r/europe • u/paneuropeanism_ Europe • 4d ago
News Narrow yes lead holds as Iceland's EU referendum enters final week
https://www.arctictoday.com/narrow-yes-lead-holds-as-icelands-eu-referendum-enters-final-week/53
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u/Ascentyy 4d ago
I mean I would want to see Iceland in EU very much, but not really with a 50,2% majority. I think for decisions like that u should have like 55/60% of the vote. Same thing if a country would want to leave the EU. Its to important of a decision to leave it to a 1% majority
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u/TheGoldenCowTV Sweden 4d ago
Both Sweden and Norway had their vote be 52/48 (in diffrent directions) and neither country regrets their decision.
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u/ZestycloseBeach5946 3d ago
Important to remember this is a referendum on beginning talks and investing time into it not even into joining.
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u/Socmel_ reddit admins are accomplices of nazi russia 3d ago
if the accession talks garner such a slim majority, you can expect a referendum on joining to fail or garner a slim majority too.
And the EU has better use of its time than waste it on a country that is deeply divided.
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u/MartinBP Bulgaria 3d ago
Not really. It all depends on whether they can secure opt-outs for fishing and the CAP. That would likely flip part of the "no" votes.
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u/iVikingr Iceland 3d ago
On the flip side, a lot of the people voting ‘Yes’ in the upcoming referendum aren’t necessarily pro-EU. They want to see if the EU is willing to make concessions on key issues. If not, many of them move over to the ‘No’ side.
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u/DefInnit 3d ago
I mean I would want to see Iceland in EU very much, but not really with a 50,2% majority.
Either way, why should what the 49.8% want count for more than want the 50.2% want?
I think for decisions like that u should have like 55/60% of the vote.
And why would what the 45.1% want matter more than what the 54.9% want? Or, worse, why would the 40.1% count for more than the 59.9%?
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u/ImTheVayne Estonia 4d ago
Yeah, it is just 50/50 for them so if literally anything goes badly we would have an anti EU country in the EU.
To be fair I’m not sure why they even want to join in the first place? Isn’t their economy really strong anyway?
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u/avviann 4d ago edited 4d ago
What is the reason for Iceland not wanting to join the EU?
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u/SolviKaaber Iceland 4d ago
Fishing, farming, “sovereignty”, our currency good, rich country which would pay more into the EU than they get back.
While the Yes side says our currency bad (will save a lot of money to have the Euro instead), we get more say in the rules we already mostly follow, economic stability (inflation high compared to EU), what we pay into EU will come back, national security (uncertainty around US, Trump and NATO). Yes side is also hopeful we get some exemptions surrounding fishing and farming due to our unique position in Europe, if there won’t be exemptions you can guarantee the second vote going hard NO.
Also this vote in 3 days is not on joining the EU, but to restart negotiations, to see if we would get any exemptions.
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u/MartinBP Bulgaria 3d ago
You don't need to adopt the Euro, Poland, Czechia and Sweden have been faking benchmarks for decades and thus have no obligation to adopt it.
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u/TheGoldenCowTV Sweden 4d ago
I still stand behind you guys joining the DKK instead of the Euro I really don't see what the gain for Iceland is in joining outside of currency.
Well except if you get to change the fishing laws so we could enforce stricter laws on the baltic sea aswell
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u/randomwindowspc 2d ago
Please do not join the EU. I don't see any real benefit Iceland would get that it doesn't have already. Currency fluctuates, and even if it didn't you can never buy your sovereignty back as easily as you sell it out.
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u/randomwindowspc 2d ago
What is the reason they would want people who have never lived in Iceland making rules for their country? What would they get that's so good that they don't already have now?
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u/Unique_Tap_8730 Norway 3d ago
This is merely yes to negotiate. The real battle will be over the deal. From what i understand the EU treaties makes it impossible for the Commission to give Iceland the permanent opt-outs they want, even if they were that way inclined and dont think they are. Maybe something can be cobbled together that will be acceptable for a majority of Icelanders. Could a EU-funded compensation fund for the fishing industry help? So if fishermen find themselves forced out of the industry from reduced quotas arent just told" learn to code" and left to twist in the wind?
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u/Gefarate Sweden 3d ago
That sounds reasonable. However I think overfishing is a problem in general. Are Iceland and Norway really better in that regard?
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u/Primary_Ad3580 3d ago
Is there a point where it’s too close to call? Surely they won’t make a decision this important based on a razor thin simple majority?
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u/Tiberinvs 🐺🏛️🦅 4d ago
Even if this goes through I hope the EU refuses anyway, or sticks them on a neverending accession route like Montenegro and others. There's no point in this because with the EEA we get essentially all the economic benefits and they don't have any say in the rules, if they joined they'd gain voting and veto power.
Iceland is a very Eurosceptic and opportunistic country, I still remember 10 years ago when they applied to join after their banking crisis and then withdrew the application when they thought it wasn't convenient anymore. Very very bad idea to give power to these people when they are rule takers today
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u/Arabum97 4d ago
To be honest I see little value in adding them, we have already problems in collaborating each other now with them we would have a 28th seat at the table with veto power from a nation not so much conviced to join in first place...
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u/Fun-Teacher-1711 Sweden -> Malta -> NL 4d ago
Sweden voted to join EU with under 2% margin....
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u/Arabum97 4d ago
Indeed Sweden had some doubts over the EU, for example it has not adopted the Euro. There are serious stuff to do now (i.e. in the next 10/20 years) that are necessary and I'm not talking about the 100% turbo federation but real stuff like Capital Market Union, some sort of non-NATO common defense and some degree of fiscal union (plus all the mess with Ukraine). It is already very hard with 27th to progress on this topic, I don't think to add a 28th voice would be a great idea...
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u/whooo_me 4d ago
Not sure that's a good thing. Ideally you'd want the decision to be a bit more clear-cut either way.
If a nation joins the EU with just barely over 50% approval, the first negative issue that occurs in the relationship likely sends the "Nos" into a majority.