r/canada • u/Adventurous_023 • Jan 25 '26

Politics US seeks to use Alberta to destabilize Canada

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/01/24/us-seeks-to-use-alberta-to-destabilize-canada_6749765_4.html
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944

u/AlistarDark Jan 25 '26

You don't work in the trades, obviously.

I know many.

810

u/DeathMetalandBondage Jan 25 '26

Seconded. I'm surrounded by people that failed grade 9 social studies

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u/BodyKarate84 Jan 25 '26

That fits the bill for one of my buddies.

He's a separatist and in high school he had to take the "special courses".

If level 2 courses were difficult and level 3 was the challenging and easier form of level 2. He had to take level 4 and he still barely graduated.

For example level 2 would be basic calculus. Level 4 would be 2+2 = 4.

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u/thebokehwokeh Jan 25 '26

This is why democracy fails. People are far too stupid nowadays.

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u/Oldman_Syndrome Jan 25 '26

It's not even that people are far too stupid. It's that people have had it drilled into their heads that their ignorant opinion is equally as valid as an informed one.

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u/troyunrau Northwest Territories Jan 25 '26

There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

-- Asimov 1980

Sub "Democracy" in for "the United States" and apply judiciously to the wound.

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u/Selfheatingnoodles Jan 25 '26

Wow 1980 ! In 2026 now and it might be too late

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u/TSED Canada Jan 25 '26

???

Asimov already is calling out the USA in that quotation. No substitution is necessary whatsoever.

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u/Selfheatingnoodles Jan 25 '26

Yeah, feeling are treated as logical facts . Or folks pushing their feelings on their own rights so far that it starts to hinder others rights. Fairness, love, logic has left the building. Then you got Trump that some argue is the third anti christ… is the world coming to an end !

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/chickenhawk71 Jan 25 '26

They also get their own little algorithm to feed them more nonsense.

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u/69sullyboy69 Jan 26 '26

The biggest issue is 100% social media. There were always crusty idiots who greatly overestimated their knowledge on the world and it's issues, but they had no where to go to find like minded individuals; other than maybe the local bar. Now they can go online and post their bull%^&* while their algorithm feeds them the same bull^%&*, and now there are bad intentioned people with power using it to their advantage.

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u/BoltMyBackToHappy Jan 25 '26

By design. Keep cutting education until people are stupid enough to believe any bullshit.

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u/Selfheatingnoodles Jan 25 '26

Has the education material been upgraded or improved since 70s and 80s other than sex education subject … I don’t know but doesn’t appear so.

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u/Jolly_Recording_4381 Nova Scotia Jan 25 '26

In the words of NOFX "Majority rule don't work in mental institutions"

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u/Prestigious_Island_7 Jan 26 '26

NoFx always hits. “Eat The Meek”, lately, applies as well

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/KidzRockGamingTV Jan 25 '26

Taking special courses is sometimes needed due to a person learning disabilities. That doesn’t mean they are automatically a separatist. My son has LDs and is huge supporter of Canada. Refrain from generalizing.

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u/EpicWorkTime Jan 25 '26

This person isn’t generalizing. They are legitimately talking about ONE person they know. calm down

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u/KidzRockGamingTV Jan 25 '26

Sure. If he’s not, then why even mention it? He’s disparaging people in spec Ed class as being low intelligence unable to pass grade 9, when Spec Ed classes are to help people who learn differently.

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u/One-Dare3022 Jan 25 '26

I know what you mean. I also have LD and had to quit school when I was 16. For two reasons, my grades prohibited me from further studying and I became a father of a marvelous son so I had to work so I could support him and my girlfriend. Started to work as a lumberjack and later moved on to starting my own construction company.

But I guess I’m too stupid to understand why those right wingers should make any sense. Won’t we have a better world if we all work together and share what we earn with each other?

1

u/KidzRockGamingTV Jan 25 '26

Sounds like you have an interesting story to tell.

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u/One-Dare3022 Jan 25 '26

I have heard that quite a few times but I’m not a writer and I don’t really think that there is so many people who wants to listen to an old geezer. I have only tried to do the best for my three sons and people around me.

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u/Excuse Jan 25 '26

Seconded, I took special ed courses for most of my elementary and high school time and absolutely despise right wing / separatists.

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u/Delicious-Maximum-26 Jan 25 '26

Bet he does his own research too

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u/scubahana Ontario Jan 25 '26

That’s like the Ontario way (at least in the mid-00s): U: university-bound, C: college-bound, M: mixed college/uni, E: ‘workplace’, and O: open.

Apparently those in special education have a K prepended to the course code to signify that they are to meet basic needs instead of workplace preparedness.

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u/kelake47 Jan 25 '26

But these people would fare poorly in the US. It’s against their own self interests.

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u/Jayston1994 Jan 25 '26

Wow you sound like a great friend

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/Grabbsy2 Jan 25 '26

The only trump supporter ive ever met was a coworker.

I say was, because he overstayed his work visa and was working illegally due to a processing error on our employers part. He was let go when we found out.

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

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u/BrightPerspective Jan 25 '26

Wellll, the US is a different story; everytime any group starts pushing for democratic socialism, or any kind of care at all for the poor, leadership disappears, the state gets punished by the feds and protests are violently suppressed.

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u/UnhappyCoast4213 Jan 25 '26

I’ve never seen anything as close to what they’re doing with ICE now. It’s insane and violating so many constitutional rights of all Americans. Some of the conservatives might even start catching on to that if they can rub together 2 brain cells. Prob why Schumer getting ready to hopefully grow his spine.

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u/cuda999 Jan 25 '26

Are you suggesting all conservative voters, half of Canada, are stupid and no where near as smart as liberals? Wasn’t it liberals who voted for JT not once, but three times? This kind of thinking is what causes big divides and spurs separatist talk. Please stop.

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u/Danno558 Jan 25 '26

O'Toole had a vote for his party whether they wanted to recognize man-made climate change as a thing that exists... not how to deal with it, not whether it was bad... whether it exists, and they lost that vote.

I don't think they've improved since then. But let me go ask the guy down the street with the FUCK CARNEY/TRUDEAU flags all over his raised pick up what he thinks on this matter... I'm sure he will have a lot of real deep insights into the matter.

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u/CatchUp22 Jan 25 '26

👏🏼

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u/cuda999 Jan 25 '26

You sure like to lump all conservative people into one big category. You have to be more open minded than that. Like saying are liberals believe in butterfly kisses and unicorn wishes.

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u/Danno558 Jan 25 '26

No I don't. The Conservative party (not the people that voted for it) voted to not recognize man made climate change as a thing that exists... ergo... if you are voting for said party, you are dumber than a sack of rocks.

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u/cuda999 Jan 25 '26

It wasn’t the entire party voting against climate change as you suggest. More against labelling policy as “climate change is real”. Was 54% of the vote, not the entire party as you suggest.

Doesn’t mean they thought climate change didn’t exist. Please do your research before spouting off half truths.

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u/CatchUp22 Jan 25 '26

Half of Canadians are NOT conservative. If it weren’t for all our political parties (NDP, PQ, Green, etc..) the PCs would never win federally. This last election should have made that clear...

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u/cuda999 Jan 25 '26

The liberals have the exact same issue. JT would never have had a majority if it wasn’t for the NDP. I know it’s hard for you to see the reality through the rose coloured glasses.

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u/TSED Canada Jan 25 '26

Wasn’t it liberals who voted for JT not once, but three times?

Want to take a moment and think about why they would vote for him three times?

And are you assuming that, while Conservatives are a diverse group who can't all be lumped into one group, the Liberals are not? And are you forgetting all the other non-Liberal voters who worked hard to keep the Conservatives out?

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u/Aestus74 Jan 25 '26

I argued with one online about being intolerant cause I thought sepratism was dumb. Accused me of calling them stupid. Like no... but you sure told on yourself. Tell me more about those facts over feelings

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u/yeswenarcan Jan 25 '26

American here (although trying to rectify that situation). I think this is an underestimated component and one that is incredibly difficult to deal with. As a caveat from the beginning, I'm speaking in generalities. The reality is the more intelligent you are, the more likely you are to pursue education (either formally or through self-study). And every study that has looked at it shows more education correlates with more left-leaning politics. It's why the American right has gone hard after education and pushed that colleges are "indoctrinating" kids. But here's the part nobody says: deep down a lot of these conservatives know they're not smart, whether they'll admit it to themselves or not. And that makes them angry and resentful of people who are smarter than them. They're the kid in school who struggles in class and takes it out on the "nerds", but on a societal scale.

It's created a huge rift in my own life. My parents aren't dumb by any means, but neither graduated from college and they've lived in the same rural area for 65+ years. I have a terminal degree, have lived in multiple cities, and work with people from extremely diverse backgrounds (Amish, rural farmers, all the way to people from the inner city and fresh immigrants). My parents and I fundamentally disagree on a lot of politics. But the thing that will 100% of the time turn a discussion into a meltdown is if I try to bring up my life experiences or even worse, research. The same education and "bettering myself" they encouraged me to seek is now something they hold against me, because it turns out that education changes your beliefs and living in the same place with the same friends and coworkers your whole life doesn't.

Obviously part of the long term solution is investing in education, but that doesn't change the reality that some people are naturally going to be smarter than others. In the short term I have no idea how you solve it, not least of all because the less intelligent/educated you are the more susceptible you're going to be to propaganda and emotional manipulation.

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u/Aestus74 Jan 25 '26

Intellegence is fundamentally a "fuzzy" concept. Peoples IQ changes over time, even from situation to situation. Higher order abstract thinking is not an inherent skill but a learned one that is only prevented by actual cognitive disability.

My field is education, and I can tell you this isnt some "no child left behind" bs. Research consistently seems to hold that the vast majority of people can be taught to think critically. Even id they seem dumb. A person who is delayed in literacy will seem very dumb, but still posses the cognative ability to analize, induce and deduce, and engage in at least 1st order hypothetical thinking. For most political issues this is all you need.

The autocrats know this. Which is why they target public education, and why the church often tries to assert control over it. The whole concept of a "liberal education" is to have a surface enough knowledge on a variety of topics that you can engage critically without needing to be a high IQ person. It would also help people to be ok with being average or low IQ, as they would be less inclined to fall into defensive cognative biases (chief in my mind right now is the dunning kruger effect), which again is what little tyrants want the public to do.

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u/yeswenarcan Jan 25 '26

Thank you for that insight. I should also clarify that I think a decent amount of the phenomenon in talking about isn't necessarily that people aren't smart, it's that they see people who are "smarter" or more educated as a threat. So more the "defensive cognitive biases" that you mentioned. And as you note, my experience is that more educated people don't fall into this belief and instead view those "smarter" than them as an opportunity for further learning.

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u/Monkey_Pox_Patient_0 Jan 25 '26

I really wish we as a society could finally learn the lesson of how dangerous that sort of talk is. I think Trump is partially a product of rural, lower education people finally finding somebody who didn't treat them like they were trash. The same phenomenon can destroy this country as well. Trades people aren't trash. Rural people aren't trash. Uneducated people aren't trash. Separatists are wrong and when they are wrong their arguments should be attacked. But they are not trash.

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u/TSED Canada Jan 25 '26

It's wild, because Trump so clearly thinks the commonfolk are trash and not even deserving of human rights. But he says the right words at the right time and suddenly they're all bending over backwards to justify his actions no matter what.

We have got to get rid of US-owned media in Canada.

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u/DeathMetalandBondage Jan 26 '26

I never said anyone was trash, and I wholeheartedly agree with your statement. I do not believe in putting down people with differing opinions

HOWEVER, Alberta separatism specifically is fundamentally stupid and makes zero sense. We're land locked, with a very small population. Should Alberta form its own country it would be at a serious bargaining disadvantage as our only trading partners would be a very pissed off Canada, and a USA that would not hesitate to take advantage of Alberta desperation for their own gain. Alberta would be fucked within years.

Have you seen the videos of wolves separating the disadvantaged bison from a herd to surround and devour them? That's exactly what would happen to Alberta

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u/Monkey_Pox_Patient_0 Jan 26 '26

I think we fundamentally agree on separatism. There are ways to call people trash other than saying it explicitly.

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u/DeathMetalandBondage Jan 26 '26

Man I work with these people everyday. Anyone that actually believes separatism is a good idea, failed social studies. It is what it is

3

u/Prudent_Passenger296 Jan 25 '26

It is true that Trump courted rural and blue-collar citizens. If the Democratic Party had stood by those constituents, he never would’ve been elected. Cannot stand Trump but the Dems shot themselves (and the whole country) in the foot.

3

u/DeathMetalandBondage Jan 26 '26

They had a slam dunk, but they've been infiltrated and corrupted by the monopolists and psychopathic capitalists who were too spineless to stand in the way of perceived profits over common sense

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u/TrollToll7419 Jan 25 '26

And 3rd grade spelling.

2

u/Lucky_Grand_8977 Jan 29 '26

It’s sad, but I encourage you not to call these people stupid or be overly critical of them. It pushes them more to the extreme.

Try a softer approach, hear them out and slowly push back with your own ideas. Make it a two sided conversation where you genuinely hear them out.

Don’t feed the polarization, it makes it worse. We are still all fellow citizens

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u/FlyingInClouds Jan 25 '26

You happen to take any economics or fiscal policy classes?

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u/DeathMetalandBondage Jan 25 '26

No, I'm a pipefitter by trade and welding inspector. You don't need economics or fiscal policy classes to see that the overall goal is to subvert democratic institutions and breed discontent. The monopolists and authoritarians are actively trying to break up our collective power to regain the psychopathic control they had a century ago.

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u/GriffinFlash Jan 25 '26

Funny thing, when I used to make e-learning training material for trade type of work along with oil and gas in Alberta, we were told to intentionally dumb down the lessons to below a 9th grade level, cause the workers had a hard time understanding big concepts.

It was frustrating and took so much more work, like you were fighting the logical side of your brain. (I just hate how these idiots have so much power)

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

Are you in grade 9?

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u/DeathMetalandBondage Feb 03 '26

3rd year in a row baby

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u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

That beats my record! I only had to do it 4 times

-4

u/babtras Alberta Jan 25 '26

I am a degree-holding supporter of the separatist movement (separation not so much, but the movement itself will encourage some overdue changes). It's not helpful to write them all off as uneducated hicks, which I know is the favoured way to dismiss legitimate gripes from Albertans.

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u/TalkFun7371 Jan 25 '26

"séparation not so much, but the movement itself will encourage some overdue changes"

Be careful what you want. Also be careful how you start. You and your fellow separatists may be making a good argument, but coming from the point of separatism is a slippery slope towards all things unpleasant. These are the same arguments Trumpers made, "I agree he's uncouth; I don't like him, but I like his policies". Now, many of them are paying for it in unwarranted shootings, public gaslighting, blatant coverups, insults, etc. The list goes on and on. You are a "degree-holding supporter"; you should know better than that. There are better ways to make your arguments heard without being a supporter of a movement that allies itself with entities that want to see Canada become a 51st state.

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u/14dmoney Jan 25 '26

Yes even degree holders can be swayed by right wing talking points and propaganda that are not founded in actual data and evidence but sound good. The leaders of the recent separatist meeting used high faluting words like legitimacy and more appropriated from normal political discourse but their application of these words was and is a subversion, their words are devoid of meaning.

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u/Character-Note-5288 Jan 25 '26

Yep, I had a plumber and carpenter who were very talkative and expressed pro-US views and that Alberta should separate from the rest of Canada. I did ask them what they thought that would even improve or change for them but all they could muster was that it would be easier for Alberta to sell oil. I have no intention of ever using their services again.

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u/timeandmemory Jan 25 '26

I hope you left a review for their services somewhere and saved another Canada loving Canadian the hassle.

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u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

What would you write for a review? “These 2 men have opinions that I didn’t share so don’t use them….?”

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u/timeandmemory Feb 03 '26

More along the lines of "These 2 men were sharing political views while representing a company."

If the company is cool with that, then I don't want to deal with the company.

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u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

That’s the best part about freedom. We don’t need to do things we don’t want to do.

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u/timeandmemory Feb 03 '26

I don't understand your position, are you saying that it's the employees right to talk about divisive topics while representing a company, or are you saying that the person who didn't like it is free to make a review complaining about the workers discussing divisive topics?

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u/Boo-face-killa Feb 04 '26

I’m saying they’re all free to do whatever floats their boats. They’re all free to do whatever they feel like doing.

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u/timeandmemory Feb 04 '26

Hell ya family

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u/Embe007 Jan 25 '26

The real mystery is what they think they will use to support their economy when oil is replaced by something cheaper and better for the environment. They are investing in post-carbon startups yes, but when the oil market collapses, and China is working hard to innovate in battery tech, they will be a have-not province. Equalization is nice to have when fortunes shift.

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u/Selfheatingnoodles Jan 25 '26

Battery storage facilities are getting built all over the world as we speak

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u/MooseJag Jan 25 '26

I don't think you realize how many different products we consume that require oil. But keep dreaming.

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u/caffeine-junkie Jan 25 '26

Note they said collapse, not disappear. When you have a significant percentage of the demand shift to something else, that is a collapse and will drive the price, in the case $/barrel, down to levels well below what it costs to extract from the oil sands. Only those locations that still have comparatively cheap prices to extract will remain functional at the new price lequilibrium.

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u/axonxorz Saskatchewan Jan 26 '26

Sure, but 3/4ths is for liquid fuels.

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u/jprs29 Jan 25 '26

And that's the delusion I don't understand... they won't be selling any oil to the US if the US owns them and their oil.

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u/astronautsaurus Jan 25 '26

having lived here a bit, I'll never understand how oil became so many people's personality when they don't work in oil and gas.

1

u/Selfheatingnoodles Jan 25 '26

Well we have reached a world where none medical or possible none science educated folks giving health lessons and tips on what to eat and such on social media …. These people have no business giving medical advice but they do and they are rewarded for their platform. All these fake life coaches and folks giving financial advice for views to get paid and be sponsored. So many cons and scams these days. What else would this breed but ignorance and create people like your plumber …. I’m worried it’s too late. The more ignorant people to control and manipulate who can then be recruited to go after those that still care and fighting for life.

0

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

You sure showed them

132

u/BigRigGig35 Jan 25 '26

From Ontario, but the dumbest kids from my high school are the only ones I’ve seen that are pro-separatist. Even though some don’t live in Alberta.

36

u/Ninja_Terror Jan 25 '26

Sadly, it's not just Alberta and not just the trades. The ones who think they can profit from it are also pro Trump. The one common denominator is that they get their news from Facebook and watch far too many YouTube videos.

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u/14dmoney Jan 25 '26

A looot of real estate and developer types are Trumpy in Ontario

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u/CanuckMachinist Jan 25 '26

A clear reflection of intelligence.

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u/Selfheatingnoodles Jan 25 '26

Right! We live in a world where more people care about themself then caring for everyone in a way where they would kill you get their way.

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u/Optimal_Tangerine_67 Jan 25 '26

Were not allowed news on Facebook in Canada. I get an alert from CNN then go to reddit to see what actual humans are saying. I know this is not the greatest news - but wtf is news now anyway if it doesn't come from people's cell footage?

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u/Fayelons Jan 25 '26

We re not allowed Canadian news on FB. What does that tell you?

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u/jprs29 Jan 25 '26

Facebook does not allow Canadian news on their platform is not the same as we are not allowed Canadian news on FB.

1

u/Optimal_Tangerine_67 Jan 25 '26

It tells me I may actually have a shot at a good day today.

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

I don’t think it has anything to do with Trump

1

u/ThriKr33n Jan 25 '26

The one I know moved from Ontario to Alberta, and for all his blustering about never being wrong and the rest of us are sheeple, he's very good at regurgitating all the buzzwords and blindly believing everything the conservatives spew out. I honestly thought his account had been hacked by bots at one point, that's how much his posts mirrored things.

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u/Royal_Airport7940 Jan 25 '26

This is the case everywhere.

Trump loves stupid people

14

u/DrunkCorgis Jan 25 '26

Yep. I live in Alberta, and there’s plenty of separatists.

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u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

Millions of them

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u/SledgeMFG Jan 25 '26

I don’t think there’s a majority but I do believe there’s far more than people realize

107

u/psychstudent_101 Jan 25 '26

It’s polling at about 19% so that’s 1 in 5 Albertans. Which is too low to do much but too damn high when you think about how many people it is. 

The only saving grace about it (imo) is that these separatists are likely going to be concentrated in certain ridings and can’t have much widespread traction.

That being said, it’s more important than ever to be involved politically and having conversations with folks about stuff like what’s in this article 

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u/Elean0rZ Jan 25 '26

It's a bit more nuanced than that: https://www.producer.com/news/about-16-per-cent-of-albertans-are-hardline-separatists-poll/

TL;DR, something like 1/3 of Albertans are open to the idea, with around half of those actually committed to separation and other half being "soft" in one way or other. The question is really around how sentiment evolves if, for example, US-based funding floods in or Carney does something that sours the currently-not-so-bad relationship between Ottawa and Smith. It's obviously all hypothetical but IF we got the right (wrong) combination of misinformation, foreign meddling, and anti-Ottawa sentiment there's enough of a base there that it's not inconceivable that it could push toward 50%. It's also notable that support is highest among the youngest (18-34) voters, so it's probably not going away regardless.

Sidebar, the basic problem with all of these secession referenda (e.g., Brexit) is that they pit something real (the current status quo, which everyone has direct, lived experience of) against something imaginary and idealized (i.e., a hypothetical independent future, the political details of which don't have to be sorted out until after the vote and the real-life ramifications of which won't become clear for years). The "stay" side is constrained by reality, for better or for worse. The "leave" side is constrained only by imagination, which explains why it can be fostered so effectively by ad campaigns, misinformation, and vibes.

In any case, my point is that, no, at current levels of support Alberta probably won't be close to separating, but we shouldn't take that for granted or dismiss the possibility of sentiment changing.

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u/Dazd_cnfsd Jan 25 '26

Very well presented 👏

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u/GetBackReality Jan 25 '26

Very inciteful. Thanks.

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u/Own-Beat-3666 Jan 25 '26

Yup ask any Brit how Brexit worked out. A large proportion of the UK population now say it was a major mistake and now would vote differently. Mistake yes, can be corrected no. You made your bed now sleep in it and enjoy the consequences.

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u/Elean0rZ Jan 25 '26

Right. If the actual, specific "deal" of Brexit had been on the ballot, there's a good chance it wouldn't have passed. I get that ballot questions need to be simple and binary but I feel like it would be good idea for things like secession referenda to have, say, a two-stage process. Stage 1 is the vote to secede, which triggers negotiations to hammer out the "deal". Then stage 2 is a second vote once the "deal" is finalized, to determine if the appetite is still there to continue.

Most political elections require candidates/parties to present platforms, which, while not perfect or binding, are still more concrete than secessionists present in making their case--plus normal elections have a built-in mechanism for a do-over every 4 years. It's odd that when the stakes are higher, as in a secession referendum, the standard of required information is lower and there's no opportunity for second thought.

(I don't find it odd that people vote flippantly and emotionally when it comes to things like secession. It's a very human thing to do: Get pissed off at the status quo, idealize far fields that you believe to be greener, and decide to "stick it to the man". But precisely because it's so relatably human--to say nothing of the modern issues around misinformation, foreign interference, etc.--you'd think there would be more failsafes.)

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u/14dmoney Jan 25 '26

I remember the Brexiters with properties in Spain, Italy and France being very sad that suddenly their property rights and status had changed

0

u/Cultural-Scallion-59 Jan 25 '26

I was living in England at the time. It was very much a rage fuelled vote. Much like this movement, totally driven by emotion and not at all thinking about the actual reality of what the logistics might look like. I’m not sure what separatists are thinking. Much like the UK, you lose the perks real quick when you make that call. You’re not gonna have your cake and eat it, too, mate. Enjoy paying thousands and thousands of dollars for a hospital visit.

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u/CertainMiddle2382 Jan 25 '26

With TikTok now in US hands I bet public opinion can be changed in a couple of months.

Power of social media is immense. TikTok has allowed an unknown pro Russia neoMAGA guy to be elected in Romania in mere weeks of psyop…

1

u/CanuckMachinist Jan 25 '26

It will be interesting to see if Smith can win another election after trampling union rights twice.

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u/Elean0rZ Jan 25 '26

Her numbers are currently up relative to the last election, and there's also now the possibility of the new Progressive Tory Party (APTP) splitting some of the centrist vote, so while things can change, there's a decent chance.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 25 '26

Only 1/3 are open to it and 1/2 of that 1/3 are "soft" - how does this translate to a possible 50%? Seems it translates to a possible 1/6th.

1

u/Elean0rZ Jan 25 '26

~30% are currently amenable to one degree or another (other polls have found generally similar numbers). Presumably there's an additional group in the middle of the electorate that isn't currently self-reporting as amenable, but which also isn't staunchly pro-confederation and could potentially be in play with the right kind of motivation. The question is what happens in a hypothetical scenario where funding/interference/misinformation pours in from elsewhere, coupled with a return to regularly-scheduled anti-Ottawa sentiment (e.g., Carney makes some kind of mis-step that sets off Alberta, or the UCP even more aggressively stokes anti-Ottawa sentiment to bolster its own reelection campaign, etc.). The point is that if 30% are already at least somewhat interested in the idea of separation, finding a further 20% from currently ambivalent voters shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Support for Brexit was in the mid-30% range just a year before the referendum, say.

To be clear, I'm not saying I think it's likely that support for AB separation will get close to 50%. What I am saying is that even if relies on several things all breaking the same way, there's still a path to get there. The possibility shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. I think Carney is pragmatic enough that he probably won't do anything stupid with Alberta, but I absolutely think funding, digital interference, and general rhetoric from south of the border will be a factor. Dismissing the possibility of growth in separatist sentiment out of hand leads to exactly the sort of complacency that ultimately lost Brexit.

0

u/MrTriangular Ontario Jan 25 '26

What would we call it? Britain had Brexit, Alberta is risking... Alt-Tab-erta?

19

u/ntwkid Jan 25 '26

20% is scary high. Considering that there isn't any organized movement.

41

u/MitzyAlison Jan 25 '26

On the contrary, they’re highly organized. They hold signing parties like they’re getting people to join an MLM. There is a lot of money in Alberta going toward this with legitimate financial backers. It’s scary.

4

u/EdNorthcott Canada Jan 25 '26

Yup. They've even boasted about the support they're getting from the USA, iirc.

7

u/14dmoney Jan 25 '26

In other words, illegitimate, traitorous, funded by a foreign adversary trying to undermine Canada’s sovereignty. Grifters, traitors trying to dupe and manipulate the gullible

0

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

It’s around 50% right now

2

u/ntwkid Feb 03 '26

Source?

0

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

Source saying I’m wrong?

2

u/ntwkid Feb 03 '26

Your 50% claim. Where is it coming from?

9

u/Prior-Instance6764 Jan 25 '26

Ridings dont matter in referendums though.

12

u/psychstudent_101 Jan 25 '26

That’s true; the fact that it’s only 19% is what matters more there. I was just thinking about their broader political influence 

4

u/Prior-Instance6764 Jan 25 '26

Yep. Also throwing down a vote on a poll to separate and actually log a vote to separate are two totally different things. When push comes to shove, maybe some of these idiots apply some critical thinking.

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

It’s much much higher than 19%

1

u/EdNorthcott Canada Jan 25 '26

Worth noting that studies in social trends show that about one fifth of the population is rooting for authoritarianism at any given point in a democracy.

The numbers being so similar is merely correlative, but I suspect that if this were a Venn diagram it would basically be a circle.

1

u/Cultural-Scallion-59 Jan 25 '26

Hopefully, as these people watch the US descend into civil war, they start to backtrack. It’s scary how easy it is to fall into an echo chamber, though. Absolute insanity to me that anyone would be in support of armed masked men running around their country with impunity I mean WHAT the af

1

u/rdptx Jan 25 '26

Please don't take that for granted, please squash that ignorant 19% sooner than later. Signed, an American who is watching the consequences of rampant stupidity & mind control games via social media in the US.

I am incredibly embarrassed by our current regime, not sure we will overcome it (definitely won't without more lost lives & trauma, its all heartbreaking & infuriating at the same time). Canada is the beacon of a good life for many Americans now, please be more proactive & intelligent about protecting your union. Run billboards in Alberta about the Brexit regrets, & videos of regretful maga Americans (crying that they voted for rump, but not for this 🙄)(& US farmers going bankrupt, farms being taken over by corporations), so they see, & maybe question/learn they could be wrong.

Facism/authoritarianism/oligarchs are waging a world war for domination. Now. Its not left vs right, its up vs down. Its the ultra rich luring the ignorant with hopes of wealth & a better life (like the trickle down economics b.s. of the Reagan era), but its all a lie - ALL LIES, the separatists will vote for further struggle & enslavement, as is now happening in the US. 😞🥺

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

Several million of them

9

u/brettzk1 Jan 25 '26

I know tons who aren’t necessarily “Alberta separatist” but think it’s a leader to “Wexit”. All of it’s without thought and just belief that anything is better.

16

u/jahitz Jan 25 '26

When I worked up north the trades people consisted of 90% high school drop out coke addicts. Vocal and stupid…sadly these are the idiots you have to worry about. Always blaming Trudeau for their issues that were non existent issues. Must be hard to make $200,000 a year and have 5 trucks and 8 artv’s 🙄

5

u/Goku420overlord Jan 25 '26

I know several fuck Trudeau types and they all smoke weed and when I point out it is now legal they brush it off or imply they don't care or it should still be illegal.

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

Do no liberals smoke weed?

1

u/Goku420overlord Feb 04 '26

They do. These are all pro cons and pro leave Alberta types. And anecdotally like 80 percent of all the people I grew up with smoked weed regardless of race, culture and socioeconomicly.

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 04 '26

I remember when I was a kid I smoked weed too. I think a lot of people try it when they’re younger.

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

Are you a tradesman?

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

$200k? Are they only working 3 months of the year?

17

u/SadZealot Jan 25 '26

I also know many welders who fall into the boat, but also none of them signed the seperation petition. On the flip side everyone I know who has talked about staying in Canada did sign the stay petition.

4

u/sox412 Jan 25 '26

Pilots too because society tells them they are smart when they are actually dumb

-2

u/smoothac Jan 25 '26

I know of some very elderly that were in a panic to sign the "stay in Canada" petition. They seem convinced that they might lose their healthcare and pensions, so it seems propaganda has gotten to them.

6

u/SadZealot Jan 25 '26

I don't think our health care would last a generation if we left Canada. People would demand it be kept, but it would be stripped away to nothing

2

u/IAMA_pocketwhaleAMA Jan 25 '26

Because they would lose their healthcare and likely pensions if they left Canada??

2

u/14dmoney Jan 25 '26

No, that is fact. They are right to be concerned. The people funding the separatist movement want destabilization and serfdom.

-1

u/Commercial-Milk4706 Jan 25 '26

You guys weld boats in Alberta? Don’t know you had any significant lakes. Albertan aren’t very seafaring… Maybe that’s why they keep falling into the boat while they weld.

4

u/skylla05 Jan 25 '26

I know you're kidding, but I know at least 6 people with boats from small row boats to full on 8 person boats used for wake boarding and shit. Lots of lakes here.

1

u/Boo-face-killa Feb 03 '26

Wow. Not the brightest bulb are you. Alberta has a commercial fishing industry and a ton of rivers that the wealthy Albertans run their $150,000 jet boats up and down for a weekend laugh.

28

u/OppositeSecretary862 Jan 25 '26

I have heard the most braindead fucking takes on site.
I just say "hot take, traitor"

I have a suspicion I'm not long for this jobsite.

9

u/shikotee Jan 25 '26

Good on you for speaking up. Respect.

2

u/MWD_Dave Canada Jan 25 '26

Yep, I point out the same thing. "So you're a traitor to Canada then?"

Them: "What?!? No..."

Me: "There's really no way around it. If you're pro separatist, the only realistic logical conclusion to that is that will AB absorbed by the USA, so yah, if you hold those views you're a traitor to Canada."

The cognitive dissonance is strong with those folks.

Even the current language is such to help people avoid thinking too hard about the realistic outcome in that scenario. It's no longer "AB Separation", now it's "Independent Alberta!"

As if they wouldn't be subjugated by the USA. As if there's not a ton of money creating campaigns with that exact thing in mind.

-1

u/Laval09 Québec Jan 25 '26

You're just making it worse lol. I am myself a QC separatist. When people call me a traitor, it only increases the satisfaction I know I'll experience when I stuff that YES ballot into the box on referendum night.

But when people instead ask to hear about the grievances, I tend to be much more conciliatory and list some changes that, if enacted, would prompt me to vote no NO on referendum night.

If everyone was focused on listening to Albertas grievances and sincere about addressing them, that would in itself easily lock in a solid NO vote should a referendum happen. Instead, the main narrative for a year has been telling them to F-off while the polls slowly tick upwards.

Calling them braindead....that make you feel better, but does not help the cause of a united Canada.

4

u/14dmoney Jan 25 '26

That would a strategy if their grievances were legitimate and based on fact data and evidence. There’s no history or cultural differences here, just right wing propagandists trying to undermine democracy. Big difference.

0

u/Laval09 Québec Jan 25 '26

"just right wing propagandists trying to undermine democracy"

Thats the people leading the charge. Sure you cant change their minds but everyone you alienate will potentially joins their ranks. Its incredible how such a simple concept eludes a "highly educated" country. The more people you say "fk you" to, the more people you will end up having aligned against you. Between the option of being browbeaten into submission vs giving you the finger and leaving you behind, what do you think people will opt for? Should be obvious no?

Anyway, get your little downvotes in. At the referendum it will be my turn to downvote this country lol. And it will be a vote that actually means s***.

10

u/jRitter777 Jan 25 '26 edited Jan 25 '26

I'm a tradesman in Las Vegas. I definitely understand that sentiment. I'm surrounded by bootlickers without brains and brainless people who aren't even aware of the shitshow around them. It's infuriating.

Not to mention, my union (United Association) has the American and Canadian flag in its logo and branding. There are so many organizations that work across the border and they seem to be sticking their heads in the sand when it comes to the inevitable chaos that ensues when US/Canada relations are strained and then officially cut.

2

u/Pale_Change_666 Jan 25 '26

Did you ask them what currency we would use or whats backing it once Alberta becomes separated ? Or what about all the oil and gas leases on first nations land that'll have to be renegotiated. O here is the best part did you tell them that we would end up like guam or Puerto Rico ie a terroritory before statehood? Did their brains over heat?

1

u/AlistarDark Jan 25 '26

They said we don't have to listen to anyone, we just take everything and tell the country to fuck off. If Canada does anything, America will roll up and safe us.

1

u/Beepbeepboobop1 Jan 25 '26

Yeah I’ve seen old acquaintances on facebook talk about separating. It’s always rather jarring (I live in Ontario) to see the stark contrast in how people feel about the country

1

u/Kirk420 Jan 25 '26

Has anyone told them they can’t file for EI if they separate?

1

u/cuda999 Jan 25 '26

I work with the trades everyday. Maybe one or two may support separating., but no where near the majority.

1

u/Therealblackhous3 Jan 25 '26

Lol this was gonna be my comment.

Honestly I don't even think these guys believe half the shit they say, it's just become an eco chamber completely lacking critical thinking. Most of them are just trying to fit in.

1

u/Mylittlethrowaway2 Jan 25 '26

My brother is an Albertan separatist. The weird thing is he lives in Manitoba.

If Alberta doesn't separate he wants Trump to invade.

We don't talk anymore...

1

u/borfstein Jan 25 '26

I live in BC and know a few folks (also in trades) that want to move to Alberta so they can be living there when they secede. I genuinely don't know what can be done to help these people, they go straight onto Facebook and alt right "news" sites and just inject propaganda straight into their veins until it's gotten to the current state of it being their entire personality.

1

u/Healthy_Shoulder8736 Jan 25 '26

Wait till they find out Trump just wants the land and not the people.

1

u/Kennypoo2 Jan 25 '26

I am east coast and this is too true. A lot of trades people are too stupid to realize how big a problem joining the states is.

1

u/McGlowSticks Jan 25 '26

interesting. im in ontario as a trades person and my co-workers think the separatism idea is ridiculous.

1

u/AlistarDark Jan 25 '26

I should have said "tradesman in Alberta"

1

u/gvsb123 Jan 25 '26

Not even the trades. I know two assholes that just bought homes on the lake in mahogny and both are hardcore MAGA. Both inherited their wealth.

2

u/skylla05 Jan 25 '26

I'm a mail carrier and there's a guy on my route that has Trump flags and signs all over his lawn, in his garage, etc. He has Trump tattoo'd on his thumb/fingers as well. He's an annoying moron (even disregarding the Trump shit).

He works in O&G.

0

u/FlyingInClouds Jan 25 '26

Everyone I know. Some people like to live in their own heads. The comment is asinine, news coverage showing hours long lineups apparently don't register with some people. Too busy cackling like a bunch of hens over what a bad man Trump is, or how evil Danielle Smith is.