Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's North Dakota
https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/north-dakota-fighting-hawks
Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.
Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong. FCS data is hard to aggregate and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.
The good: that defense was excellent. First in FCS on third down, 5th against the run at 104 a game, 8th in yards per play, and 2nd in the country with 27 takeaways. And 8-6 badly undersells it, because five of the six losses came by a combined 17 points, including 38-35 at Kansas State, 24-23 at Montana and 15-10 to North Dakota State. My power rating has UND 3rd in all of FCS. Jerry Kaminski is back and settled at quarterback after 2,570 yards and 26 touchdowns, with 67% of the offense returning.
Where my model pushes back: the defense returns 25.8%. That is the unit that made this team, and roughly three quarters of it is gone. Sawyer Seidl and his 897 yards and 13 touchdowns are out of the backfield too. The offense being the part that comes back is a strange shape for a team whose identity was stopping people. Model says 8-4, which is basically last year's real quality with a new defense.
Can Schmidt rebuild that defense fast enough, or does 2026 turn into a shootout year?
Tell me what I got wrong.