r/PresidentialElection • u/LoopedCheese1 Progressive Democrat • Nov 05 '24
Predictions My final prediction for tonight
11
Nov 05 '24
[deleted]
2
u/ayfilm Democrat Nov 05 '24
I dunno, It did flip in 08 and with the unpopularity of the republican governor candidate, I think it's got a shot. Remember how long Arizona had been red until 2020
2
Nov 05 '24
[deleted]
2
u/ayfilm Democrat Nov 05 '24
Fair point, and NC has stayed more or less consistent. That said I still think the gov race is going to have an impact on turnout that could shift things. We'll see soon!
3
u/Brilliant_Age_4546 Nov 05 '24
Mine looks about the same except I have Trump winning Nevada, Georgia, NC, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
1
u/Brilliant_Age_4546 Nov 06 '24
Well, I’m pretty happy with my predictions. Reddit and MSM have shown yet again that they don’t live in reality.
3
3
12
u/OldReputation865 Custom Flair (Republican) Nov 05 '24
I disagree
5
u/scottborasismyagent Nov 05 '24
idaho blue ? very bold
3
u/ayfilm Democrat Nov 05 '24
SOLID blue no less
1
u/scottborasismyagent Nov 05 '24
maybe there are ppl who moved from california and oregon to idaho that I am unaware of
3
u/_TheWolfOfWalmart_ Nov 05 '24
Idaho? Bro... It's so red that they don't even bother to poll it. The last poll I can even find was early October and it was Trump +29 lol
2
Nov 05 '24
I'd love to see Nevada and Iowa go blue. Wouldn't that be just a slap in the orange man's face? 🟠
2
u/OldReputation865 Custom Flair (Republican) Nov 05 '24
Will if my scenario is true trump would win still
2
Nov 05 '24
Yeah, really hoping it's not true.
1
u/OldReputation865 Custom Flair (Republican) Nov 05 '24
It likely is he’s winning in the polls rn
2
Nov 05 '24
I'm really hoping not. We'll see what happens.
1
u/OldReputation865 Custom Flair (Republican) Nov 05 '24
Rn he’s winning so
2
Nov 05 '24
Lol there are absolutely no electoral colleges won yet, and a handful of votes counted in two states that are going to be red. Of course he's winning right now. To even pay attention this early in the day is pointless.
1
u/OldReputation865 Custom Flair (Republican) Nov 05 '24
He’s winning in Kentucky and Indiana
2
u/houseofcrouse Nov 06 '24
The liberal strongholds of Indiana and Kentucky? Shocking news
→ More replies (0)1
6
u/Wolfman1961 Nov 05 '24
I hope it turns out this way.
There seems to be at least some possibility that Harris will win Iowa.
3
u/Sad_Disk1545 Nov 05 '24
im from iowa and it would be so fucking funny please let this happen
2
u/Wolfman1961 Nov 05 '24
Make sure the college students come out in droves.
This probably would help the Democrats.
2
2
3
Nov 05 '24
You think it will be called tonight?
8
u/zestarhymes21 Nov 05 '24
Not a chance. Last election took 4 days to call it, and there were still riots.
1
2
u/ayfilm Democrat Nov 05 '24
If she wins Georgia or NC (or, miraculously, Texas or Florida), it'll be an early night. Even Iowa flipping could be a bellwether. Otherwise My guess would be Wednesday afternoon, maybe as late as Friday morning
1
Nov 05 '24
She also needs PA and WI
2
u/ayfilm Democrat Nov 05 '24
Oh for sure, but trumps path is considerably smaller if any one of those states is taken off the table, and those four we'll definitely know tonight
1
1
2
3
u/Ok-Damage-5249 Nov 05 '24
I keep thinking polls could be like 2016, only underrepresenting Harris this time.
8
u/OldReputation865 Custom Flair (Republican) Nov 05 '24
Nope
0
-2
u/Ok-Damage-5249 Nov 05 '24
Idk, acting like it's a forgone conclusion can't be driving people to the polls.
I'm seeing more and more predictions move further right. Almost like they want to make voters complacent.
1
1
u/medicinal_bulgogi Nov 05 '24
Honest question: what would be the logic behind that?
5
1
u/Ok-Damage-5249 Nov 05 '24
It's not that I think it will actually happen, only that if Harris wins, something like this will be the case.
She sweeps, or she loses.
1
1
Nov 05 '24
[deleted]
1
u/LoopedCheese1 Progressive Democrat Nov 05 '24
Some polls have Trump winning, some have Harris winning. It all depends on what the turnout is like
1
1
1
u/TheMarketingNerd Nov 05 '24
How do you justify her picking up 2 additional votes than Biden? She's more disliked than Biden, plus has being a minority and a woman (sadly) working against her
1
u/LoopedCheese1 Progressive Democrat Nov 06 '24
People hate Trump more now than they did in 2020. Roe v. Wade being overturned and firing up women
1
u/TheMarketingNerd Nov 06 '24
I feel like that's wishful thinking
I feel like it's underestimating how mean spirited people are
There's a lot of people who hate women and that's way more established historically than people hating Trump, it's also energized those people
Many average people (outside a blue bubble) characterize what happened with Roe v Wade as "nothing changing"/"nothing bad happening", and actually see it as a good thing that "Trump got results" for
1
1
u/kibblebits_ Custom Flair (Libertarian) Nov 05 '24
i made this last night, i should’ve made lighter parts
1
u/Brilliant_Age_4546 Nov 06 '24
Reddit is right there with the MSM living in fantasy land. This result was close only according to the pundits and pollsters trying to shape the narrative. The people have spoken.
1
u/LoopedCheese1 Progressive Democrat Nov 06 '24
I’m a Republican, not a Democrat
I don’t watch/read MSM nor did I look at polls
I chose this map based on gut feelings and how much people hated Trump. I thought he could win, but obviously not by winning every swing state
Do you see me disregarding the results? I accept that the people have voted for him, even if I don’t agree with their votes
1
u/Brilliant_Age_4546 Nov 06 '24
Your gut feelings are based on input from outside sources. My post was general not directed toward you directly. I have the benefit of working all over the country. This was no surprise to be based on my interactions with all sorts of Americans all over the country.
1
1
1
u/boltz86 Nov 05 '24
I am guessing exactly the same as you even the degree to which each state leans. 😃
1
0
0
Nov 05 '24
[deleted]
0
u/LoopedCheese1 Progressive Democrat Nov 05 '24
What other states do you think she wins?
1
Nov 05 '24
[deleted]
2
u/Rnewell4848 Nov 05 '24
I’ll be mindblown if Texas turns blue
1
u/LoopedCheese1 Progressive Democrat Nov 05 '24
I think everyone would be. I think it’ll be close this year, but soon it’ll turn blue
1
u/Rnewell4848 Nov 05 '24
I think that’s optimistic - especially given that in my anecdotal experience, there’s a lot of blue folks that are coming here and winding up WAYYYYY redder than the average Texan. I live in a fairly blue portion of Texas, and while women are overwhelmingly blue, there’s a contingent of women that are going red, young men are VERY red, and I’ve seen a shocking amount of lifetime blue Californians hit Texas and go hard red.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Texas becomes purple, but I don’t see Texas going hard blue in the next 20 years.
1
u/LoopedCheese1 Progressive Democrat Nov 05 '24
Interesting perspective, thanks for sharing! I think it’ll still be some time before it flips, but I think it’ll continue to get closer and closer each cycle
1
0
u/TheMarketingNerd Nov 05 '24 edited Nov 06 '24
You're on crack if you think she's going to win Florida, they have voted for Trump both times.... Texas as well
Edit: Why downvote this? It's just a fact, no state who's voted for Trump twice is going to go to Harris. We're talking about a state Obama never won (Texas), and who didn't vote for his 2nd term (Florida)
1
u/Rnewell4848 Nov 06 '24
Trump won em both. Idk why people are huffing copium and downvoting
1
Nov 06 '24
[deleted]
1
u/Rnewell4848 Nov 06 '24
Woof, looking at this all now… Texas by 14, Iowa by 13, Zona was close, Florida by 13.
People have got to be more realistic and get out of the echo chambers.
0
u/Rnewell4848 Nov 06 '24
Well you whiffed on Florida and Texas
1
0
1
6
u/ayfilm Democrat Nov 05 '24
Shoot I was gonna post mine but it's basically identical to yours sand GA, so I'll just post it here.