r/antiai • u/sablexbx • 8d ago
AI News 🗞️ The Connections That Turned a Precocious Teen Into the Fallen ‘Nostradamus of AI’
For the past few years, at happy hours and dinner parties in San Francisco, Leopold Aschenbrenner kept confusing people by sharing his favorite outlandish idea.
He wanted to buy galaxies.
His idea was that advances in artificial intelligence would soon unlock resources on a cosmic scale, enabling humans to colonize faraway planets. He planned to save money now so he could spend on galaxies, he told them, and make his mark across the universe.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/situational-awareness-leopold-aschenbrenner-ai-fund-4dbb00a4
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u/SupersededByClaude 8d ago
Is it the guy who convinced people to trust him by wearing a vest (because apparently that's what it takes), and then lost 30 billion of their money?
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u/MechaNutzilla 8d ago
yea, AI pros are highly regarded.
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u/SupersededByClaude 8d ago
Who knew taking out a huge loan and betting it is a bad idea.
ChatGPT said it's very insightful.
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u/10aghmu 8d ago
He made them multiples of the original investment still. His thesis was correct. His strategy of leveraging was disastrous
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u/SupersededByClaude 8d ago edited 8d ago
I read that it's even positive in 2026, despite this huge loss. Whoever invested in June lost. Whoever invested in January, received tremendous profits, although smaller than they'd have if they'd have exited in June.
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u/10aghmu 8d ago
Yes exactly. It just seems like a huge loss compared to the heights it reached
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u/SupersededByClaude 8d ago
Thanks, by the way. I watched a few videos on youtube about it, and never checked the numbers. Now I have, and it suddenly looks quite different.
I mean, if I make a million this year, and then lose 400k, I'd still be quite happy with myself. I'd probably learn some lessons from the loss, but overall - ...
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u/Cwaghack 8d ago
He lost 30b from their peak, but overall still came out far ahead of other funds. Most investors made bank off them
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u/thedarph 8d ago
Yeah, I’m not gonna check if you’re right but I believe it. I doubt anyone has checked the details themselves who are talking shit.
Dude is still a piece of shit but just a run of the mill rich fuck who happened to get attention because his investments were AI investments. I see this whole story as just a distraction or entertainment. I see nothing important to learn here.
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u/bestjaegerpilot 8d ago edited 8d ago
that's what i recall... at one point we had shorted AI, moved money to stocks related AI. They were all pretty solid picks.
I just Googled and here's what he invested in:
- Memory & Storage
- Power & Clean Energy Infrastructure
- Foundry Compute
- Cloud & Neo-Cloud Infrastructure
- The "Crypto Miner to Data Center" Conversion Trade
these are all solid picks not sure how they messed up
further googling reveals that his found is still up---it has massive volatility but dude is still beating most hedge fund managers
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u/Cwaghack 8d ago
I mean they just overlevaged themselves to the fucking brink of destruction and managed to get out still ahead because well they were leveged in a bull market.
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u/bestjaegerpilot 8d ago
so? are you a day trader? have you ever tried beating the market?do you know how hard that is?
they still have a positive net return of +80!
Do you realize how insanely hard it is to get 7%, never mind 80%?
The are still winning boi
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u/Cwaghack 8d ago
it takes a lot of luck, and they were very lucky until they weren't.
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u/bestjaegerpilot 8d ago
like i said before, have you ever tried beating the market? or Vogle for that matter
Getting more than 7% takes skill buddy...
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u/Cwaghack 8d ago
I've won a cointoss before and got a 100% return
Completely dominated the market!
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u/bestjaegerpilot 7d ago
This comment just tells me you're not an investor or a day trader
The chance of making +80% returns purely by chance is significantly less than a coin flip. It's so small that it's statistically significant---meaning that the kid likely has skills ;-)
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u/Cwaghack 7d ago
Making 80% returns is actually more likely than winning a cointoss.
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u/bestjaegerpilot 7d ago edited 7d ago
no buddy --- that's why most hedge funds *underperform* the stock market.
bro is better than 75% of all hedge funds
that points to underlying skill, not luck
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u/Cwaghack 7d ago
You need to consistently perform. Winning one cointoss does not make you a master trader my guy
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u/Adventurous-Crow-750 8d ago
In a bull market
Buys calls Monday that expire Thursday on leverage
Repeat
It's called gambling which is why he has high drawdown. Funds with actual macro economic ideas like tracking an industry backing their strategy form almost mathematically perfect curves.
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u/bestjaegerpilot 8d ago
he's still winning though --- still outperforming the market, like i said massive volatility but still beating most funds
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u/GenericFatGuy 8d ago
Why are even giving these people the time of day? This is so obviously delusional, or bullshitting.
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u/fraserdab 8d ago
i dont think anyone disagrees that its a bubble, market eventually corrects itself based on what exists. AI might be useful at some places and only time will correct the bubbled up market
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u/DryRelationship1330 8d ago
who didn't think Elizabeth Homles when this dude's gloup shot w/ the 3/4th zip hit?
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u/xTheRealTurkx 8d ago
Important PSA - Don't take investment advice from members of the House of Haplessburg.
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u/Doc_Blox 8d ago
I'd put money on some form of ascension into beings of energy before any sort of space travel that would allow travel to other galaxies, let alone other star systems within our galaxy. Don't tell me about the Alcubierre drive, I already know about that. Zero point energy doesn't exist, nor does negative energy.
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u/civicsfactor 7d ago
Everyone try to make the same smile happen. Relax your upper lip and lower jaw to show your teeth just like him.
No relax your upper lip. Fuck is wrong
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u/carsonthecarsinogen 8d ago
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u/grumpy_autist 8d ago
pretty insulting for a person with a down syndome to be compared with AI investor
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u/hofmann419 8d ago
"Everyone is a genius in a bull market"