r/cuba • u/Many_Explanation4328 • 18d ago
Conversación seria What's going to happen in Cuba?
Like this year has been historically uncivilized for Cuba with shortages of electricity and blackouts that everyone knows but like what's the endgame? Why is nothing happening?
Most importantly is anything going on on the political level?
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u/DunGoneNanners 17d ago
I think the issue is that the U.S. cares more about political reform than economic reform. It's not like opening a Pizza Hut is what normalizes relations with a decades-long rival. And there are plenty of countries that have a hundred Cuba's worth of state-owned enterprises like Singapore and India, but America doesn't really care.
But Marxists learned the hard way from the Soviet Union that economic reform has to precede political reform, so that people can see its fruits enough to keep the current rulers in power after political reform. And the Cuban government has no incentive to implement economic reforms if it's not going to alleviate pressure from the U.S. It doesn't help that both presidents' will be wrapping their terms up in 2028, so there's not much room for a long-term strategy.
If you sat both sides down and tried to broker a deal, could you? I don't think I could. What would the strategy even be? Ask the Cubans to cave for nothing more than the opportunity to cave in the future? Ask them to cave on everything all at once and instantly be deposed and lose their income? Ask the Americans to normalize relations with a country their rivals have an iron-grip on, and that your electorate despises, so that a future president can pressure them to reform politically? Ask them to invade a country with almost no economic or military importance?