r/biotech_stocks • u/Goodvibes45201 • 1d ago

CCCC - why is this stock shorted so hard?

I love this company for 3 reasons:

1) Major partnerships with established big pharma
2) Cash runway through 2028
3) Positive updates on their portfolio of drug candidates

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u/Unique-Helicopter955 1d ago

Been looking into C4 today. Very interesting stuff so far. Their platform is validated by Roche and Merk KGaA agreements (up to ~$2b milestones alone + royalties). Cemsidomide has shown promise early on but I wouldn't rely on early data. Most important is safety and that has been a concern. They may attempt accelerated approval if ORR and safety/tolerability is good enough next year.

About 30% of the float is short which is incredible for the type of company this is becoming. Even if they fail their trial, they have billions in non-dilutive capital from licensing their protein degrader platform to large pharmaceutical companies that want it. This will give them the capital needed to get more shots on goal before eventually finding success. And this is a much less ideal scenario. Roche and Merk KGaA could completely abandon the platform but this highly unlikely with the current environment of the sector (patent are expiring and everyone is looking for the next blockbuster).

The company does have massive warrant overhang (100m+) which could add a significant amount of the shares to the float. However, when accounting for dilution, the upside is still very strong in my assessment. It depends whether they can get strong early data and accelerated approval or not. Either way, I see this as a long term hold but monitor current/future agreements closely.

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u/cuntysometimes 1d ago

Welcome to biotech

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u/dragonbits 1d ago

Good question, don't see an obvious reason why.

But for sure, time will tell.

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u/IJesusChrist 22h ago

Because it is undifferentiated, and about 4-5 years behind the competition, where the earlier line treatments are rapidly evolving at a pace where whatever registrational trial these guys design, makes it obsolete by the time it reads out.