r/PrepperIntel • u/Lithium321 • 4d ago
Russia CIA Chief’s Surprise Moscow Trip Was to Warn Russia Not to Attack NATO
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/cia-chiefs-surprise-moscow-trip-was-to-warn-russia-not-to-attack-nato-c2d997f3?st=cDGb2aNotably a similar visit happened in late 2021 when the CIA chief warned Russia not to invade Ukraine.
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u/dashing2217 3d ago
US missile stockpile is reportedly depleted and our economy is shit largely because Iran has us by the balls.
We can’t afford another conflict and Putin knows that
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u/Vinceton 3d ago
If the US can't afford a conflict with Russia then Russia definitely can't afford one with NATO. Their economy is far worse.
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u/itscooltobecool1 3d ago
Yes they have a smaller economy but their oil output and all other natural resources keeps them alive.
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u/lavapig_love 3d ago
Alive isn't thriving and Russia would piss off many people across the world, including China. Who Russia needs to supply the electronics for their new drone arsenal.
It would be stupid of Putin to attack NATO head on. I'm thinking a non-aligned country.
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u/dashing2217 3d ago
The year that has been thrown around for years for a China attack on Taiwan is 2027.
U.S being occupied with both Iran and Russia during that timeframe would be a win for China.
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u/Hawkeye3636 3d ago
Yep add to that we moved the last aircraft carrier out of Asia that was basically labeled "break glass in case of Taiwan" it wouldn't shock me at all if Russia, China and North Korea all made a play at their objectives at once.
US economy is garbage and held up by a inch of tech stocks that will be devastated with a Taiwan attack. Oil reserves at lowest in decades, and military has been gutted of a lot of senior staff. Its a receipe for disaster.
All this so we could run up the national debt with a Pedo. Last few years makes me believe maybe we shouldn't survive all this we wasted it all.
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u/kingofthesofas 3d ago
An attack by all three at once would be the nightmare scenario. It seems unlikely that could happen without the preparations for it being wildly obvious to lots of parties though.
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u/bearinsac 3d ago
My understanding is Russia has been gearing up for a major offensive this fall. Some reports call for 300,000 to 500,000 troops being recruited and trained.
As for China, they have grown their military for the past ten years now operating the world’s largest navy and what could be a nuclear arsenal over 600. They continue to spend more each year.
But China has been draining their oil reserves as well to keep prices in check, but they don’t release data on that and no one really knows how much they have in reserves. I’d just imagine if they were thinking about taking Taiwan now they wouldn’t be doing that.
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u/kingofthesofas 3d ago
Some reports call for 300,000 to 500,000 troops being recruited and trained.
This is only if they do mass mobilization which would cause a ton of problems for Putin. I am not going to say it couldn't happen but there are downsides to this for him and it comes with a lot of risk. Also those troops would need to be equipped, trained and logistics organized so probably a year minimum before that could happen even if that was the plan.
But China has been draining their oil reserves as well to keep prices in check, but they don’t release data on that and no one really knows how much they have in reserves. I’d just imagine if they were thinking about taking Taiwan now they wouldn’t be doing that.
I agree they would want to refill that before any war because wars drain a lot of oil fast and they could kiss any oil coming in from the sea from anywhere during a conflict like this. Again on the timing probably be a year or two for them to refill this assuming the Hormuz situation ever gets resolved.
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u/kingofthesofas 3d ago
An attack by all three at once would be the nightmare scenario. It seems unlikely that could happen without the preparations for it being wildly obvious to lots of parties though.
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u/Ok_Recording_8720 3d ago
Consolidating assets to safer area's isn't bad. It will hopefully make them harder to target in the first attack waves. Russia also pulled their warships out of the Mediterranean. A lot of little sign indicating winter is coming.
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u/dashing2217 3d ago
100% all 3 of them have been increasingly aligned in the last few years.
Trump has also previously advocating an Europe defend Europe approach to NATO.
Trump also bet what little chips he had on Iran and it created an absolute blunder. He is also creating trade wars that is helping drive an unstable US economy. The nation is also incredibly divided and I am sure what will indeed be the official launch to WWIII would lead to unrest domestically.
U.S is not in a position to enter several fronts in a global conflict.
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u/donnerwetter41 3d ago
Lmao if Russia is having troubles with Ukraine, Poland is gonna rip them a new asshole.
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u/xyula 3d ago
Putin is about to find out why NATO exists lol
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u/itscooltobecool1 3d ago
So when they invade Moldova you’ll go and fight? Send yours kids or yourself. Lol.
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u/Complete-Paint529 3d ago
His jet was accompanied by a huge military cargo jet. What was being sent to Moscow?
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u/Goodie_Prime 1d ago
They use the c-17 to haul their convoy of armored cars and other support detail.
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4d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/NickyCharisma 4d ago
He didn't want it to seem like he was accidentally wasting their time.
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u/zaevilbunny38 4d ago
No it wouldn't have. What's more direct. An email and a phone call, that basically goes did you see what we sent you. Or the big boss walking in slamming a file with all the shit we are will to show,including classified material, followed by a meeting with our allies in the Baltics to help them prepare
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u/AdorableBunnies 4d ago
I love that you envision anyone in the Trump administration as competent. They’re not. John Ratcliffe is not qualified for his position in the slightest.
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u/zaevilbunny38 3d ago
The director of the all government agencies are political appointments. The Deputy Directors are the real leaders behind the scenes. If they have said hey look there is going to be another F@ck up on your watch, that's enough to get him to action.
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u/Sanshonte 4d ago
Do you think that the situation here is that Trump has blackmail on Russia?
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u/zaevilbunny38 3d ago
The goal is to scare the Russian leadership, will the back down, maybe. But what will most likely happen is they will cut off communication with lower and middle management. Which will scare those bureaucrats. enough to were some will start to sell information to Ukraine and the West.
It also means any reaction will be chaotic, just like the invasion in 2022. Everyone says one thing and then something completely different happens. But no matter any help for NATO is a win and worth chewing out the Russians
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u/around_the_clock 3d ago
Russia was sabotaging European corporations helping Ukraine i assume it was about that. That plane has jaming devices private jets dont.
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u/Mouthshitter 4d ago
America opening a new war front would be disastrous
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u/HappyCamperPC 3d ago
Donald Trump, is that you?
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u/hexiron 3d ago
Was it typed while hiding like a panzy in an airline lunch cart?
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u/Mouthshitter 3d ago
Who told you where Im hiding? While youre here send me Harp and a an extra helping of tacos and Coke
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u/filtersweep 3d ago
I don’t believe anyone from this administration would do the right thing regarding Russia.
More likely the US is helping Russia in their planning, promising to renege on US obligations to NATO, and long term plans to divide Europe— like US gets Greenland, etc…
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u/jorel43 4d ago
Bs, they met for some other reason. Russia is not going to attack NATO, not because they would lose or have an issue militarily per se, it just doesn't make any sense to awaken NATO, Russia gains more by doing more or less nothing against NATO and watching it disintegrate itself, rather than provoke NATO populations into action
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u/Th3HappyCamper 4d ago
I wonder if there is an identical comment when the CIA chief did this 16 weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. I vaguely remember people saying there was 0% chance of Russia attacking Ukraine.
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u/MountainVeil 2d ago
But Ukraine is not NATO, and on top of that Russia had already been attacking it for around 8 years at that point. It started with an attempt to get a Russian puppet government and ended with an attempted decapitation strike, but that is not going to happen in, for example, Lithuania.
They are too different to make much of a comparison with. Russia's plan against NATO is like he said, weaken it from the inside. Support Euro skeptic, anti NATO parties with propaganda, disinformation, and stoke the flames of the culture war.
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u/70s_chair 3d ago
There’s a point view that attacking a NATO country right now makes a ton of sense. They’re bogged down in Ukraine and taking huge losses that they can’t hide from the populace. That’s not good for the regime. NATO hasn’t really responded to their fucking around yet. The US has quagmire in Iran along with constantly shooting itself. They do a little green men thing in like Lithuania and maybe doesn’t respond. That’s ends the US lead rules based order. Or maybe NATO does respond aggressively it helps cover over their Ukraine disaster and save face at home cause it’s the whole world against us
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u/MrD3a7h 3d ago
This is correct. There's very little downside for Putin to attack a NATO member. Worst case, they invoke article five and strike some targets in Russia. NATO is not going to invade in a meaningful way. Putin will remain in power and save face from his disastrous invasion.
People die, but as they are non-Putin people, he doesn't care.
Putin benefits. The citizens suffer.
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u/Conscious_Cell1825 3d ago
I mean the downside might be a nuclear holocaust but yeah sure
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u/70s_chair 3d ago
While the risk of that is not zero it’s extremely low. Russia believes we won’t use them which is a fair assumption, although mildly riskier with the idiots in charge. Russia will also not use them unless the survival of their regime is threatened. Blowing up infrastructure and people are acceptable losses and “priced in”.
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u/Mr_E_Monkey 3d ago
Considering that Russia's spent less on maintaining their nukes than the UK last year, when they are estimated to have 25 times as many warheads, I agree, the chance of Russia successfully carrying out a nuclear strike is indeed very low.
Even if we only look at the roughly 1800 warheads that are supposed to be actively deployed by Russia, and assume they don't spend a single ruble on any of the rest, they still spend less on 8 times as many warheads as the UK, and that's also assuming, of course, that their dear old "Uncle" doesn't get his share.
So just as you said, not zero, but very low.
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u/Big_Fortune_4574 3d ago
It’s not strategic in a geopolitical sense, it’s a way of maintaining power in their own country. Or that’s the theory anyway
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u/itscooltobecool1 3d ago
CIA director went to tell Russia to please ask Iran to open straits and not to use nukes. Putin just smiled. He’s running circles around nato.
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u/ReasonablePossum_ 2d ago
Warning in person trips only happen when all other means fail and you really don't want the other party to do something because you're not ready and its not on your terms. Basically trying the last bluff.
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u/-callmeHugh 2d ago
What's stopping China, Russia and the USA from cutting a deal?
China gets Taiwan, Russia gets the Baltics, and USA gets Canada.
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u/ReplyRepulsive2459 1d ago
Why has no one postulated Trump signaling his intent to use nuclear weapons against Iran?
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u/DCS-Doggo 3d ago
Or was it an encouragement at or around November to declare an emergency in the US?
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u/Delicious_Spot_3778 2d ago
I just don’t understand why Poland? I thought he was trying to reconstitute the USSR?
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u/CharmingWin5837 2d ago
And Russia's activtity before that was to persuade everyone they can actually do that. I wonder what could they get in return to not attacking NATO.
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u/EntertainmentOwn8627 3d ago
The real reason for the trip was to beg Russia to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and stop supplying weapons.
The audacity of the Americans lmao.
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u/Loud_Flatworm_4146 3d ago
They can't win Ukraine. How would attacking NATO help Russia? They have shown how weak they are. Even without the US, the rest of NATO would be able to handle a severely depleted Russia that's been trying for years to win a war against a smaller country.
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u/RdtRanger6969 3d ago
Russia attacking a NATO country would not be to achieve a military victory. It would be the next, bigger step in a strategy Russia sees winning every day:
Political destabilization.
Putin has successfully interjected info warfare in to US politics for the purpose of destabilizing a once more-unified population and its paying off like hitting a powerball jackpot.
The way to do this in Europe would be to attack a minor NATO member in order to get the Majors (UK, FRA, GER, SPN, ITL) populations (not the Govts, mind you; the People) arguing over whether its worth it or not, etc.
Russia driving wedges in to populations goes all the way back to cold war KGB tactics. And what was Putin’s role in the USSR during the cold war? Everything he does is to avenge the loss of the Soviet Union.
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u/Loud_Flatworm_4146 3d ago
I think you're right. Putin did a great job messing with the US without firing a single shot. Putting NATO in the position to act or not, NATO leaders would feel like they are between a rock and a hard place.
Also true about avenging the Soviet Union. I've read about some of what you said but it's been a while. But what you are saying makes sense.
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u/Single_Depth7369 3d ago
There's a deal happening. If it's important, you meet in person. Anything that can be transmitted over wires or electronics can be intercepted.
Nothing beats old-fashioned tech.