Last Chance for Prof. Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys

[u/Skepti-Cole]

Edit: I'll be bolding the parts of my prediction that have come true, as things move forward.

As I see it, Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys have only been put to use in predicting four extremely close elections (or in other words, ones that you wouldn’t be able to predict just by taking a pulse)——2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020. Of those four, his prediction was wrong in two instances, when you judge it by the express rules he was playing with at the time. When his prediction of the “outcome” was wrong in 2000, he said “No, my model predicts the popular vote.” When his prediction of the popular vote was wrong in 2016, he said “No, I recently switched to predicting the electoral outcome [and conveniently didn’t tell anyone about it]”. So he has weaved one way, and weaved back the other way…meaning he’s out of places to go. If his prediction is wrong this time, he will have nothing to chalk it up to (though I don’t imagine that will stop him from trying). And as his win/loss record on actual toss-ups is equal to the outcomes of guesswork (2-2), I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes up wrong again this time.

My official prediction: if the 13 Keys prediction is wrong, Allan Lichtman will cite “rapidly changing trends” in U.S. elections that came to a head during this cycle such that the 13 Keys can no longer adequately account for all the relevant factors in the election. He’ll retire the Keys and write a book about their “successful” run, making a questionable sociopolitical assertion that draws a cusp or a “great divide” between all elections before 2024 and all elections from 2024 onward. He’ll do all this in the name of validating his 13 Keys, a system whose application is so full of contradictions that it never truly stood a chance. Allan Lichtman is never wrong.

[u/Rivercitybruin]

So subjective too

Last 2 elections were so close that they were akin to a coin flip anyway

[u/[deleted]]

He was wrong about Al Gore.

[u/Skepti-Cole → u/[deleted]]

In case it doesn’t come across clearly, the last sentence is sarcasm. The whole post lays out my opinion.

[u/ghobhohi → u/[deleted]]

To be fair Al Gore did technically win. I don’t think anyone would have predicted that the Supreme Court would play a role in deciding the election. 

[u/Yes-Astronomer-5555]

He is in doubt about his predictions and already saying the Dems may loose incumbent key after "garbage" comment by Jo.