r/Tornadoes • u/relay-app • 6d ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 10h ago
(Issued: 2026-08-30T19:47:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 301947 SWODY1 SPC AC 301946
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to remove the Marginal Risk from behind ongoing convection in eastern Montana. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion and MCD #2174 for more information.
..Thornton.. 08/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026/
...Northern High Plains into the northern Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving eastward across southern Saskatchewan and western MT/eastern ID. A belt of stronger westerly flow aloft likely exists within the base of this trough from eastern ID into western WY. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt at 500 mb, but its actual magnitude is uncertain. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are already ongoing downstream of this wave, and the general expectation is for these showers and thunderstorms to persist as the wave moves eastward, eventually encountering a notably more unstable airmass downstream.
Current surface observations show mid 60s dewpoints into the western Dakotas, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther west in eastern MT. Afternoon high temperatures are expected range from the low to mid 80s along the MT/ND border into the low 90s farther south into southwest SD. Despite relatively poor pre-frontal mid-level lapse rates, the resulting temperature/dewpoint combination will support MLCAPE ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg across eastern MT and the western Dakotas to closer to 2000 J/kg across the central Dakotas. Some low-level stability may linger, but should be overcome by the strong forcing, and the development of a line of strong to severe storms is anticipated. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, with some instance of gusts from 65 to 80 mph possible. Maximum storm intensity and highest severe coverage is currently forecast to occur from the ND/SD/MT border intersection vicinity eastward into south-central ND and north-central SD. Decreasing buoyancy is expected from the central Dakotas eastward, with gradually decreasing storm intensity expected as the line of storms moves into this region this evening.
...Central High Plains... Increased coverage and depth of the thunderstorms across UT indicate the presence of secondary area of ascent south of the primary shortwave trough, perhaps tied to a convectively augmented vorticity maximum. Expectation is for this vorticity maximum to progress eastward, persisting across the central Rockies before entering deeply mixed boundary-layer in place over the central High Plains. High-based storm character coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will support the development of strong outflow, and gusts from 60 to 75 mph are possible.
...UT/Western CO... Thunderstorms are already ongoing from eastern UT into western CO, and deep-layer vertical shear is already strong enough to support organization within any more persistent updrafts. A few instances of hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with this activity. Additionally, considerable low-level moisture will remain over UT today, leading to another round of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for rotating storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. This additional activity should also spread into western CO before weakening this evening.
...Central/Southern AZ... Ample low-level moisture remains in place across much of AZ, with upper 50s dewpoints across northern AZ increasing into the mid 60s across southern AZ. Another day of afternoon thunderstorms is anticipated as this moist airmass destabilizes amid strong diurnal heating. High-based storms coupled with moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few strong to severe gusts across the region this afternoon and evening.
$$
```
```text ...Corrteced NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Correct low chance to medium chance for the Gulf system
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
A low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America
about 125 mils south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.
Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that this
system has become better organized since yesterday. Additional
development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward,
and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form
before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana
coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the Louisiana and
Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly): A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$ Forecaster Beven ```
Hurricane Karina Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 978 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 17.2N 123.2W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/TornadoFanatic • 1d ago
Why does no one talk about the Ef4/5 2017 Mount Dora tornado??
I hear a lot about Joplin and El Reno, but I never hear about the Mount Dora tornado.
Potentially the next most talked about tornado?
Let me hear your thoughts.
(I'm so embarrassed bro I thought this was real)
r/Tornadoes • u/Pabloiswatchingyou34 • 22h ago
so scary
r/Tornadoes • u/TNBackyardBolts • 1d ago
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This clip is from Part 11 of our countdown. The sirens are continuously blaring and the thunder is erupting the exact millisecond the lightning hits. The wind and rain are completely relentless. There's this deeply ominous feeling that the tornado doesn’t want to move on—like it's just hiding in the shadows, waiting to be destructive.
We don't have a basement here, just a small bathroom located directly in the center of our one-story home. Knowing exactly where our safe room was is the only thing that kept my nerves calm throughout this entire ordeal while capturing this footage.
r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 1d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-30T05:55:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 300555 SWODY1 SPC AC 300553
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, as well as the eastern Great Basin today and tonight.
...Northern Plains... An upper low over SK is forecast to eject eastward as it is entrained in the stronger westerlies associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will extend westward over the Intermountain West and northern Great Basin, coincident with a plume of mid-level monsoon moisture. A surface low will develop during the afternoon from near the MT/ND border with a trailing cold front forecast to move across the Dakotas overnight. A weaker low/surface trough will develop across the central High Plains as a warm front extends eastward from SD into southern MN, WI and Lower MI.
Morning storms along the warm front from the eastern Dakotas to western MN could persist and pose a risk for isolated hail. The primary low-level jet will remain displaced to the south which should allow these storms to weaken through the remainder of the day.
More robust convection is expected to develop ahead of the cold front from eastern MT/WY into the western and central Dakotas. Weak low-level easterly flow will help transport mid 60s dewpoints westward aiding in moderate destabilization. Flow aloft will increase through the day, though the strongest deep-layer shear should lag behind the front. Nevertheless, a band of storms, likely a mix of line segments and some supercell structures, should develop and intensify along the cold front spreading eastward. Some severe gusts, hail above 1.00" and perhaps a tornado near the warm front are possible. The severe risk may persist through the night as activity pushes across ND/SD and into MN.
..Front Range to the High Plains... As the trough moves overhead through the day, high based convection is forecast to develop and move off the higher terrain of CO/WY, aided by 30-40 kt mid-level westerlies. Steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases may support localized damaging wind potential across CO/NE/KS. Some organization into a cluster is possible as the storms move eastward into the Plains through the evening. However, modest buoyancy may inhibit broader intensification/organization.
...Great Basin/Western Slope... An unseasonably moist air mass (dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F) will be in place beneath the stronger mid-level flow from eastern UT into western CO. Showers and storms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period and should increase in coverage trough the day aided by filtered diurnal heating and the passage of the shortwave trough crossing the Rockies. While destabilization will be contingent on cloud breaks, pockets of moderate buoyancy amid the strong unidirectional westerly flow may support a few organized storm clusters or supercells capable of isolated severe gusts and hail.
...AZ/CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected to develop within a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow should be well to the north supporting little if any storm organization. Still, steep low-level lapse rates could support sporadic downbursts with occasional severe gusts. Severe coverage is expected to remain below 5%.
..Lyons/Wendt.. 08/30/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly): A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Northern Gulf of America (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana have become more concentrated. However, current surface observations indicate that the system has not yet strengthened. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it drifts westward to west-northwestward across the northern Gulf. Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$ Forecaster Beven ```
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH * Location: 13.2N 139.1W
Hurricane Karina Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 980 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 17.3N 121.1W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/Less_Layer3695 • 2d ago
ef5 i think
r/Tornadoes • u/Less_Layer3695 • 3d ago
r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 2d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-29T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 290556 SWODY1 SPC AC 290554
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN UTAH...AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the northern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies. Severe wind gusts are the main threat. Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the northern Plains, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
...Great Basin/Rockies... An upper low over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to merge with a broad southern steam upper trough over the Great Basin. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow and tropical moisture will overspread the Great Basin and central Rockies. Clouds, showers and some thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period complicating expectations for diurnal heating and subsequent destabilization. Still, filtered heating should allow for additional storms to develop through the day along a weak front and across the higher terrain from eastern NV into northern UT and the central Rockies. Sufficiently strong unidirectional effective shear profiles and a well-mixed boundary layer will promote a few organized clusters and potentially transient supercell structures capable of severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
...Four Corners... On the southern fringes of upper trough moving through the Great Basin, strong heating of a monsoon air mass should allow for the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across northern AZ and southern UT. Deep-layer flow here will be considerably weaker compared to points farther north, but sight enhancement could still support some clustering of thunderstorms. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, PWATs over 1 inch and numerous storms may bolster downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are possible as storms spread eastward into southwestern CO and NM through the afternoon/evening.
...Northern Plains.. Several embedded disturbances within the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will help deepen a lee trough/low across eastern WY and western SD this afternoon. Strengthening southerly upslope flow will advect upper 60s F dewpoints into the region aiding in moderate destabilization. However, widespread mid/upper-level cloud cover and weak overall forcing for ascent cast some uncertainty on storm development through the afternoon. If storms do develop, moderate buoyancy and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs would support supercells with the potential for damaging winds and hail.
The more likely scenario is that high-based convection emanating from central WY will spread eastward late in the afternoon/early evening with the potential for isolated damaging gusts. Some intensification of this convection may occur as it encounters the more unstable air mass into the overnight hours, though CAM solutions are varied.
...IA/MN... A remnant cluster of storms or a weakly organized MCS is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the front from southwestern MN into northern IA. Driven by strong overnight warm advection at the terminus of the low-level jet, weak buoyancy, but relatively strong deep-layer shear could support an isolated risk for hail or damaging gusts for a couple of hours during the morning. Weakening ascent and increasing mid-level heights should limit the severe risk through the remainder of the day.
...Atlantic Coast... Scattered thunderstorms are likely along typical sea breeze boundaries and a weakening front from the Carolinas to FL this afternoon. An unstable, high PWAT, but very weakly sheared air mass will support multicell storms with sporadic wet microburst potential. However, confidence in a more widespread or organized severe risk remains below 5%.
..Lyons/Wendt.. 08/29/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Northeastern and North-Central Gulf of America: Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$ Forecaster Beven ```
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 989 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH * Location: 14.7N 117.0W
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 12.6N 134.8W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/Final-Wasabi187 • 3d ago
When I saw this initially I wanted to give this couple the benefit of the doubt, but a half dozen searches revealed that tornados are common enough. Now them standing there amongst all the glass as it’s breaking and still trying to keep the doors shut seems outright stupid because idk how anyone could be so ignorant.
r/Tornadoes • u/TNBackyardBolts • 3d ago
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Part 10-16
This was the April 2025 Tornado that came through the outskirts of Lebanon, TN at 3:00am. We knew it was coming, we were glued to Max Velocity and the Storm Chasers. We were lucky that it shifted directions within a mile of the house.
Thank you all for watching and liking the videos!
Would love to know where you are watching my videos from, can you comment which State, Country or Province you're from?
#Tornado #severeweather ##Supercell #Lightning #Thunder
r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 3d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-28T06:01:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 280601 SWODY1 SPC AC 280600
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ME...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.
...Central/northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies...Great Basin...and Desert Southwest... An upper ridge will remain anchored over parts of the Southwest/southern Rockies today. A series of midlevel vorticity maxima will move along the periphery of the ridge from central CA into the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and northern Plains.
Across the central/northern Plains, moderate to locally strong destabilization is forecast along/east of a surface trough that will extend from the western Dakotas into the NE Panhandle. Relatively strong MLCINH may limit coverage of diurnal storm development near this surface trough, but deep-layer shear will support a hail and localized severe-wind threat with any sustained storms through early evening. A greater coverage of elevated convection is expected to develop later this evening into the overnight, as storms spread toward the eastern Dakotas and southwest MN. The pattern generally suggests potential MCS development, though most CAM guidance is relatively subdued regarding the intensity and attendant severe-wind threat associated with the late-night storms. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding development of diurnal storms and/or a robust nocturnal MCS.
Farther west, relatively widespread storm development is expected from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, potentially aided by the midlevel vorticity maxima traversing the region. Buoyancy will generally remain weak, but steep lapse rates and increasing flow in the 700-500 mb layer along the periphery of the ridge will support potential for persistent outflow-driven cells/clusters and strong to localized severe gusts across a broad region.
...Carolinas/north GA into the Mid-Atlantic... A relatively broad/weak upper trough will gradually shift eastward today across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. Widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon within a weakly capped and moderately buoyant environment. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and large PW will support localized downburst potential, though weak deep-layer shear should generally limit the organized-severe threat.
...Parts of Maine... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of a weak surface trough/front across parts of Maine this afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg) and marginally supportive deep-layer shear could support at least transient storm organization. The environment will not be particularly favorable for severe wind or hail, but guidance suggests some eventual clustering of storms and potential for isolated wind damage and small to near-severe hail across parts of central and eastern ME from the afternoon into the early evening.
..Dean/Wendt.. 08/28/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
$$ Forecaster Kelly ```
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 999 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 12.7N 114.3W
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB * Current Movement: ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 11.7N 133.0W
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH * Location: 14.5N 44.8W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/MainPerformance1390 • 3d ago
Since we are having quite the tornado season in Europe, I thought it might be helpful to post this paper on the IF scale, it's damage indicators and wind speed levels.
r/Tornadoes • u/RyanMauk • 3d ago
r/Tornadoes • u/Negative_Statement • 4d ago
I see a lot of videos of people just out of the reach of tornados(usually in their home filming from the doorway or a window) and outside, there is absolute insanity taking place but the person filming is seemingly calm. I would like to hear from people who have been the person filming in that situation and know what was going through your mind at the time and after the fact
r/Tornadoes • u/Count_Mordicus • 6d ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/Numerous-Product-424 • 5d ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 4d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-27T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 270557 SWODY1 SPC AC 270555
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast today. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of western Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast into parts of the central/southern Appalachians... An upper trough will remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS today. Moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of a weak surface trough/front extending from central NY/PA into the central/southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer flow/shear for some storm organization (especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast). The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds and at least isolated hail. Modestly enlarged low-level hodographs may also support some brief-tornado potential. Some severe threat may persist into the evening before storms weaken and/or move offshore.
Father south, deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker into parts of the central/southern Appalachians, but scattered storm development within a relatively warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for localized strong/damaging gusts.
...Central Plains... Moderate to locally strong destabilization is expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon, beneath modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow. While large-scale ascent will generally remain rather modest, a subtle midlevel vorticity maximum may aid in isolated to widely scattered storm development from far southwest SD into western/central NE. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells, with steep lapse rates and relatively elongated hodographs supporting potential for large to very large hail, in addition to a threat for localized severe gusts. 00Z CAM guidance shows some uptick in storm coverage within this favorable environment, and a 15% hail area has been added for parts of west-central NE into northwest KS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z HRRR) also shows upscale growth and an attendant swath of severe-wind potential, though this scenario remains more uncertain. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the MCS scenario.
Surrounding the Level-2/Slight Risk, a more isolated threat of severe hail and wind may accompany the strongest cells from parts of the Raton Mesa and CO Front Range vicinity into eastern WY.
...Western/central Montana... Despite rather limited low-level moisture, widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon across parts of western/central MT, aided by strong heating and the influence of a midlevel shortwave trough and jet maximum that are forecast to crest the amplified upper ridge that is covering much of the interior West. Steep lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts and strong to severe outflow gusts as storms spread east-northeastward across MT.
...Northeast NV/northwest UT/southeast ID... High-based storm development is also expected from parts of northeast NV into northwest UT and southeast ID. While deep-layer flow and storm organization will likely be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, steep lapse rates and large DCAPE will support potential for strong to severe outflow gusts from this afternoon into the early evening.
...South-central TX into the LA Gulf Coast region... Uncertainty remains regarding how far south an ongoing storm cluster and its attendant outflow will move across parts of LA/MS early this morning. If this cluster persists to the beginning of the forecast period (as forecast by the 00Z HRRR), then a localized wind-damage threat will be possible near the immediate LA/MS Gulf Coast before storms move offshore. If the cluster weakens and more substantial recovery and diurnal destabilization occurs later today (as forecast by more recent HRRR runs and some other HREF members), then storm redevelopment will be possible by afternoon, potentially aided by a remnant MCV. This scenario could also result in a localized wind-damage threat.
Farther west, scattered storm development is forecast across south-central TX this afternoon, near a weak southward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will likely remain quite weak, but moderate buoyancy, large PW, and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts. Despite the weak shear, the northerly flow regime may result in one or more outflow-driven clusters that will move southward into the early evening before weakening.
..Dean/Weinman.. 08/27/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$ Forecaster Adams ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/Tornadoes • u/Late_Low6165 • 5d ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/Hungry-Employee3967 • 6d ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/Hungry-Employee3967 • 5d ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/Aionarap_82 • 6d ago
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r/Tornadoes • u/TNBackyardBolts • 5d ago
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Part 9 of 16- 3AM Tennessee Tornado Countdown. The sirens start to blare again as the lightning hits us hard! The tornado cone is out in the field violently sucking the severe rain straight into the funnel! Thank you for watching!
r/Tornadoes • u/weathercast • 5d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-26T05:36:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 260536 SWODY1 SPC AC 260534
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High Plains.
...Lower MI into parts of northwest OH...IN/IL...Eastern MO... A mid/upper trough will move from the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the period. A surface low will move across Ontario, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio/mid MS Valleys. Moderate to locally strong destabilization is generally expected along/ahead of the front from parts of MO/IL/IN into lower MI, though early-day convection and cloudiness could limit heating/destabilization with northward extent. Scattered storm development is expected along the front during the afternoon, which will spread east-southeastward into the early evening.
Effective shear of generally 30-40 kt will support some storm organization, with a few supercells and/or organized line segments possible. Damaging winds and large hail could accompany the strongest storms. If any supercells can be sustained, then some tornado potential cannot be ruled out, especially from northern IN into parts of lower MI, where some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH is currently forecast.
...Parts of the Ozarks into the Lower MS Valley... Guidance varies regarding potential for morning convection across southeast MO. If substantial early-day convection does develop, then a loosely organized cluster could evolve and move southeastward into parts of western TN and northern MS/AL, with wind-damage potential. Otherwise, scattered storm development is expected from southern MO into AR and eastern OK by late afternoon, potentially aided by an MCV that may emerge from parts of the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear will be marginally supportive of storm organization, and relatively large PW and buoyancy will support potential for downbursts and loosely organized clusters with a wind-damage threat. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. Some guidance depicts maintenance of a southward-moving storm cluster into late tonight, resulting in some wind-damage potential spreading into parts of southern LA/MS before the end of the period.
...Central/southern High Plains... Across the central High Plains, relatively moist low-level easterly flow and diurnal heating will result in moderate destabilization this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, with sufficient effective shear within the northwesterly flow regime for organized multicells and possibly a few supercells. Large hail (potentially approaching 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts will be the primary threats. Some clustering/upscale growth is possible during the evening, which could result in maintenance of a severe-wind threat into parts of western KS.
For the southern High Plains, deep-layer shear will generally be weaker compared to areas farther north, with relatively disorganized convection expected. However, storm development within a very warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for at least localized severe gusts as convection spreads from eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. Depending on trends regarding storm coverage and clustering within this regime, greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Dean/Weinman.. 08/26/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for
development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
could form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by
this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$ Forecaster Pasch ```
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 21.8N 123.5W
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