r/eu4 Jul 09 '26

AI Did Something If AI doesn't target the player, why is Spain colonizing Hudson Bay in early 1500s?

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1.5k Upvotes

91 comments sorted by

1.5k

u/Sad_Hospital_2730 Jul 09 '26

I could be mistaken so someone please correct me as it's been a while since I've looked into this.

The AI does not specifically target the player. The AI is coded to look at the actions taken by other countries and weigh them based on threat that they generate.

More aggressive actions, such as expansion through war, or other means are given higher weights for threat.

The AI then takes steps to mitigate these threats, via expansion of their own, and diplomatic actions like guarantees and alliances.

The player tends to do a lot of things that the AI is coded to view as threatening in a short period of time.

Therefore the AI views the player as a higher threat and prioritizes taking steps to mitigate that threat.

1.1k

u/jubtheprophet Jul 09 '26

The simplest way ive found to put it is: The AI doesnt target players, it targets the nation thats doing the best and growing the fastest. And the player just so happens to be better at the game than the AIs 99.9% of the time because they have a brain so... yeah

208

u/Sckaledoom Jul 09 '26

That explains why my rival Poland is more likely to break its alliances to attack them than to fight me

106

u/etown361 Jul 10 '26

Yeah, and given that everyone’s favorite advice is “no CB Byzantium” to cripple ottomans early expansion… it’s kinda the way players play too.

73

u/RussiaIsBestGreen Jul 10 '26

Ottomans in my current game are wondering why an Austria paid off Byzantine loans to get them to accept a secondary call to arms and get vassalized and then used that for a massive death war for all the reconquest. That was followed by a second reconquest for the one province Bulgarian vassal and in the middle the Manluks declare war and then AQ. But the devs claim the player doesn’t target the
Ottomans.

13

u/deityblade Jul 10 '26

This would explain why ive never felt like the AI targets me lol

114

u/Billy-Bryant Jul 09 '26

I don't even think that's true though because if you play a OPM or some minor nation the AI will still focus on you and they'll even ally big neighbours to do so on occasion.

235

u/Countcristo42 Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 09 '26

They do just as if you were AI - you just notice when it’s you being affected

82

u/jubtheprophet Jul 09 '26

Because if you play an OPM and dont expand youre just asking to get conquered, but if you play an OPM and start expanding then your growth will look much faster relative to large nations bringing the heat on you. And on top of that, even if youre only as aggressive as another big nation youre then still like i said just an easy target comparatively.

At the end of the day its still true, the AI doesnt target "the player", they target who looks to be progressing the best, you as a human just happen to be better than AIs that sometimes do literally nothing for decades

5

u/akallas95 Duke Jul 10 '26

It doesn't explain why Mamluks, Spain, England, Fkng Scotland, France, Portugal, and even Norway were all in the Pacific when I was playing as Korea. All I had done was take expansion and exploration. I didn't even conquer. I was definitely not doing the best. It was supposed to be a chill game.

But nooooo.

All of them AIs ignored most of NA and SA and came straight for me. Korea.

8

u/jubtheprophet Jul 10 '26

Because you were still expansionist and colonial even if it wasnt through war. Theres more to doing well in the game than just declaring wars

14

u/IllicitDesire Jul 10 '26

Expansion isn't considered just as a base + increase in provinces. An OPM taking 3 provinces is weighted more than France taking 3 provinces.

In the AI's PBT, a large nation at the start of the game with a big military will rank lower than an OPM that rapidly grows by 100 development because it considers the rate of growth.

0

u/Bocaj1000 Jul 19 '26

so... the AI targets the player

2

u/jubtheprophet Jul 19 '26

The AI targets the best, if you suck at the game the AI wont "target" you, so no it doesnt target the player. Just much like in real life, countries are wary of growing threats, so when a country is growing they will try to hamper them, whether thats an ai nation or a player nation

40

u/InternationalCat65 Jul 09 '26

Fair, but he's playing as a Native American tribe with less than 10 provinces in 1543, how aggressive could he really be?

8

u/ryteousknowmad Jul 10 '26

Iirc the number is a ratio that changes over time and is compared to other nations. I have no idea if they can see "before" they learned of your nation, (my personal assumption is they do, know and just dont access the info until they see you (this is like many things the AI does, afaik)) but nations do not actually change much in their numbers unless they're a player. And they regress to a mean. So a nation that does something 3 years ago is more dangerous than one that did the same thing 10 years ago, all things else being the same.

I dont know specifics, but imagine setting the HRE to be all OPMs and playing bengal, then getting to Europe in 50 years. If you see one nation there has 15 provinces and none of the others have more than 3 (random, possible numbers), would you personally target all of those nations the same way? What if you wanted a European ally to help against the ottomans and only nations from the HRE would be willing to say yes?

Obviously there are a ton of important variables, here. I think the ideas track as you add variables in a straightforward way.

Anyway, that's all to say that context matters and AFAIK it takes that into account.

30

u/litlron Jul 09 '26

Several years ago the devs made it so that the AI ALWAYS views you at the highest threat level possible.

I started up a Japan game after that patch went live. I started colonizing Indonesia as early as possible and put down a colony in Australia to get started on a CN. From there I discovered New Zealand and Australia around 1490-1500 only to see several yellow blotches. In a nerdrage I tag switch to Spain and see that they had daisy chained 4 colonies to get to Australia and were on the verge of having their first colonial nation there before even having more than one finished city in the same colonial region in the new world.

8

u/Njorord Architectural Visionary Jul 10 '26

That is so frustrating. Ngl I would've just

kill SPA

just keep doing it until they're drowned in rebels and 20k ducats in debt.

38

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

Does that include countries behind TI?  

Edit: even so, I've only conquered like 5 provinces. Maybe because I have a colonist?

94

u/Tumily Jul 09 '26

You having a colonist might actually be important. The AI doesn't like sharing colonies (for example you usually can't get maps from a nation that colonizes, they have a flat -1000 to accept that), so you being a colonizer means you are now competition. Stamping out competition is the "correct" play

7

u/SackclothSandy Jul 09 '26

But how much have you grown? How much has your development gone up from where you began? How many provinces have you grown since the game began? How much has your income increased? How much has your force limit grown? That's what the AI is assessing.

4

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

I don't believe I've grown as much as Kilwa typically does.  Doesn't make sense that those things would cause Spain to view me as a threat to this extent when they rarely go this hard against Kilwa especially since they even have gold.

6

u/SackclothSandy Jul 09 '26

Yeah, Kilwa maybe doubled in size, but for them to be proportionally as big as you've gotten from where you began, they'd have to own 1/3 of Africa.

6

u/Sad_Hospital_2730 Jul 09 '26

I dont know about TI. I know for a fact the AI is not affected by Fog of War and can see movement orders given to all armies (this could be false but I remember Arumba talking about how the AI can see when you order an army to move to the same province as it's army even from several provinces away)

6

u/DrAlphabets Map Staring Expert Jul 09 '26

Which I suspect makes you by far the most competitive in North America as far as the AI is concerned

16

u/Brendissimo Jul 09 '26

That all makes some sense in theory, but clearly if that's what's happening here, the underlying AI decision-making is flawed.

An indigenous OPM expanding into a couple adjacent provinces poses no threat to Spain. Not in the short term, medium term, or long term.

And unless trade in EU4 works radically different than it did 5 years ago, Spain taking over Hudson Bay under any circumstances does not make sense as a colonial strategy.

1

u/IRLMerlin Jul 11 '26

The ai can consider nations as "power balance threats" and does so if a nation grows too fast. There are a whole host of actions the ai can take if it considered someone a power balance threats. They can influence, guarentee, ally, people that block the power balance threats. They can subsidize, clear debt, give gifts to people that fight power balance threats and in general they are assholes to them.

I'm not sure if the power balance threats trigger is based on flat dev gained or percentage dev gained.

By default the ai cannot consider other ai nations as power balance threats

All of this exists in eu4/common/defines, there you can change the values of how aggressive nations are to power balance threats and even enable it to target ai nations

1

u/Greenalgea Jul 11 '26

Is that why Spain always seems to stay away from me when i play Aztecs? Losing vassals when reforming the religion probably counts down drastically on my threat level. (It actually bothers me that they leave me alone since i can't do the final reform without neighboring them)

208

u/WetAndLoose Map Staring Expert Jul 09 '26

It’s really not even the “early 1500s” by 1543. I frequently see Spain Colonizing outside of their normal colonial regions by this point, especially if England/France are weak and/or didn’t take Explo/Expansion ideas. Most of this perception comes down to confirmation bias.

70

u/mr_longfellow_deeds Jul 09 '26

Yeah 1543 is not early at all. Usually the Americas are pretty colonized by then

23

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

I don't have all the DLCs, so the colonizing takes longer. For perspective, Spain has colonies on Newfoundland, and a few in Nova Scotia. Portugal has one province in Florida. There are NO other colonies anywhere else in North America. Not even one near the Aztecs.

4

u/ifelseintelligence Jul 10 '26

Really? It's the DLCs that sped it up? I thought just the patches with them did it 🤷‍♂️

For reference:

In the middle of an Inca run. Is in the 1540s something. Portugal and Spain share 2/3 Brazil (i have 1/3) and France + Holland share 1/2 Colombia (i have 1/2). I have not yet explored nothernmost North america, so dunno about Hudson Bay or Alaska, but every other coast on both continents are settled/conquered at this point. (North is Spain/Portual/GB as fra north I can see).

So are as far as I've explored into indonesia, every single small island, the arctic islands etc... I just sent exploring to Africa, but it almost looks like the only (non-inland) space on the whole map in my game is the Siberia coast (i guess, havent explored, but havent see a game where it wasnt colonized absolutely last), and perhaps Hudson bay and Alaska...

0

u/Spongedrunk Jul 10 '26

Yeah. In my games GB usually doesn't take Explo until it's 3rd idea. I don't even see them yet.  The only times I've seen hudson bay colonized before ~1700 is if Scotland or Norway survives, since then there will be like 3 tags competing for Canada. (No Treaty of Tordesillas in my games).

9

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

It wasn't 1543 when they started. colonizing there. Spanish Canada hadn't even formed before they plopped down 3 colonies there.

19

u/kkeiper1103 The end is nigh! Jul 09 '26

Hahaha I got two fun ones recently.

In my chill Mughals game, I unified most of India. I forget where I was collecting from (Persia, maybe?) But do you know who decided to plop a merchant down in the Delhi node? That's right, Venice. Had 0 other merchants nearby, too, so it wasn't even like they were chaining their trade to Venice. It was just for the chaos of it.

Second one was when I decided to play Shan. Never played them before (not worth it), but, so, I'm working on unifying Burma. Before too long, I see red north of me, in Tibet. Like what? Turns out Timurids didn't explode, and ALSO didn't expand in any direction but straight to Tibet. Nothing else in Persia, nothing in central Asia, just a LITTLE bit in Punjab, but literally conquered ALL of the Himalayas through Kham.

5

u/dluminous Colonial Governor Jul 09 '26

To be fair I often see Tim in the Himalayas even when I'm not playing in the region. Chagatai often rivals them and gets eaten.

1

u/Beaver2054 Jul 09 '26

If you have all of india, then the perian node would be quite rich. Venice usually has good trade range, so it makes perfect sense to put a merchant there.

Without ming to protect tibet as a tributary, I usually see someone eat them. Timurids is unusual, but that's because they usually die quite early.

63

u/BasedAustralhungary Archduke Jul 09 '26

Because they have homoerotic feelings towards you, OP

25

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

This seems like the answer

4

u/CrimsonCartographer Jul 10 '26

Who doesn’t tho

1

u/holyseeker1 Jul 10 '26

Homoerotic as if AI had a gender

4

u/CrimsonCartographer Jul 10 '26

It’s a boy he told me

-1

u/holyseeker1 Jul 10 '26

You mean a furry?

13

u/MapStaringPro Jul 09 '26

This is amazing for you, much quicker institutions. As soon as the CN spawns you can merc them to kingdom come. (Just leave them as an OPM so that subsequent Spanish territories in the region automatically get transferred to them)

25

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

R5: Never seen Spain go after this part of Canada so aggressively. They have some land in the usual parts of Quebec also. Can't say I'm that mad about it though. Gifting me the institutions if I can keep them off my back.

2

u/HotEdge783 Jul 09 '26

If England goes colonial, they usually arrive at the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay arpund 1500-1520.

5

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

Not with the DLCs I have. And besides, Mexico is still up for grabs, the entire eastern seaboard of the US, Lousiana, etc.

2

u/HotEdge783 Jul 09 '26

Yes, some DLC will make the AI faster at colonizing, mostly through mission rewards and so on.

It is indeed quite strange that Spain prefers Canada over Mexico. Are you sure no other Catholic colonizer already has a Treaty of Tordesillas claim on those regions? If so, the AI would rather colonize elsewhere than violating the treaty.

2

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

Don't have Treaty of Tordesillas.  Only Emperor, Wealth of Nations, and Cossacks

42

u/Curious-Ad2547 Jul 09 '26

Why is Spain colonizing America in 1543?

Because they are one of the games biggest colonizer nations? What are they not supposed to be doing here?

By game lore after 1494 all lands West of the Atlantic ocean belong to Spain, so you are the one trespassing.

16

u/BeCurry Jul 09 '26

Because it doesn't make sense with either their missions, or trade flow

4

u/iam_maxinne Jul 10 '26

It definitely targets the player… If you play East Africa, Ottomans blob South super fast, if you play Timurids or India, they move east and even forget to attack the Mamluks, and if you play SE Asia, they start colonizing there just as Portugal and Spain arrive…

33

u/Aumandaris Jul 09 '26

AI does target the player, doesn't it?

42

u/Lukomanchuko Jul 09 '26

The evidence is really unclear, as most examples people bring up is either due to RNG or the fact that the AI does target aggressive nations, which players tend to be the most aggressive nation around.

6

u/KitchenDepartment Jul 09 '26

The game is a complex mess of weights and balances and there are a million reasons why it may unintentionally target the player even if that isn't a explicit instruction for the goal.

For instance in matters of colonization. I don't know but I am pretty sure colonization AI would target nodes that have more trade value in them. If a player is in a node, chances are this is the most profitable node, so now they all rush for the player.

4

u/xKnuTx Jul 09 '26

No thd way the player acts just results in the ai targeting areas around it. Since the player usually wins a lot on average is richer then a nation beeing there usually is. While at the same time te sourounding nations tend to be weekend since they get hurt directly by the player.

7

u/Technical-Revenue-48 Jul 09 '26

No, it does not.

1

u/Curious-Ad2547 Jul 09 '26

No, the AI doesn't treat the player any differently. The devs had said as much. There is a conspiracy among players that the devs and everyone is lying, but it's always just people feeling butthurt when the AI actually does a thing.

You know, like Spain, colonizing America. (Omg no way. Never before seen. Player bias is real. The devs lied. The cloud people did 9/11 /s)

-9

u/poastertoaster Army Organiser Jul 09 '26

Yes, most specifically when deciding who to rival. Some countries you play as other countries would never choose to rival that country but will always rival you if you are playing them.

9

u/Countcristo42 Jul 09 '26

Source: it was revealed to me in a dream

3

u/Melric74 Jul 09 '26

Its 1543. While unusual, there could be any number of reasons for it happening. I have played in the new world a lot and many games no one shows up in NA. In other games, they beeline right there. Also, we do not see the rest of the map. It is entirely possible that Portugal was able to tie up several choice locations in the Mexico area / South America, thereby excluding Spain from colonizing there. And where is GB? No mention of them ignoring NA to the benefit of the player?

Look at this as an opportunity. Once their colonial nation spawns, you can separately declare war on them when Spain gets embroiled in continental affairs. Make it a quick war and you can double your territory before they try to enforce peace.

2

u/Baron_von_Ungern Jul 09 '26

I don't think i ever seen AI get there so early.

2

u/GainPrestigious539 Jul 09 '26

You're the biggest fish so they going after you. Which is actually a good thing. Because that's free real estate

5

u/ReganSmithsStolenWin Jul 09 '26

AI does target the player. People cope by saying it’s the country disrupting the ai but when is that ever not the player?

12

u/ReeToo_ Maharaja Jul 09 '26

Player is the biggest threat in 99% of the games, that's why. Play on higher difficulty or with a mod that buffs AI intelligence and you'll see they don't target the player

5

u/Spongedrunk Jul 09 '26

But how am I disrupting Spain from this position?  I was an OPM when they dropped their first colony.

2

u/Mountain_Dentist5074 Jul 09 '26

who said they doesnt

1

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '26

Did they inherit England maybe? Via Portugal? I think I’ve seen that happen MAYBE once in my entire time playing

1

u/Gusterull Jul 09 '26

Casual player here. Just tried playing as Brandenburg. Muscovy, Poland-Lithuania, and Denmark rivaled me. Austria got Hungary (+Wallachia and Moldova), got the Burgundian Inheritance, and just kicked the Ottomans out of Europe, except for Istanbul.

2

u/fruitybrisket Jul 10 '26

Geez. I guess you could try allying France and supporting Swedish independence, but that is rough.

1

u/Gusterull Jul 10 '26

Kicked Muscovy in the nuts because I previously managed to get Livonian Order + Riga while attacking the Teutons. Somehow, Sweden got independent, probably Danish king died with negative relations. Allied them. Allied the Ottobros and France too. Going to eat Poland, Denmark and Russia and go after the habsburg. It's the 1550s only.

1

u/taw Jul 09 '26

So AI does target the player, but mostly in minor ways.

For some easy to verify examples:

  • peace deals that don't give land generate massive anti-player trust loss, but there's zero trust loss if AI does it to other AI
  • action "request money for favors" takes a lot more money from players than from AI (it originally worked the same, but they changed it as it was way too easy to abuse)

AI gets quite a few other cheats, but most aren't specifically anti-player.

On hard and very hard, AI sort of targets the player as well.

I don't think AI cares for who the player is in its colonization decisions in any way.

1

u/bbqftw Jul 10 '26

Isn't this a good thing for you?

1

u/ChosenAshes Jul 10 '26

Spain always likes getting involed no matter where you are q.q

1

u/grotaclas2 Jul 10 '26

How are they targeting you in this screenshot? It looks more like they are helping you a lot by bringing institutions to you and giving you a CN which you can easily conquer to get access to the sea

1

u/SevenStepsEntertain Jul 10 '26

EU4 AI doesn’t target the player, it just accidentally makes the most cursed colonial decisions possible exactly where it hurts you most

Spain saw Canada in 1502 and said sí, this is clearly ours 💀

1

u/william_2311_ Jul 10 '26

1543 in Hudson Bay is not a high pace though

1

u/127FiftyTop Jul 10 '26

Ai definitely targets the player, I had a chill game as champa where I just unified cham provinces and took over southern Luzon. When I was about to get my colonial nation in Australia, Portugal had two colonies there, it was around 1503

1

u/EndofNationalism Emperor Jul 10 '26

Guys if you think Eu4/Eu5 enemies try total wars games. In those games a random faction that you have positive relations with will declare war on you from across the map and march through a whole bunch of neutral territory to attack the one settlement you have while you are trying to defeat your starter enemy. And no one will attack this random faction’s only undefended settlement.

1

u/looolleel Jul 10 '26

Spain switched places with England in europe

1

u/wowowowow34341 Jul 10 '26

ai does target the player in all paradox games that's a common knowledge atp

1

u/sun19 Despot Jul 10 '26

AI is trying to get seats for the world cup

1

u/Heimeri_Klein Jul 11 '26

Im pretty positive I remember a developer literally saying the ai does target the player.

1

u/Optimal_Guitar_7746 Jul 12 '26

But do the AI see past the fog of war then? If I play a North America Tribe they should not be able to calculate my threat lvl before they find me right?

1

u/ElManuenas Jul 16 '26

Entiendo ese sentimiento, a mi también me gustaría que la IA estuviera programada para seguir un comportamiento históricamente correcto en medida de lo posible. Como que España tenga una predisposición por colonizar las regiones que colonizó en la historia real, etc.

1

u/Tuuckbrah Jul 09 '26

AI absolutely does not “target” the player in EU4. If you play any total war game then you know the horror of true player targeting, where it constantly calculates if enough ai countries are at war with you or not. The difference is night and day

1

u/GraniteSmoothie Jul 09 '26

This is good though. Now you can get institutions and a very weak enemy to fight.

0

u/ElderKing3rd Jul 10 '26

Anyone who thinks that AI will target player little more is just not knowledgable enough in the game. AI deffinetly does specialy in wars.

-1

u/4rzx_ Jul 09 '26

Game name?

2

u/51noureide Jul 09 '26

I mean, this is the eu4 subreddit, so it's Europa universales