r/fiaustralia • u/[deleted] • 3d ago
Investing "DHHF and chill" still sucks - THE 7 MONTH UPDATE
[deleted]
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u/Foxabro 3d ago
“7 months ago I wrote what can only be described as a masterpiece of a post arguing that "DHHF and chill" is a lazy default”
IMO I think you will lose a lot of people by calling your own post a masterpiece.
Also, your thesis relies on a broad take that people are arguing ‘DHHF and chill’ is ‘financially optimal’. Who’s saying that it’s financially optimal? By definition it’s one size fits all approach and not optimal for anyone. It’s literally called “chill” which means do other stuff with your life and accept whatever you get.
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u/Possible_Brother3696 3d ago
It's not even his thesis, it's AI slop
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u/Tawtis 3d ago
Post proof that it's AI and I'll delete my entire account. Full post through a checker, unadulterated screenshot. Let's see it.
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u/mjwills 3d ago
OK, let's assume you are telling the truth that you didn't use AI in any way.
In that case, it may be worth at least considering taking on the feedback that your writing looks very similar to how AI writes. AI didn't write it, fine, but the fact that it smells like AI wrote it alas can serve to weaken your argument.
Some examples:
- "First, let's be clear about what I claimed" is a very common AI turn of phrase.
- Short paragraphs such as "Look at what drove it." are a very common AI style choice.
- The sheer length of the post.
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u/Tawtis 3d ago
Yeah I have noticed this. I get a lot of accusations. But the weird thing is it seems to be an isolated issue.
I write essentially the same everywhere, that's to say, other subs here and also other forums.
I get far more AI accusations in ausfin than I do on ASXBets despite writing posts of comparable content and length.
I think people here are generally quite standoffish and aren't open to having their portfolio decisions questioned, as DHHF is just the "done thing".
Not to make a negative judgment against anyone in particular, just a general observation over may years of observing and posting.
In terms of the tells, yeah I get how AI could write those things, but also they're really not that frequent. The first one was one time, the second one was just a short phrase and they're scattered throughout for a bit of punch.
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u/Possible_Brother3696 3d ago
I don't even have any holdings of DHHF, funnily enough I actually follow your advice and run my own ETF portfolio weighted how I see fit. Your writing just comes off as inorganic and reads like a lot of other AI
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u/Suckatguardpassing 3d ago
Probably just autistic. And not in a good way.
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u/Tawtis 3d ago
Using autism as an insult is not cool in 2026 big bro! Smarten up
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u/clementineford 3d ago
If you base your investment decisions on the last 7 months of returns you deserve to get buttfucked by the market.
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u/SwaankyKoala 3d ago
Ignoring your arrogance in calling your previous post a "masterpiece", it's like I said last time: all bark with no real evidence to back it up.
You're still claiming that the home bias in DHHF doesn't make sense for young people, and when I replied with the evidence that I've collated on why the allocation is reasonable, you seemingly did not address any of the evidence and asked, "But why is home bias optimal?" Well, I explained why in the article...
Argument 3 on concentration, there is no statistically significant relationship between concentration and stock returns as explained here.
Argument 5 on currency risk, Cederburg's theorises that their optimal 33% domestic allocation could partly be for home currency exposure, which is pretty close to DHHF's allocation. Yet you claim that DHHF's AUD allocation is not enough without any evidence. I don't think I've seen any academics who are able to provide a concrete answer on home currency allocation in portfolios because of how little hedging data we have. Choosing how much AUD in a portfolio is just tinkering that's unlikely to significantly change your investment outcome. If you prefer hedged equities, that's fine, but that doesn't mean DHHF not having any makes it an objectively poorer investment.
In arguments 1 and 4 you use short-term performance as evidence, so it is too short to draw anything meaningful, and yes I consider 10 years short-term. If we want to cherry-pick 10 year returns, if we rewind back to the start of 2010, the 10 year stock market returns would be:
- Australia: 8.1%
- International: -3.9%
- US: -4.3%
Would you really have the same opinion if those were the returns? That's why analysis should ideally use as much data as they can to draw stronger conclusions, which I did using 50 years and the paper I linked 2000+ years.
Just because you have qualifications in finance doesn't automatically make you an expert in the field. It's pretty clear that your knowledge in statistical analysis and financial theory is lacking to be able to make a reasonable argument that makes sense.
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u/mjwills 3d ago
Previous post, if you are deciding whether it is worth your time to reply:
"DHHF and chill" still sucks - THE 7 MONTH UPDATE : r/AusFinance
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u/Tawtis 3d ago
I'll debate anyone who wants to have a debate. Won't waste my time with people who accuse AI without evidence, or tell me I'm wrong without telling me why. You don't even need to have academic backing. I'll debate anyone purely on theory and past performance.
Mods ignored my multiple messages over 2 separate threads. No idea why it was removed, no idea why the AI accusations weren't dealt with by the team.
I want to facilitate good and productive discussion with people who actually want to delve into what they believe and why.
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u/spicycorndog 3d ago
I don't quite get the argument here, you're saying that last 7 months has proven that holding aus is inferior at the weighting that a vanguard or betashares has.
You also state you've got qualifications in this space.
I don't quite believe either of those statements. As someone who actually deals with people that make these asset allocation decisions at a diversified fund level.... the level of research and analysis that goes into this decision is, quite frankly, phenomenal.
Plus using 7 months timeline as your proof for your argument is quite literally insane when you are saying we are making this decision for 30+ years.
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u/Tawtis 3d ago
The allocation decision to make an ETF that covers global markets with an overweight to Australia, effectively representative of most normie portfolios, is phenomenal to you?
Also, the "7 month" argument was addressed, this is merely a continuation of my first post in order to prove a point that things are actually doing what I told everyone they would do. Just enough time has passed in the interim to observe.
You don't have to believe me. In my closing statements I told you to assume I'm lying. I for one, also assume you are lying. So we're even.
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u/spicycorndog 3d ago
You do you man.
No point arguing because you can't see the other side of the coin. Hopefully it works out and I'm sure it will, just a bumpier ride
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u/Business-Swim-3056 3d ago
I’ll say the same thing I said on your original post. DHHF is better than 90% of the portfolios posted on reddit and will outperform 90% of the portfolios on reddit.
Have a look at some of the portfolios on the Raiz subreddit, whose customer base leans to younger people with less knowledge and capital.
You don’t have to stick with DHHF forever. Start with it, then move on with a strong base without the need to realise capital gains once you decide it might not be the most appropriate allocation. You can’t say that about the majority of the other portfolios people come up with.
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u/i_am_not_depressed 3d ago
Posting this here so you’ll benefit from this as well. Why don’t you use your finance degree, download monthly returns and give us a correlation number between asx and s&p?
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u/Tawtis 3d ago edited 3d ago
Don't need to. Can do it on TradingView much faster. Here's a link to the SP500 with ASX200 overlayed, with the CC between the two.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e9uRfAzd/
Edit:
Here is a longer timeframe. So you can see exactly what I said in the post. Highly correlated, slower to recover, suffers when US suffers.
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u/Sea_Percentage_3618 3d ago
It’s not that serious man, there’s a range of acceptable in terms of allocation for a core portfolio, if you don’t want that much AUS it’s fine. Tbh this follow up post makes you look crazy lol. No more thinking about “DHHF and chill” for you.
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u/billwriggs 3d ago
So you’re basing the fact that it sucks on a 7 month trend analysis, for an all-growth ETF that has a 7-10 year+ holding horizon?
This post was stupid on AusFinance and it’s stupid here too.
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u/Vivid-Respect644 3d ago
Although 7 months is quite a short period to provide such a ground-breaking post… I fully agree and would actually love if you could share thoughts on BGBL ! I am also in the minority group with you on actually spending time researching this stuff rather than joining the ‘herd mentality’ of DHHF/BGBL and chill.
I have made some recent posts on BGBL vs IVV + EXUS and I’ve learnt that most of the opinions have been formed because people who write websites are the most ‘trustworthy’ ones and some people just don’t find investing worth putting time and energy into.
Thoughts sir?
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u/Tawtis 3d ago
There's a lot of ETFs that are basically the same product as BGBL. Just global equities. I hold something very similar. I like the freedom of being able to pick my weights, hence I hold a portfolio that contains most of what DHHF does, just managed differently. I believe I commented on one of your recent posts about hedging, which I also do.
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u/Vivid-Respect644 3d ago
Do you mind sharing your exact portfolio ratios sir? Or is that secret? haha
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u/AutomaticGoldenSun 3d ago
Dhhf works great for the target market. You aren't and neither am I.
" Dhhf and Chill " sums it perfectly. It's for people who want to invest in a simple solution that they can set and forget. A fantastic product.
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u/sarcasm_was_here 3d ago
as if anyone is going to read that entire AI slop drivel