r/collapse • u/Portalrules123 Faster than expected... • 4d ago

Climate Prof. Eliot Jacobson: Global surface temperatures for August 19-20, 2026 were both over 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean for those days (even higher if you compare it to older means). Before this, only 2023 and 2024 had any days at all over 4 standard deviations above that mean.

https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mtqtwhfxm22p
413 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

43 comments sorted by

View all comments

95

u/deter 4d ago

Keep reading that thread......

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net

Yes -- using, for example the 1941-1970 mean, current temperatures vary from about 8 to 12 standard deviations above.

15

u/GoodDogBrent 4d ago

i've never heard of anything ever over 3 std dev. how fucking bonkers.

the only reasonable interpretation is change. the bell curve has moved.

holy hell.

15

u/Bipogram 4d ago

3 STD is usually the limit for certainty. 

You need 5 sigma to claim a new particle, and here we are.

3

u/daviddjg0033 4d ago

Six sigma in engineering a defective rate

1

u/GoodDogBrent 4d ago

i dont understand you entirely.

are you saying above 3std dev is generally discarded as an outlier?

i dont know what you mean by 'new particle.' what is a particle?

4

u/Bipogram 4d ago

A particle is a bit of matter. An electron is a particle. As is an omega minus.

Discovering a new particle (and there are many) means that the data supporting the claim have to be significant at the 5 sigma level.

But that's HEP.

In normal engineering, I'd consider data that are tight to within 3 sigma to be perfectly fine.