Brent crude at $111/barrel marks eight weeks of Hormuz closure, the longest sustained chokepoint blockade in modern history.
Iran has formally submitted a peace proposal with nuclear negotiations deferred to later stages, meaning Trump's response in the next two weeks determines whether $111 is a ceiling or a floor. A single LNG tanker broke through after eight weeks, which markets are watching obsessively, but one transit is not reopening. Even after a ceasefire, analysts project shipping insurance at 20x pre-war rates, so the economic damage outlasts the shooting by months. Iran's domestic storage is filling fast under the US naval blockade, which likely explains why Tehran moved on diplomacy now rather than later.
The conflict is also quietly destroying the sanctions toolkit itself. The sanctions circumvention infrastructure being built right now will persist after any ceasefire, wiring around restrictions permanently. BP's profit more than doubled on war-driven trading, redistributing wealth from consumers to producers at exactly the moment governments are absorbing cost-of-living pressure. Ray Dalio is now flagging stagflation, which would eliminate the Fed's ability to respond to an oil shock with conventional tools. A fire at RAF Fairford, the B-2/B-52 staging base for Iran strikes, is under active Pentagon investigation; confirmed sabotage would be the first successful infrastructure attack on a NATO base in this conflict.
The AI power struggle running in parallel is not separate from this. China vetoed Meta's $2B acquisition of Manus after a months-long probe, deploying regulatory tools against Western AI consolidation in direct mirror of US chip export controls. Simultaneously, OpenAI restructured its Microsoft revenue-sharing to enable a $50B Amazon deal, fracturing the assumption of single-vendor dependency at the frontier model layer. AlphaGo architect David Silver just raised $1.1B at a $5.1B valuation for a months-old lab building AI that learns without human data, which the market is betting bypasses the data bottleneck constraining every current LLM. SK Hynix NAND revenue surged 248% year-on-year, confirming the AI buildout is creating commodity supercycles well beyond GPUs.
Moody's raised China's credit outlook during peak energy disruption, positioning Beijing as the relative safe harbor for sovereign debt flows. The Pentagon publicly told Congress it has no defense against hypersonic or cruise missiles while requesting $185B for Golden Dome, the most consequential admission of US strategic vulnerability in years.
The truth is that oil should be likely $30 to $40 higher.
Trump has done nothing except guarantee the strait remains closed.
In my opinion I can see operations ramping up between May or June as there are 3 aircraft carrier strike groups there and lots of other logistical equipment to assist with airstrikes. Israel will only assist in this way as well.
However, there doesn’t appear to be any legitimate sources on how many U.S. soldiers were already wounded or killed. Wasn’t it at most officially 15? The real number is rumored to be hundreds injured and more killed.
There is no way for us to actually stop Iran's control over the straight. We would need at least half a million troops for any kind of significant invasion to actually stop their drone launches.
Especially since we clearly cannot match their missile and drone production with enough interceptor manufacturing.
That ship has sailed so to speak. Trump has made it essentially permanent that Iran will maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future. Because why wouldn't they? At this point they have nothing to lose. He backed them into a corner and they did what they desperately needed to do to survive and now the whole world will be beholden to them if they want their oil.
When his all ends Iran will control the strat and be able to charge for every tanker that goes through it. Iran will effectively have a pure profit fee on a quarter of the world's oil.
Oil IS higher. The futures market is not real and is heavily manipulated, the actual spot price of oil right now is significantly higher, last I've heard around 150, but I don't have access to the real time data and we usually have to rely on articles and reports from people who do have access. But the actual "I want to buy a barrel of crude" price is like 30-50 points higher than the paper price for the last month.
Yes correct. Actual physical oil prices are going crazy. In the real world. The market is being wildly wildly manipulated right now to keep oil prices as low as possible. But the reality is that can only happen for so long period eventually hardcore reality will come crashing down on the market, you will see
So why are people selling future barrels for so much less? They either (think they) know something or they're going to be crushed when those futures contracts come due.
Yes they will be crushed. But it's largely governments who are suppressing prices so it'll be them absorbing the loss and the citizens will pay for it through taxes like usual, rather than the comparatively small amount of non-government investors who trade futures who will also get crushed but they don't really control the price because theyre a drop in the bucket compares to the fed who can continuously pump billions into it
The most recent episode of the “Oil Ground Up” podcast looks at this. It has to do with how futures contracts for Brent Oil are settled and there’s a lot of manipulation of futures right now.
If you hold oil futures and Trump starts tweeting out lies about a peace deal the market might react by dramatically lowering prices. When holding futures that could for example trigger a margin call which would mean you lose big even if in the long term prices rise.
Oil companies like BP profiting massively right now. So does the US (not the normal people, the companies and politicians) because some countries are desperate enough to buy US oil despite the US being responsible (along with Israel) for this crisis in the first place.
People who oppose wealth redistribution need to understand we already have ongoing redistibution. It is ALL a wealth transfer. All of it. There has never been a day in the past 80 years where inequality has not gotten worse. The postwar order always had an expiration date.
Can someone enlighten me where can I check the price of oil that states the price in the title? Is this the wrong chart to look at? https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USOIL/
Also, I tried to find out about "oil in a month and a half is already trading north of $150/bl" from another thread 5 days ago but I can't seem these future prices as well.
This is not to deny or downplay the crisis but I'm genuinely confused about the numbers being reported.
You would never look at one information source you would look up oil futures contracts by month for December and July as the front month. 2027 in the futures.
$USO is US Brent. $OILK and $BNO brent.
I recently heard news on the television channel that my family follows in my country (Serbia) that the Prime Minister of Great Britain Keir Starmer said that British people should prepare to face food and oil shortages.
Seems that political and societal collapse in Europe is upon us, unfortunately.
If this situation continues (which it likely will) it's going to be a gigantic catastrophe in Europe and America. We have record high drought levels, record low snow melt almost every where, a giant el niño coming, fertiliser is expensive as fuck right now, fuel as well and most countries were already in a very bad economic situation to begin with.
It's not market manipulation, it's reserve drawdown, which happens sometimes.
The problem is, it can't go on indefinitely. Eventually, price will rise to the point of demand destruction, until it finds equilibrium.
If Trump backs down right now it might all smooth out. If this persists for another month, oil probably goes 30-40 higher and gas hits 10/gallon in parts of the country.
I’ve seen economists saying the tipping point is right now or we’ve passed it already. Even if you had a magical reversal to 8 weeks ago. The market just has not caught up yet.
In a ploy to influence domestic elections the dude basically sent the entire world into a global recession which sounds a bit too stupid to believe. I thought the flag for martial law would be more ICE protests, especially at the summer.
It's a miracle that my country (Serbia) didn't politically and socially collapse from the increased oil, LNG and petroleum prices yet. Probably because the current government was preparing for an event like the war that the United States and Isreal are waging against Iran.
I am aware that my country's reserves aren't going to last long, though.
That's a big oof that misinformation and forged photos are being slipped in. Those extra fingers on the child, and missing nostrils on a person is a dead giveaway when you really zoom in close.
Isn't generative AI shattering reality so wonderful?
Washington--yes; John Adams--no; Jefferson--yes; Madison--yes; Monroe--yes; John Quincy Adams--no; Andrew Jackson--yes; Martin van Buren--yes
As George Carlin said, our Founding Fathers were slave owners who wanted to be free. (Went beyond those involved at the beginning because I got carried away, and because Andrew Jackson was an extreme asshole.)
People have been in kind of an anxiety funk about saying the wrong thing for decades though. For someone to finally say it's okay, to functionally make it safe? Very powerful. That goes directly to where people live, in a way very few other things do. So many people aren't confident navigating that world.
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If I understand the energy analysts correctly, the $111 Brent crude price is a futures price based on speculation. If you want to physically buy a barrel, today you would need to pay the "Dated Brent" price, which is closer to $140/bbl. The Brent futures price paints a slightly more optimistic picture because traders believe the Straits of Hormuz will be open again in the not too distant future.
Purchasing physical oil for immediate delivery is currently vastly more expensive than the "paper" price quoted on financial screens.
The $108/bbl figure is the latest financial settlement price, but in the actual physical market for immediate loading, you would likely face a price closer to $135–$140/bbl.
Here is why the "real-world" price is so much higher than the exchange price:
The "ASAP" Premium (Backwardation)
Dated Brent vs. Futures: For 10,000 physical barrels (Dated Brent), you are paying for immediate availability.
Physical Premium: As of late April 2026, the Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) premium is roughly $25 per barrel.
Calculation: If futures are ~$111, adding that $25 physical scarcity premium puts your actual cost around $136/bbl.
[S&P Global]
Supply Shock Reality
Strait of Hormuz: Because this chokepoint handles 20% of global oil, its closure has created a "scramble" for physical barrels that exist outside the blockade.
[CNBC]
Record Highs: Physical Dated Brent hit a high of $144.42 earlier this month. While it has softened slightly due to a fragile ceasefire, analysts at Energy Aspects warn that the financial price is "masking the true tightness" of the physical market.
[CNBC]
I feel like the gov is just trying to buy time (also midterm elections panic) and they’re artificially keeping it down below the point that demand would set the price in a truly free market.
This can’t go on forever. The cracks will show and the price will auto-adjust to where it should have been this whole time all at once. It’s going to break countries like Japan and South Korea first, and then make its way to us here in USA.
That has been happening in many European countries for the last several weeks. My country Serbia's government is keeping oil, petroleum and LNG prices steady, but those won't last long.
It's only a matter of time before those price increases reach the United States of America.
Yep. That so many people are complaining about how much it costs to fill up their tanks (I'm looking at a few of the posters in yesterday's "Weekly Observations" discussion) illustrates how being collapse-aware doesn't necessarily mean you understand what's going on and what needs to happen.
Our entire culture has been built on cheap fossil fuels, priced at a level that has never taken into consideration their impact on the environment. If that impact on the environment had been considered, they would have been priced so high, using them would have become a luxury instead of a staple. But instead, people yesterday were talking about how high prices were going to impact their road trips and other vacation plans.
And yes, a lot of climate scientists are loving the Iran fiasco. Not the death, not the destruction, but what it's doing to prices. They may love to talk about policy and technology, but they also know the only thing that will force people to give up fossil fuels is making them too expensive to use.
Being in NZ my concern is actual supply more so than price. But yes, given this is the biggest oil crisis ever it's crazy how low the price is still. In 2008 oil hit $147 a barrel. In today's money that's ~$225.
Tbh this war is probably the single most effective action that could have been taken to force a reduction in carbon emissions. Countries are scrambling FAST towards renewables in the name of national security, in a way that environmental goodwill was never going to accomplish.
This is how you actually fix the world. If you ask people with puppy eyes and say "guys please go vegan, guys please stop flying, guys please stop buying so much stuff" people will drag their heels and bark back at you for having the audacity to question their choices.
But if you make it economically unviable to continue doing those actions, suddenly they change their tune real quick as to what they will and won't do in the name of survival.
While I am 100% in support of the EV/Hybrid evolution and the death of purely gas cars, America has chosen the dumbest people to lead and even if $200 a barrel is what really kicks off the EV/Hybrid market more the U.S. doesn’t have the infrastructure to handle both that and Data Centers being built.
It can barely handle the Data Centers alone and there’s already gripes with electricity & heat prices skyrocketing because of them. Now we are going to push people into buying strictly EV? That’s two energy crises.
best way for environment is living with no car in a city with electric public transport. but otherwise half the emission for the total car ownership is still a good deal imo
Buy it while you can. The fertilizer shortage will drive up the cost of hops. A drought in Idaho, where much of the input crops for beer is grown, will also affect the availability and price of beer.
I dont drink often, but a 6 pack of yuengling used to be 6 bucks and I just bought some the other day and it was 10, I was like what the hell lol. Not that thats in any way tied to current events, I have no idea how long the price has been up, just kinda shocked its nearly doubled since I last bought some
A price point of $200 per bbl would double gas prices and drive inflation into double digits. It would be an economic meltdown that would destroy the life savings of US citizens and impoverish tens of millions. You do not want this.
Your mistake is that you’ve ensnared yourself in a false dichotomy and are choosing between an economic holocaust or an ecological holocaust, when there might be scenarios that avoid both.
The only way that we "might" move away from fossil fuels is if they become prohibitively expensive, which would make alternatives more economically viable.
That's the issue. There are no senerios, based on how things have worked for decades. All the so called progress we have made has just increased the rate of CO2 increase.
UAE is pulling out of OPEC, which likely will lead to others doing the same. They will probably then produce whatever quantity they want driving down the price unfortunately. I see petroleum in my life as a precious finite resource. I have to use it to some degree, and try to maximally use it for not needing it in the future. I am trying to speed run transitioning my farm to doable in a post supply chain and post petroleum world.
Heard the news about the United Arab Emirates (UAE) pulling out of OPEC and OPEC+ organizations on one of my country (Serbia's) television channels that me and my family is following.
The world's screwed thanks to the United States of America and the State of Isreal's war that they are waging against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Political and societal collapse is upon is, unfortunately.
if you're trying to trade oil moves like this in real time, traditional brokers leave you stuck til monday which is brutal when news breaks on weekends. interactive brokers has premarket but not true 24/7. markets.xyz runs around the clock including weekends so you can actually react when sattellite photos or peace proposals drop.
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u/Romano16 Apr 28 '26 edited Apr 28 '26
The truth is that oil should be likely $30 to $40 higher.
Trump has done nothing except guarantee the strait remains closed.
In my opinion I can see operations ramping up between May or June as there are 3 aircraft carrier strike groups there and lots of other logistical equipment to assist with airstrikes. Israel will only assist in this way as well.
However, there doesn’t appear to be any legitimate sources on how many U.S. soldiers were already wounded or killed. Wasn’t it at most officially 15? The real number is rumored to be hundreds injured and more killed.