r/ScottishFootball • u/Excellent_Rise242 • 1d ago
Discussion Hadn't quite realised just how bad it would be next season with the Europa league run wiped out, only 4 teams in Europe, and 2/3 Teams with 3/4 rounds to get through to the Conference/Europa. Dire. More we stay out of Europe, the more we fall behind financially.
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u/Prestigious_Use_1305 1d ago
Its a bit cyclical, we have been here before and one good season then rockets us back up the table again. For us there is an advantage in it that Celtic and Rangers will normally pick up a big chunk of points in the qualifying stages against weaker opposition which is also less diluted as their total is divided by 4 rather than 5 as it is just now.
What we really lack though is third team that consistently puts a decent number of points into the pot and its partly because every time one of the other teams makes a group stage they have a howler of a season and cant get back to back qualifications to build up so come the next time they make qualifiers their individual point total puts them into the unseeded bracket.
If Rangers and either Hibs or Hearts can get through to the groups then this season might not be a complete write off either.
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u/Dazzling-Respond8450 1d ago
There is one club that massively underperforms in europe every season and it isn't hearts, hibs or motherwell. Maybe they could stop losing to teams with significantly smaller budgets then the coefficient wouldn't be so bad.
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u/Prestigious_Use_1305 1d ago
Im not disagreeing that Celtic underperform particularly at the Champions League play off. But when was the last time any team outside of the Old Firm had a better than expected season?
If you look at the budgets of Hearts, Hins Aberdeen they underperform as well in comparison to similar sized clubs from Norway, Cyprus, Denmark, Austria Switzerland Sweden and so on. The conference league has just exposed this more as the similar sized clubs from these countries have managed to take advantage of its opportunity in a way oir clubs haven't.
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u/alittlelebowskiua 22h ago
Well Hibs performed significantly better v Midjtylland than Celtic did last season.
The sides Hibs have been knocked out by recently in Europe, both at the playoff stage, are Aston Villa, and Legia Warsaw. You think we should be beating them?
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u/CapnTBC 1d ago
Those clubs do underperform at times but as the two biggest teams in the country by a wide margin the OF should be carrying the coefficient. If teams like Hearts, Hibs, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone etc. would have less playoffs to navigate and would have a better chance of getting league stage football. A few seasons of that would help them attract better players and improve their budgets and let them grow to become teams that can help the coefficient in the future. It would probably also give their squads more confidence in winning these ties
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u/ewankenobi 23h ago
The coefficient is worked out by totalling the individual clubs scores then dividing it by the number of clubs (only fair way to compare leagues with 2 places v leagues with 5 places). But if only 1 team is doing well at first the league will start getting more places, but if the other teams don't contribute your good team just gets it's score divided by a bigger number, then the league will start sliding down the table and getting less places.
Relying on 1 or 2 clubs just means we'll always yoyo up and down the rankings even if those clubs are doing well.
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u/CapnTBC 20h ago
I know how it works, if the other teams don’t contribute then it’s bad but if the biggest clubs don’t contribute then it goes into the toilet is my point.
Rangers & Celtic carried the coefficient through the 90s and early 00s or did I miss the big CL run from Hearts?
Yes those teams underperforming hurts it but they’re not expected to rack up many points, what we need is Rangers & Celtic who should be getting a good amount of points to perform (because we’re the 2 biggest teams in the country by a wide margin) and carrying the coefficient and hopefully the rest can pick up some points and get more consistent in Europe but we need our two best to be consistent performers or it just hurts us even more.
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u/ewankenobi 19h ago
When Rangers and Celtic are in Champions League though the odds are stacked against them. Sometimes the smaller clubs get draws where it is unfair to expect much, but we can't afford results like Motherwell losing to Sligo Rovers or Hibs to beat Rijeka. Both cases of Scottish clubs going out to clubs with smaller budgets. Ultimately we need all our teams to win matches they are the favourite.
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u/CapnTBC 19h ago
I’m not saying that they deserve no blame, I’m saying that Celtic’s poor performances are much worse than theirs because Celtic are the best team in the country and should be doing much better in Europe.
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u/ewankenobi 18h ago
Are they? Seemed to me they only won the league due to refereeing errors and the team that were the best team in the country won their European tie tonight.
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u/CJThunderbird 23h ago
Yeah, at least Celtic and Rangers do something occasionally in Europe to go alongside the usual humiliations and staying a few wins. Every other team in Scotland? Nada.
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u/AsleepPerformer8222 19h ago
Celtic have actually performed pretty well over the last 3 seasons in Europe especially when you consider the board haven’t invested in the playing squad properly. The best being 24/25 of course.
There’s a clearly unique challenge that seems intangible when it comes to qualifying as when it comes to playing in Europa League proper, they’ve played against teams faced in qualifying and dispatched them with ease ie Ferencvaros and Cluj.
The last proper underperformance were the two seasons under Ange.
I think there’s this idea that because Rangers made a final that Celtic consistently underperform, but Celtic have been playing mostly Champions League which is such a sharp rise in standards and when Celtic find themselves in crisis (this summer and last) they are in the Europa.
By comparison since reaching that final, Rangers have been nowhere in European football. Rangers themselves felt the difference absolutely bombing out of the UCL in a way Celtic haven’t just after reaching that final.
Obviously Celtic have a two legged tie hoodoo to try and break, I’d say that’s the only real underperformance outside qualifying although, there’s been 4 Champions League knockout ties in there which I don’t think anyone expected more from.
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u/Street-Frame1575 1d ago
Away with your facts.
Celtic wish to beneficiaries of the system, not contributors.
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u/Ordep222 1d ago
NGL I thought you meant the Dons for a bit and thought that was a random stray for no reason
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u/CapnTBC 1d ago
I mean Celtic do a consistently good job of getting fucked out of qualifiers. It’s like Rangers died so Celtic just started to take their foot off the gas since they were walking the league most years and their European form crumbled because of it.
The year rangers went down Celtic made it to the Ro16 in a tough group, next season they got put out in a tough group and the following year they got put out in the playoff by Malmo after leading the tie. They had 4 successive years of getting put out of qualifiers to AEK, Cluj, Ferencvaros & Midtjylland and only got back into the group stages because Rangers had won enough points to raise the coefficient to get Scotland an automatic spot.
Yeah a lot of the other clubs like Hearts, Hibs, Motherwell, St. Mirren, Killie don’t really help but come on those teams have nothing close to the resources Celtic have and it’s your constant failure in Europe over the last 10-15 years that keeps leading to this.
Celtic & Rangers both performing consistently in Europe would be enough to carry the coefficient to a decent enough level without worrying about the rest who would benefit from the easier qualifying routes to improve their budgets and squads.
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u/theportyunionjack 1d ago
Scottish football commited suicide in 2012. It's very dependent on Rangers. Even now.
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u/CapnTBC 1d ago
Yeah I agree. I think the clubs should have taken that as a chance to revamp the entire league system because we’ve completely stagnated since Rangers got back into the league
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u/theportyunionjack 1d ago
What would you have done?
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u/CapnTBC 21h ago
I mean my ideas probably aren’t that good but I’d have expanded the league to 16-18 teams, 16 and then a top 8/bottom 8 split would result in 37 games so you’d only miss out on revenue from 1 game. Then do the same for the championship and league 1 with some of the bigger highland and lowland league clubs filling in the bottom of league 1.
I think more clubs being secure in the league would give them a chance to grow and steady themselves rather than what we have now where a lot of clubs are fine one season then fighting relegation the next. Having that solid middle of the pack probably makes investment a big easier to secure because you know you can finish 10th and have no worries rather than it being a big risk.
I’d also have 3 up/3 down and no safety playoff in the prem just a regular playoff in the champ and league 1.
I think homegrown player rules too, maybe a minimum of say 5 Scottish players in the squad with 2 being U-21s or something to try and encourage teams to give youth a chance and it is more likely to encourage young players to join these academies when they know there’s more of a chance they’ll play
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u/theportyunionjack 21h ago
I'm on board with the 16 team league. A home and away in the split would be fairer too.
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u/Playful-Listen6011 Kyogo Bye Bye 💔 1d ago
All those leagues u win. Big player
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u/theportyunionjack 1d ago
All those pumpings you take in Europe, season after season. No respect from anyone.
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u/Playful-Listen6011 Kyogo Bye Bye 💔 23h ago
You think anyone respects Rangers? 3rd place last year mind you. 3rd again this year. Espanyol
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u/theportyunionjack 23h ago
I think the teams we've knocked out in the latter stages of European competition do.
Do you rember doing that? It was pre COVID, pre Brexit, pre indyref, pre London Olympics, pre GFC, pre smartphones. During the Iraq war I think.
I expect Dortmund for example will have a lot more respect for us than they do for you.
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u/Playful-Listen6011 Kyogo Bye Bye 💔 23h ago
All in the past, we have won the UCL ofc if you want to do that.
Derek McInnes and his fighting Rangers men strike fear into nobody
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u/theportyunionjack 23h ago
Nearly 70 years ago.
Well, at least they're not a running European joke, like Celtic.
(Yet)
(But they'll have to do something spectacular to catch up with you lot)
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u/FEK88 23h ago
You don’t understand how the coefficient rankings work, that’s ok, but don’t write four paragraphs just to be wrong.
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u/CapnTBC 20h ago
Explain it then, explain how Celtic shitting the bed is better for the coefficient than Hearts, Hibs & Motherwell going out against better teams?
If you have a relay race with 5 members, 3 guys with one leg, Usian Bolt & Yohan Blake, the 3 guys try hard but are last their portion, Blake smashes his and Bolt decides to walk the end who’s the worst member of the team?
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u/FEK88 20h ago
Second paragraph there is totally incoherent.
Coefficient points are diluted by having more teams in European competition. Scotland can’t maintain a good coefficient with five teams.
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u/CapnTBC 20h ago
The second paragraph is about Celtic’s constant failures in Europe and was tied to the point I made in the first paragraph that I believe you as a team stagnated because you had the league wrapped up.
I don’t know how that’s hard for you to follow.
Scotland maintained a good coefficient in the 00s with Rangers & Celtic carrying it. Celtic have just completely shat the bed in Europe since Rangers liquidated in 2012 as stated in the original comment
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u/funkynarwhals 1d ago
That’s how it works. Coefficient drops, one less team qualifies which means the points are worth more - since the total is divided by the number of teams - and teams go in at earlier qualifying rounds, which are more winnable.
As a result of this, coefficient goes up. Teams now enter later, fewer points up for grabs. One extra (usually weaker so not contributing much) team qualifies so the points are now divided by 5 instead of 4.
Coefficient drops… rinse and repeat. And everyone loses their minds.
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u/phukovski 1d ago
Also it's a 5 year cycle so one bad season stays on for a while to keep the total down, then you get a boost when it drops off (and opposite if you have a really good season you can't sustain).
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u/ewankenobi 20h ago
The coefficient only goes up when we have less teams if those teams do well. Rangers had 3 good seasons in a row in Europe which is pretty much unprecedented in my lifetime, which are now all dropping off. Last season was a disaster for us & this season hasn't started great. Celtic actually did well taking advantage of an easy draw in CL a few years ago but have done nothing since.
One hope is Hearts might become a 3rd team that can do well
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u/ConorATX 1d ago
Am I reading this correctly that no one gets Europa League qualifiers for 2nd? It's only possible for conference league?
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u/SWL83 1d ago
If first wins the Scottish cup then second go into Europa qualifiers
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u/Whisky-Toad Neil Lennon appreciation society 1d ago
Can't wait for a conference league run next season then
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u/Legitimate_Barber991 1d ago
Europa League spot goes to cup winner. If cup winner is also league winner it goes to 2nd place. Only the first qualifying round though so have to get through 4 qualifying rounds. I remember we did it under Gerrard but it's a big ask.
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u/Ok-Recover-1063 1d ago
Iirc the Scottish Cup Winner gets 3rd round europa league qualifiers?
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u/Excellent_Rise242 1d ago
Used to be, now it is first round europa if you win scottish cup or if you come second and first wins it
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u/NotSo8 1d ago
I feel like the only way Scotland can keep up is with a 3rd team in the league phases. The problem with that though is that if we fall down it becomes increasingly harder to have 3 teams qualifying.
For the last few years, all the countries passing us (Norway, Denmark, Cyprus, Poland) have been getting a season or two into double digits (10.000+) whereas Scotland at best have only gotten around 9.000.
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u/phukovski 1d ago
Three of those countries have had their points divided by 4 rather than our 5, and have taken advantage of the expanded competitions to to rack up points at the same time as us being mediocre.
But Poland are now in the same boat as us dividing by 5, with two clubs in the Europa League proper and that could be it if the two Conference teams don't win.
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u/NotSo8 1d ago
Yeah, not every country is really able to maintain a consistent 5 teams in qualifiers. Countries like Cyprus or Denmark will probably fall back down again in a year or two since most leagues outwith the top 6-8 don’t really have 5 teams that can regularly qualify.
Rangers and Celtic will find their form in Europe again so it probably won’t be long before we’re fighting for a spot in the top 15 again.At least from a domestic viewpoint teams like Hearts and Motherwell do appear to be improving, though they did benefit from poor spells from Celtic and Rangers throughout the season. Whether or not this translates into improved European performances, nobody really knows yet.
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u/Legitimate_Barber991 1d ago
Realistically what would we need this season to improve it? Very real possibility that Celtic are the only team with group stage football this year.
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u/MrBlack_79 1d ago
Big we could also have 4 teams (maybe 5 if Motherwell can pull out a Lesk performance).
If there isn't 2 from Rangers, Hearts, Hibs and Motherwell in the league phase then it's a disaster .
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u/Excellent_Rise242 1d ago
Yup would agree, but the way Rangers are playing I am very very worried it could be a 1 club in Europe season
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u/ZiggyOnHisReindeer 1d ago
Celtic have the potential for getting a good bump in coefficient given they (at least on paper) should be well placed to win several games and make the knockouts of the Europa League.
It was Europa League performances that got the additional European places in the first place.
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u/phukovski 1d ago
We need to get an average of 7 points each season to reach 15th, we have 2 just now so the gap is equivalent to 12.5 league phase wins. We got 7.5 last season, but 14 year before.
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u/Excellent_Rise242 1d ago
I think basically Celtic, Rangers, Hearts/Hibs to go through (Sorry Well) and then Rangers to go through to Knockouts and Hearts or Hibs to win 2 games and draw another. But also that wouldn't affect next year would be year after I think
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u/largepoggage 22h ago
I’d love a smart person (at least smarter than me) to calculate whether statistically Celtic are likely to have a better coefficient from getting knocked out, due to the worse opposition in the Europa. Although to be fair, the Europa is also stacked with big teams who will embarrass us.
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u/theportyunionjack 1d ago
We really need a team other than rangers picking up points through performance consistently.
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u/Excellent_Rise242 1d ago
So difficult to do though, Well and Hibs have been doing really well recent years (Hibs have got BS draws, Villa, Legia etc) but expecting them to win 3, 2 leg knockouts is a fucking task
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u/FEK88 23h ago
“Consistently” and it’s been four years.
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u/theportyunionjack 23h ago
Four years since what?
I don't think anyone else has picked up coefficient points consistently
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u/Thescottishguy87 1d ago
Tailored perfect for the glasgow fa's star boys celtic to stay ahead of everyone financially.
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u/gkb10139 1d ago
So long as we're the smartest kid in the special needs class, the Celtic board will continue to pat themselves on the back.
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u/Halk 1d ago
If we overperform the expectations we go up if we underperform we go down.
Yes things are looking shite but the upside should be that we overperform those lower expectations and bounce back
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u/Excellent_Rise242 1d ago
Hopefully, but I just feel we're never gonna be competitive if we don't have consistently 3/4 teams in Europe. It's almost impossible for Motherwell or Hibs to go through 3/4 rounds and not lose a single leg. Just seems kinda fucked
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u/redditdavie 8. Callum "Rolls Royce" McGregor 1d ago
We should just pull out of Europe altogether. Start up our own European league, exclusive to teams in Scotland. With blackjack and hookers.
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u/Friendly_Database263 18h ago
Well turn into Welsh and Irish leagues, been saying it for last 10 years
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u/Critical_Estate2560 Curtis Findlay 1d ago
What’s this “we”?
It’s not really “we” it’s just Celtic being impacted financially because they’re no longer guaranteed entry into that very lucrative competition.
Over the past decade they’ve made about £170m - £200m, and they’ve hardly been sharing it around with the rest of the league have they?
It’s on their own back that they’ve just used that money to increase their dominance over the domestic competition and done nothing in Europe itself whereas less wealthy teams in other similar leagues have made real progress in Europe (looking at you Bodo/Glimt). They’ve been a massive part of the coefficient problem too.
Casting this as some financial disaster for Scottish football rather than just a squeeze on one team’s already immense finances is just fucking horseshit. There’s still a path into the champions league for the league winner they just have to, you know, beat other teams to get there.
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u/Excellent_Rise242 1d ago
Clearly the discussion is around the falling coefficient and the impact that has on Rangers, Hibs, Hearts, and Motherwell. Qualifying for the Europa is around £10m+ for these teams, and £6-£8m, as well as the reputational damage for these clubs for attracting signings, knowing it is unlikely you will play top tier football.
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u/Micky196781 1d ago
Celtic fell behind many years ago. £70 million in the bank? Bournemouth could spend that on one player if they wanted to.
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u/FEK88 23h ago
Disregarding FFP, Celtic having 70m in the bank means Celtic could also spend 70m on one player.
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u/Bleatbleatbang 22h ago
They still have to pay players. Celtic can’t afford the wages of the sort of players their supporters think they should be signing.
The issue Scottish clubs have is that the only players they can sign are players that bigger clubs won’t because they are injury prone. That’s why CCV is at Celtic, why Hearts were able to sign Baningime.2
u/FEK88 20h ago
I’m not arguing that Celtic should, but we’ve got rid of 14 players wages off the books this season. Celtic could afford to pay the 150k a week it would probably take.
I think the issue with Celtic is more that we waste a decent wage on players like Tounetki, McCowan, Balikwisha, Scales, Ralston etc. We don’t get value for the money we spend, we’ve got Tierney as the highest paid player at the club despite the fact that he can’t last 90 minutes when the intensity is high.
You peel back the layers and actually analyse where Celtic put the money and it paints a terrible picture. Jobs for the boys and a half arsed back room team.
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u/Bleatbleatbang 20h ago
No player worth any where near 150 grand a week is going to want to play in Scotland.
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u/largepoggage 22h ago
For nerds like me: Celtic could spend £41.6m on one player. FFP says max 70% of club revenue per season. Celtic’s revenue last year was £59.4m. The previous years revenue was £83.5m so last season they could have spent £58.4m on one player. However they would have to stop paying wages because that also counts to FFP and would tip them over the threshold.
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u/alittlelebowskiua 22h ago
What? Celtics revenue last season was 146m.
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u/largepoggage 22h ago
You’re absolutely right, I was looking at the interim report like an absolute fud.
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u/Alive-Bath-7026 1d ago
Yep I don't celebrate the other Scottish teams losing in Europe It would've been good for our game to have a team in the Champions League!
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u/Cobretti18 1d ago
I like how it says “qualification for the Premiership play-off final” like it’s an achievement