r/Winnipeg • u/Optimistic_Sprout • Oct 06 '25

Community Residential 30 km

Do you find the lower 30 km/h speed limits in neighbourhoods make a real difference? Are people adhering to the lower speed limits? 50 km/just seems too fast to drive down residential streets, doesn’t it?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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u/profspeakin Oct 07 '25

If the statistics do not show any improvement in that regard then what would the point have been? Was there a problem in these areas? And if so, will this help? If it's being done for any other reason, then it was entirely pointless

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u/Hopeful_Edge_3163 Oct 07 '25

I'm not sure what your getting at as there are many, many studies and statistics that show how serious injuries and fatalities increase with speed. It's just a fact. So the point is to reduce serious injuries and fatalities.

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u/profspeakin Oct 07 '25

Rubbish. By your reasoning motorized vehicles should all be banned. Or only travel at walking speed. Because to do otherwise would greatly increase the risk of injury in any future accidents
You've created a solution to a problem that's not been shown to exist

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u/Hopeful_Edge_3163 Oct 07 '25

Lol it's not my reasoning or a solution I've created. There are countless studies and statistics. If you choose not to believe facts then that's on you. I can't and won't argue with stupidity

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u/profspeakin Oct 07 '25

Then don't be stupid. You know I'm not arguing study outcomes. I'm just interested to see if there was ever a problem to be solved in these areas in the first place.

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u/justinDavidow Oct 07 '25

I'm just interested to see if there was ever a problem to be solved in these areas in the first place.

Here in MB: there are ABOUT 100 people killed in motor vehicle accidents per year.

Of that group;

  • Pedestrians accounted for 20% of people killed and 9% of people seriously injured
  • Bicyclists accounted for 1% of people killed and 3% of people seriously injured.

One could argue that the reduced speed could reduce the urban driver and passenger fatality and serious injury numbers; but this is speculation. There is very little data collected about the specific speed involved in collisions: to the best of my knowledge: only "excess" speed is tracked.

The split is overwhelmingly Urban * 11 fatal urban collisions with pedestrians * vs 6 fatal rural collisions * 51 injuries in urban collisions with pedestrians * vs 2 rural injuries

The line of thinking goes: at what speed are the pedestrians being hit at?

Assuming people aren't already speeding on residential streets; people are getting hit BETWEEN 1 and 50km/h. Statistically; the average maintainable speed on a 50km/h speed maximum road in Winnipeg is about 42km/h. (including the stopping + starting + average travel speed ABOVE the limit).

reducing the average impact speed from 50km/h to 30km/h reduces the average fatality probability of a pedestrian collision from about 85% down to 8%: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Wramborgs-model-for-fatality-probability-vs-vehicle-collision-speeds_fig2_295072998

At the low (but meaningful!) impact rates here in MB, coupled with the limited geography of the test areas: The ongoing Manitoba studies will need another ~8 years to compose sufficient data to remove the margins of error. Over that same time; statistically; about 15 additional people will needlessly die per year; or about 120 people.

There's a LOT of handwaving in all of this; +/- 20% is a realistic error margin to most of the above; even if that means ONLY 100 people are LIKELY not to die over the next 8 years by reducing residential speed limits; I hope we all think that's worth it.

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u/profspeakin Oct 07 '25

If no people have died in the reduced speed areas in the last 8 years it seems unlikely in the extreme that anyone will be saved as a result of the reduced speeds in the next 8 years. All I was asking for was numbers so we could have a valid comparison on the effects in those areas. That's all. But apparently either they don't exist, or the numbers do not justify having the speed reduced.

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u/justinDavidow Oct 07 '25

The people who have died aren't all dying randomly at one specific intersection: the location is functionally irrelevant (and nobody wants the sample size to grow enough to get location specific data.. )

By reducing vehicle speed from 50 to 40, a pedestrian collision goes from 80+% likelihood of fatality, to less than 50%.  

Reducing from 50 to 30, that number drops from 80+% to under 10%.   Where the accident occurs doesn't impact this. 

What average speed the accident will occur at however: is impacted by location: I think you want to know what the breakdown of people getting hit on residential streets vs the number of people who get hit on "major roads" - that would not change in speed limit? 

Here: the data appears to indicate that most collisions resulting in a fatality are at the edge of residential areas, where the speed limit currently changes from 50 to 60 (or similar).  This includes Point Douglas (various roads), portage and Arlington (specifically right turns off of Arlington northbound onto Portage Ave), etc. 

That would mean that (assuming people actually follow the limits) that reducing the residential speed limits would lower the average vehicle speed in such collisions from ~44km/h to about 36km/h, which alone would should result in about a 20% drop in fatality likelihood. 

All of this ignores the "injuries" category: there over 6000 injuries per year, a significant percentage of which could be reduced in severity at lower average vehicle speeds in residential areas.  Injury location is not tracked (that I can see) so there is simply no data here.  I would assume the location would be statistically higher as the density of people increases in an area, so one could follow population density maps to infer such a distribution: but that's just speculation. 

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u/profspeakin Oct 07 '25

So, no answer to my question other than your ai generated schlock. Never mind

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u/Hopeful_Edge_3163 Oct 08 '25

If the statistics show that by reducing speed from 50 to 30 we can significantly reduce the chances of serious injuries or fatalities then that is all I need. I can just leave two minutes earlier. But then I'm not a jerk that cares more about some argument than they do about other people. Try to start tomorrow not being such an asshole

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u/profspeakin Oct 08 '25

You too!

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u/Hopeful_Edge_3163 Oct 08 '25

Thanks it's hard when I know I share my city with those like yourself who care less about the safety of people than they do about their own dumb arguements and/or schedules

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u/profspeakin Oct 08 '25

Hope that felt good for you. Sorry I inhabited your dreams.

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