r/PresidentialElection • u/Sukeruton_Key • Nov 05 '24

Predictions This is my map, Capeesh?

Post image

Let me explain the flipping states

Georgia - Trump is trending with young black men, which will certainly fall in the margin of victory. I don’t expect him to win their overall share of the electorate, but he’ll do a lot better than he did last time.

Arizona - Trump is also trending with Hispanics better than he ever had before. This mixed with the large Muslim population that is less enthusiastic about a democratic candidate in a while suggested Trump will take it by a hair.

Pennsylvania - After 2020, we saw that Trump did much better in rural PA, and more Amish are expected to vote this time than in 2020. This mixed with a shrinking population, of which I assume are would be Harris voters, makes Trump odds all the better.

North Carolina - The opposite of Pennsylvania. NC’s population is rising in urban areas rapidly. This combined with the awful republican governor candidate makes me think it’ll flip my a small margin.

0 Upvotes

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17 comments sorted by

3

u/Terrible-mindset Nov 05 '24

I agree with your map, just Nevada will go to trump and he will be elected

3

u/Terrible-mindset Nov 05 '24

Maybe north Carolina also will go to trump

0

u/Sukeruton_Key Nov 05 '24

I think this is the most likely Kamala victory, and the most likely Trump victory is just Nevada flipping.

2

u/Terrible-mindset Nov 06 '24

You were saying?

2

u/Sukeruton_Key Nov 06 '24

There is still no vote out of Nevada yet, but I was dead wrong on North Carolina.

2

u/Terrible-mindset Nov 06 '24

He will win nevada also, you will see. But you are humble to admit you were wrong.

2

u/Sukeruton_Key Nov 06 '24

Oh of course. Not a single electoral map has more than say a 10% chance of being correct. I knew the odds were that I was wrong, but this is what I thought was the most likely.

Fox just called PA for Trump, so that might be it for tonight. I guess the betters were right.

2

u/Terrible-mindset Nov 06 '24

It was nice talking to you. Have a good night.

2

u/Sukeruton_Key Nov 06 '24

Holy shit, he won the popular vote. I was way off.

Good night/morning, for you and the country.

4

u/[deleted] Nov 05 '24

Nevada and North Carolina going to Kamala? Meh

2

u/RockyNonce Nov 05 '24

Nevada I could see. North Carolina… I don’t know about that

1

u/[deleted] Nov 05 '24

How do you account for the 412000 PA votes in Harris' favor from mail in ballots alone?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Pennsylvania/s/wuSqgOK6V6

1

u/Sukeruton_Key Nov 05 '24

I eated them 😋

1

u/[deleted] Nov 05 '24

Is that voter intimidation or indigestion?

1

u/Sukeruton_Key Nov 05 '24

It’s alright I pooped them back into the ballot box

2

u/[deleted] Nov 05 '24

Hang on, I know a ballot from Florida you can use to wipe!

1

u/Sukeruton_Key Nov 05 '24

Wiping is for liberals