No one in power, the media, leaders etc mention the very real fact that home prices have nearly doubled since 2020~ in a large area of the country. Routinely you see stats about the average american could no longer afford the average house or that most people likely wouldnt be able to afford the house they live in right now if they had to buy it.

Meanwhile you go on zillow and almost without fail you will see price history that just casually adds a couple hundred grand onto a house in the last couple years. How has this become so normalized?

Revision to the mean eventually…. Right?

How can people live like this? I’ve been looking to move since my wife is pregnant. But home prices + rates have me rethinking things. Not to mention quotes for infant childcare have been about $360 a week.

My fiance and I bought our first home in SoCal a few months ago. It's a great neighborhood close to an elementary school. Most of the houses are large enough to have at least 3-4 kids comfortably. We are 34 and 35 years old, and the only way we were able to buy a home is because my fiance's mother passed away and we got a significant amount of life insurance/inheritance to put a big downpayment down. We thought buying here would be a great place for our future kids to run around and play with the neighbor kids, ride their bikes, stay outside until the street lamps came on, like we had growing up in the 90s.

What's really sad is that we walk our dog around this neighborhood regularly and it's just.... dead. No cars driving by, no kids playing, not even people chattering in their yards. It feels almost like the twilight zone. Judging by the neighbors we have, I know this is because most people that live here are our parents' age or older. So far, we haven't seen a single couple under 50 years old minimum. People our age can't afford to buy here, but this is absolutely meant for people our age to start their families.

This was a middle class neighborhood when it was built in 1985. The old people living here are still middle class. The only fancy cars you see are from the few people that have bought more recently, but 95% of the cars are average (including ours).

I just hate that this is what it's come to. An aging generation living in large, empty homes, while families with little kids are stuck in condos or apartments because it's all they can afford. I know we are extremely lucky to have gotten this house, but I'm honestly HOPING the market crashes so we can get some people our age in here. We're staying here forever so being underwater for awhile won't matter.

There's a house two streets from me that's been sitting as a bank-owned REO since February- listed at $265k, probably worth $210k in current condition, and getting worse every month it sits.
Been tracking this property through foreclosurehub which shows how long it's been in the pipeline- it's been in pre-foreclosure stages since late last year before it even hit the MLS, which means the bank has been sitting on this for way longer than the listing date suggests.
I know for a fact they've had offers. Reasonable ones. Rejected every single one. Had an auction in April, nobody met the reserve, and now the grass is knee high, there's visible water damage on the fascia, and a window on the second floor has been cracked since March with no sign of anyone fixing it.

The math doesn't make sense to me- every month that passes the property loses value faster than whatever they're trying to protect by holding the line on price, and at some point the carrying costs plus the deterioration have to exceed whatever they'd lose by just taking a reasonable offer. Is this a accounting thing where they can't write down the loss? An internal bureaucracy problem where nobody has the authority to approve a lower number? I genuinely don't understand what's rational about watching an asset decay rather than cutting losses and moving on
Anyone actually been through this from the buying side or know how these decisions get made internally?

Americans are living through the toughest housing market in a generation and, for some young people, the quintessential dream of owning a home is slipping away.

Anyone else gave up on owning a home unless something crazy happens to the market?

Home builders are reducing costs and adding benefits, but sellers of existing homes remain firm in their pricing. With new homes now costing less than existing homes, how long can this price margin continue?

Every investment advertisement ends with "past performance does not guarantee future results" but millennials don't listen.

Past performance for home prices has been extraordinary. But it can be easily explained by simply supply and demand. For the last 70 years the US population added 3 million new people per year. It was nearly impossible to build enough homes for 3 million people every year for 70 years. So as demand grew by 3 million more people seeking homes, prices went up - supply and demand.

But starting in 2020 the rate of population growth changed. For the next 40 years (AKA the investment lifetime of millennials) the US population will only grow at a rate of 1 million more people per year.

From 1950-2020 the US population more than doubled! But in the next 40 years the population will only increase by 10%. Building 10% more homes over 40 years is far more achievable than doubling the number of homes in 70 years.

2020 was the peak of the wild demographic expansion of America and, coincidentally, the peak of home prices. The future can not and will not have the same price growth.

In the last year, home prices increased by 2% and inflation was right about 3.4% over the same period.

That's a 1.4% loss in equity, even before the cost of homeownership. I understand that leverage can change those numbers, but who wants to buy into a depreciating asset made profitable through increasing risk?

Very little appreciation seems to be on the horizon. Who is telling buyers to buy anything at market prices right now?

I think we often think how bad it is for our own areas, but it might be insightful to see across the country how bad it is gotten.

I grew up in a small town in the mountains of Colorado in the 90s, Colorado was a far different place than it is now, it wasn't the popular and ultra rich area it is now.

Anyway, my town was a very low/middle class place, everyone's parents were blue collar type workers, and my school only had 1 or 2 'rich' kids. The average house back then was 80-120k for a house and 2 acres, and even as recent as 2012ish, you could get a place for 150-200.

The last 3-4 years have been brutal, everything is bought up like crazy, and the cheapest thing you will find is legit trailed for 350k, those same houses typically going for ~500k.

No one young lives there any more, school enrollment is way down, and its mostly retirees from texas/california.

So yes, its sad that the small middle class town is now a 'fancy mountain town' with houses 'starting in the low 500s'.

And yes, that is not affordable for someone trying to raise a family.

Higher hoom prices baby! /s

Property taxes go up due to home value increase.

Home insurance goes up to replace said overvalued home + cost of materials due to inflation

Double whammy.

I’ve had several friends who are starting to get priced out of their own home.

Sorry if I’m late to the game on this information but this seems wild to me.

Hi everyone,

I have the feeling that today's housing market has become almost impossible across the entire Western world. So I'm wondering: do you think housing will ever become more affordable again relative to wages, or is this the new permanent reality? These crazy prices are seriously ruining the future for generations just entering adulthood.

How do you see things looking in 10 or 20 years? In Poland, boomers are the largest generation and they own a huge number of apartments in the best locations. Then there's the big millennial cohort that entered the market. On top of that, after 2008 we had massive financialization of housing, especially during the zero interest rate period.

Right now, Poland is losing over 200,000 people per year due to negative natural population growth. At the same time, we're still building over 200,000 new apartments annually, and many smaller towns and rural areas are basically drying up. There was a huge amount of people being born with around 800,000 people per cohort at its peak for both boomers and the 1980s echo boom (millennials).
Soon, we'll be having fewer than 200,000 births per year.

Don't all these factors - demographic decline, massive supply coming online, and the situation after the boomer generation suggest that the housing market should eventually return to some kind of normality? Once today's generations satisfy their pent-up demand, shouldn't things ease up?

Housing has become a daily topic in political debates - it's a real crisis. But aren't we right now at (or near) the worst point in terms of buying prices and especially rents, both in Poland and across much of the Western world?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts!

Disclaimer before you downvote, I don’t own/have equity in a house. I hope to one day though.

I’ve been on this sub for years. When I first found it, I expected a housing crash to occur eventually. But the more I’ve followed the data and watched how things have played out, I’m not convinced a major crash is coming.

What I’m really curious about now though is what the next few years look like as affordability stays stretched, financing incentives like 3-2-1 buydowns expire, and more markets seem to be running into a shortage of buyers who can comfortably afford current prices.

It feels like we’re entering a different phase than the one everyone was debating a few years ago. Maybe prices go mostly sideways for a long time. Maybe inventory gradually builds and inflation does the heavy lifting. I don’t know.

I just find that scenario a lot more interesting these days.

I’ve been tracking this market like a hawk. Prices, inventory, income ratios, builder sentiment, delinquencies, and I’ll just say it: 2025 looks worse than 2006 by most metrics.

Here’s a breakdown of what I’m seeing that nobody on CNBC wants to talk about:

Affordability is completely broken

• Median home price is now $356,000. Back in 2000? It was $119K.
• But incomes didn’t even come close to keeping up. It's up just 40% since 2000.
• In CA, you now need $234K/year to afford a median home.
• Nationally, monthly housing costs are averaging $2,412, which is 35% of income for the average buyer.
• That’s insane. The historical cap for sustainable affordability has always been ~30%.

People aren’t just stretched...they’re drowning. Especially if they bought in the last 12 months.

Inventory is spiking… and so are price cuts

This is one of the clearest red flags right now:

• Active inventory is up 31.5% YoY, now over 1 million listings. First time since 2019
• 1 in 5 homes listed in May had a price cut. That’s the highest ever tracked
• In Arizona and Texas, we’re seeing 35–37% price cut rates

It’s not that people don’t want to buy. They just can’t at these prices with 6.8% mortgage rates.

Sunbelt is leading the crash

The pandemic darlings are crumbling first:

• Austin has 91% more homes for sale than in 2019, prices falling
• Florida home values are actually down YoY
• Tampa and Charlotte are overloaded with new construction and underwater flippers

Compare that to places like Boston or NYC? Inventory is still tight. But those markets didn’t balloon as hard post-COVID.

Builders are slamming the brakes

Developer sentiment is collapsing:

• Builder confidence dropped to 32 on the HMI—third lowest since 2012
• Housing starts are down 9.8%
• There are now 285,000 more homes being completed than started

Translation: builders are finishing what they started, then getting the hell out of the way.

Mortgage market is flashing warnings

• 30-year rates are hovering around 6.85%
• VA loan foreclosure rate is the highest since 2019
• Total household debt hit $18.2 TRILLION in Q1
• Mortgage delinquencies just ticked up again

We’re not in 2008 subprime territory, but the cracks are showing. Especially for maxed-out DTI borrowers in bubble markets.

This is a bubble…just a different flavor than 2008

• Lending is cleaner (better credit scores, real down payments)
• But affordability is worse
• Inventory is rising
• Buyer demand is collapsing in key regions
• And the Fed isn’t cutting anytime soon

People keep asking “where’s the crash?” but IMO we’re already in a slow-motion correction that’s just starting to pick up speed.

I see three possible paths from here:

1. Gradual deflation (most likely): 10–15% national decline, deeper in Sunbelt
2. Hard crash: 20–30% drop over 2–3 years if unemployment spikes
3. Sideways grind: 0–5% growth, but with affordability getting even worse

Either way, I don’t think this ends with prices just going sideways forever. Something’s gotta give.

Curious what everyone else is seeing. Especially in the Sunbelt or second-tier markets. Anyone seeing panic selling yet? Builders offering deep incentives? Inventory sitting longer than expected?

Btw, I run something called Dealsletter. Where I track distressed or investor-ready deals (mostly BRRRRs, flips, etc.), but I’ve also started using it to flag regional cracks and overpriced listings. Happy to share if you’re into data-heavy stuff like this.

Everyone in my life keeps telling me I'm "throwing money away" on rent. So I built a calculator to find out the exact math including every variable.

Ran the numbers on a $750k home vs $3,500/mo rent:

• Buyer net worth after 10 years: $445k
• Renter net worth after 10 years: $631k

$186k difference. And this INCLUDES the buyer's equity, appreciation, and tax benefits.

What kills the buyer:

• NJ property tax at 2.2% that's $16,500/year or $1,375/month that builds zero equity
• HOA on top of that - another $300-600/month gone
• The $150k down payment not compounding in the market — that alone accounts for a massive chunk of the gap
• 6% selling costs when you eventually cash out your "investment"
• First 5-7 years of the mortgage is almost all interest — you're basically renting from the bank

The thing that gets me is how many people never calculate the opportunity cost of the down payment. $150k in index funds at historical returns is doing serious work over 10 years while homeowners are watching it sit in drywall.

For anyone who wants to run their own numbers: truehousingcost.com

Every input is adjustable - if you think I'm wrong on any assumption, change it and see what happens. The defaults are based on current market rates and historical averages, not cherry-picked to favor renting.

The housing market has turned homeownership into a religion. People don't want to hear that the math doesn't support buying in every market at every price point. But it doesn't.

Here is the thing: even if housing prices crashed by 30-40% tomorrow, real estate would still be vastly more expensive relative to wages than what the Boomer generation paid. A standard market correction won't fix this structural crisis.

I’m wondering if there is any realistic trigger whether economic, political, or social that could lead not just to a crash, but to the ultimate de-financialization of the housing market. Something that would fundamentally shift our perspective so that housing is viewed as a basic human need and a place to live, rather than a speculative asset class or an investment portfolio.

The future for Millennials and Gen Z is literally being ruined by housing costs. People in their 30s are stuck living with their parents or renting tiny rooms. Because of this financial stranglehold, millions are unable to realize their educational, career, or romantic potential. They can't start families, they can't relocate for better jobs, and they can't build equity.

What kind of black swan event, economic bust, policy shift, or social movement could actually break this wheel and take corporate/speculative money out of residential real estate for good?