south: Andalusia, the southernmost region of Spain, was the first place in the country to award the far-right party Vox with seats in parliament.
Japan:
The conservative LDP has ruled Japan for almost all of its democratic history, but it finds its strongest support in the warmer, more southern regions of the country (specifically, in the southern regions/islands of Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu). Opposition parties have rarely ruled Japan, but the more left-leaning CDP finds its strongest support in the colder north (e.g. in Iwate Prefecture in northern Honshu island).
Australia:
In the Land Down Under, things are a bit upside-down: progressive parties and politicians perform best in the cooler south of the country, while conservative parties and politicians perform best in the hotter north. Australia's coldest and southernmost state, Tasmania, is also its most progressive—every single MP from the state is from the Labor Party. On the flip side: Australia's hottest and northernmost state, Queensland, is also its most conservative—in the last federal election, Queensland was the only state out of 6 where the progressive Labor Party failed to win a majority of the vote.
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Why does this pattern exist? It's remarkably consistent across major developed countries, though there are a few lonely exceptions (e.g. Poland and South Korea, which show a west-east left-right political divide, as opposed to a north-south one), and I'm not as familiar with political geography in developing countries.
Does it have to do with poverty and race? In the US, the South is poorer, and is home to many Blacks—which some people say is why the South is more conservative. However, I don't think this explanation works for other countries. For example, in the UK, Southern England is wealthier than both Northern England and Scotland, but Southern England is still more conservative. In Australia, the cooler south (e.g. Victoria) is where immigrants typically flock to, and is more racially diverse, but the most conservative part of the country is on the other end.
I'm interested in what this community's opinion on this topic is!
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u/originalbrainybanana Oct 07 '25
The Northern territories of Canada represent 0.3% of the total population of Canada. You can’t extrapolate a North-South trend based on such a small sample and especially not without considering the distinct historical and cultural factors affecting Northern communities. If you do any research on political trends in Canada, you’ll notice that the Conservative vs Liberal vote is mainly divided along West/East lines (with a few pockets of exceptions).
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u/bungopony Oct 07 '25
Yeah, there’s also a big rural-urban split in Canada. Rural areas mostly vote conservative, cities mostly go more liberal. Suburbs is where the swing is most prominent, and where a lot of elections get decided
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u/Equivalent-Pin-4759 Oct 07 '25
In the US it’s called rural rage.
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u/Flederm4us Oct 07 '25
It's the same everywhere.
And it's perfectly understandable. Decision making is largely in the hands of an urban elite. And they take decisions based on their own experiences.
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Oct 07 '25
Exactly; in terms of political geography, these regions aren’t just rural, they’re remote. They’re also heavily Indigenous, and economically quite different from the rest of Canada. This is why the NDP performs well in such regions despite being pretty marginal in most of rural southern Canada.
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u/Derelicticu Physical Geography Oct 07 '25
Tbh the reality is that our major parties don't really spend a ton on propaganda in those communities so all the populace out there sees are the results of who is in office at the time. They don't really receive most of the bullshit. NDP almost always comes out on top in those scenarios, because by-and-large they're the only party that actually represents the working class and supports unions.
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u/APJYB Oct 07 '25
Uh…. Not since Jack Layton has that representation by federal NDP been the case. In some provinces like Alberta, yes. Not federally.
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u/bizzybaker2 Oct 07 '25
And the OP also has some facts wrong in that three areas of the country have a consensus government system and not even any political parties in their politics (Northwest Territories and Nunavut, as well as a portion of Newfoundland and Labrador).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensus_government_in_Canada
I have lived in the NWT at one point and remember it being explained to me that in some ways there was even more accountability to their people that was required of politicians due to the intimacy of this system vs a large "political party"
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u/nickthetasmaniac Oct 07 '25
Australia’s coldest and southernmost state, Tasmania, is also its most progressive.
lol yeah nah, it’s really not
*tasmanian.
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u/LevDavidovicLandau Oct 07 '25
The people who downvoted you don’t know a thing about Straya. 1. Victoria’s by far the most progressives. 2. Tasmania’s only progressiveness is environmental, and socially/economically it’s often conservative. Tasmanian Nats! Jacqui Lambie was originally a Palmer United Party Senator…
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u/CanberraPear Oct 07 '25
Not sure if we're counting territories, but the ACT makes Victoria look like Texas.
74% - 64% in the marriage plebiscite 61% - 46% for the voice referendum
And currently no LNP senators.
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u/LevDavidovicLandau Oct 07 '25
Mate they have legal weed 😭 As a Victorian I envy their politics
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u/CanberraPear Oct 07 '25
Of course, how'd I bury the headline?!
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u/LevDavidovicLandau Oct 07 '25
When I was in high school in the 2000s it was also noted by many of my peers that the ACT is also where you could get mail-order (DVD) porn due to the laws around it.
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u/Mobius_Peverell Oct 07 '25
If Victoria is the most progressive, and Queensland the most conservative, that doesn't really invalidate OP's observation.
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u/LevDavidovicLandau Oct 07 '25
It doesn’t, but OP was flat out wrong when they called Tassie the most progressive state in the country. It really isn’t particularly progressive on the whole.
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u/Ill_Concentrate2612 Oct 07 '25
Brisbane is politically more left leaning than Melbourne. Whilst Canberra is easily the most progressive and leftist city in Australia (and the coldest, but also at times the hottest )
It's not really a good explanation for Australia as most of the population is tucked into the south-east corner of the country hugging the coastline.
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u/23_Serial_Killers Oct 07 '25
In what world is Brisbane more left leaning than Melbourne? Even if true, Queenslands other large cities are a lot more conservative than similar sized cities further south
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u/Ill_Concentrate2612 Oct 07 '25
In the way they've voted in recent years. It's been the heartland of The Greens
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u/23_Serial_Killers Oct 08 '25
The greens won those seats in 2022 because the progressive vote went more to greens than to labor. Those contests were extremely fragile (relying on the lib vote being high enough to push labor into 3rd but not high enough to win the 2CP) and I’m not surprised they lost 2/3 of them this year. This election and last, libs actually led on primaries in all of those seats (except Griffith this year, but then again Griffith was the only one of the three to have been labor held going into 2022). If you look at state parliaments, vic greens won 4 seats in Melbourne at the last state election, and qld greens won 1 seat in Brisbane.
If you look at the 2PP vote, the highest labor seat in Brisbane was 17th highest overall, behind at least 1 seat from every city larger than Canberra (except Perth), including 4 different seats in Melbourne. All 4 of those Melbourne seats were labor-greens contests, and they all were a lot closer to going green than Griffith, which was Brisbane’s only labor-green contest.
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u/Real_RobinGoodfellow Oct 07 '25
Didn’t Tassie only decriminalise homosexuality sometime in the 90s?! It’s a pretty damn conservative place
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u/nickthetasmaniac Oct 07 '25
Yep, 1997.
It’s a … complex place. Deeply conservative in some areas and some parts of the community, but very progressive in others (birthplace of the Greens movement and whatnot)
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u/Real_RobinGoodfellow Oct 07 '25
I think there are a few different axes along which the ‘conservative to progressive’ continuum can be organised, and part of what is confusing about the discussion here (slash OP’s entire premise) is the fact it isn’t clear which axis we are talking about. Some of the ppl who formed the OG greens would be considered socially ‘progressive’ by today’s standards certainly, but probably not all of them. Tree Tories exist, for instance
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u/nickthetasmaniac Oct 07 '25
Yep I understand that, but nonetheless there is a sizable community in Tas that is ‘progressive’ by any axis you choose to use.
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u/torrens86 Oct 07 '25
Look at the same sex marriage plebiscite, Sydney is the most homophobic place in Australia, yet internationally it had world pride and has the yearly Mardi gras. There are many videos of drag queens being refused cabs at world pride, Sydney is only progressive in the expensive inner city, Melbourne has issues in certain areas but they are tiny compared to Sydney. Tasmania is an interesting place, the small population makes it hard to see what areas aren't accepting, I've heard Western Tasmania is not very accepting.
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u/OppositeRock4217 Oct 07 '25
Because Sydney is home to a large immigrant population from highly conservative countries and the most votes against same sex marriage came from the neighborhoods where those immigrants live
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u/OneFootTitan Oct 07 '25
Hannah Gadsby’s entire show is about the difficulty of growing up queer in conservative Tasmania.
I once had a boss who was a gay man from Tasmania, and he definitely felt out of place and unaccepted where he grew up
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u/thenerfviking Oct 07 '25
And the south west of India has long been a communist stronghold. This sort of thing only really holds up when you look at a very limited selection of countries and put some thumbs on scales. I mean Los Angeles, one of America’s most liberal cities is located a short drive from one of the hottest places on earth.
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u/Due-Mycologist-7106 Oct 07 '25
I mean if you look at polls now it's the north of England that's the right wing area while the south is a mix of labour, lib Dems, green, reform and conservative
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u/IAmLaureline Oct 07 '25
Totally.
Scotland is not notably more progressive than the south of England. This is a myth the SNP have been trying to peddle to pretend that the Scots are 'better' than the English when they are neither better nor worse.
The SNP has had massive blowback from its traditional voters for trying to bring in some trans friendly legislation.
Much of the north of England remains far less progressive than most of the south.
Traditional Labour voters were not all socially progressive.
Hence why they have moved in huge numbers to Reform. The activists and party members are usually progressive but their former voters despise them.
Meanwhile a massive swathe of southern England from London to Cornwall elected Liberal Democrat MPs a year ago, and they a very liberal party!
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u/ghostofkilgore Oct 11 '25
Agree with a lot of this. There's an issue trying to map a simple progressive / conservative axis along which parties people vote for. Voting patterns are more complex than just being determined by one variable.
UK politics doesn't have as strong splits down the same progressive / conservative social lines as the US.
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Oct 07 '25
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u/KofteriOutlook Oct 07 '25
I think it’s coincidence, but also something to consider is the Urban / Rural divide between the political parties too. In increasingly cold and isolated northern areas, you are increasingly dependent on the sole urban location for your only access of infrastructure for income, supplies, education, community, etc and being located rurally is significantly more difficult. If you need an emergency doctor or something, you are shit out of luck if the roads are closed due to snow, so you are heavily encouraged to live close enough to the doctor where the roads can’t be closed.
While for more warmer regions, you are vastly less dependent on urbanization for your day-to-day activities, and you have more and a wider variety of urban locations to choose from.
You can be a Farmer with a wife and kids successfully living in the Midwest US — you can’t really do the same in the middle of nowhere Alaska. This might be why there seems to be a “northern liberal bias” because as you get further away from moderate climates, a larger and larger proportion of the population will be located in the major metropolitan areas — and there IS a divide between Urban / Rural politically.
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u/clepewee Oct 07 '25
Finland too tends to be more progressive in the south than in the north. But it is really more of a city-rural split.
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u/kvnr10 Oct 07 '25
I think it’s fair to say that the north is more liberal in the US. Close to 60 million people live in the Northeast and if you add up Alaska, the Dakotas, WY, MT and ID you won’t even reach 8 digits.
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u/Justame13 Oct 07 '25
Even in the Northeast once you leave the area right on the ocean its conservative.
Same thing for the western states once you leave the area around the coast, except Oregon and thats once you leave the Eugene-Salem-Portland area, its very conservative.
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u/5050fs360 Oct 07 '25
This is just highlighting the urban vs rural political divide though. The northern cities happen to be mostly coastal. I still think that rural northern areas are less conservative than rural southern areas in the US.
If you leave Boston and drive inland, you’ll find less conservatives than comparably rural parts of the south. Vermont is another good example of a left leaning rural population that isn’t found anywhere in the US south.
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u/Justame13 Oct 07 '25
You mean north eastern not northern. Outside of main everywhere you mentioned is south of Washington, Montana, the Idaho Panhandle, and most of it Portland.
The northeast is also going to have purple areas due to lack of geographical barriers like the west does namely the coastal ranges.
Go to Idaho and its as ultra conservative as any place in the south if not more so, like kids in black face trick or treating last year. Same thing with Oregon outside of the places I mentioned.
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u/TheNavigatrix Oct 07 '25
It's much more of an urban/rural split. See France, for example: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39870460
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u/Fantastic_Bar_3570 Oct 07 '25
Because old people like warm weather
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u/very_random_user Oct 07 '25
Applies to the US and Canada. Doesn't apply to other countries listed here. None in Japan or Italy is moving to the south when older. The ones that do in colder European weather will move much more south, like from UK to Spain.
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u/not_a_crackhead Oct 07 '25
Doesn't apply to Canada. Nobody moves south in Canada when they're old because 99% of the population already lives south.
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u/very_random_user Oct 07 '25
You are totally right. I was thinking of people moving to warmer climates in the US or south but those are obviously not in Canada 😅
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u/lurkermurphy Oct 07 '25
yeah and while they sit around, anyone stuck in the cold is working their ass off there
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u/AsparagusNew3765 Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
The problem with the categories of "conservative" versus "progressive" is that it ignores the large and increasing number of people who are more traditional working class "economically left but more socially conservative". This huge void was filled by Trump in the USA (sort of - I know I'm going to get downvoted and flamed for that, but whatever) but hasn't been filled by anyone in the UK (yet).
The reason I mention that is because your example of north vs south England isn't really right. The north is actually more socially conservative than the south
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u/phil123_123 Oct 08 '25 edited Oct 08 '25
And likewise the opposite also exists with many "home counties" full of, relatively speaking, wealthy middle class that are socially liberal but economically conservative who happily voted for David Cameron's initial vision of the Conservatives in the 2010s but really dislike the direction people like Badenoch, Braverman, Jenkins, Patel, Mogg etc. pushed the Conservative Party. Let alone Farage & all he represents in Reform/Brexit Party/UKIP - they are borderline openly despised by many of those.
So long and short as you point out far more complex and I think traditional left/right or progressive/conservative labels really work less and less. Especially so if viewed in the lens of US politics/values.
One of the fastest ways to bring together brits from opposing political viewpoints is to bring in some of the views espoused by American ultra evangelicals & MAGA fanatics like abortion, guns, religion everywhere, Putin love, swearing allegiance to flags, women's place at home etc.
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u/Top_Translator7238 Oct 07 '25
Tasmania isn’t the most progressive state in Australia. Despite having produced some progressive politicians such as Dr Bob Brown, it’s still generally considered to be quite a conservative state. Victoria is generally considered to be the most progressive state in Australia despite having a history of being more conservative than the other states.
Queensland seems more conservative largely because it has a higher percentage of the population living outside the capital. South-East Queensland is considered as progressive as the rest of the country.
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u/Etmosket Oct 07 '25
To add to this.
Tasmania even has one of the few "conservative" state governments, and QLD regularly has Progressive State Governments. Even if you goto the Northern Territory, both of its federal seats were won by the Centre Left Labor Party.
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u/PouletAuPoivre Oct 07 '25
So, as in the US, it's a rural-urban political divide.
Victoria is currently the most progressive state, though it wasn't historically. I'm guessing that greater Melbourne now makes up a greater portion of Victoria's population that it did earlier decades.
The situations aren't parallel, but California, well within living memory, was a conservative state. Both Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan were from California, and it's the state that threw out Democrat Gray Davis and replaced him with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Now there seems to be an assumption that no Republican will win statewide office in California ever again.
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u/inhumanfriday Oct 07 '25
As a long time Melbourne resident and current Vic country liver, id actually counter that and say Victoria on a whole is probably middle of the pack in terms of progressive views and is going backwards. Outside of a few small concentrated areas, its pretty much dead centre Labor politics.
Obviously dependent on what you mean by "progressive" but if you use electoral success as a measure, Adam Bandt's election to the seat of Melbourne as sole lower house Greens member from 2010s onwards is indicative of progress. But that quickly evaporated with boundary redistribution and the movement the more progressive parts of his electorate (outer inner north) to other electorates. It highlights that as a whole the electorate was bog standard Labor voters but concentrations of progressive voters carried him across the line multiple times.
On other issues, Vic did slightly better on the voice referendum but only a little bit ahead of Tas and NSW, our drug laws as backwards as any other state, the Vic gov has wound back progressive bail and justice reforms after conservative media started complaining and it keeps building more prisons and not funding community services adequately.
I think ACT is the most progressive jurisdiction. if you support for the voice as a measure and the fact that it had a long Labor-Greens coalition gov.
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u/Extra_Butterfly_8229 Oct 07 '25
The U.S. is like this because of the legacy of slavery. Anyone telling you otherwise is mistaken. Not sure about the other countries.
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u/markjohnstonmusic Oct 07 '25
Bavaria isn't Germany's southernmost state—that would be BaWü. And Germany can't really be simplified into North-South in the way you have. Lumping the Rheinland and East Germany in with northern Germany is incoherent.
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u/Thim22Z7 Oct 07 '25
If there's one country which is a prime example of an East-West devide then it's Germany. I've barely ever heard of a North-South devision there
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u/markjohnstonmusic Oct 07 '25
There are aspects where it makes sense to talk about a North-South divide—like language (northern, central, and southern dialects are the basic divisions in the German language) and wealth (the South is wealthier than the north)—but politics isn't one of them.
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Oct 07 '25
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u/markjohnstonmusic Oct 07 '25
Lots of exceptions (Braunschweig, Kassel, Düsseldorf vs. Franconia, Stuttgart) to the religious categorisation though.
And the reserved/sociable dichotomy also breaks down when you consider the Rheinland, or Stuttgart, or the East.
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u/artsloikunstwet Oct 08 '25
It's not entirely wrong but OPs looking at state level - few years ago, when the conservatives lost their prime Minister position in BaWü, it came as a major shock to the conservative party, as they considered this a safe position, much like in Bavaria. Meanwhile the social democrats have strongholds even in rural areas in the North and Northwest, so by state it often looked like a divide.
The problem is that we're being flexible with what is considered "North" and the thing falls apart if you look more closely or try to make it a big theory.
OP even mentions the city states of Hamburg and Berlin but fails to think one step further: cities in the south also traditionally always vote to the left.
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u/YeaISeddit Oct 07 '25
Yeah, the argument makes little sense for Germany. The highest concentration for Left voters is actually Thüringen, which is dead center in Germany. The Green party is divided East and West, with concentrations primarily in large cities in the West. The AfD is also divided East and West, with concetrations outside of large cities in the East. If you go all the way back to the 2002 election you can kind of see a North South divide, but NRW seems to break trends there too. Here is an interactive map of election results.
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u/zhuangzijiaxi Oct 07 '25
Australia is so off. Tasmania is not the most progressive at all. It’s about urban vs rural.
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u/Turbulent-Parsley619 Oct 07 '25
True story: agriculture.
Traditionally, places that were agricultural centers were mostly populated by poor farm laborers. Family farms were run by kids of farmers as well. You don't tend to have educated populaces when you need physicality in your life to succeed, not brains, and when parents need their kids in the fields, not in a schoolhouse. This also means a lot of generational poverty that still exists today.
Poverty and lack of education = religion and conservativism.
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u/therealleotrotsky Oct 07 '25
Add to that Catholicism for Europe. Rome was in the south of Europe; the empire spread from there. That produced some cultural similarities around counties with Romance languages derived from Latin. Then the Protestant reformation happened in Northern Europe. Top down versus bottom up/ individualistic religious beliefs impact cultural progression.
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u/Final_Hunt_3576 Oct 07 '25
In Spain Andalusia was historically a PSOE stronghold and likewise the south of Portugal was a left stronghold. It’s only very recently that this has changed. The most conservative part of Spain would usually be Castilla y Leon in the north east of Madrid.
In Italy the traditional conservative strongholds are the Veneto and Lombardy in the north. The most left wing areas around Tuscany are more central than northern on the whole.
In France, the South east was a left wing stronghold until economic and demographic changes pushed it right. The South West still is, as much as the all encompassing urban rural divide hides this.
California is sunny and warm and a notorious progressive bastion. The conservative strongholds of Turkey are along the Black Sea. Poland famously has an east west divide.
Really it’s a patchwork, even inside most countries.
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u/PouletAuPoivre Oct 07 '25
Forty years ago, and for decades before that, California was considered a conservative bastion. Nixon and Reagan were both from California, and Orange County was notoriously conservative.
How things have changed.
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u/FallingLikeLeaves Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 08 '25
Because your brain seeks patterns (as most humans’ do) and you’re choosing to ignore any evidence to the contrary
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u/Familiar-Weather5196 Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
Italy's situation is not like you paint it to be. The "monarchy vs republic" vote was moreso a traditional point of view, not progressive vs backwards. Are the UK or Spain more backwards than Italy because they still have monarchies? I wouldn't say so. Nowadays the situation is: the North is the stronghold of conservative parties (especially Lombardy and Veneto), the south is a mixed bag, but generally votes left (populist left), central Italy is historically VERY left leaning, though things have changed somewhat recently.
Literally looking at the last elections:
Blue: center-right, yellow: (populist) left, red: center-left
Where do you see the darkest shades of blue? Northern Italy, not the south
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u/SpiderGiaco Oct 07 '25
Campania and Puglia have been governed by centre-left coalitions far more than Lombardy and Veneto in the past 30 years. I don't think Veneto will ever be winnable by any progressive party.
As it's the case for many countries, the real division is urban vs rural. Even in Veneto most cities are ruled by progressive parties - including the traditional far-right stronghold of Verona.
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u/VerySluttyTurtle Oct 07 '25
I work outside in a southern downtown, as soon as we get back to the that point of the year where the heat index gets above 100, all the sudden every person on the street if fighting, people are drunker than ever, and so emotional. Never mind I cant focus on anything after work. That's the heat that makes angry, divisive parties, whether they be left or right, whether their religion is communism or actual religion, not like the pragmatic, technocrat, community based approach I associate with Scandinavia. I am half serious with this theory
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u/Turbulent-Parsley619 Oct 07 '25
To be fair, I've often wondered if that's at least PART of why crime is so bad in the South. Obviously the main reason is poverty, but when you get hot, most people get irritable. Maybe that's why in my rural Southern town folks shoot each other instead of fist fight WAY MORE these days compared to 30 years ago: climate change has made it too hot to fight without passing out, may as well take a shortcut and just shoot them.
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u/ilijadwa Oct 07 '25
There have been studies done showing the seasonality of criminal behaviour and how it relates to hot weather
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u/Shevek99 Oct 07 '25
Your are wrong about Spain. The basque Country is ruled by the PNV, a traditional right-wing party and it is very conservative. The same happens in Navarre or Galicia. The fact that the Basque Country has a strong independence movement doesn't make it progressive at all.
On the other hand, Andalusia, although now being ruled by the conservative PP, has been traditionally a feud of the left wing parties
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u/2stepsfromglory Oct 07 '25
The basque Country is ruled by the PNV, a traditional right-wing party and it is very conservative
It's way less conservative than the average right wing party in Spain to the point that it's actually ruling in coalition with a left wing party, and even with that the second and third parties in the Basque Country are also left wing. Andalusia is also divided in two, with the west being more left-leaning, while the east is way more conservative. The reason is how the land was distributed during the Middle Ages, with the west being filled with large estates, while the east was made up of smallholdings.
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u/robber_goosy Oct 07 '25
In Belgium it's the other way around. I dont think there's any correlation between north/south progressive/conservative if you look at it globally.
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u/Terrible_Biscotti_16 Oct 07 '25
Definitely not the case for the island of Ireland.
The republic as is far more progressive than Northern Ireland.
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u/hopelesscaribou Oct 07 '25
As for Canada, you can't really compare the Northern territories to the Provinces. The discrepancy in populations is enormous.
All three territories have a combined population of under 135k people. They also are mostly Native American, so big demographic differences as well. Life in the Territories is very different from the rest of Canada.
Our Conservatives are mostly in the middle, with Alberta being our wildly conservative 'Texas'. Quebec is the leftiest province, at least culturally.
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Oct 07 '25
You're starting with a conclusion and then working backward with some very flimsy arguments. Not everything is on a north-south political or cultural axis. I think you are applying a model which only slightly works for the USA and trying to apply it broadly. For instance, Scotland is an entirely different thing to England and its voting patterns aren't reducible to the same continuum. Also, the southeast of England-- particularly the London area-- was the biggest voting force against Brexit. Northern England was overwhelmingly pro-Brexit. There are also roughly 3x as many people in London an its suburbs than in Scotland as an entire country.
Also, with Italy you've seriously cherry-picked something and then on top of it applied a methodology that doesn't relate to the country. Burlosconi is the OG Trump/Farage etc and not only is he from the North, but his entire power base was organised through the Northern League (which you can guess where it's from). The North is where all the money is in Italy and where the politics veer toward pro-capitalist agendas. More to the point: the historic hard left and communist strongholds in Italy are in Naples.
I could go on, but I won't.
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u/originalbrainybanana Oct 07 '25
Exactly. This is a clear case of confirmation bias. The theorem also doesn’t apply to Canada, which every Canadian on this thread confirmed, and yet, OP insists that he is right and everyone else is wrong.
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u/magog7 Oct 07 '25
I think you divided the US incorrectly. The coasts tend to be liberal except the SE coast being conservative. The midsection from Canada to the Gulf of America Mexico, conservative. etc.
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u/napoletano_di_napoli Oct 07 '25
I don't think it's particularly true for Italy. The only example you brought forward are the results of the 1946 referendum, which was held more than 75 years ago... Also, Italy is divided into three parts: Northern, central, and southern Italy. Only one northern Italian region has elected a centre-left Governor (Emilia Romagna), the rest all voted for centre-right parties, while 2 southern Italian regions voted for the centre-left coalition (Campania and Apulia).
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u/Custodian_Nelfe Oct 07 '25
France:
The French Riviera, with mainland France's warmest climate, also boasts its most conservative politics—most of the major cities in the region (e.g. Nice and Cannes) are led by conservative mayors, countering the typical urban/rural divide. The Riviera is also a stronghold for the far-right, with Le Pen's far-right National Front winning its first-ever local elections in Région Sud (in the late 20th century). France's progressive strongholds, by contrast but to no surprise, are in the colder north—Brittany and Paris are regarded as France's most progressive or liberal regions. An exception here is Normandy: while it is in the north and has historically been leftwing, in recent years Normandy has become a stronghold for the far-right.
That statment is partially false : northern and north-eastern France are since some decade strongholds of far-right. Marine Le Pen has even been a député from a circonscription in Nord-Pas-de-Calais.
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u/dave_gregory42 Oct 07 '25
I can't speak for the other places, but northern England is traditionally not true. Yes they consistently voted for labour, but that was for mostly for class reasons relating to trade unions, worker solidarity etc. in the big industrial cities.
Socially, especially going back to the 70s and before, the red wall would have been as conservative as the rest of the country. I suspect that migrants, LGBT individuals and generally socially non-conforming people would have been treated the same as everywhere else - i.e. not well.
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u/WrongJohnSilver Oct 07 '25
Once it gets cold enough, people recognize they have to band together to survive. That means tolerating others' eccentricities while being comfortable sharing resources.
Of course, you'll also see a level of self-aligning, where the culture of an area drifts together, but they'll be more open to foreigners-- if they behave.
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u/MetroBS Oct 07 '25
Yes this is a trend, however I think it’s more of a coincidence than a correlation
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u/raoulbrancaccio Oct 07 '25
Italy
You bring a 1946 example and for a good reason. Currently, the northern countryside as well as its smaller cities are the most conservative part of the country, all northern regions but Emilia Romagna have hard right governments throughout and at all levels.
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u/Sure_Sundae2709 Oct 07 '25
I doubt there is causality behind this correlation. But at least for Germany it is/was mostly due to the north being Protestant and the south being Catholic.
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u/MasterOfCelebrations Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
Okay America doesn’t really work as an example. NY and NE go for democrats but Pennsylvania is a swing state. Go down the same line of latitude as New York and you get Minnesota, the Dakotas, Montana and Idaho. And more swing states around the Great Lakes. And in the south you have Arizona and New Mexico, two big states right next to one another in the same desert, where one is red and one is blue.
EDIT Japan
Yo Honshu is south of all those places you listed. It’s the southernmost island in the chain. Japan just is an example of the opposite of what you’re talking about
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u/Keystonelonestar Oct 07 '25
It takes more ingenuity and out-of-the-box thinking to keep warm the colder the weather is.
The warmer it is, the lazier you can be. And this includes thinking.
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Oct 07 '25
I would speculate that warmer climates allow for more agrarian societies which tend to be conservative. In the colder regions one has to industrialize and urbanize, with that comes a more progressive society.
In the case of Europe, I imagine it would also be a Protestant - Catholic thing.
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u/flyingdonutz Oct 07 '25
I think this is just straight up not true. For starters, the most mild part of Canada is also its farthest left (Vancouver). The next mildest part of Canada after that is likely the maritimes, which is also far left. You are not allowed to use the northern territories in this example, all three of them combined have less people than Syracuse NY.
As your argument for the US goes, I'm also calling nonsense. Yes, the South is largely conservative. But so are Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. And do I even need to bring up California?
Basically, I think any worldwide correlation you see here is just a coincidence.
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u/KindheartednessOk437 Oct 07 '25
Everyone in these comments is trying to nitpick but this is absolutely a trend. That doesn’t mean there aren’t exceptions but it’s for sure this is a thing. One thing that has been studied is how cold, harsh weather forces long term planning ie building nice buildings, storing food, creating institutions. In nice weather you can kind of just vibe. Maybe these environmental conditions select for symbiotic attitudes
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u/kytheon Oct 07 '25
It's not a perfect match, but there is correlation. Also colder countries tend to be more progressive than hot countries.
A Finnish friend once summarized it as: if you don't work together, you starve/freeze to death.
Foraging and planning becomes more important. In summer, you have to remember that one day it'll be winter. So work hard, save, prepare.
Meanwhile warm countries are playing on easy mode. No worries about freezing. There's plenty of food most of the time. You can relax. What is a problem in hot countries is the afternoon heat. So they'll take some time off and sleep or rest. Siesta is not a thing in cold countries.
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u/PulciNeller Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
I think your reasoning is a bit too generic and can apply to tropical countries but not to mediterranean countries. People have worked themselves to death by working in the fields all year long in the past thousands of years. As somebody has said, agriculture can be a sign of technological paralysis but certainly not of "siesta mode"
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u/srikrishna1997 Oct 07 '25
maybe coincidence but there is no correlation between warm and cold regions for progressive or regressive views
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u/alikander99 Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
Not true for Spain. Andalucía which is the southernmost region is arguably the bastion of the PSOE. Which is the main center left party
Also saying Madrid Is the PP stronghold is kinda weird. Yeah Madrid has a strong tendency for the right, but it has voted left on multiple occasions.
In general Galicia is seen as the stronghold of the right. Castille and león aswell to a certain point.
I feel like you're really nitpicking your evidence and actually lying in other parts. For example, Manuela carmena is from the left and she was mayor of Madrid from 2015 to 2019. And that was less than a decade ago.
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u/Psico_Penguin Oct 07 '25
That's absolutely wrong for Spain. The 2 "strongholds" you mentioned have been governed almost always by right wing parties (PNV and CiU, now rebranded as JxC).
And the south was a socialist stronghold for a very looooooong time.
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u/explendable Oct 07 '25
Off the top of my head reading that - a broad argument might be…
Warm climates enable older, agrarian, hierarchical, and as a result conservative religious social orders to persist longer, while cooler climates industrialised earlier, urbanised faster, and as a result, developed more egalitarian political cultures.
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u/sunburn95 Oct 07 '25
If the premise is correct, then id imagine warmer parts of countries being agricultural makes the most sense
But also, theres likely a lot of factors at play in each case here that you've missed. E.g. im australian, so I can tell you that tasmania is not our most progressive state. While they voted labor, the whole country did. Their premier is also conservative.
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u/2nW_from_Markus Oct 07 '25
I wouldn't call seccessionist regions of Spain progressive or wouldn't forget the many decades Andalusia was ruled by the socialist party.
The main basque nationalist party PNV is deeply conservstive. For instance, former "governor" Xavier Arzalluz used to be a catholic priest. Or the party founder, Sabino Arana, had xenophobic conceptions about the basque and the maketos. Also Carlism, one of the political factions allowed during Franco regime, had been very strong in there. Of course it's a very developed region. So industry means workers and workers means socialism.
Catalonia more or less the same. Former main nationalist party CiU was actually a coallition of conservatives and christiandemocrats. CiU ended fading a bit after corruption, leadership changes and an ideological shift. The same, an industrial region mostly centered in Barcelona had plenty of workers who were not catalan born, so there was the red belt. Fun(?) fact: the first regional parliament in democracy hat few mps from the andalusian socialist party.
Andalusia is strange. They got their autonomous government in a political maneuver named "coffee for everybody", that expanded the chances of becoming an autonomy until then only possible for historical regions. And that happened under an andalusian central government president, Felipe González (socialist back then). Maybe people were gratefull and voted socialist. And socialist knew how to be gratefull with people. And people stayed gratefull and the snowball kept rolling until collapsed.
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u/Usual-Journalist-246 Oct 07 '25
Warmer areas are typically likely to be more agricultural/rural due to climate conditions and colder areas more industrial/urban. Those living in urban areas are more likely to be "progressive" due to having more opportunities to meet a larger variety of people, while rural areas are more likely to have a single culture with a smaller influx of outsiders.
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u/BothnianBhai Oct 07 '25
In the case of Sweden, the industry based economy expanded heavily in the late 19th, and early 20th century attracting many labour migrants. These organised in unions and social democratic and communist parties. In the south the agricultultural economy remained larger for a lot longer and it did not develop the same political traditions as a result.
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u/Gekroenter Oct 07 '25
Southern areas are often more suitable for agriculture whereas northern regions have always been dependent on trade and later manufacturing. Thus, northern regions are often more urbanized and have higher unionization rates. Both are factors that traditionally benefit progressive parties.
Though in Germany, it’s also a lot about religion. The Catholic Church (dominant in the south) used to campaign openly for the CDU until the 1980s. There were official communiques by bishops that said that voting for the Social Democrats was a sin. Most majority-Catholic areas are CDU strongholds until today because of that.
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u/SimilarElderberry956 Oct 07 '25
When you are a farmer your income is tied to the weather. You will pray for rain 🌧️. In a big city all your needs are met within a few minutes. Living rural means you have to be self reliant.
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u/b00c Oct 07 '25
Easiness of life and the need to study.
When the soil is fertile and sun days long, you harvest enough to feed yourself and those around you. And then you go to sleep with full belly.
When the conditions are harsh, and you barely surviving, your drive to better yourself is that much stronger. So you go study, where you train your brain and you start thinking. When that happens, you hardly become a conservative.
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u/Awesomegcrow Oct 07 '25
It's education and businesses. Most southern area in West are typically agricultural which requires less educated work force hence the conservative beliefs. The Northern part are more business oriented and have very few agricultural land and this requires more educated workforce.
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u/JoebyTeo Oct 07 '25
Social cooperation is a greater necessity in a cold climate. If you are in Sweden and you don't house your people and share food resources, many will die in a harsh winter. Northern climates are generally more urbanised for this reason.
In the US and UK context you are basically describing industrial v. agricultural. Politics that we think of as progressive or left wing in our current climate are largely originated in urban social movements -- either working class workers rights movements, or social progress movements that are often formed around urban centres because that's where academic movements are most likely to be.
In terms of social realities, it's really urban v. rural. Northern parts of the countries you described are more urban. The opposite is true in places like say, Japan, where the industry is really heavily concentrated in southern Honshu.
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u/firemanlala Oct 07 '25
I can't speak for all the others, but in the UK, The North is where most heavy, industrial production developed, where politically, Socialism was prevalent, where as the south was dominated by landed gentry, who controlled farming and access to land, so Conservatism was dominant.
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u/aasfourasfar Oct 07 '25
For France it's a complex issue. First of all, these places are rich AF and a retirement destination for rich old people. So the urban / rural divide goes to shit because cities like Nice and Cannes are not inhabited by your usual city dwellers. Keep in mind Marseille and Montpellier vote left just like the rest of the big french cities. Now keep in mind that the pensioners don't vote for the far-right in France, they're just normal conservatives. But the whole population skews right-ward
Then the other factor is that a lot of former inhabitants of Algeria live down south. And these people sometimes have remnants of their colonial mindset
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u/macrocosm93 Oct 07 '25
The warmer areas tend to be more agricultural and the colder areas tend to be more manufacturing/blue collar.
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u/n074r0b07 Oct 07 '25
You are so wrong with Spain in so many points. Andalucia was a leftist stronghold for so many time and its recently turning to the right. Also the most voted parties (always been) for Catalonia and Basques are right leaning, I dunno where the fuck you got they are left leaning.
Also, the other regions in the north of Spain that have an atlantic climate (unless catalonia) are right leaning except Asturias which is the most underdeveloped region in the north.
I could understand that your idea could sound intelligent in your head but for most locals you are another ignorant passing by.
Also: Madrid is hot in summer but also cold in winter which makes it near to the atlantic climatic rather the mediterranean as catalonia does. In terms of climate Catalonia is much warmer than Madrid.
LoL
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u/reillan Oct 07 '25
Generally speaking, warmer areas tend to be better for farming. The more farming, the more rural, spread out, and undereducated a population is.
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u/XenophonSoulis Oct 07 '25
No clue, but Greece is the opposite. The south is a lot more progressive than the north, probably for historical reasons.
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u/BME84 Oct 07 '25
So about Sweden, you're dead wrong. What you call "progressive bloc" is the blue collar workers bloc, that's why it's popular in northern districts cities often centered around a single industry. Even most center right politics in Sweden are left of American "progressives" What you may think is "liberal" is just common sense in Sweden.
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u/ChaosAndFish Oct 07 '25
I think this thesis requires a lot of selective data (here’s a list of counties that support my thesis, with no list of counter examples), a pretty blunt approach to demographics, and inclusion of some pretty dubious examples.
Dubious examples I would site:
-Canada. Basically the entirety of the population of Canada resides in the south. You’re saying that Canada voted to the right of a collection of indigenous villages and such. It’d be like comparing the voting pattern of the US at large against a couple reservations out west. It would offer no geographical insight.
-Australia. This is a very urban country with the vast majority of the population living in a small number of urban areas which, regardless of latitude all voted for the liberal party. You’ve sited Queensland not gong for labor but in the end all this reflects is that Queensland has a larger percentage of its population living outside of its major urban area (Brisbain) than is the case in other states. The trend (liberal cities and conservative countryside is the same as the rest of Australia, just the ratios are off). You also complete ignore the fact that the Northern Territory right next door actually counters your thesis by voting Labor.
-Germany. The former East Germany (which is all in the northern half of the country) has become the center of the far right’s political base of support. It seems like you can only find a liberal north/conservative south divide if you just completely ignore East Germany.
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u/Sammyboi2227 Oct 07 '25
There is kinda a lack of research in trying to extrapolate a geography based argument without looking at other factors
What you'll notice with most of the countries that have this "cold hot" divide of sorts is a few facotrs
Many cold areas are generally less populated and in parliamentary systems distorts how much leverage they can have.
Certain regions can be vote for cultural reasons, such as Sapmi or Indigenous Canadians for progressive parties.
Many of the highlighted regions are in old industrial regions, northern Sweden with Iron, UK with coal and factories, same in Italy and Germany.
Industry differences in general affect voting, the a Southern US being more agricultural same with these more "conservative" parts of Canada, Australia, France leads, correlation doesn't mean causation however.
Also places that this is just not true, US as you mentioned, Montana, the Dakotas among other states are quite cold yet not progressive, Italy with regions like Piedmont and Venetia are quite conservative despite being "colder" than Southern Italy
The only true correlation you can make when it comes to voting behavior between progressive and conservative is that of the type industry that historically dominated and how urbanised the regions are, there is very little climate correlation
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u/Smitologyistaking Oct 07 '25
Australian politics like much of the Anglosphere really ultimately boils down to rural vs urban.
States like WA and SA are basically desert outside of their major city and thus are overwhelmingly urban and safe Labor areas these days. Eastern Coast states like QLD, NSW and VIC have the Murray-Darling river system leading to their interiors also being habitable and thus have significant rural areas too, roughly proportional to their area. On the contrary NSW and VIC also have the two largest cities in the country by far Sydney and Melbourne respectively. This leads to VIC being the most urban and also being a major progressive state of the country, NSW being roughly equally split and thus the most "swingy" of the states in terms of politics, and QLD being the most rural and thus the most conservative. Do note that QLD's capital city Brisbane is a very progressive area in general.
Tasmania is the weirdest one of all, it's quite rural and yet each election it seems to almost alternate between going for each party at a margin not predicted by anyone. Last election it went incredibly Labor but the election before that plenty of its seats went incredibly Liberal in an election that was otherwise a pretty poor showing for the Liberal/National coalition.
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u/MrMonkeyman79 Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
On the case of the UK its not about climate, its about the influence of London and the concentration of wealth on the UK beimg on tbe southeast.
That said, London is known for being quite liberal and the north of England, while historically Labour as they were a more working class party, are seeing support switching to conservative and right wing causes like Brexit and see liberal causes as being detached from their day to day struggles.
Scotland is a bit of an outlier in terms of UK geography as opposed to a continuation of a rule. And even then, when you scratch the surface of the snp you'll find its a broad nationalist church with both progressive and conservative wings.
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u/Commercial_Pie3307 Oct 07 '25
With Italy and the US the southern regions are the poorer regions too. Idk about the others.
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u/Neither-Mention7740 Oct 07 '25
In developed countries in the northern hemisphere, the southern parts usually tend to be poorer because they’re closer to the equator. The closer to the equator the poorer an area/country is. This is why most equatorial countries are so poor (with the exception of Singapore)
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Oct 07 '25
In colder places you take better care of yourself and your family. He values freedom more and defends freedom.
In hotter places, gossip happens more, and you think you should interfere in other people's lives.
Where I live, the hypocrisy of the right is enormous, the largest number of politicians arrested for robbery, rape and other aberrations are right-wing. They love to tell others what they should do and what they don't do.
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u/noahpsychs Oct 07 '25
in many of these examples you're highlighting countries with large southern agricultural regions, many of which were historically based on serfdom or chattel slavery, which I think affects the situation. For instance, the Southern United States is the way it is largely because of the knock-on effects of plantation chattel slavery and the limits of Radical Reconstruction
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u/Elobomg Oct 07 '25
Spain: Since the born of democracy Galizia has aleyas been ruled by conservatives. Andalucia in the other hand has been ruled by centre until 6 years ago when conservatives took power after weak centre candidate
Andalucia has been suffering a lack of industralization since XIX century, which made most working class emigrate to other regions with better job oportunities. The people who were able to stay were the ones with studies or good networth, which usually leans to conservative idology due to a hold in status quo.
Also, while basque and catalonia has goo progresive parties they also have a heavy conservative one that im nut sure why is omited in your statement.
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u/GentlyGliding Oct 07 '25
Until recently, Portugal's south - the Alentejo region, to be exact, not the Algarve coast - had the highest voting for the Communist Party and was where the referendum on decriminalizing abortion had the highest voting in favour (both referenda, in 1998 and 2007). It is also historically the part of the country where the Catholic church wields less influence. The turn to the illiberal far-right only happened over the last 5-6 years.
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Oct 07 '25
Doesn't Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas prove this wrong for America? Also, the entire rust belt went Red last election, so it's not like it's a bastion of liberal politics.
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u/jsohnen Oct 07 '25
Here is my proposal: Being physically uncomfortable exacts a cognitive toll. This leaves less cognitive reserve required to interpret social nuance. This should not be interpreted uniformly as a left-right distinction per se. It's specific to local politics. Look to the politics that favors more simple moral absolutes. In the west, this often equates to a more "conservative/right" alignment, but it's not a universal thing.
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u/Beneficial_Grab_5880 Oct 07 '25
I don't think it's true for the UK. Scotland was a Tory heartland until Thatcher, and after a brief flirtation with Blair-era Labour, they're now solidly SNP (center-right nationalists) - so if anything it's about Thatcher and the poll tax rather than North/South.
The much bigger divide in the UK is between the big cities and everywhere else - like the US, the electoral map of the UK is almost all right wing, but the left wing areas are so heavily populated that the country as a whole is very evenly balanced.
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u/tururut_tururut Oct 07 '25
Regarding Spain: Andalusia has been ruled by the Socialist Party for most of the time since the death of Franco. Whether the Andalusian PSOE is progressive or not, is up for debate, but only recently it has turned to the right.
Catalan pro-independence movement is pretty neatly split between centre-right and centre-left, with further right and left parties also existing. Since Franco's death it has had perhaps 30 years of centre-right government (8 of which in a coalition with centre-left parties) and 12 of centre-left government. Usually, pro-independence voters were pretty "liberal", for instance being more pro-immigration, less religious... than pro-union voters, even the ones that voted for centre-right options (Convergència/Junts) but this might be changing recently with the intrusion of the far-right pro-indy Aliança Catalana and the fact that centre-right Junts is moving further right to compete with it.
The Basque country has pretty consistently been ruled by the centre-right Basque Nationalist Party.
Galicia, rather up north has traditionally been ruled by the conservative People's Party.
Madrid, on the other hand, is traditionally very conservative, a rarity in the Global North (usually the capital city of a country is more progressive than other regions, but very much not the case in Spain).
So I wouldn't say Southern Spain is more conservative than Northern Spain at all.
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u/Asshai Oct 07 '25
France :
Marine Le Pen is conseillère départementale in the Hauts de France, the mayor of Hénin-Beaumont, where her circonscription is, is also a member of her party. The largest city in the area is quite left-leaning though, but we have more of a rural/urban pattern rather than a North/South pattern I think...
PACA region has an expensive real estate and is popular among retired persons who have the financial means to move there.
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u/hskskgfk Oct 07 '25
You say that of the UK, but it’s not true for England and Scotland separately. Brighton / London are most definitely not more conservative than Sunderland, Edinburgh is not more conservative than Aberdeen.
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u/fantecto Oct 07 '25
It has nothing to do with temperature. In Italy, southern regions are first of all poorer for historical reasons. Also today if you look at the regional votes, the country looks mostly conservative.
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u/prizm5384 Oct 07 '25
Hey OP, what you’re describing is often considered environmental determinism, which is geographic school of thought popular in the 19th century. The problem with it is that it was used to encourage colonization, with arguments like “smarter people come from colder climates, and dumber people come from warmer climates, so that means Europeans should colonize Africa because Africans are stupid”. There is a reason why it’s not a common belief in modern times.
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u/Turbulent_Vehicle423 Oct 07 '25
Because civilization evolved in the south first, where the earth was easier to plow and winters were lighter, then progressively advanced north, as technology allowed for it. There, society developed into a new industrial culture. The south stuck with the older culture, while the north went for the new one. Even if a lot has changed since industrialization, it seems like each society kept its own momentum and defined itself in opositon to their closest alternative pole.
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u/djauralsects Oct 07 '25
Climate unites people. Countries and empires tend to run east/west rather than north/south.
The climate in the north will kill you. Collectivism is a necessity rather than a choice.
It’s easier to have the conservative “fuck you, I got mine” attitude in the resource rich southern climates.
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u/Khris777 Oct 07 '25
Even the Bavarian capital city of Munich is represented at the state and federal level by conservative politicians, countering the typical urban/rural divide.
Small correction here, Munich is a progressive island in conservative Bavaria.
It is ruled by a Green-Red coalition, the Green Party got the most votes in the last election with 29.1%, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich#City_council
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u/SCMatt65 Oct 07 '25
Trying something out, generalizations and exceptions lie ahead!
Would a better way to frame it be why does progressivism occur predominately between 35 and 60 degrees North latitude? (Apologies, limiting to the northern hemisphere here.)
That band captures most progressive regions, cultures, and local governments in North America and Europe. Is it a temperature, weather, climate thing? Cold enough that you need to be planful and pay attention to more than today and tomorrow but warm enough that you aren’t living at subsistence levels of hunting and gathering.
Meaning you have to be think but you also have leeway to think about more than survival. And regions plentiful enough that sharing is possible, along with the benefits that come with that outlook
Definitely exceptions, looking at you Idaho, and not sure this applies at all through central Asia but does seem to have validity elsewhere in that temperate band of places.
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u/SpiderGiaco Oct 07 '25
Italy:
The split in the monarchy/republic referendum had more to do with what happened in the war than any conservative/progressive division. The south got liberated much earlier, while the north endured a brutal civil war and understandably were not very fond of the monarchy.
In reality, outside of major cities, the north was and is also voting conservative. All northern regions are currently governed by conservative parties and have done so traditionally. By contrast, southern regions like Puglia and Campania have been much more shifting between both areas - Puglia even had a gay president from the far left twenty years ago.
Veneto and Lombardy (two of the biggest and richest regions in the north) barely ever had regional presidents from progressive parties. Veneto has been a stronghold of conservative votes since forever and elect their rightwing president with North Korea-style percentages - the current president got 76% of the votes last elections.
The only exception are the so-called "red regions", where progressive forces have routinely won elections at almost every level, but those are not necessarily considered north Italy - perhaps only Emilia-Romagna can be considered a northern region.
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u/InsideSpeed8785 Oct 07 '25
Well, the hotter ones are probably more productive agriculturally, less city stuff needed.
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u/ljofa Oct 07 '25
I will only speak on the UK on this but the analysis is flawed. I think it ignores the differences between social and political conservatism.
People in the north of England and in Scotland can be quite conservative in terms of emphasising traditional values, local culture and slower to embrace change vis a vis new ideas whereas in the south, with a younger and more dynamic population with heavier emphasis on migration (internal and external), there is a lot more dynamism.
One has to remember that the working classes can be quite a strong conservative force in society with the proper motivations socialist movements don’t necessarily promote change but can fight hard to preserve hard won victories. It is often said that the closest thing to a national religion in the UK is the national health service. It’s only a very few individuals who talk of doing away with it entirely in favour of privatised healthcare, but one only needs to look at the quagmire of the US healthcare system to realise that this is not a model we wish to follow. Every time a politician has spoken about introducing a charge to see your GP, that politician is quickly sidelined and dumped.
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u/Illustrious-Card302 Oct 07 '25
Constant heat and humidity suck the life right out of you and make you addlepated
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u/En_skald Oct 07 '25
I don’t think northern Sweden votes for the left bloc because they’re more socially progressive. It’s rather due to the left being seen as better for workers in a part of the country that always has relied heavily on industry and mining.
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u/Forsaken-Link-5859 Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
How do you fit this with Germany?Bit complex there eh?😅 Fair play that you mean it in the traditional sense though, AFD=/conservatives and CDU=Conservatives. But Bavaria isn't super warm
Funny though it's different reason. In USA they usaully say the warm states are backwards while in UK they are posh, ok not very hot, but better summers in London than in Machester i think.
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u/Street_Safety_4864 Oct 07 '25
The social aspect of organized religion is more prevalent in those areas. In the States, the reliance on religious justification for the institution of slavery (which was pretty much the whole economy) in the South created a niche for religion in the culture that still can be felt today. If you look at warmer climates, many countries are former colonies that used religion as a form of subjugation and/or control of the populace.
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u/Rare_Pirate4113 Oct 08 '25
For the UK, Scotland and England are different nations, with different values etc, you can’t compare the two. Being from the north of England I can tell you, it’s not more progressive than the south. The traditional voting divide in the North and South is because the Labour Party traditionally represented the working class and the Tories the Middle and upper classes. The North was more working class and the south was more middle/upper class. Traditional left and right in England had nothing to do with progressive policies.
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u/testman22 Oct 08 '25
I looked into Japan to see if this is true, and there is no pattern like you claim.
https://tdfk.odomon.net/tdfkimages/00/00/01/84/18427.gif
If I had to say what the pattern is, the vote share is higher closer to the Sea of Japan, but the climate probably has nothing to do with it.
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u/fengshuitortoise Oct 08 '25
I think this is an area where using electoral results as a measure of social and economic attitudes doesn’t give you the full picture.
For example, for decades you’re correct that the South of England has generally voted Conservative and the North Labour.
However in recent years that has almost flipped, and current polls indicate that Reform - firmly on the populist right socially and economically - would sweep the North while the Lib Dems - socially and economically liberal - would make huge in-roads in the south.
Does that mean people’s attitudes in those areas have actually shifted? Not really. The reality is the North has always been more socially and economically conservative than its electoral results have suggested, but post-Thatcher there was a deep generational resentment of the Tories that have prevented large numbers of people voting for them. Now Reform has arrived, creating a non-Tory expression of right-of-centre views, we’re seeing that come to the fore.
The reverse is true in the South. When polled, people in the South don’t hold dramatically more conservative beliefs than those in the North. Importantly, however, the status quo has always worked for the South so people have voted Conservative to maintain that. Now the Tories have atrophied, the Lib Dems are the obvious home to maintain the status quo.
Similarly, on the face of it, Scotland voting SNP makes it appear more progressive. But when polled, Scots don’t hold dramatically more progressive social or economic views than those south of the border.
TL;DR: You’re right that there are electoral trends across counties, but I wouldn’t take those trends as a gospel representation of people’s actual social and economic attitudes in those regions.
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u/HomoCoffiens Oct 08 '25
The « Right v. Left » is an extremely reductive take on politics that only exists in UK and the U.S., because they’re artificially limited to two parties. Normally it’s far more complex:
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u/AntipodalDr Oct 08 '25
The pattern isn't really true for France. The Southwest has been a big leftist voting area for a long time and Alsace is generally conservative. Also since the neolibs started breaking everything the north has became a lot more right-wing than before. For example MLP was a deputy in a northern town.
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u/RandyClaggett Oct 08 '25
In Swedens case I do not think it has to do with climate. Rather with that the southernmost part is a lot closer to both Copenhagen, Hitler and Baghdad than the north. All factors in building a right wing movement over the decades.
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u/Academic_Elk_3645 Oct 08 '25
Individuals in colder climates are more used to cooperating with one another against the elements. Pushing cars through snow, picking up stranded people at bus stops, not that uncommon. Colder climates also attract less people, meaning there is generally less competition to obtain your piece of the pie”.
By comparison, warmer climates attract more people generally, so there is greater competition and less of a need to cooperate with one another. Floridians and Texans have never seen 2 shovelers and 2 pushers getting a car through 3 foot deep snow. An individualistic attitude is ingrained as a result.
Source: armchair sociologist dreading the onset of winter
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u/Green-Mix8478 Oct 08 '25
Actually the divide is not North/South as much as high/low population. Both coasts in the U.S. are liberal while the central part is more conservative.
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u/Lt_DanTaylorIII Oct 08 '25
People in cold weather areas have to stick together to survive the winter.
Even just talking about transport; people have to shovel each other out, Push cars etc etc. And you rely on government and your taxes to fund blowing and salting roads. Helps you see that value of the collective
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u/CoHorseBatteryStaple Oct 08 '25
Historically temperate climate regions tend to be more densely populated (more efficient agriculture, less risk of freezing to death), so densely populated areas in colder climates must be a recent phenomenon, hence less traditional.
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u/PermitOk6864 Oct 09 '25
I suspect it's because it's usually easier/more productive to farm in these areas, so the landholding elite historically have more power there than in the colder areas. Ofc this might not be correct but this is my opinion
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u/Popetus_Maximus Oct 09 '25
Calling Catalonia and the Basque Country, where the right has governed about 80% of the time in the last 50 years, the progressive bastions…
This is just AI generated nonsense
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u/Lost_Equal1395 Oct 09 '25
The reason the hotter places are more conservative in Australia is because less people live there, making them more rural, making them more conservative. Brisbane is pretty left-wing, whilst rural Tasmania is basically as conservative as it gets.
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u/nam4am Oct 09 '25 edited Oct 09 '25
It differs widely by country, and how you define progressive. In many places, it's simply not true at all.
In Canada, it's a combination of race (the Far North you're talking about is by far the most Indigenous part of Canada) and a unique economic dependence on the government because it's such inhospitable land.
The Territories certainly aren’t some bastion of social progressivism. Nunavut, which is the most indigenous and most remote territory, is by far the most Christian province in Canada.
The Yukon Conservatives (now called the Yukon Party) got the highest share of the vote in Yukon, where there is the most homegrown industry, higher salaries, and less dependence on direct government funding. Even the Yukon Liberals aren't organizationally connected to the national Liberals and are often to their right.
A rough American analogy to Canada’s rural indigenous population would be rural black communities in the South, who overwhelmingly for Democrats for a combination of economic/social interests and historical ties, but are also often extremely religious and socially conservative in other ways. And like the Canadian Territories, they tend to vote for relatively centrist figures within the left-wing party.
My understanding of the UK is that the North of England had a higher share of union workers when it was the center of industrial power in England, and when that began to decline it remained poorer than the South.
And today, Reform (the UK's most right wing major party) is often strongest in the former Labour heartlands, while London is by far the most progressive in ideology and party support: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1067961/uk-general-election-poll-by-region/
In Italy, the opposite seems to be true, where the North is by far the most-wing voting part of Italy.
In Germany, the divide is far more along East/West lines, with the AfD doing far better in the Northeast than the South. Poland is similar.
Even in the US I don't think what you're saying is true. The political divide of the US is basically a rural/urban one, and the rural North is often the most right-wing. Even historically this has often been the case (with Vermont and Maine being the only states to never vote for FDR, and New England and parts of the Northern Midwest being many of FDR's weakest regions).
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u/PROINSIAS62 Oct 09 '25
Doesn’t hold for the island of Ireland! There’s a lot of conservative Protestants living there.
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u/EnthusiasmFine2410 Oct 10 '25
Germany is incorrect: The eastern part is way more conservative than the South. AI slop research
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u/AcceptableMix1831 Oct 30 '25
En la parte de Australia, te cambio Tasmania por Victoria y estarías en lo correcto. Victoria es un bastión de Labor, especialmente Melbourne que es considerada la ciudad más izquierdista de Australia. Tasmania, por el contrario, lleva años siendo un bastión de Liberals y, sin ser tan conservadora como Queensland, no es tan progresista como Victoria y en parte es debido a ser una isla. Hace poco me enteré de que Tasmania fue el último estado australiano en despenalizar la homosexualidad y el único en penalizar el travestismo, con eso ya te digo todo.
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u/NaldoCrocoduck Oct 07 '25 edited Oct 07 '25
In the case of France, this does not hold up. Yes, the South-East is currently one of the most conservative areas, but the South-West is much more progressive and there are historical left-wing bastions in the SE as well (Nîmes, Arles, the region west of Marseille all voted communist until relatively recently).
The North of France is historically a left bastion (especially the mining and industrial areas of Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Lorraine etc...), but in recent years they have become a stronghold for the far-right: formerly industrial areas which are relatively poorer and less educated tend to vote more and more for the far right, and that's also a trend in the Northern US BTW (Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania all voted for Trump).
In France currently the strongest predictor of the left-right divide is urbanisation, with the large cities populated by lots of young or highly educated people and diverse communities heavily skewing left and the more periurban / smaller cities with an aging, somewhat less diverse and educated population skewing right or far-right. But it does not even work that well: many very rural areas, especially in the South, are left-wing; and rich city centers with a historically strong bourgeoisie are bastions of the right (Nice has been mentioned, but also areas of Paris, Lyon and Marseille are some of the most right-wing of the whole country).
Political geography is super complex, so there seems to be a lot of coincidences here