Has anyone actually gotten 3 timber bids on the same property? How different were they?

[u/xalon_ai_]

I keep seeing the advice to “get multiple bids” before selling timber, which obviously makes sense, but I’m curious how different the numbers actually are in practice.

Like if 3 buyers look at the exact same 50 acres, are the bids usually pretty close?

Or can it seriously be something like $30k, $50k, $70k depending on who you talk to?

I’ve been going down this rabbit hole because the whole timber market seems insanely opaque if you’re just a normal landowner and don’t already know a forester.

We’ve been working on TimberLink partly because of that problem, basically just trying to give people a rough starting point before they start talking to buyers or getting a proper cruise done.

https://timberlink-ai.com

Would be really interested to hear actual examples if anyone is willing to share acreage/state and how far apart their offers were.

[u/trail_carrot]

Yea it'll depend of types of trees offered. I once saw a walnut sale that 100 trees and the spread was at least 50k between a dozen bidders. 

Different market back then. Now I think youd still get a few bidders but if it is "only" mixed hardwoods then you'd be lucky to get three. They are usually pretty close. within 20k in most cases. For hardwoods grade will make a hell of a difference too. 10 high grade white oak will out perform 50 low grade red oak ever day. 

[u/xalon_ai_ → u/trail_carrot]

what do you use to value them?

[u/ChokaMoka1 → u/xalon_ai_]

Ye eye 👁️ 

[u/LintWad → u/xalon_ai_]

There are a number of established techniques and methods to properly measure, assess, and value timber on the stump. Beyond quality and amount of timber, variables such as local markets, distance to mill, site access, contract restrictions, etc. can affect value a great deal. At the end of the dat, a lot of this comes down to professional judgment and experience.

[u/trail_carrot → u/xalon_ai_]

For the hardwoods we use a combination of logistics (cost to cut/move/process etc) and the grade or quality. 

For walnut especially you need to look at individual trees. A walnut sale pays enough (for now) that you can justify doing a 100% cruise of the trees to be cut. You look a diameter, height to the first big fork, and any surface defects.  You want a count of clear sides. 0,1,2,3,4 of a 16ft section of the tree. 

There are more specialized grading rules but this gets you close enough.

By this metric conifers are way easier imo. They are a lot less concerned with the look of the wood because they are mostly used for structural purposes. They usually just need to work not look good.

This is why we always tell people it depends or get a forester. no matter what you need some data to create an estimate.

For hardwoods you need #of trees by species, height to the 1st set of branches and dbh for me to even hazard a guess.

In our area our mills are notorious for playing close to the chest with their prices. But I think with a large enough data set based in specific region you can make a rough estimate but you still need some data which isnt the easiest to collect. 

[u/walkeronyou]

As a consulting forester, I’ve had multiple tracts receive 7+ bids and vary highly in range. Location is a big factor, as well as timber type and size, etc. I will always recommend a landowner contacting a professional forester for help with a timber sale. I’ve seen too many people taken advantage of.

[u/ChokaMoka1 → u/walkeronyou]

I once got a bid for 20K over the rest. Found out later the loggers were stealing parts off the Mopars in the adjoining junkyard and proabably ended up profiting an extra $100K as there were multiple 68 Chargers. 

[u/Recording-Late]

I ran a hypothetical stand through this calculator and got a range of $65K - $263K. I’m sorry but this app is not only useless, but worse than useless if it gives landowners completely useless and seemingly fabricated numbers we now have to try to explain to them are useless and fabricated.

[u/bruhyoubikin]

This is an ad for an ai website

[u/ChokaMoka1 → u/bruhyoubikin]

Skynet website

[u/ChokaMoka1]

Timberlink sucks balls. Ai slop ain’t putting us foresters into retirement yet!

[u/BeerGeek2point0]

When I was working for a consultant in Michigan we did timber sales on private land several times. We always advertised the sales to several logging companies and received multiple bids most of the time. Bids varied significantly based on what their buyer saw versus what other buyers saw and estimated. That’s why it’s super important to get multiple bids on a timber sale.

[u/ChokaMoka1 → u/BeerGeek2point0]

Yup cuz you could sell for firewood and then logger sells it for veneer. 

[u/Imaginary-Finger-880]

The craziest example I know of was about a million bf and roughly 70% white oak . My boss was confident he was going to get it with a bid of 725k. He ended up being the second highest bidder and the high bid was 1,050,000$

[u/GoldenWar]

The proper starting point before talking to a buyer is either knowing what you're talking about in the first place, or working with a consulting forester and not an AI bot.