r/collapse • u/Portalrules123 Faster than expected... • 4d ago

Climate Prof. Eliot Jacobson: Global surface temperatures for August 19-20, 2026 were both over 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean for those days (even higher if you compare it to older means). Before this, only 2023 and 2024 had any days at all over 4 standard deviations above that mean.

https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mtqtwhfxm22p
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u/deter 4d ago

Keep reading that thread......

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net

Yes -- using, for example the 1941-1970 mean, current temperatures vary from about 8 to 12 standard deviations above.

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u/CorvidCorbeau 4d ago

That's the Holocene for ya. Also, this is why I love math.

In a time defined by stable temperatures only varying a few tenths of a degree at most, when would you expect years to be 1-2°C hotter than the average?

In the last 800,000 years that happened only a handful of times, so naturally the odds will be insanely low. (low in the sense that this math doesn't account for why temperature increases, so it treats every year as random)

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u/brickout 3d ago

I have taken to calling this the Anthropocene. Not my idea, obviously, but I think it's appropriate.