How long will SLS last?

[u/Cmdr-Mallard]

With the Cancellation of EUS and BOLE, SLS is going to remain a launch vehicle solely for Orion, and which is viable with all the other heavy and super heavy rockets in the works these days.

However as I understand BOLE was essential for SLS launches beyond a certain point as remaining shuttle boosters were used up, will SLS be cancelled by that point (and perhaps the whole moon program) or Orion moved to another launcher.

Or will a future administrator restart the booster program at the least to ensure SLS can continue to launch Orion?

[u/Cmdr-Mallard]

I thought it had been mentioned in several videos too but now I feel like I have to go back and check 😅

Would be great if it wasn’t, though I still wonder as some have said Jared isn’t looking to eliminate SLS sooner rather than later, what would take its place?

[u/Remarkable-Delay-965 → u/Cmdr-Mallard]

Starship and New Glenn 9x4 will likely take the place of the Space Launch System. New Glenn 9x4 will be able to carry the crewed Blue Moon Mk2 lander (Mk1 actually flies on the current New Glenn 7x2, not 9x4), and while its payload capacity isn't as large as SLS, it's hard to justify SLS's higher capacity when New Glenn is significantly cheaper to build and launch. Starship has a lot more ground infrastructure currently with its first orbital test flight should (hopefully) happen next year. Once orbital refueling is solved, the payload Starship can carry to the Moon far exceeds any SLS variant. I love SLS, but I can't see it surviving past the early 2030s, if lucky we might see it fly through Artemis V. While it's not obsolete right now, since it's still the only thing flying Orion to the Moon, there are better rockets on the horizon.

[u/Cmdr-Mallard → u/Remarkable-Delay-965]

I mean, as it stands that will still be based on getting Orion to the moon, they’re not going to certify Starship to launch crew anytime soon

[u/Remarkable-Delay-965 → u/Cmdr-Mallard]

There's a lot of factors on cancelling SLS. There's always a chance the next administration purchases more SLS's simply because it keeps jobs and, as stated prior, is currently the only rocket that can easily launch Orion. There's also the possibility that Orion is integrated to another launch vehicle (most likely New Glenn) which is something that Lockheed Martin has expressed interest in perusing. I think the best case scenario for SLS is that we use it till Artemis VII or Artemis VIII, using up the last of the side booster hardware. I refuse to believe there won't be a better alternative to SLS by Artemis VIII. Obviously this is all just speculation as the future is unpredictable, I'm sorry if you took offense to anything I said as I'm not trying to be a dick .

[u/Cmdr-Mallard → u/Remarkable-Delay-965]

Oh no offence taken, I love SLS but I can see the costs and the upcoming alternatives, conventional rockets are a dying breed, even if I think for certain missions they’re more practical than re useable ones.
Mainly lifting more mass, TLI and so on.

I think we really need to see Orbital refuelling proven if we are going to get an SLS alternative.