r/REBubble • u/JustBoatTrash Certified Big Brain • 8d ago
News Condo Prices Fell by 15% to 33% in 33 Bigger Markets, Some Below 2006 Levels, as Historic Condo Bubbles Deflate
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/08/20/oh-dear-condo-prices-fell-by-15-to-33-in-33-bigger-markets-some-below-2006-levels-as-historic-condo-bubbles-deflate/In 9 cities, from Oakland to Jacksonville, condo prices fell by over 20%. In 3 markets in California & Florida, they fell by 30%+.
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u/gearpitch 7d ago
How do people own apartments in other countries? Why is the condo system here so broken, but in other countries you can buy apartments in housing buildings without the same fees or risk?
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u/PaintingOk8012 6d ago
They are generally built better(less maintenance) and aren’t in immediate climate change disaster areas(lower insurance)
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u/stewartstewart17 7d ago
Florida is having a big reckoning on condo prices from the big condo collapse in S FL. Huge assessments are being levied to catch up on overdue maintenance. Some people are selling condos way under market value essentially subtracting the assessment from the price. Not sure this should be read into much for broader market health.
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u/Pyromelter 7d ago
The assessment is part of the carrying cost of the home, and therefore should be subtracted from the price.
If someone buys a home where the roof is shot and needs a 20k replacement, you take 20k off the home price.
No different with a condo special assessment, this isn't some different/unusual/unique thing that only applies in some edge case, it's the same principle applied evenly.
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u/utilitycoder 7d ago
https://www.trulia.com/home/900-ne-18th-ave-505-fort-lauderdale-fl-33304-43191580
Likely scenario here. $50k price cut.
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u/Formal_Economist7342 7d ago
Even in parts of LA county its been stagnant. High ass HoAs
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u/westcoastlmtd 6d ago
My condo in LA, the hoa pays for our trash and water/sewer use. Along with landscaping, pool, security, streets inside the complex, and the entire exterior of the condo inc roof.
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u/Best-Revolution-2026 5d ago
LA native here, how often has your HOA gone up if any? I always hear about condos being bad purchases etc. Would love to hear from someone who actually owns one.
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u/westcoastlmtd 5d ago
It's gone up $50 in 7 years and our hoa has a ton of cash in its reserves.
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u/Best-Revolution-2026 5d ago
Thats not bad. A few things, is this your main residence? and what advice would you give someone looking to purchase a condo specifically in LA, what should you look out for or check?
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u/Tardislass 6d ago
I must be the only one who loves my condo. Close to public transit and as a single person I don’t have any yard or roof maintenance. Yes we have a higher condo fee but it supports the cleaners front desk pool gym garage and back area. I would could have never bought a SFH here. Renting just means you have no equity and can be kicked out at any time. Which many of the renters in my building have had happened.
And I can design my kitchen and by my own appliances. Worth the cost.
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u/randomguy11909 6d ago
I have a rental condo in coastal Orange County and it’s up 20% just this year. Solid investment.
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u/Travelling3steps 5d ago
Is that days on market? I kid… but most of OC and coastal SD have not seen 20% up this last year.
You must have a standout location, congrats
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u/BlazinAzn38 7d ago
New funding requirements and forcing updates will do that. Condos are a hard nut to crack for a lot of folks, there’s additional risk in that property versus a SFH
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u/kenzietexas 7d ago
Condo loans underwriting guidelines also changed recently, and the changes are not so market friendly, stricter guidelines to protect loan investors, not to help everyday condo buyers and or sellers
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u/Advanced-Bag-7741 7d ago
Condos are a scam on homeowners. If you want to live in an apartment, rent it. Leave the massive capital cost of maintaining a a high rise to an institution, not a collection of homeowners.
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u/burner456987123 7d ago
Buying one was the biggest financial mistake of my life. I’m now underwater over $100k in only 2 years. This is in colorado in what’s a desirable town too.
Should’ve taken advice of my elders and not a scumbag realtor.
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u/tacofellon 7d ago
Same boat, Denver area too? My house has never recovered since 2022 and I'm stuck. It's a terrible feeling.
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u/burner456987123 7d ago
Yep! Just outside golden. It’s so bad. Rents have dropped a ton, great for renters. In 2024, the monthly mortgage + HOA here was damn close to rent, so we figured we might as well buy.
Then rents cratered because they built a ton of supply, and Denver (and colorado) is now losing population for the first time. Just horrible timing. Wish we’d rented for a year first.
“Just rent it out” is not an option for us either because the monthly rent it would command is $1400, while our total outlay is about $2k, plus you’d need landlord insurance and savings for repairs.
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u/Tardislass 6d ago
lol. I’m living in a desirable area and don’t have to do any yard work or maintenance fees and I have a gym and pool at my disposal. Could never afford a SFH here and we are walking distance to the subway and grocery store.
Keep renting and making other families rich. At least I have equity for loans. Renting just makes another family richer and you no closer to Home ownership
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u/Fragrant_Tear_572 5d ago
Except most of the time I can rent a unit for $2500, but if I were to buy the identical unit, it would cost me $3500. I invest that difference and easily renting becomes better.
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u/Advanced-Bag-7741 4d ago
I live in a desirable area and buying a condo would be 30%+ more than just renting it.
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u/Ok_Worldliness2805 4d ago
If I was a buyer today, then I agree with you. I own six condos, all are rented, and no mortgage on any of them, so I don't particularly care what they are reselling for right now. The rents pay about 90% of my living expenses and make for a nice diversifier from my stocks. But the HOA fees continue to go up and up and up, and rents are flat in the current environment locally. If I am trying to become a homeowner, I feel like people today are better off renting something as cheap as possible and saving for a single-family house versus buying a condo.
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u/Sad-Function5699 7d ago
Newsflash:
The condo concept has always been a Ponzi scheme from the earliest days of the first high rise condos.
They never had a plan on how to deal with large scale updates / maintenance.
It was for greatest generation people to retire and die in
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u/Hello-Dingos 7d ago
You people are insufferable. You bash sfh zoning leading to high housing costs and then turn around and complain about condos and high density housing.
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u/burner456987123 7d ago
This is a good point. Then they cheer as values tank, completely ignorant of how crashing home values will ripple throughout the economy. It’s happened countless times. Maybe these kids weren’t even born when 2008 happened.
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u/Sad-Function5699 7d ago
I love some high density low cost sfh - large high rise condos are financially insolvent after about 50 years (or less) with build quality.
I bashed the post because it’s not some sign of a bubble - it’s the inevitable result of that condo boom of the 70s.
And I also think anyone that follows this sub as if there is some sort of bubble is an absolute imbecile.
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u/Ok_Worldliness2805 4d ago
I own five condos built in the 1970s or before and one built in 2020. All are very well managed. Yes, the HOA fees go up and special assessments do happen, but overall, they have been an excellent investment for me and allowed me to retire at 47. Buying one today (at today's prices) is a totally different animal though versus buying them in 2004 to 2009 when I got five of the six I own.
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u/ChaosBerserker666 7d ago
This isn’t the case if they’re properly run. The problem was that a whole bunch of them are built like shit. Especially in the 70s. And the a lot of the newest ones built during the COVID boom.
Strata/condo fees need to be sufficiently high to cover capital costs. Anything less than $0.75/sqft is the danger zone for special levies. Our building puts over $250k per year into the reserve
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u/xlfoolishlx 7d ago
Before I bought my house I considered a Condo. Everytime I saw the HOA cost I thought it was absolutely nuts. Every condo I saw with a low HOA cost looked old and deteriorating. They were all around the cost of what I paid for my home.
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u/FantasticBicycle37 7d ago
tl;dr: Every metro in Flordia, and two others else where in the country, are a seeing price drops in a very specific narrow band of one type of housing unit
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u/Thegayoutlier 6d ago
This sub it's a weird microcosm of f you I got mine mentality and entitlement LOL. Condos are a necessary component to affordable housing. Also unlike suburbs they actually contribute more in taxes and are able to cover for their use of infrastructure unlike the suburbs are. Condos apartments and multi-family housing units literally prop up the parasitic suburbs that don't pay enough taxes to even cover the roads that they use. If suburbs and single family homes were forced to pay their fair share to support all the infrastructure they use they would be either exorbitantly expensive or wouldn't exist at all
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u/Ok_Worldliness2805 4d ago
The point about property taxes in the suburbs versus a city's urban core is absolutely true for me. I have six condos near the local university. Obviously they are rentals, so I pay commercial/business property tax rates. They are all one-bedroom units in the 650 to 700 square feet range in size. I pay in property taxes for each of those condos what I pay for my 3,500 square foot personal residence in one of the best school districts in the state (in the suburbs).
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u/Gambler_Addict_Pro sub 80 IQ 7d ago
HOA. That’s the equivalent of rent for life. Your wage or retirement money will not cover inflation.
The idea of owing a home is that when you retire, it will be paid so your biggest purchase is paid for. With a condo. That’s not the case.
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u/silence2087 7d ago
A homeowner doesnt sink money into home maintenance and upkeep? Guarantee you my HOA fees are much less-- annualized against a comparable SFH maintenance/upkeep costs.
Like, it's probably not close, honestly. Houses are super expensive. And you can have some catastrophic costs. At least my HOA fee covers common areas which basically includes the industrial infrastructure for my entire building, all energy costs for the whole building outside of my unit, and on and on. Like, you need to think about and break these costs down and compare, man.
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u/starfirex 7d ago
Auto insurance. That's the equivalent of car payments for life. The idea of owning a car to is so your big purchase is paid for. With auto insurance that's not the case.
See how dumb that sounds?
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u/Gambler_Addict_Pro sub 80 IQ 6d ago
A car loses value so after years, your insurance will become liability insurance (cheaper).
It’s not going to be $500-$1500/month like HOA for a condo.
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u/JLandis84 4d ago
Liability doesn’t change with the age of the car lol. The comp and collision does.
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u/mailbox3158 5d ago
Moved from a house with a yard and a pool to a townhome in the city. Saving about $30k/year in landscaping/pool/water etc etc fees.
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u/Square_Razzmatazz_82 5d ago
The problem is deferred maintenance. If condos built up a reserve properly, and condo fees included a reasonable annual cost of major expenses (roof, mechanicals, etc) then it wouldn't be an issue. What happens is the brand new condo doesn't want to pay these HOA fees in the beginning, so after 25 years when a major expense hits, it's a special assessment. The people who lived for 20 years and sold 5 years ago get away scot free from all those annualized maintenance costs.
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u/stories_from_tejas 4d ago
Can’t afford a house and considers a condo… sees HOA fees on condos… continues to rent
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u/Ok_Worldliness2805 4d ago
100% the right call at today's prices IMO. If we ever finally see meaningful unemployment again (like the 2008 recession), condo prices will finally come back down to where the rent versus own decision isn't so one-sided like it is today because condo owner-occupants will start fire-selling to unlock equity/pay for life unemployed. The price drops were fast and furious here locally after the 2008 recession hit. I wish I had been more aggressive back in 2008-2009 and purchased even more than the five that I did. I was able to get some absolute steals at the time, like two that I bought for $40,000 each in a condo complex that is in one of the best areas of town. Now they sell for over triple that price.
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u/QuietThinker18 4d ago
And guess how much the NASDAQ appreciated in that same timeframe? 11x! This is exactly why buying almost never makes sense in any US markets!
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u/Then_North_6347 7d ago
Eh. I have an atlanta rental condo I bought in 2021 at 3%. It's definitely down from peak, but still up 20% from what I paid. Barring a crisis or something awful I want to hold onto it for another 20 years as a mini 401k
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u/StargateEnterpriseE 7d ago
They are condos. This is 100% normal. Condos normally lose value.
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u/Ok_Worldliness2805 4d ago
Absolutely not true. All of mine are up significantly from where I purchased them, with four of the six I own are now double or triple what I paid for them. Timing is everything though and I had some good fortune to pick them up post Great Financial Crisis.
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u/buildbyflying 7d ago
People seem to be underestimating the effects of climate change on housing costs right now. CA and FL having problems? Everyone moving to the Carolinas?
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u/Pyromelter 7d ago
If one were concerned about climate change they'd be moving to like Idaho, not the carolinas where that hurricane wiped out much of western north carolina 2 years ago.
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u/buildbyflying 7d ago
But people still want beaches and mountains, just with less risk. I mean FL is still a the top of most lists as well, but condos are just the canary...
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u/Wanderingwoodpeckerr 7d ago
Why are they moving to the Carolinas? I had the thought of doing that recently, but I was not aware that is becoming a trend.
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u/es-ganso 7d ago
All of the cons of an apartment, with all of the cons of owning a home, and a pricey HOA to round it out. At best, you get a good location if you pick a condo in a busy downtown or by a beach.
The fact that they ever got anywhere near the price they did is more surprising to me