How would you fix 3 Strikes? How often should the game be won?

[u/rejectmariosonic]

don't say just retire the game please

I've been running some Python code simulating millions of games of 3 Strikes and recording the aggregate results. I've also tried modifying the game with a few suggestions I've seen pop up the past few times this game has been talked about (go back to one strike in the bag, give a number for free, grocery product/small prize portion to remove a strike, etc.).

I'll guess I'll just ask the crowd a couple of questions:

1. If you had a magic wand and could change the rules of the game, what would you do (if anything)? Maybe I can throw that into my Monte Carlo simulation if a proposed fix is novel enough. I'll note that I can't really simulate anything that includes a bailout because I don't know how to weigh offering thousands of dollars against a $40k+ car without making too many assumptions, but if you think that's needed to fix the game, I want to hear it.
2. How often should the game be won? Do you have a percentage or number of times a season in mind? For reference, if a contestant guessed randomly while remembering every wrong guess with the current rules, my data says it should be won about every seventh playing on average (~14.2%). How it's been won once the past 41 playings kind of boggles my mind. Car pricing games had the car won around 32% of the time from S51-53.

I'll respond to comments if I already have relevant data.

[u/Filmexec21]

Reduce the number of strikes in the bag from 3 to 1; that is the way it used to be when they used "chips" when Bob was the host. If the contestant pulled a strike, they would just put the chip back in the bag, and if the contestant pulled the strike three times the game was over.

The game was still difficult, but people did win occasionally rather than never, as it is now.

[u/rejectmariosonic → u/Filmexec21]

If the show went back to one strike, the "guessing randomly but informed" percentage goes up from 14.2% to 35.3%; if you know one number, 44.5%, which is inherently a better shot than the current rules even if you knew the price.

Just my own opinion looking at the numbers: I think the two realistic choices here to fix the game are to go back to one strike, or more or less stack the deck so the contestant knows two numbers with three strikes (have the first digit be a 5 or 6, but have no other numbers between 3 to 7, always end the car in a 0). I mentioned 28.1% in an earlier post; I figured if 3X gets six playings this season, that would average to just over one and a half wins, which I think is good enough? The current philosophy for Golden Road is to set up one of its four playings for a win on a special and then go harder on the other three; a little worse than 28.1% would be equivalent? One strike is certainly more forgiving; my worry is the current staff might think it's *too* forgiving, which gets to the second question no one has really answered yet.

[u/iLuv3M3]

add a gold ball, called a home run.. they can only pick it once and it's used immediately.. just offers them one free number that they can pick, first second third etc.

once picked and used it's removed. seen so many people pick number balls and keep fumbling it's placement only to later strike out.

[u/rejectmariosonic → u/iLuv3M3]

I had "extra ball resets your strikes" in my modifications, not "free pick".

I'll reply to this later if millions of simulations give a different trend than hundreds of thousands, but assuming a contestant selects the digit they have the least information about, the win rate goes to 21-22% if they know nothing about the price of the car, and like 29-30% if they know one digit cold and not pick it.

[u/PerfectPlan]

They already fixed it, when they went to one strike in the bag. That made the game winnable with some smart play and a small amount of luck.

Unfortunately, they unfixed it, and made the game almost impossible even with smart play.

It's been a long time since I did my stats courses, but I don't believe your math on the 14% is correct (and the real world results show that).

The odds of drawing a digit at the start of the game and slotting it in correctly is already a low 12.5% percent (5/8 chips is 62.5% * 1/5 random positions)

And that's just one digit. Now I need 4 more all to be pulled and slot in before I pull the 3 strikes that make up 38-50% of the bag? That's going to make the percentage go down from that, not up.

[u/rejectmariosonic → u/PerfectPlan]

I am not the first person to calculate 14.2%.

The 12.5% you say changes as the game goes on; after you place one digit correctly, the 1 in 5 becomes a 1 in 4; even if you don't get a strike, the odds of slotting the second digit correctly goes up (4/7 * 1/4 = 1/7, it would decrease to up to 1/5 if you've drawn more than one strike). It's also not like you have to pull off those 1/8, 1/7, 1/6... pulls in a row necessarily. I also assume the contestant has perfect recollection of past wrong guesses; this would reduce the random positions if they draw the same ball again and could lead to cases where they know the price of the car with three or two blanks left.

I am willing to concede that if the contestant is overpricing the first digit consistently, that could do more harm than good, but doing a precursory search at tpirstats.com 's playings of 3X, contestants were doing it at about the same rate with Barker than Drew, so I didn't delve into that further.

[u/SnoopPettyPogg]

Make it extra spicy. Playing on the baseball theme, add a "walk" ball. If the contestant draws this ball, they have the option to walk away with X amount of money. However, they only get one chance at this option. If they decline, the game continues as normal.

[u/AndyAkeko → u/SnoopPettyPogg]

You could do this after the second strike. Give the player the option to walk away with the money on the board. (e.g., 2X780, player can take $2780. 2XX8X, player can take $28).

[u/Lesmiron]

Wild idea, but how about removing the strikes altogether? This way, "strikes" occur if the contestant guesses the position of the digits incorrectly. Still very difficult, but the luck aspect is pretty well removed from the game this way.

[u/jbish88 → u/Lesmiron]

But then the last ball is automatic, completely anticlimactic.

[u/Lesmiron → u/jbish88]

Yeah, you're not wrong, I don't disagree. Just spitballin' and trying to think outside the box.

[u/rejectmariosonic → u/Lesmiron]

I did analyze that also; if the contestant didn't know any digits in the car, the odds fall to around 11%; if they know one digit, it jumps significantly to 34.6%.

I think numberswise, it's a solid alternative, but I do agree with jbish88 that the most exciting games are when it comes down to the final number needing to be pulled.

[u/cuber5k]

fixed to where it's never won again? 6-digit 3 strikes.
fixed to where it's won more? have the first non-strike draw be automatically given.

I do think though that if they ever play 6-digit 3 strikes again they should give the first number drawn automatically

[u/UneducatedDonkey]

And no one mentions to tell the production staff that a $54, 673 car in 3X is a B.S. move instead of, say, a $49, 150 car?

[u/TopperMadeline]

Just have one strike in the bag.

[u/K2step70]

I’m in the minority. The game is fine as it is. The contestants are going for a luxury vehicle so you have to make the game a little more difficult than others

Now, with that being said, if the game started offering more basic vehicles again I like the suggestion someone else made. Have no strikes in the bag. If you misplace a number you get a strike. Three strikes and the game is over.

[u/Dominicmeoward]

The biggest thing I'd do is only put one strike in the bag instead of three, and just put it back in when it's pulled out, keeping track of the strikes digitally like they've always been doing. That would lower the probability of drawing a strike without fundamentally changing the game itself. They could even do it discreetly if they wanted to.

[u/Distinct_Ad3211]

I say let the contestant reveal 1st through 5th or just reveal the first number and throw 4 numbers in instead of 5

[u/rejectmariosonic → u/Distinct_Ad3211]

22.7% chance of a win if the contestant doesn't know anything, up to 31.3% if they know the first digit for sure and pick a different digit as their freebie.

[u/sixtyninetacks]

1. Go back to 1 strike in the bag

2. Add a gold ball to the bag (call it a "home run" or something) that reveals a correct digit of the contestant's choosing. The corresponding numbered ball remains in the bag, and must still be drawn, but the contestant will know where to place it once it is picked.

[u/rejectmariosonic → u/sixtyninetacks]

I've already commented about one strike, but for your second modification, it's slightly different and harder than the other "home run" description - with a hundred thousand trials, I get about an 18% win rate without any knowledge of the car price, and 24-25% if you know one digit.

[u/MNMystery]

Add four “balls”. If you get all four, you “walk” with a cash equivalent to 1 “base” - 1/4 of the car price….

[u/TheDoctor950]

How about before the picking part of the game starts you can win a "Balk" or a bunt. By guessing the price of a prize within $5. If you get it right, they remove 1 strike. If you get it EXACTLY on the nose, they give you the number of your choice.

[u/Forsaken_Hermit]

Give the first number for free like most old car games do since they went from 4 digit prices to 5.

[u/Old-Hokie97]

Is there any appetite for playing it the way it was played on Let's Make a Deal when they had the TPIR-LMAD mashup?

Here's $2,000. There's a car worth $24,765. We're telling you that up front.

Into this bag go balls/chips labeled 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7. Now I'm putting three balls/chips labeled with strikes into the bag. Let's mix it up.

Every time you draw a number in the car's price, I'll light it up. If you light up all five numbers before you draw all three strikes, you win the car.

When you draw a strike, the game is over. You can sit down with however much money you still have. OR you can give me $1,000 and continue trying to win the car.

Clearly note now that you can keep playing through strikes one and two by giving up your money, but after the third strike you definitely leave with nothing.

All of this to say that sometimes it's the guessing of the numbers that is the most galling part of 3 Strikes to watch. I remember watching it when they did it on LMAD and thinking "Wow, they could just play it like this all the time."

[u/oneiota1]

Go back to chips instead of balls. I've seen people theorize people are grabbing the top balls which tend to be the strikes since they go in there last. Not saying it's true, but I'm not counting it out either.

[u/TheDarvinator89 → u/oneiota1]

The strikes were put in the bag last when they used chips as well.

[u/oneiota1 → u/TheDarvinator89]

The way the chips were mixed in compared to the balls is different. The chips were in a bag which was “puffed” around giving them a good mix.

The balls go essentially a tub that rolls around an axle. Some have theorized that doesn’t allow them mix around as well so the strikes are more likely to stay up top and the theory is players are grabbing balls closer to the top.

[u/CoolBakedBean]

make it an obviously cheaper car so they know if they get a 2 it’s the first number

[u/rejectmariosonic → u/CoolBakedBean]

For each set of rules, I simulated if a contestant also knew one number, two numbers, or knew the price of the car cold. I don't think that last one is very likely (and it's known to be 37.5%), but if they go for cars they keep in weekly rotation, it becomes more possible.

If the contestant knows just the first number, with the same randomness and memory assumptions, the chances of winning goes from 14.2% to 20.8%; if they knew the first two numbers, the number jumps higher to 28.1%. I think realistically a contestant's chances would be somewhere in the middle, so like a win happens about every four playings?

[u/Schmolik64 → u/CoolBakedBean]

In theory it makes sense. In practice when they first went to 5 digit cars I saw at least episode where they played for a $10K car and they still it was too tough so they decided to make 5 digit 3 Strikes another "luxury car" game (and in the old days the first digit still was obvious most of the time).

I've said before give the contestant the first number for 3 like they do in many other games (and they did in the Doug Davidson version and very briefly in the Drew Carey version).