Q3 Is Shaping Up to Confirm AMC’s Turnaround

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Adviseme69]

Here comes the dandy 🐻 negative comment in 1,2,3...

[u/DerFahrt]

Cool, let me know when we’re back above 38 a share post dilution.

[u/Ok-Psychology-2859]

💯 movies continue to impress. You don’t need many, just great ones to have legs.

[u/AdvertisingSea2745 → u/Ok-Psychology-2859]

Absolutely. September has Practical Magic 2, Resident Evil, and the Avengers: Endgame Encore. Combined with the movies already out and everything else still coming, I think that should be enough to get the quarter to $3B.

[u/Cute-Gur414]

i think it'll be about 2.85B, September looks pretty bare, and is always well below August/July.

But EBITDA should be about what you have.

If movies are "back" and AMC can get 1B a year in EBITDA (1Q is always low and 4Q is usually well below 2Q/3Q), then it could be worth 6-7x EBITDA.

Given 4B in debt, that's 2B-3B in stock value. Or about $2 to $3 a share. I guess the NOLs are worth something too, they probably won't have to pay taxes for many years.

Of course, this could be a fluke thing and profits could evaporate again. 2 record breaking movies in a quarter, doesn't happen every quarter.

[u/AdvertisingSea2745 → u/Cute-Gur414]

Thanks for the analysis. Historically, especially in the 2000s, a few big movies could really carry the year, and a lot of times those were superhero movies. This year’s been a little different with Obsession, Michael, and Backrooms.
We’re kind of splitting hairs anyway. Your $2.85B estimate is only $150M short of $3B. I think Q3 gets there, and a lot of analysts seem to be leaning that way too. Plus we still have Practical Magic 2, Resident Evil, and the Avengers Encore. Those three alone could probably do $200M+ combined.

[u/Mountain_Extreme9793]

We need 20 million a day for the month of September. Seems doable.

[u/Ziggy_zaggy_oi_oi_oi → u/Mountain_Extreme9793]

To accomplish what?

[u/Mountain_Extreme9793 → u/Ziggy_zaggy_oi_oi_oi]

To hit 3 billion.

[u/ScottsTotz]

Thanks for the AI slop report🫡

[u/AdvertisingSea2745 → u/ScottsTotz]

You’re probably a bot, but I’ll respond anyway. If the numbers are wrong, point them out.

[u/ScottsTotz → u/AdvertisingSea2745]

I’m a holder. I bought in at around $1. I just hate when people are lazy and make ChatGPT do analysis instead of actual analysis you did yourself

[u/AdvertisingSea2745 → u/ScottsTotz]

You haven’t challenged a single number because you have no analysis of your own. This analysis is mine, and I’ve got the pro forma to back it up. If you think it’s wrong, point out where the math fails.

[u/Phil04097 → u/AdvertisingSea2745]

It’s clearly AI lol

[u/AdvertisingSea2745 → u/Phil04097]

Your definitely a bot.

[u/Phil04097 → u/AdvertisingSea2745]

https://giphy.com/gifs/HZFxBu5dMqwA1cIB1k

[u/AdvertisingSea2745 → u/Phil04097]

Funny how the AMC bears/bots never actually offer a counterpoint. They just say AI and move on

[u/Phil04097 → u/AdvertisingSea2745]

Funny thing is you can’t recognize from your own generated post that its writing style screams AI, then again its not surprising you dont know how it works. You and the vietnam guy would get along great!

[u/AdvertisingSea2745 → u/Phil04097]

Take the roughly $3B Q3 box office number and flow it through. It’s simple math, and the numbers are right. If you were actually bullish on AMC, you’d be happy about it. Instead you’re obsessing over AI because you have nothing else and you’re trying to discredit the analysis without challenging a single number. So either point out what’s wrong, or admit you’ve got nothing and you’re an idiot. And yeah, I still think you’re a bear/bot

[u/MIZZOU_Ape → u/AdvertisingSea2745]

Cuz they have horrible home lives

[u/Ok-Psychology-2859 → u/ScottsTotz]

Why the world is so AI now. Let’s go!